The Negro Leagues are Major Leagues. We have dramatically expanded our coverage of the Negro Leagues and historical Black major league players. Read our Announcement

2021 Major League Baseball Win Probability

Previous Season

Other Leagues: AL, NL

Become a Stathead & surf this site ad-free.

Team Win Probability*

Team Win Probability* Table
Tm	RA/G	PtchR	PtchW	Plays	WPA	WPA+	WPA-	aLI	WPA/LI	Clutch	cWPA	cWPA+	cWPA-	acLI	cClutch	RE24	REW	boLI	RE24/boLI	LevHi	LevMd	LevLo
Arizona Diamondbacks	5.51	-136.5	-12.8	6448	-18.7	95.1	-113.8	.91	-13.7	-6.8	-2.1%	14.1%	-16.2%	.22	-6.7%	-164.8	-15.4	0.96	-162.2	151	132	268
Atlanta Braves	4.07	88.0	9.1	6149	8.3	111.8	-103.5	1.05	9.7	-1.8	6.2%	80.1%	-73.8%	1.25	-0.3%	95.8	9.8	0.94	117.9	221	125	215
Baltimore Orioles	5.90	-172.5	-16.0	6437	-16.1	97.0	-113.0	.91	-14.5	-3.1	-0.1%	16.3%	-16.4%	.25	1.5%	-207.5	-18.7	0.95	-173.6	156	135	253
Boston Red Sox	4.62	62.2	6.6	6357	5.3	113.2	-107.9	1.01	1.7	3.6	4.3%	100.6%	-96.3%	1.50	2.1%	33.9	3.8	0.95	28.3	198	134	218
Chicago Cubs	5.18	-92.1	-8.5	6384	-5.7	103.8	-109.5	.96	-10.7	4.8	2.7%	43.9%	-41.1%	.66	7.1%	-105.5	-9.6	0.97	-125.8	175	131	264
Chicago White Sox	3.93	95.5	10.0	6095	7.4	103.7	-96.3	.98	9.1	-1.6	4.4%	55.1%	-50.7%	.87	0.0%	99.6	10.4	0.93	106.8	154	131	212
Cincinnati Reds	4.69	57.0	6.1	6410	7.5	113.6	-106.2	1.01	2.9	4.5	3.7%	67.9%	-64.3%	1.01	1.6%	34.7	3.6	0.95	37.6	189	136	230
Cleveland Indians	4.49	13.1	1.7	6124	4.0	103.9	-99.9	.97	3.5	0.5	1.4%	51.0%	-49.6%	.81	0.3%	20.7	2.5	0.93	31.7	155	113	247
Colorado Rockies	4.94	3.3	0.6	6224	-2.9	107.8	-110.7	1.01	-0.7	-2.2	-1.9%	11.9%	-13.7%	.20	-9.6%	-26.2	-2.1	0.95	-5.2	172	126	226
Detroit Tigers	4.67	-15.4	-1.1	6368	2.8	111.1	-108.3	1.02	-5.2	7.9	-0.5%	17.2%	-17.8%	.27	0.8%	-15.6	-1.2	0.96	-47.6	167	147	248
Houston Astros	4.06	87.2	9.0	6227	9.6	109.5	-99.9	.99	11.2	-1.5	8.2%	77.0%	-68.8%	1.16	0.6%	110.9	11.5	0.94	127.4	166	118	210
Kansas City Royals	4.86	-1.6	0.4	6300	-3.0	103.7	-106.7	.96	-0.9	-2.2	-1.3%	27.7%	-29.0%	.43	-0.2%	-31.8	-2.4	0.96	-7.4	165	115	270
Los Angeles Angels	4.96	-29.3	-2.3	6382	0.1	103.9	-103.8	.94	-1.4	1.5	-1.0%	31.5%	-32.5%	.48	-0.6%	-50.9	-4.2	0.96	-19.2	173	114	267
Los Angeles Dodgers	3.46	168.9	17.6	6158	21.1	115.0	-94.0	1.06	17.0	2.9	14.1%	86.7%	-72.7%	1.34	0.3%	193.2	20.6	0.92	187.5	201	177	214
Miami Marlins	4.33	29.2	3.5	6214	0.5	109.1	-108.6	1.03	3.9	-3.4	0.8%	29.2%	-28.4%	.46	-0.9%	21.5	2.8	0.95	38.1	185	140	257
Milwaukee Brewers	3.85	119.2	13.0	6199	16.6	110.1	-93.5	1.01	14.4	2.0	11.4%	65.6%	-54.2%	1.00	2.8%	133.2	14.5	0.93	158.0	188	107	223
Minnesota Twins	5.15	-92.5	-8.2	6255	-2.9	108.4	-111.4	1.01	-6.0	3.1	-1.5%	16.5%	-18.0%	.26	-3.0%	-84.3	-7.4	0.93	-72.1	175	138	195
New York Mets	4.12	16.5	2.7	5954	5.0	107.3	-102.3	1.03	4.7	0.1	3.5%	77.6%	-74.1%	1.25	0.2%	28.3	4.1	0.93	44.6	175	148	205
New York Yankees	4.13	80.8	8.3	6206	9.7	117.3	-107.6	1.07	7.8	1.2	8.4%	82.3%	-73.9%	1.24	2.0%	92.2	9.7	0.93	103.7	219	125	159
Oakland Athletics	4.24	16.6	1.9	6211	3.0	108.4	-105.5	.99	3.9	-0.9	2.2%	83.7%	-81.5%	1.27	-1.3%	51.5	5.7	0.92	55.5	148	119	227
Philadelphia Phillies	4.60	-24.6	-1.8	6192	-1.2	108.9	-110.2	1.02	0.5	-1.7	0.6%	81.9%	-81.4%	1.28	0.4%	-20.9	-1.2	0.94	-5.6	165	123	222
Pittsburgh Pirates	5.14	-115.9	-10.8	6296	-10.0	96.2	-106.2	.91	-9.9	-1.2	-0.1%	14.9%	-15.0%	.23	0.2%	-118.4	-10.9	0.96	-126.1	135	155	271
San Diego Padres	4.37	-31.1	-2.6	6229	2.0	105.0	-103.1	.97	0.3	1.8	3.0%	67.8%	-64.8%	1.04	1.9%	9.5	1.4	0.94	-2.2	156	192	263
Seattle Mariners	4.62	-18.2	-1.2	6286	7.5	113.1	-105.6	1.01	0.1	7.3	1.8%	69.8%	-68.0%	1.05	1.7%	-3.6	0.4	0.94	6.3	212	144	214
San Francisco Giants	3.67	135.3	13.9	6143	18.2	115.9	-97.7	1.04	16.7	0.8	13.2%	83.0%	-69.8%	1.24	0.6%	158.2	16.6	0.92	185.5	213	154	223
St. Louis Cardinals	4.15	-7.7	-0.3	6190	8.3	110.1	-101.8	1.02	4.3	3.8	4.3%	56.2%	-51.9%	.88	2.0%	37.3	4.4	0.97	46.7	166	144	232
Tampa Bay Rays	4.02	51.5	5.7	6181	11.1	110.5	-99.4	1.00	10.9	0.1	8.1%	72.1%	-64.0%	1.09	1.4%	95.4	10.5	0.91	112.0	180	148	190
Texas Rangers	5.03	-57.9	-5.1	6273	-4.3	97.6	-101.9	.91	-5.4	0.7	-0.2%	18.0%	-18.1%	.28	0.2%	-65.1	-5.6	0.94	-61.5	130	117	236
Toronto Blue Jays	4.09	77.5	8.1	6073	6.7	101.1	-94.5	.93	7.0	0.1	3.0%	62.0%	-59.0%	.96	-1.2%	89.8	9.4	0.92	88.9	156	114	250
Washington Nationals	5.06	-122.1	-11.5	6242	-13.8	103.4	-117.2	1.01	-7.8	-5.9	-2.2%	30.7%	-32.9%	.49	-3.4%	-117.2	-11.1	0.95	-105.6	182	139	232
League Average	4.53	6	1	6240	3	107	-105	.99	2	1	3%	53%	-50%	.81	2%	10	2	0	19	174	135	231
	4.53	184.2	35.8	187207	75.9	3215.9	-3140.1	.99	53.8	22.7	94.5%	1592.2%	-1497.8%	.81	59.3%	293.6	51.8	0.94	562.4	5228	4041	6941
Tm	RA/G	PtchR	PtchW	Plays	WPA	WPA+	WPA-	aLI	WPA/LI	Clutch	cWPA	cWPA+	cWPA-	acLI	cClutch	RE24	REW	boLI	RE24/boLI	LevHi	LevMd	LevLo

* - Disclaimer & Completeness Note

* Many detailed statistics are based on play-by-play accounts accumulated by Retrosheet. These totals may be incomplete (3.6% of all plays from 1916 to 1972 are missing or have incomplete accounts, click link for year and team summary of data completeness) for some players prior to 1973 and even complete seasons may not match the official totals due to errors in both the official totals and the play-by-play accounts. Pre-1954 seasons have a substantial numbers of games missing play-by-play accounts and should be viewed as essentially incomplete.

2021 Major League Baseball Win Probability

Team Win Probability*

* - Disclaimer & Completeness Note

Player Win Probability