MLB playoff odds are based on 1000 simulations of the rest of the season and playoffs. The team's estimated quality is determined by their performance over their last 100 regular season games (even if it spans seasons) and includes a regression to the mean factor. These results are based on standings through 2023-09-16. This page does not update during the postseason.
Most Likely Scenarios
| First Round Bye | Wild Card Round | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lg | Top Seed | Division Winner | Division Winner | Wild Card | Wild Card | Wild Card | ||
| NL | Atlanta Braves | Los Angeles Dodgers | Milwaukee Brewers | Philadelphia Phillies | Chicago Cubs | Cincinnati Reds | ||
| AL | Baltimore Orioles | Houston Astros | Minnesota Twins | Tampa Bay Rays | Texas Rangers | Toronto Blue Jays | ||
Playoff Odds
| Current | Remaining | Average | 90% Confidence | Change | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tm | Lg | D | SRS | rSOS | W | L | W | L | W | L | Best | Worst | Post | WC | Div | LDS | LCS | Pennant | Win WS | 1 Day | 7 Days | 30 Days | |||||||
| NL East | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 1 | Atlanta Braves | NL | E | 1.6 | -0.2 | 96 | 52 | 8.4 | 5.6 | 104.4 | 57.6 | 107-55 | 101-61 | 100.0% | 0.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 60.3% | 32.7% | 20.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | ||||||
| 2 | Philadelphia Phillies | NL | E | 1.1 | 0.1 | 81 | 67 | 7.8 | 6.2 | 88.8 | 73.2 | 92-70 | 86-76 | 98.7% | 98.7% | 0.0% | 61.9% | 27.3% | 14.8% | 8.4% | -0.1% | -0.2% | +5.6% | ||||||
| 3 | Miami Marlins | NL | E | 0.0 | 0.1 | 77 | 72 | 6.5 | 6.5 | 83.5 | 78.5 | 86-76 | 81-81 | 31.8% | 31.8% | 0.0% | 12.2% | 4.0% | 1.3% | 0.7% | +8.0% | +10.1% | -2.4% | ||||||
| 4 | New York Mets | NL | E | 0.0 | 0.6 | 68 | 80 | 6.6 | 7.4 | 74.6 | 87.4 | 78-84 | 72-90 | <0.1% | <0.1% | 0.0% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | -0.1% | ||||||
| 5 | Washington Nationals | NL | E | -1.0 | 0.8 | 65 | 84 | 5.2 | 7.8 | 70.2 | 91.8 | 73-89 | 67-95 | <0.1% | <0.1% | 0.0% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | -0.1% | ||||||
| NL Central | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 1 | Milwaukee Brewers | NL | C | 0.7 | -0.4 | 84 | 64 | 8.0 | 6.0 | 92.0 | 70.0 | 95-67 | 89-73 | >99.9% | 1.3% | 98.7% | 56.9% | 26.8% | 11.3% | 5.4% | 0.0% | +0.3% | +46.5% | ||||||
| 2 | Chicago Cubs | NL | C | 0.5 | 0.0 | 78 | 71 | 6.9 | 6.1 | 84.9 | 77.1 | 88-74 | 82-80 | 66.5% | 65.5% | 1.0% | 28.9% | 11.1% | 3.9% | 2.0% | -11.8% | -23.0% | -5.1% | ||||||
| 3 | Cincinnati Reds | NL | C | 0.1 | -0.3 | 78 | 72 | 6.4 | 5.6 | 84.4 | 77.6 | 87-75 | 82-80 | 55.1% | 54.8% | 0.3% | 21.7% | 7.1% | 3.3% | 1.8% | +8.2% | +36.9% | +8.6% | ||||||
| 4 | Pittsburgh Pirates | NL | C | -0.9 | 0.4 | 69 | 80 | 5.4 | 7.6 | 74.4 | 87.6 | 77-85 | 72-90 | <0.1% | <0.1% | 0.0% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | 0.0% | -0.1% | 0.0% | ||||||
| 5 | St. Louis Cardinals | NL | C | -0.9 | 0.6 | 65 | 83 | 5.7 | 8.3 | 70.7 | 91.3 | 74-88 | 68-94 | <0.1% | <0.1% | 0.0% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | -0.1% | ||||||
| NL West | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 1 | Los Angeles Dodgers | NL | W | 1.2 | -0.5 | 90 | 57 | 9.0 | 6.0 | 99.0 | 63.0 | 102-60 | 96-66 | 100.0% | 0.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 57.9% | 31.3% | 16.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | ||||||
| 2 | Arizona Diamondbacks | NL | W | -0.3 | -0.2 | 78 | 72 | 5.9 | 6.1 | 83.9 | 78.1 | 87-75 | 81-81 | 43.1% | 43.1% | <0.1% | 16.0% | 4.9% | 1.0% | 0.3% | +8.1% | -7.9% | +20.8% | ||||||
| 3 | San Francisco Giants | NL | W | 0.0 | 0.7 | 75 | 74 | 5.9 | 7.1 | 80.9 | 81.1 | 84-78 | 78-84 | 4.7% | 4.7% | 0.0% | 2.3% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.4% | -12.3% | -16.0% | -54.0% | ||||||
| 4 | San Diego Padres | NL | W | 0.8 | -1.0 | 71 | 78 | 7.9 | 5.1 | 78.9 | 83.1 | 82-80 | 76-86 | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | -0.1% | -0.1% | -19.7% | ||||||
| 5 | Colorado Rockies | NL | W | -1.5 | 0.7 | 56 | 92 | 5.2 | 8.8 | 61.2 | 100.8 | 64-98 | 58-104 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | ||||||
| Current | Remaining | Average | 90% Confidence | Change | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Tm | Lg | D | SRS | rSOS | W | L | W | L | W | L | Best | Worst | Post | WC | Div | LDS | LCS | Pennant | Win WS | 1 Day | 7 Days | 30 Days | |||||||
| AL East | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 1 | Baltimore Orioles | AL | E | 0.9 | 0.1 | 92 | 56 | 7.6 | 6.4 | 99.6 | 62.4 | 103-59 | 96-66 | >99.9% | 29.6% | 70.4% | 86.2% | 42.4% | 23.8% | 10.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% | +0.4% | ||||||
| 2 | Tampa Bay Rays | AL | E | 1.0 | 0.1 | 92 | 58 | 6.7 | 5.3 | 98.7 | 63.3 | 102-60 | 96-66 | >99.9% | 70.4% | 29.6% | 70.5% | 36.9% | 20.8% | 9.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | +5.7% | ||||||
| 3 | Toronto Blue Jays | AL | E | 0.4 | 0.3 | 82 | 67 | 6.7 | 6.3 | 88.7 | 73.3 | 92-70 | 86-76 | 71.5% | 71.5% | <0.1% | 36.7% | 18.5% | 7.7% | 3.7% | +12.4% | -9.5% | +2.3% | ||||||
| 4 | New York Yankees | AL | E | -0.4 | -0.2 | 76 | 73 | 6.3 | 6.7 | 82.3 | 79.7 | 85-77 | 79-83 | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | +0.1% | +0.3% | -0.5% | ||||||
| 5 | Boston Red Sox | AL | E | -0.1 | 0.3 | 74 | 75 | 6.2 | 6.8 | 80.2 | 81.8 | 83-79 | 77-85 | <0.1% | <0.1% | 0.0% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | 0.0% | -0.8% | -6.9% | ||||||
| AL Central | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 1 | Minnesota Twins | AL | C | 0.5 | -0.9 | 78 | 71 | 7.6 | 5.4 | 85.6 | 76.4 | 88-74 | 83-79 | 99.8% | <0.1% | 99.8% | 47.8% | 25.5% | 11.4% | 4.8% | -0.2% | +0.3% | +11.1% | ||||||
| 2 | Cleveland Guardians | AL | C | 0.1 | -0.1 | 71 | 78 | 6.7 | 6.3 | 77.7 | 84.3 | 81-81 | 75-87 | 0.1% | <0.1% | 0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | +0.1% | -0.2% | -10.5% | ||||||
| 3 | Detroit Tigers | AL | C | -0.6 | -0.4 | 69 | 79 | 6.8 | 7.2 | 75.8 | 86.2 | 79-83 | 73-89 | 0.1% | <0.1% | 0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | +0.1% | -0.1% | -0.6% | ||||||
| 4 | Chicago White Sox | AL | C | -1.3 | -0.1 | 57 | 92 | 5.6 | 7.4 | 62.6 | 99.4 | 66-96 | 60-102 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | ||||||
| 5 | Kansas City Royals | AL | C | -1.1 | 0.0 | 48 | 101 | 5.5 | 7.5 | 53.5 | 108.5 | 56-106 | 51-111 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | ||||||
| AL West | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 1 | Houston Astros | AL | W | 0.6 | -0.1 | 83 | 66 | 7.1 | 5.9 | 90.1 | 71.9 | 93-69 | 87-75 | 88.9% | 31.9% | 57.0% | 71.6% | 33.3% | 16.1% | 6.9% | -2.9% | -8.2% | +2.7% | ||||||
| 2 | Texas Rangers | AL | W | 0.4 | 0.1 | 82 | 66 | 7.3 | 6.7 | 89.3 | 72.7 | 92-70 | 86-76 | 75.7% | 50.4% | 25.3% | 46.5% | 21.8% | 9.7% | 4.7% | -7.0% | +33.0% | -22.6% | ||||||
| 3 | Seattle Mariners | AL | W | 0.6 | 0.1 | 81 | 67 | 7.4 | 6.6 | 88.4 | 73.6 | 91-71 | 85-77 | 63.6% | 45.9% | 17.7% | 40.5% | 21.5% | 10.5% | 4.3% | -2.6% | -14.8% | +19.2% | ||||||
| 4 | Los Angeles Angels | AL | W | -0.8 | 0.1 | 68 | 81 | 5.8 | 7.2 | 73.8 | 88.2 | 77-85 | 71-91 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | -0.3% | ||||||
| 5 | Oakland Athletics | AL | W | -1.3 | -0.1 | 46 | 102 | 5.9 | 8.1 | 51.9 | 110.1 | 55-107 | 49-113 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | ||||||
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