Tough trivia: active strikeout leaders
Posted by Andy on July 20, 2011
Can you name the top 3 active pitching leaders for career strikeouts? As a clue, one of the pitchers is still active but hasn't yet pitched in the majors in 2011.
You can find the answers here, but please tell us in the comments how many of the 3 you got correct.
July 20th, 2011 at 9:25 am
Jamie Moyer
July 20th, 2011 at 9:30 am
Johan Santana is missing from that list and was my guess for "active but hasn't pitched." My other guesses were Halladay and Oswalt. I thought about Wakefield but didn't think he was ever enough of a strikeout pitcher, even at age 44. Vazquez crossed my mind, but Millwood did not!
July 20th, 2011 at 9:33 am
Only got Wake. Vasquez 600 more k's than Halladay, wow.
July 20th, 2011 at 9:33 am
I know Javier Vazquez is the leader. Just curious, this doesnt answer your question, but how many active leaders in strikeouts were eventually voted to the hall of fame?
July 20th, 2011 at 9:36 am
Shawn, that's fairly easy to answer if you look here:
http://www.baseball-reference.com/leaders/SO_p_progress.shtml
The "active" column shows the active strikeout leader at the end of that season. A few players may be missing from the list who were mid-season leaders.
After 1900, the only guys who were the active leaders but are not in the HOF are Bobo Newsom, Jack Morris, Roger Clemens, Jamie Moyer, and Javier Vazquez.
July 20th, 2011 at 9:40 am
Moyer doesn't show up because he hasn't pitched at all in 2011. Millwood has been pitching in the minors.
July 20th, 2011 at 9:47 am
I was 0 for 3, but I think Moyer counts as "active" as much as Millwood does, so I'm protesting my goose egg!
I should have remembered Wakefield -- I just read his quasi-autobiography within the past month.
July 20th, 2011 at 9:48 am
I guessed Doc, Johan (missing from the list) and Wake.
July 20th, 2011 at 9:51 am
Santana would be 6th if he registered. He also does show because he hasn't pitched anywhere in 2011 yet.
July 20th, 2011 at 10:20 am
If CC can get 79 more Ks this season he will become the 12th pitcher all-time to reach 2000 Ks by his age 30 season. Walter Johnson is the leader with 2467 by that age. CC is on pace for right around 80 more Ks this year so it should come down to the wire.
July 20th, 2011 at 10:53 am
Not sure where to ask this, so I'll put it in the most recent blog.
Is there a reason why the Seattle-Toronto game from last night is not visible in the Daily Recap section of the BBRef home page?
Length of game?
July 20th, 2011 at 10:56 am
Or worded differently, can I look up the answer in about two seconds on Baseball Reference.com? Yes. 1-Vazquez 2-Wakefiled 3-Millwood.
Very surprising though. Not sure Millwood even counts as active. Strikeouts perhaps a very overrated stat.
July 20th, 2011 at 10:58 am
Didn't the read the "find the answers here thing." Guess i could've done that in less than two seconds.
July 20th, 2011 at 11:06 am
The active-but-not-active clue led me to Moyer, who would be #2. Of course, Moyer has been pitching so long that when he first made it to the majors, his ballpark didn't have lights.
July 20th, 2011 at 11:07 am
Vazquez Pettitte and Halladay are my guesses. I scrolled right to the bottom without reading the comments.
July 20th, 2011 at 11:08 am
Had 1 and 2. Would not have guessed Millwood if I thought about it all day.
July 20th, 2011 at 11:11 am
I guessed Moyer, Wakefield and Halladay.
July 20th, 2011 at 11:26 am
I guessed Moyer, Vazquez and CC. CC missed by 19 K's from the list shown...though I'm also one who thinks Moyer should count.
July 20th, 2011 at 11:27 am
My guesses were Wakefield, Halladay and Johan Santana
July 20th, 2011 at 11:32 am
I guessed Vazquez, Wake, and Moyer. I thought that Moyer would count for the active but hasn't pitched yet this year, missed that it said in the majors, not in general.
July 20th, 2011 at 11:58 am
Two of three. I thought maybe they were counting Pettitte as still active, in which case I'd have had all three.
July 20th, 2011 at 11:58 am
@11, Neil L., re: missing TOR-SEA game -- This happens sometimes. There are a couple other games missing, too; and when this happens, the games (and their stats) are usually missing from everywhere (team schedule pages, player pages, etc.), except the standings table.
I've been told this is a known bug. It usually gets resolved within the day.
July 20th, 2011 at 12:05 pm
Would've gotten all three if Moyer counted. I figured he might not, though, since you specified someone who hasn't pitched "yet" this year and he's out for the season. Oh well, I'll settle for the Meatloaf special.
July 20th, 2011 at 12:08 pm
I knew the top 2 were Vazquez and Moyer. Looking at Vazquez's strikeout numbers going into the 2010 season, I thought he had a chance, albeit a slim one, of getting to 3,000 strikeouts. But since then he's lost a lot of his strikeout mojo. He still might get to 2,500 before this year's over. He's probably the most mediocre pitcher with close to 2,500 strikeouts. If Vazquez somehow gets to 3,000, he might be the only pitcher to get 3,000 and definitely not be a Hall of Famer.
July 20th, 2011 at 12:11 pm
Without looking it up (or reading comments):
Jamie Moyer?
Javier Vazquez
Tim Wakefield
Livan Hernandez
Dang! Got the first two. Moyer didn't count; Kevin Millwood and CC Sabathia slipped in between Wakefield and Livan.
Pretty good, though, I'd say...
July 20th, 2011 at 12:15 pm
I guessed Santana, Moyer, and Halladay. Moyer should be second, but I didn't think of Vasquez or Wakefield.
July 20th, 2011 at 12:31 pm
Guessed Moyer, Hernandez, and Halladay. Didn't realize Vazquez has accumulated that many.
July 20th, 2011 at 12:37 pm
I too would dispute that Millwood is active, maybe if he finds a roster spot in September, but if he's in the minors, he isn't an "active" major leaguer. That said I had all 3 and CC as my fourth, as he just moved past Livan Hernandez.
I'd say we can un-bold Manny Ramirez from the leaders lists as well.
July 20th, 2011 at 12:48 pm
There's only 1 active pitcher on the all time strikeout list, but 9 batters. Wakefield is #1 active in wins with 198, tied for #111 on the all time list.
It's amazing how fast we went from having several active 300 game winners to not even having a 200 game winner.
July 20th, 2011 at 1:05 pm
I forgot about Millwood...was thinking Moyer, got the other two though.
July 20th, 2011 at 1:26 pm
When you take a good look at that list, it shows just how much the strikeout pitcher has diminished. Pending health, other than Sabathia, we may never see a 3,000 strikeout pitcher again. Let alone, ever see a 300 K season strikeout pitcher.
July 20th, 2011 at 1:28 pm
got vasquez and wakefield.
July 20th, 2011 at 1:56 pm
"we may never see a 3,000 strikeout pitcher again."
very likely:
King Felix
likely:
Lincecum
possible:
Cain
Beckett
Halladay
Hamels
Verlander
(probably a few others)
July 20th, 2011 at 1:59 pm
The hardest part was trying to guess the definition of "active." The clue led me to consider Pedro Martinez, Jamie Moyer, Johan Santana and Millwood. I figured Martinez and Moyer would not qualify as "active," and then picked Santana over Millwood. My other guesses were Wakefield (old) and Halladay (good). I also considered Sabathia. I did not consider Vazquez. So my final three choices were Santana, Halladay, and Wakefield.
July 20th, 2011 at 2:07 pm
Players strike out more now than ever before. Put a prime 30 year old Randy Johnson in there now and maybe he strikes out 400 in a season.
It's just a matter of time before the right pitcher shows up. That flamethrowing Cuban was supposed to become a starter, but it never happened and he lost control.
July 20th, 2011 at 2:07 pm
Pending health, other than Sabathia, we may never see a 3,000 strikeout pitcher again. Let alone, ever see a 300 K season strikeout pitcher.
I think you're missing the point of Andy's post, which is that this is a historically unusual period in which very few starting pitchers have amassed high career counting-stat totals like strikeouts. (See Downpuppy's #29: "There's only 1 active pitcher on the all time strikeout list, but 9 batters.") Batter strikeout rates have never been higher, so, even with starters' IP totals continuing to decline, 300-strikeout seasons and 3,000-strikeout careers are still well within the reach of good, durable power pitchers. We just don't have many of those guys playing at the moment!
July 20th, 2011 at 2:10 pm
Doug B and Jimbo said what I wanted to say, both faster and more succinctly. Now it looks like I'm just piling on. (-;þ
July 20th, 2011 at 2:31 pm
But I will say that we may never see guys pitching 280 innings again. So the number of pitchers getting 200+ K's is likely to continue to be less than it was in the 70's.
Still... I can see guys like Hernandez and Lincecum average 200 K's for a 15-year period.
The number of picthers averaging 8+ K's per 9 innings is probably as high as ever. But a lot of them are throwing 170-200 innings.
July 20th, 2011 at 2:43 pm
I knew Vazquez but didn't get the others.
The Angels could have had a pretty unique rotation this year. Piniero passed 1000Ks early in 2011. Kazmir needs 7 more to 1000 and would have got there if he hadn't had a meltdown. Santana needs another 32 and should get there this year, and Weaver needs another 98 which is a stretch but just about feasible (if his K/9 wasn't down on last year it might have been more realistic). Haren entered 2011 with 1251.
I wonder if any rotation has had 4 guys reach a landmark in the same year?
July 20th, 2011 at 2:44 pm
I guess Moyer and Wake but had not clue beyond that. BTW, here's some support to the Moyer still active argument:
http://sportsjournalism.org/sports-media-news/not-yet-retired-jamie-moyer-to-join-espn-as-studio-analyst/
He may not be techinically "active" but he is not retired. I am not sure what the difference is.
This list highlights something I have been thinking about lately (spurred by Baseball Tonight's discussion of unbreakable records)...Nolan Ryan was superman.
July 20th, 2011 at 3:27 pm
re: Nolan Ryan as Superman - I can remember (as I'm sure many others can as well) when Ryan and Steve Carlton were trading the all-time striekout mark after passing the Big Train. They were back and forth several times over a few months, and then the Ryan Express just made the whole notion seem quaint. It'd be like two people racing across the country to reach California, and throughout Nevada they were neck and neck, and then one guy decided, to hell with it, and kept going until he reached Hawaii.
July 20th, 2011 at 3:30 pm
Ryan's strikeout and walk records are unlikely ever to be broken.
July 20th, 2011 at 4:05 pm
@11 @22
Thanks, JA, for the reply. I wanted to check a couple of details about the game and couldn't find it. I didn't know that some games got omitted.
I couldn't believe that the Mariners scored 5 runs in two innings, including 2 HR, in spite of being so offensively challenged.
July 20th, 2011 at 4:21 pm
Guessed Vazquez Moyer and Tim Hudson, had one, would have had 2 had Moyer counted, and 12. Didn't even think of Wakefield, although I should have.
July 20th, 2011 at 4:26 pm
@33, DougB, I'd add Sabathia to the "very likely" list of pitchers who will get to 3,000. In fact, I'd rate him the most likely of any pitcher in the game. He's already just short of 2,000 in his age-30 season, he's a lefty, has had no arm issues, and is very durable, He can still hit 98 mph when he wants to, so barring a significant injury and the longevity of lefties in the game, it would be surprising if he didn't pass 3,000.
King Felix is a good one since like Sabathia he arrived in the Majors at a young age and has been compiling good numbers. I have some doubts about Lincecum. Because of his size, I keep thinking he may follow a Ron Guidry course and start to lose velocity and q declining strikeout rate. His peak seasons are already a couple of years behind him, so he'll have to maintain his health. It would also be a good idea for him to remain in the NL. He's only three-years younger than Sabathia going by age seasons, so he'll have to continue his high strikeout rate. That all said, he is the The Freak, so maybe he'll still be striking out 200 batters a season at 40-years-old.
July 20th, 2011 at 5:07 pm
@33 @45
DougB and RobMer, do any of us take into account, when projecting future 3000 K pitchers, the fact that a declining run-scoring environment may also lead to a decreased strikeout rate as more of a premium is put on contact at bats?
It depends, partly, on how how deep the run-scoring trough becomes in the future, in my opinion.
July 20th, 2011 at 5:14 pm
I was looking at Vasquez's statistics and they do look pretty mediocre: except for one thing. His SO/BB ratio is well over 3 for his career. I thought only the best of the best achieved that! Even a fine pitcher like Tom Glavine was under 2 for his career.
Naturally Greg Maddux had an SO/BB ratio of over 3, but he's a lock HOFer. Since I mentioned the above two pitchers I have to point out that Smoltzie was over 3 also. Maybe not a hall of famer, but still a damn good pitcher.
Could someone make a list of all the pitchers who had a 3+ SO/BB ratio over a long career? I'm thinking it would have to be something like 90% HOF-quality pitchers, but I wouldn't mind being proven wrong.
July 20th, 2011 at 5:24 pm
@ RobMer
yes. Sabathia is a lock if he stays healthy. I took his sentence as saying "other than Sabathia" we aren't likely to see another.
July 20th, 2011 at 5:26 pm
Jeff is a member of the Bret Saberhagen for the hall of fame society.
🙂
July 20th, 2011 at 5:32 pm
also, Greg Swindel was a .500 pitcher with a 107 ERA+ and K/BB over 3. He pitched 17 seasons with over 2,200 innings.
there are actually quite a few guys with 3+ K/BB that are not hall of fame bound.
July 20th, 2011 at 5:33 pm
I guessed CC Sabathia, Wakefield, and Moyer. Not to toot my own horn, but I think I did really well.
July 20th, 2011 at 5:47 pm
@50
I've been looking at some career stats for good/great pitchers, and I've found a few other Swindell-like players. But it's still interesting that Vasquez is solidly over 3 SO/BB for his career. Here are some successful pitchers who did not achieve a ratio of 3 SO/BB for their careers:
Tom Seaver
Steve Carlton (not even close)
Jim Palmer (even further away: he was well under 2)
Roger Clemens (close, but not quite)
Bert Blyleven
...and I probably don't need to mention Nolan Ryan.
I know there's much more to measuring a pitcher than SO/BB ratio, but still: it is interesting.
July 20th, 2011 at 5:59 pm
@42
"Ryan's strikeout and walk records are unlikely ever to be broken."
Very unlikely. However, Randy Johnson did come close to breaking Ryan's single season K record in 2001. Johnson did not pitch his last scheduled start so AZ could set it's rotation for the playoffs. He would have needed 12 that last start, but wasn't a big stretch considering the way he was pitching..
July 20th, 2011 at 8:31 pm
@52
Its actually shorter to list pitchers who did have K/BB > 3 for their careers. Its only been done 40 times. 13 active guys, a few 19th century guys, several closers and a couple starter-closers (Eck, Smoltz). For HOF-ers, its only Ward, Eck, Marichal and Jenkins... though Maddux, Johnson, Pedro, Rivera and probably Hoffmann, Schilling & Maybe Smoltz will join them in the HOF eventually.
July 20th, 2011 at 10:23 pm
Hmm. I got Vazquez and Wakefield right off because I knew that they were active players with 2,000 Ks. However, I was misled by the clue and guessed Moyer, since he still claims hes active. And it's about time you took off Andy Pettitte off the active player list. XD
July 21st, 2011 at 9:02 am
Just as Johnny Damon may smash the 3,000 hits = HOF myth, so may Vazquez with 3,000 Ks.
July 21st, 2011 at 9:05 am
If Javy Vasquez ever got to the HOF, just because he struck out 3,000 hitters, I would never go to visit the Hall of Fame EVER
July 21st, 2011 at 11:10 am
How many of these guys started pitching in the majors before Mike Trout was even born?