MLB playoff odds are based on 1000 simulations of the rest of the season and playoffs. The team's estimated quality is determined by their performance over their last 100 regular season games (even if it spans seasons) and includes a regression to the mean factor. These results are based on standings through 2024-09-21. This page does not update during the postseason.
Most Likely Scenarios
| First Round Bye | Wild Card Round | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lg | Top Seed | Division Winner | Division Winner | Wild Card | Wild Card | Wild Card | ||
| NL | Los Angeles Dodgers | Philadelphia Phillies | Milwaukee Brewers | San Diego Padres | Arizona Diamondbacks | New York Mets | ||
| AL | New York Yankees | Cleveland Guardians | Houston Astros | Baltimore Orioles | Kansas City Royals | Minnesota Twins | ||
Playoff Odds
| Current | Remaining | Average | 90% Confidence | Change | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tm | Lg | D | SRS | rSOS | W | L | W | L | W | L | Best | Worst | Post | WC | Div | LDS | LCS | Pennant | Win WS | 1 Day | 7 Days | 30 Days | |||||||
| NL East | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 1 | Philadelphia Phillies | NL | E | 0.5 | 0.0 | 92 | 63 | 3.7 | 3.3 | 95.7 | 66.3 | 98-64 | 94-68 | 100.0% | <0.1% | >99.9% | 98.8% | 45.7% | 19.3% | 8.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% | +0.1% | ||||||
| 2 | New York Mets | NL | E | 0.9 | 0.6 | 86 | 69 | 3.6 | 3.4 | 89.6 | 72.4 | 92-70 | 88-74 | 81.0% | 81.0% | <0.1% | 42.3% | 23.1% | 12.5% | 6.5% | +0.6% | +22.5% | +49.1% | ||||||
| 3 | Atlanta Braves | NL | E | 0.5 | 0.2 | 84 | 71 | 3.6 | 3.4 | 87.6 | 74.4 | 90-72 | 85-77 | 21.6% | 21.6% | 0.0% | 10.3% | 5.7% | 3.2% | 2.2% | -4.1% | -39.3% | -42.8% | ||||||
| 4 | Washington Nationals | NL | E | -0.8 | 0.3 | 69 | 86 | 3.0 | 4.0 | 72.0 | 90.0 | 74-88 | 70-92 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | ||||||
| 5 | Miami Marlins | NL | E | -1.3 | 0.1 | 57 | 98 | 2.8 | 4.2 | 59.8 | 102.2 | 62-100 | 58-104 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | ||||||
| NL Central | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 1 | Milwaukee Brewers | NL | C | 0.7 | 0.4 | 88 | 67 | 3.7 | 3.3 | 91.7 | 70.3 | 94-68 | 90-72 | 100.0% | 0.0% | 100.0% | 48.6% | 26.9% | 13.1% | 7.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | ||||||
| 2 | Chicago Cubs | NL | C | 0.6 | 0.2 | 79 | 76 | 3.7 | 3.3 | 82.7 | 79.3 | 85-77 | 81-81 | <0.1% | <0.1% | 0.0% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | 0.0% | -0.4% | -4.2% | ||||||
| 3 | St. Louis Cardinals | NL | C | -0.2 | -0.5 | 78 | 77 | 3.6 | 3.4 | 81.6 | 80.4 | 84-78 | 79-83 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | -2.2% | ||||||
| 4 | Cincinnati Reds | NL | C | 0.2 | 0.3 | 76 | 80 | 2.9 | 3.1 | 78.9 | 83.1 | 81-81 | 77-85 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | -1.9% | ||||||
| 5 | Pittsburgh Pirates | NL | C | -0.2 | 0.5 | 72 | 83 | 3.2 | 3.8 | 75.2 | 86.8 | 77-85 | 73-89 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | -0.7% | ||||||
| NL West | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 1 | Los Angeles Dodgers | NL | W | 0.6 | -0.4 | 92 | 63 | 3.9 | 3.1 | 95.9 | 66.1 | 98-64 | 94-68 | 100.0% | 5.8% | 94.2% | 96.8% | 45.7% | 24.0% | 12.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | +0.1% | ||||||
| 2 | San Diego Padres | NL | W | 0.8 | 0.4 | 89 | 66 | 3.8 | 3.2 | 92.8 | 69.2 | 95-67 | 91-71 | 99.9% | 94.5% | 5.4% | 53.9% | 26.7% | 14.1% | 8.7% | +0.1% | +3.6% | +5.1% | ||||||
| 3 | Arizona Diamondbacks | NL | W | 1.0 | 0.5 | 87 | 68 | 3.6 | 3.4 | 90.6 | 71.4 | 93-69 | 89-73 | 97.5% | 97.1% | 0.4% | 49.3% | 26.2% | 13.8% | 8.6% | +3.4% | +13.6% | +4.2% | ||||||
| 4 | San Francisco Giants | NL | W | 0.1 | 0.3 | 76 | 79 | 3.5 | 3.5 | 79.5 | 82.5 | 82-80 | 77-85 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | -6.8% | ||||||
| 5 | Colorado Rockies | NL | W | -1.3 | 0.3 | 60 | 95 | 2.9 | 4.1 | 62.9 | 99.1 | 65-97 | 61-101 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | ||||||
| Current | Remaining | Average | 90% Confidence | Change | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Tm | Lg | D | SRS | rSOS | W | L | W | L | W | L | Best | Worst | Post | WC | Div | LDS | LCS | Pennant | Win WS | 1 Day | 7 Days | 30 Days | |||||||
| AL East | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 1 | New York Yankees | AL | E | 0.4 | -0.2 | 91 | 64 | 3.7 | 3.3 | 94.7 | 67.3 | 97-65 | 93-69 | 100.0% | 1.4% | 98.6% | 99.2% | 51.5% | 26.6% | 11.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | +0.9% | ||||||
| 2 | Baltimore Orioles | AL | E | 0.0 | 0.3 | 86 | 69 | 3.5 | 3.5 | 89.5 | 72.5 | 92-70 | 87-75 | 99.8% | 98.4% | 1.4% | 49.6% | 23.8% | 10.7% | 5.1% | 0.0% | -0.1% | +4.1% | ||||||
| 3 | Tampa Bay Rays | AL | E | 0.0 | -0.1 | 77 | 78 | 3.6 | 3.4 | 80.6 | 81.4 | 83-79 | 78-84 | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% | +0.2% | 0.0% | -2.0% | ||||||
| 4 | Boston Red Sox | AL | E | -0.3 | 0.0 | 76 | 78 | 3.8 | 4.2 | 79.8 | 82.2 | 82-80 | 77-85 | <0.1% | <0.1% | 0.0% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | 0.0% | -3.3% | -33.9% | ||||||
| 5 | Toronto Blue Jays | AL | E | -0.2 | -0.7 | 73 | 82 | 3.8 | 3.2 | 76.8 | 85.2 | 79-83 | 75-87 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | -0.1% | ||||||
| AL Central | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 1 | Cleveland Guardians | AL | C | 0.1 | 0.4 | 90 | 66 | 2.9 | 3.1 | 92.9 | 69.1 | 95-67 | 91-71 | 100.0% | 0.0% | 100.0% | 97.8% | 43.4% | 19.6% | 8.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | +6.7% | ||||||
| 2 | Kansas City Royals | AL | C | 0.0 | -0.1 | 82 | 73 | 3.5 | 3.5 | 85.5 | 76.5 | 88-74 | 83-79 | 69.0% | 69.0% | 0.0% | 31.2% | 13.3% | 5.3% | 2.2% | -13.2% | -29.7% | -12.7% | ||||||
| 3 | Minnesota Twins | AL | C | 0.3 | -0.6 | 81 | 73 | 4.4 | 3.6 | 85.4 | 76.6 | 88-74 | 83-79 | 61.0% | 61.0% | 0.0% | 30.7% | 17.3% | 9.2% | 3.1% | -6.4% | -12.9% | -28.8% | ||||||
| 4 | Detroit Tigers | AL | C | 0.2 | -0.8 | 81 | 74 | 4.0 | 3.0 | 85.0 | 77.0 | 87-75 | 83-79 | 52.2% | 52.2% | 0.0% | 25.1% | 12.3% | 6.6% | 3.4% | +12.1% | +39.5% | +51.2% | ||||||
| 5 | Chicago White Sox | AL | C | -1.9 | -0.2 | 36 | 119 | 2.6 | 4.4 | 38.6 | 123.4 | 41-121 | 37-125 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | ||||||
| AL West | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 1 | Houston Astros | AL | W | 0.8 | 0.1 | 85 | 70 | 3.8 | 3.2 | 88.8 | 73.2 | 91-71 | 87-75 | >99.9% | <0.1% | >99.9% | 58.4% | 34.4% | 20.2% | 10.9% | +0.2% | +2.1% | +3.5% | ||||||
| 2 | Seattle Mariners | AL | W | 0.4 | 0.0 | 80 | 75 | 3.7 | 3.3 | 83.7 | 78.3 | 86-76 | 82-80 | 17.7% | 17.7% | <0.1% | 7.7% | 3.8% | 1.6% | 1.0% | +7.1% | +4.5% | +11.1% | ||||||
| 3 | Texas Rangers | AL | W | -0.7 | -0.6 | 73 | 82 | 3.5 | 3.5 | 76.5 | 85.5 | 79-83 | 74-88 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | -0.1% | 0.0% | ||||||
| 4 | Oakland Athletics | AL | W | -0.5 | -0.1 | 67 | 88 | 3.3 | 3.7 | 70.3 | 91.7 | 72-90 | 68-94 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | ||||||
| 5 | Los Angeles Angels | AL | W | -1.0 | -1.0 | 62 | 93 | 3.5 | 3.5 | 65.5 | 96.5 | 68-94 | 63-99 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | ||||||
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