MLB playoff odds are based on 1000 simulations of the rest of the season and playoffs. The team's estimated quality is determined by their performance over their last 100 regular season games (even if it spans seasons) and includes a regression to the mean factor. These results are based on standings through 2024-09-30. This page does not update during the postseason.
Most Likely Scenarios
First Round Bye | Wild Card Round | |||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Lg | Top Seed | Division Winner | Division Winner | Wild Card | Wild Card | Wild Card | ||
NL | Los Angeles Dodgers | Philadelphia Phillies | Milwaukee Brewers | San Diego Padres | Arizona Diamondbacks | Atlanta Braves | ||
AL | New York Yankees | Cleveland Indians | Houston Astros | Baltimore Orioles | Kansas City Royals | Detroit Tigers |
Playoff Odds
Current | Remaining | Average | 90% Confidence | Change | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Tm | Lg | D | SRS | rSOS | W | L | W | L | W | L | Best | Worst | Post | WC | Div | LDS | LCS | Pennant | Win WS | 1 Day | 7 Days | 30 Days | |||||||
NL East | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
1 | Philadelphia Phillies | NL | E | 0.3 | 95 | 67 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 95.0 | 67.0 | 95-67 | 95-67 | 100.0% | 0.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 44.1% | 20.5% | 10.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | +0.2% | |||||||
2 | Atlanta Braves | NL | E | 0.6 | 89 | 73 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 89.0 | 73.0 | 89-73 | 89-73 | 100.0% | 100.0% | 0.0% | 48.7% | 25.0% | 12.2% | 7.2% | +26.8% | +73.8% | +26.7% | |||||||
3 | New York Mets | NL | E | 0.9 | 89 | 73 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 89.0 | 73.0 | 89-73 | 89-73 | 100.0% | 100.0% | 0.0% | 47.6% | 26.7% | 14.5% | 9.3% | +23.4% | +12.1% | +71.7% | |||||||
4 | Washington Nationals | NL | E | -0.6 | 71 | 91 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 71.0 | 91.0 | 71-91 | 71-91 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |||||||
5 | Miami Marlins | NL | E | -1.0 | 62 | 100 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 62.0 | 100.0 | 62-100 | 62-100 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |||||||
NL Central | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
1 | Milwaukee Brewers | NL | C | 0.8 | 93 | 69 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 93.0 | 69.0 | 93-69 | 93-69 | 100.0% | 0.0% | 100.0% | 52.4% | 29.2% | 14.5% | 8.9% | 0.0% | 0.0% | +0.2% | |||||||
2 | St. Louis Cardinals | NL | C | 0.0 | 83 | 79 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 83.0 | 79.0 | 83-79 | 83-79 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | -1.3% | |||||||
3 | Chicago Cubs | NL | C | 0.7 | 83 | 79 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 83.0 | 79.0 | 83-79 | 83-79 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | -13.6% | |||||||
4 | Cincinnati Reds | NL | C | 0.0 | 77 | 85 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 77.0 | 85.0 | 77-85 | 77-85 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |||||||
5 | Pittsburgh Pirates | NL | C | -0.3 | 76 | 86 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 76.0 | 86.0 | 76-86 | 76-86 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |||||||
NL West | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
1 | Los Angeles Dodgers | NL | W | 0.7 | 98 | 64 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 98.0 | 64.0 | 98-64 | 98-64 | 100.0% | 0.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 48.7% | 23.3% | 13.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |||||||
2 | San Diego Padres | NL | W | 0.8 | 93 | 69 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 93.0 | 69.0 | 93-69 | 93-69 | 100.0% | 100.0% | 0.0% | 51.3% | 26.3% | 15.0% | 8.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | +7.5% | |||||||
3 | Arizona Diamondbacks | NL | W | 1.0 | 89 | 73 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 89.0 | 73.0 | 89-73 | 89-73 | <0.1% | <0.1% | 0.0% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | -50.2% | -85.9% | -90.9% | |||||||
4 | San Francisco Giants | NL | W | 0.4 | 80 | 82 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 80.0 | 82.0 | 80-82 | 80-82 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | -0.5% | |||||||
5 | Colorado Rockies | NL | W | -1.3 | 61 | 101 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 61.0 | 101.0 | 61-101 | 61-101 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |||||||
Current | Remaining | Average | 90% Confidence | Change | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
Tm | Lg | D | SRS | rSOS | W | L | W | L | W | L | Best | Worst | Post | WC | Div | LDS | LCS | Pennant | Win WS | 1 Day | 7 Days | 30 Days | |||||||
AL East | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
1 | New York Yankees | AL | E | 0.2 | 94 | 68 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 94.0 | 68.0 | 94-68 | 94-68 | 100.0% | 0.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 52.6% | 22.9% | 9.8% | 0.0% | 0.0% | +0.1% | |||||||
2 | Baltimore Orioles | AL | E | 0.0 | 91 | 71 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 91.0 | 71.0 | 91-71 | 91-71 | 100.0% | 100.0% | 0.0% | 50.2% | 22.1% | 9.7% | 3.9% | 0.0% | +0.1% | +1.2% | |||||||
3 | Boston Red Sox | AL | E | -0.3 | 81 | 81 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 81.0 | 81.0 | 81-81 | 81-81 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | -0.2% | -14.5% | |||||||
4 | Tampa Bay Rays | AL | E | 0.0 | 80 | 82 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 80.0 | 82.0 | 80-82 | 80-82 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | -0.7% | -1.4% | |||||||
5 | Toronto Blue Jays | AL | E | -0.3 | 74 | 88 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 74.0 | 88.0 | 74-88 | 74-88 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | -0.6% | |||||||
AL Central | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
1 | Cleveland Guardians | AL | C | 0.1 | 92 | 69 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 92.4 | 69.6 | 93-69 | 92-70 | 100.0% | 0.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 43.2% | 22.4% | 7.8% | 0.0% | 0.0% | +2.5% | |||||||
2 | Kansas City Royals | AL | C | 0.1 | 86 | 76 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 86.0 | 76.0 | 86-76 | 86-76 | 100.0% | 100.0% | 0.0% | 49.8% | 25.3% | 12.3% | 5.2% | 0.0% | +35.9% | +13.4% | |||||||
3 | Detroit Tigers | AL | C | 0.3 | 86 | 76 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 86.0 | 76.0 | 86-76 | 86-76 | 100.0% | 100.0% | 0.0% | 46.1% | 25.1% | 13.9% | 6.1% | 0.0% | +22.7% | +90.0% | |||||||
4 | Minnesota Twins | AL | C | 0.0 | 82 | 80 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 82.0 | 80.0 | 82-80 | 82-80 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | -39.9% | -83.2% | |||||||
5 | Chicago White Sox | AL | C | -1.7 | 41 | 121 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 41.0 | 121.0 | 41-121 | 41-121 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |||||||
AL West | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
1 | Houston Astros | AL | W | 0.7 | 88 | 73 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 88.6 | 73.4 | 89-73 | 88-74 | 100.0% | 0.0% | 100.0% | 53.9% | 31.7% | 18.8% | 10.0% | 0.0% | +0.1% | +2.5% | |||||||
2 | Seattle Mariners | AL | W | 0.4 | 85 | 77 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 85.0 | 77.0 | 85-77 | 85-77 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | -18.0% | -10.0% | |||||||
3 | Texas Rangers | AL | W | -0.8 | 78 | 84 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 78.0 | 84.0 | 78-84 | 78-84 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |||||||
4 | Oakland Athletics | AL | W | -0.6 | 69 | 93 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 69.0 | 93.0 | 69-93 | 69-93 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |||||||
5 | Los Angeles Angels | AL | W | -1.1 | 63 | 99 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 63.0 | 99.0 | 63-99 | 63-99 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
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