Mystery Strikeout Theater
Posted by John Autin on June 2, 2011
Only 6 starting pitchers (min. 60% of career games at SP) who have pitched this year have a career K rate of 9+ strikeouts per 9 IP and 40+ career starts.
Two are teammates; another is their rival; one digs the long ball; one's on the DL. But who's the other one with the conspicuous lack of success? His H/9 and ERA+ are both markedly worse than the rest of the group.
| 7.22 | 3.09 | 127 |
| 7.38 | 3.00 | 142 |
| 7.70 | 4.17 | 102 |
| 8.14 | 3.70 | 111 |
| 8.31 | 4.11 | 104 |
| 8.96 | 4.56 | 85 |
June 2nd, 2011 at 11:46 pm
Verlander, Kerry Wood, and Brandon Morrow (the one without success) are the ones I can come up with.
June 2nd, 2011 at 11:47 pm
Lincecum must be one too. Is Matt Cain?
June 2nd, 2011 at 11:49 pm
First thought was Greinke, but not enough K/9. For just this year, though, he has 11.9 K/9, but just 74 ERA+
June 2nd, 2011 at 11:51 pm
The teammates could be Sabathia and Wood, and Morrow could be their rival.
June 2nd, 2011 at 11:54 pm
Only one of the six has been named so far....
June 2nd, 2011 at 11:55 pm
I'll add that all of them are working as starting pitchers this year.
June 2nd, 2011 at 11:58 pm
Jonathan Sanchez and Clayton Kershaw?
June 2nd, 2011 at 11:58 pm
The teammates are Lincecum (142 ERA+) and Sanchez (102) and their corresponding rival is Kershaw (127).
June 3rd, 2011 at 12:00 am
Five of the six are in the NL. All are still with the team with which they debuted in the majors. Five of the six still pitch for the team that drafted or signed them; the other one started his career in the same organization as the teammates.
June 3rd, 2011 at 12:02 am
@7/Josh and @8/Duskrequiem have named 3 of our 6 targets: Tim Lincecum and Jonathan Sanchez (teammates), and Clayton Kershaw (their rival).
(I still type "Charlie Kershaw" every time, before correcting myself.)
June 3rd, 2011 at 12:03 am
So we're still looking for the one who digs the long ball, the one on the DL and the one with the 85 ERA+.
June 3rd, 2011 at 12:03 am
ERA+ of 104 is Liriano then.
June 3rd, 2011 at 12:04 am
John, you said at one point that only one had been named, but I named both Lincecum and Morrow, but both appear to qualify. Every clue you have given seems to eliminate Morrow.
June 3rd, 2011 at 12:11 am
@13, Josh -- Fair point. I forgot to specify that my definition of "starting pitcher" is 60% of career games at SP (which is the default in the Play Index). That eliminates Morrow. I apologize for the omission and will correct the post.
June 3rd, 2011 at 12:12 am
@12, Duskrequiem -- But which of the descriptions does Liriano match?
June 3rd, 2011 at 12:12 am
ERA+ of 111 is Gallardo.
June 3rd, 2011 at 12:14 am
Johan Santana on the DL, right?
June 3rd, 2011 at 12:15 am
nm... 8.9k/ip. so close.
June 3rd, 2011 at 12:15 am
Gallardo loves the longball, Liriano is on the DL?
June 3rd, 2011 at 12:18 am
Lincecum (142), and Sanchez (102) are team mates.
Kershaw (127) Rival
Gallardo (112) Loves the long ball
Liriano (104) Is on the D/L
Norris (85) is the other one
June 3rd, 2011 at 12:19 am
@17, Luke Larson -- But Johan has not pitched this year, which rules him out.
June 3rd, 2011 at 12:19 am
No one has asked the truly importamt question yet - do any of the pitchers have 3000 K's?
June 3rd, 2011 at 12:22 am
@ 20, I don't think I would've ever come up with Norris. (Last guy I looked up was Wandy.) Great job.
June 3rd, 2011 at 12:22 am
@19/Duskrequiem correctly named 2 more, and @20/Shawn put it all together with our final mystery man (and the underlying point of this post): Bud Norris.
What's his story? OK, his mediocre BB and HR rates contribute to his high ERA. But what about that H/9 rate of almost 9?
June 3rd, 2011 at 12:23 am
@22, Max -- Not sure what you're driving at. The active leader in Ks is Javier Vazquez with about 2,400.
June 3rd, 2011 at 12:31 am
Bud Norris has a career average of 9.3 SO/9. Of the 29 modern pitchers with at least 40 starts and 60% of their games at SP, Norris has easily the highest career H/9, 8.96 (the median is 7.76) and the worst ERA+, 85 (median is 118).
June 3rd, 2011 at 12:31 am
Norris is a puzzle, his average velocity is around 94 according to fangraphs, and his swinging strike percentage is about 11% both are very good, but he can't put it together. I was pretty sure it was him because he let me down on my fantasy team last year. I got him for K's and he blew up my ERA and WHIP.
June 3rd, 2011 at 1:23 am
Seems only fitting that Bud Norris picked up a win tonight. Good night, folks.
June 3rd, 2011 at 7:48 am
Did Daniel Cabrera pitch this year?
June 3rd, 2011 at 7:54 am
I was waaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaayyyy off. Cabrera hasn't pitched since '09, doesn't have a K/9 over 9 (he did early in his career but really tailed off since then), and, most importantly, the question was already answered. D'OH!
June 3rd, 2011 at 8:49 am
1) Joel Robinson, 2) Mike Nelson, 3) Tom Servo, 4) Crow T. Robot, 5) TV's Frank, and 6) Clayton Forrester
June 3rd, 2011 at 9:09 am
@ JA
I think you ought to add Kerry Wood to this list.
Although he doesn't meet your 60% criteria, 1,100 of his 1,341 IP came as a starter - or 82%, which, at least to me, makes him more of a starter than reliever, and his K/9 is actually a bit higher as a starter if you can believe it.
I guess the surgeries have taken their toll and he can't hit 100 on the gun anymore.
Just a suggestion.
Its hard to tell his total #s because he split 2005 as a starter and then as a reliever, but I'd conservatively would say he had 116-117 ERA+, over 10 K/9 and a H/9 about 6/9.
June 3rd, 2011 at 9:20 am
I was thinking that Scott Kazmir might make this list, but his career K/9 now stands at 8.7. It was 9.7 for his first five seasons but 6.3 for his last three seasons (with many fewer IP of course).
June 3rd, 2011 at 9:20 am
Duke-
The nature of starting and relieving in today's day and age is such that almost anyone who splits time between the two will have a larger percentage of innings at starter than appearances. You could have a guy with 30-35% of games at starter but with 50+% of innings at starter, especially if he is a one inning specialist (as they almost all are nowadays).
June 3rd, 2011 at 9:50 am
Can we get a post with the answers?? Love the question here!!!
June 3rd, 2011 at 10:17 am
@32, Duke -- You make a very good point about Kerry Wood. Unfortunately, the Play Index does not allow me to directly control for the percentage of innings that have come as a starter, only the percentage of games.
June 3rd, 2011 at 10:19 am
@35, Spaceman -- Put down those corn flakes 🙂 and check out Shawn's answers @20.
June 3rd, 2011 at 3:48 pm
The only one I knew for a fact was Gallardo. I was thinking Peavy, Lincecum and Chris Young, but that was before they give out the clue about the teams they're playing for. By the way, you guys are good. Nice work.
June 3rd, 2011 at 9:02 pm
John Autin, can "mystery theater" become a regular feature in BRef?
After all, look at the response in this thread!
You have too much time on your hands. 🙂
Great catch.
June 4th, 2011 at 12:52 am
Neil L. (and others), thanks for the positive feedback. I'm sure I'll do more mystery-themed posts. (BTW, I think Andy did a "20 Questions" piece a while back; Andy, how about another go at that?)