MLB playoff odds are based on 1000 simulations of the rest of the season and playoffs. The team's estimated quality is determined by their performance over their last 100 regular season games (even if it spans seasons) and includes a regression to the mean factor. These results are based on standings through 2022-05-22. This page does not update during the postseason.
Most Likely Scenarios
| First Round Bye | Wild Card Round | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lg | Top Seed | Division Winner | Division Winner | Wild Card | Wild Card | Wild Card | ||
| NL | Los Angeles Dodgers | St. Louis Cardinals | New York Mets | San Francisco Giants | Milwaukee Brewers | Atlanta Braves | ||
| AL | New York Yankees | Houston Astros | Minnesota Twins | Tampa Bay Rays | Toronto Blue Jays | Los Angeles Angels | ||
Playoff Odds
| Current | Remaining | Average | 90% Confidence | Change | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tm | Lg | D | SRS | rSOS | W | L | W | L | W | L | Best | Worst | Post | WC | Div | LDS | LCS | Pennant | Win WS | 1 Day | 7 Days | 30 Days | |||||||
| NL East | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 1 | New York Mets | NL | E | 0.1 | -0.2 | 28 | 15 | 61.6 | 57.4 | 89.6 | 72.4 | 98-64 | 81-81 | 79.6% | 23.3% | 56.3% | 46.2% | 19.4% | 5.6% | 2.2% | +2.0% | +12.6% | +30.4% | ||||||
| 2 | Atlanta Braves | NL | E | 0.6 | -0.3 | 19 | 22 | 68.2 | 53.8 | 87.2 | 75.8 | 96-67 | 79-84 | 68.0% | 31.5% | 36.5% | 43.1% | 20.4% | 8.1% | 3.5% | -8.5% | -8.9% | -28.1% | ||||||
| 3 | Philadelphia Phillies | NL | E | 0.0 | -0.3 | 19 | 22 | 62.6 | 58.4 | 81.6 | 80.4 | 91-71 | 73-89 | 26.4% | 19.3% | 7.1% | 13.4% | 5.4% | 2.4% | 1.1% | +5.5% | -5.0% | +18.3% | ||||||
| 4 | Miami Marlins | NL | E | -0.8 | -0.1 | 18 | 22 | 53.9 | 68.1 | 71.9 | 90.1 | 81-81 | 63-99 | 1.4% | 1.3% | 0.1% | 0.4% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | +0.2% | +0.4% | +0.6% | ||||||
| 5 | Washington Nationals | NL | E | -1.3 | -0.1 | 14 | 28 | 51.3 | 68.7 | 65.3 | 96.7 | 74-88 | 57-105 | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | 0.0% | -0.2% | -1.1% | ||||||
| NL Central | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 1 | St. Louis Cardinals | NL | C | 0.8 | -0.4 | 23 | 18 | 69.4 | 51.6 | 92.4 | 69.6 | 101-61 | 84-78 | 92.5% | 32.8% | 59.7% | 69.5% | 35.6% | 15.4% | 7.4% | +5.2% | -1.1% | +2.6% | ||||||
| 2 | Milwaukee Brewers | NL | C | 0.3 | -0.2 | 26 | 15 | 64.0 | 57.0 | 90.0 | 72.0 | 99-63 | 82-80 | 84.6% | 44.5% | 40.1% | 52.6% | 23.7% | 8.8% | 3.9% | -8.4% | -7.1% | -6.4% | ||||||
| 3 | Cincinnati Reds | NL | C | -0.5 | -0.3 | 12 | 28 | 59.0 | 63.0 | 71.0 | 91.0 | 80-82 | 63-99 | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | 0.0% | -0.2% | -5.8% | ||||||
| 4 | Chicago Cubs | NL | C | -1.4 | 0.0 | 16 | 24 | 51.2 | 70.8 | 67.2 | 94.8 | 76-86 | 59-103 | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | -0.1% | -0.3% | -0.3% | ||||||
| 5 | Pittsburgh Pirates | NL | C | -1.8 | 0.0 | 16 | 24 | 45.8 | 76.2 | 61.8 | 100.2 | 71-91 | 53-109 | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | -0.1% | 0.0% | -0.7% | ||||||
| NL West | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 1 | Los Angeles Dodgers | NL | W | 2.0 | -0.1 | 27 | 13 | 78.4 | 43.6 | 105.4 | 56.6 | 114-48 | 97-65 | 99.9% | 3.9% | 96.0% | 98.4% | 62.8% | 43.0% | 27.4% | -0.1% | 0.0% | -0.1% | ||||||
| 2 | San Francisco Giants | NL | W | 1.1 | -0.1 | 22 | 18 | 70.5 | 51.5 | 92.5 | 69.5 | 101-61 | 84-78 | 91.8% | 88.0% | 3.8% | 53.9% | 25.2% | 14.3% | 7.8% | -3.1% | -4.9% | -5.7% | ||||||
| 3 | San Diego Padres | NL | W | -0.2 | 0.1 | 27 | 14 | 57.8 | 63.2 | 84.8 | 77.2 | 94-68 | 76-86 | 47.3% | 47.1% | 0.2% | 19.3% | 6.6% | 2.3% | 1.0% | +12.3% | +21.1% | +32.4% | ||||||
| 4 | Colorado Rockies | NL | W | -0.3 | 0.1 | 19 | 21 | 57.6 | 65.4 | 76.6 | 86.4 | 86-77 | 68-95 | 5.8% | 5.8% | <0.1% | 2.2% | 0.7% | 0.1% | <0.1% | -4.8% | -6.0% | -37.9% | ||||||
| 5 | Arizona Diamondbacks | NL | W | -0.7 | 0.2 | 21 | 22 | 52.4 | 66.6 | 73.4 | 88.6 | 82-80 | 64-98 | 2.2% | 2.2% | <0.1% | 0.9% | 0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | -0.1% | -0.4% | +1.8% | ||||||
| Current | Remaining | Average | 90% Confidence | Change | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Tm | Lg | D | SRS | rSOS | W | L | W | L | W | L | Best | Worst | Post | WC | Div | LDS | LCS | Pennant | Win WS | 1 Day | 7 Days | 30 Days | |||||||
| AL East | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 1 | New York Yankees | AL | E | 1.0 | 0.1 | 29 | 12 | 68.2 | 52.8 | 97.2 | 64.8 | 106-56 | 88-74 | 98.2% | 31.0% | 67.2% | 84.3% | 46.0% | 25.4% | 11.5% | -0.3% | 0.0% | +39.9% | ||||||
| 2 | Tampa Bay Rays | AL | E | 1.0 | 0.1 | 24 | 17 | 67.5 | 53.5 | 91.5 | 70.5 | 101-61 | 83-79 | 89.3% | 71.8% | 17.5% | 57.2% | 29.6% | 16.0% | 9.0% | -6.7% | -3.5% | -1.2% | ||||||
| 3 | Toronto Blue Jays | AL | E | 1.0 | -0.1 | 22 | 19 | 69.0 | 52.0 | 91.0 | 71.0 | 100-62 | 83-79 | 87.6% | 73.8% | 13.8% | 52.5% | 26.3% | 13.4% | 5.8% | -3.4% | +3.1% | -8.4% | ||||||
| 4 | Boston Red Sox | AL | E | 0.3 | 0.1 | 19 | 22 | 61.6 | 59.4 | 80.6 | 81.4 | 89-73 | 72-90 | 20.7% | 19.2% | 1.5% | 9.2% | 2.9% | 1.1% | 0.3% | +1.1% | +10.6% | -34.7% | ||||||
| 5 | Baltimore Orioles | AL | E | -1.5 | 0.3 | 17 | 25 | 46.9 | 73.1 | 63.9 | 98.1 | 73-89 | 55-107 | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | ||||||
| AL Central | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 1 | Minnesota Twins | AL | C | 0.2 | 0.1 | 25 | 16 | 60.6 | 60.4 | 85.6 | 76.4 | 94-68 | 77-85 | 58.4% | 14.8% | 43.6% | 30.6% | 12.0% | 4.0% | 1.4% | -2.4% | +15.6% | +53.5% | ||||||
| 2 | Chicago White Sox | AL | C | 0.3 | 0.0 | 21 | 20 | 63.1 | 57.9 | 84.1 | 77.9 | 93-69 | 75-87 | 47.2% | 13.1% | 34.1% | 25.7% | 11.6% | 4.7% | 1.6% | +19.1% | +16.1% | -20.1% | ||||||
| 3 | Cleveland Guardians | AL | C | 0.3 | 0.0 | 17 | 20 | 64.9 | 60.1 | 81.9 | 80.1 | 91-71 | 72-90 | 32.3% | 10.7% | 21.6% | 16.7% | 6.9% | 2.4% | 1.0% | -11.0% | -13.7% | -16.4% | ||||||
| 4 | Detroit Tigers | AL | C | -0.4 | 0.1 | 14 | 26 | 56.8 | 65.2 | 70.8 | 91.2 | 79-83 | 62-100 | 1.0% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% | <0.1% | +0.6% | -0.9% | -17.0% | ||||||
| 5 | Kansas City Royals | AL | C | -0.6 | 0.2 | 14 | 26 | 54.3 | 67.7 | 68.3 | 93.7 | 77-85 | 59-103 | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.2% | <0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | +0.1% | -0.9% | -1.0% | ||||||
| AL West | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 1 | Houston Astros | AL | W | 1.0 | 0.0 | 27 | 15 | 68.3 | 51.7 | 95.3 | 66.7 | 105-57 | 86-76 | 97.1% | 8.0% | 89.1% | 88.2% | 50.8% | 26.9% | 12.5% | -0.2% | -1.2% | +34.5% | ||||||
| 2 | Los Angeles Angels | AL | W | 0.2 | 0.2 | 26 | 17 | 59.5 | 59.5 | 85.5 | 76.5 | 94-68 | 76-86 | 55.1% | 45.4% | 9.7% | 29.4% | 11.6% | 5.4% | 2.3% | +9.9% | -11.6% | +46.6% | ||||||
| 3 | Seattle Mariners | AL | W | 0.0 | 0.0 | 17 | 25 | 59.6 | 60.4 | 76.6 | 85.4 | 86-76 | 68-94 | 7.1% | 6.5% | 0.6% | 3.6% | 1.5% | 0.3% | 0.1% | -3.8% | -8.7% | -27.3% | ||||||
| 4 | Oakland Athletics | AL | W | 0.0 | 0.1 | 17 | 26 | 58.1 | 60.9 | 75.1 | 86.9 | 84-78 | 66-96 | 4.0% | 3.5% | 0.5% | 1.3% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.2% | -2.8% | -5.9% | -49.9% | ||||||
| 5 | Texas Rangers | AL | W | -0.6 | 0.1 | 18 | 22 | 54.8 | 67.2 | 72.8 | 89.2 | 82-80 | 64-98 | 1.6% | 1.5% | 0.1% | 0.7% | 0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | -0.2% | +1.0% | +1.5% | ||||||
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