MLB playoff odds are based on 1000 simulations of the rest of the season and playoffs. The team's estimated quality is determined by their performance over their last 100 regular season games (even if it spans seasons) and includes a regression to the mean factor. These results are based on standings through 2021-04-19. This page does not update during the postseason.

Most Likely Scenarios

Playoff Odds Table
Current Remaining Average 90% Confidence Change
Tm Lg D SRS rSOS W L W L W L Best Worst Post WC Div LDS LCS Pennant Win WS 1 Day 7 Days 30 Days
NL East
1Atlanta BravesNLE0.90.17980.365.787.374.797-6578-8469.7%20.4%49.3%59.9%32.1%14.1%7.7%-0.5%-10.7%
2New York MetsNLE0.40.27477.572.584.576.594-6774-8750.8%22.9%27.9%41.5%19.1%7.3%3.7%+4.1%+26.0%
3Philadelphia PhilliesNLE0.10.18872.673.480.681.490-7271-9124.3%13.4%10.9%17.5%7.8%2.5%0.9%-2.8%-16.5%
4Washington NationalsNLE0.30.15975.572.580.581.590-7270-9225.1%14.9%10.2%16.7%7.7%1.7%0.5%-5.3%-19.8%
5Miami MarlinsNLE-0.30.27867.878.274.886.284-7765-965.5%3.8%1.7%3.4%1.7%0.2%0.1%-0.2%+4.3%
NL Central
1Milwaukee BrewersNLC0.2-0.19775.370.784.377.794-6876-8651.4%15.2%36.2%44.1%18.1%5.9%2.8%+3.0%+7.0%
2St. Louis CardinalsNLC0.2-0.18875.870.283.878.293-6974-8849.9%14.4%35.5%43.8%19.5%7.3%3.6%+10.7%+6.0%
3Cincinnati RedsNLC-0.30.09670.476.779.482.789-7369-9323.4%8.3%15.1%18.9%6.7%2.0%0.8%-1.2%+4.7%
4Chicago CubsNLC0.00.06973.373.779.382.789-7370-9219.9%6.9%13.0%16.2%7.1%1.3%0.6%-4.2%-8.9%
5Pittsburgh PiratesNLC-1.50.17958.387.765.396.775-8756-1060.3%0.1%0.2%0.3%0.1%0.1%<0.1%-0.3%+0.3%
NL West
1Los Angeles DodgersNLW2.1-0.113493.451.6106.455.6116-4697-65>99.9%1.1%98.9%99.5%68.3%51.7%37.4%0.0%+0.3%
2San Diego PadresNLW0.50.110875.868.385.876.395-6776-8657.5%56.5%1.0%30.1%10.0%4.9%2.7%-3.7%+1.8%
3San Francisco GiantsNLW-0.20.210669.077.079.083.089-7369-9315.6%15.5%0.1%5.4%1.2%0.9%0.3%+0.6%+7.4%
4Arizona DiamondbacksNLW-0.20.261069.276.875.286.885-7766-964.6%4.6%<0.1%1.8%0.5%0.1%<0.1%-1.0%-3.2%
5Colorado RockiesNLW-0.60.141266.779.370.791.380-8261-1012.0%2.0%<0.1%0.9%0.1%<0.1%<0.1%+0.8%+1.3%
Current Remaining Average 90% Confidence Change
Tm Lg D SRS rSOS W L W L W L Best Worst Post WC Div LDS LCS Pennant Win WS 1 Day 7 Days 30 Days
AL East
1Tampa Bay RaysALE0.7-0.19880.664.489.672.499-6381-8175.9%18.9%57.0%66.9%37.0%20.5%8.2%+1.6%+4.4%
2New York YankeesALE0.8-0.151081.565.586.575.596-6677-8558.1%28.0%30.1%45.6%24.4%14.1%5.8%+3.5%-18.4%
3Boston Red SoxALE-0.30.011669.675.580.681.590-7271-9119.4%12.3%7.1%12.1%5.0%1.6%0.4%+4.8%+9.6%
4Toronto Blue JaysALE-0.10.17971.374.778.383.788-7469-9313.6%9.4%4.2%8.1%4.4%2.2%0.6%+0.1%+3.4%
5Baltimore OriolesALE-0.30.17969.077.076.086.086-7667-956.6%5.0%1.6%3.1%0.8%0.2%0.2%+1.3%-1.6%
AL Central
1Cleveland IndiansALC0.4-0.28779.267.887.274.897-6577-8562.5%22.4%40.1%51.6%26.7%13.1%4.4%+2.1%+8.0%
2Chicago White SoxALC0.5-0.28978.366.786.375.796-6677-8556.9%22.3%34.6%47.0%23.0%11.4%4.1%-12.1%+11.5%
3Minnesota TwinsALC0.4-0.26878.267.884.275.894-6674-8644.1%23.3%20.8%33.3%18.2%8.4%3.0%-2.1%-26.6%
4Kansas City RoyalsALC-0.6-0.19668.578.577.584.587-7568-9411.4%7.0%4.4%7.4%2.3%0.5%0.1%-3.8%+8.7%
5Detroit TigersALC-1.4-0.161060.685.466.695.476-8657-1050.3%0.2%0.1%0.2%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%-0.2%+0.3%
AL West
1Oakland AthleticsALW0.4-0.39779.766.388.773.399-6379-8374.6%18.7%55.9%66.1%32.5%16.2%6.9%-2.7%+16.3%
2Houston AstrosALW0.4-0.27879.467.686.475.696-6677-8561.8%24.6%37.2%49.1%23.3%10.5%5.0%+5.5%-22.0%
3Seattle MarinersALW-0.8-0.111665.879.276.885.287-7567-958.2%4.5%3.7%4.8%1.6%0.9%0.2%+3.0%+6.8%
4Los Angeles AngelsALW-0.7-0.18667.378.775.384.786-7466-945.4%3.0%2.4%3.8%0.8%0.4%<0.1%-1.3%-1.3%
5Texas RangersALW-1.1-0.18962.282.870.291.880-8260-1021.2%0.4%0.8%0.9%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%+0.3%+0.9%