Mystery Achievement
Posted by John Autin on June 21, 2011
[The polls have closed -- see comments #20 & #25 -- but please tune in next time!]
A certain Play Index search returns the following pitchers tied at the top of the list:
If I increase the search period by two years, these two are tied for the lead:
Both lists are shown in the same order as generated by the Play Index.
Questions: You must answer both correctly. If you have one right and the other wrong, I will say that, but will not say which is right. If you attempt only one of the questions, I will say nothing.
- What was the original search?
- What other active pitcher would join the top group if the search period were reduced by one year?
June 21st, 2011 at 6:13 pm
Greatest Pretenders song??
June 21st, 2011 at 6:51 pm
10 consecutive years with a cumulative winning percentage of .650 over at least 200 starts?
June 21st, 2011 at 7:00 pm
I believe it has something to do with Pitcher's hitting statistics in relation to their pitching stats. I'll keep looking.
June 21st, 2011 at 7:02 pm
This looks like it doesnt make any sense, if it can include Hudson, Ford and Alexander, it at a minimum must be from 1930-1999, which means it includes the entire careers Marichal and Feller, yet somehow adding 2 more years would mean Marichal would not be ahead of Ford anymore?
June 21st, 2011 at 7:05 pm
Yeah that just came to me, KB. Maybe it's the above qualifications I posted sorted by homers.
I know Hudson would only have one in his time-period. I'd check the others, but I've left home
June 21st, 2011 at 7:06 pm
Topper-
It could have to do with the length of the "achievement". So, if you move from say a 10-year-window of a player's career to a 12-year-window, the order shakes up.
Totally made up example:
All three players had a sub 3.50 ERA for the first 10 years and are ranked in order of ERA.
Player 1 had an ERA of 3.2
Player 2 had an ERA of 3.3
Player 3 had an ERA of 3.4
Adding two years, you now look at players who had a sub 3.50 ERA for the first 12 years and rank them in order of ERA. Now you have...
Player 2 had an ERA of 3.2
Player 1 had an ERA of 3.1
Player 3 had an ERA of 3.4
They all still meet the criteria for achievement but their standing within those who also met the criteria shifts slightly. Make sense?
That being said, I have NO IDEA what the achievement is.
June 21st, 2011 at 7:11 pm
I notice that the players seem to be broken up by decade as follows:
1910s: Alexander
-
1930s: Hubbell
1940s: Feller
1950s: Ford
1960s: Marichal
-
-
1990s: Pettite
2000s: Hudson
June 21st, 2011 at 7:16 pm
It's almost impossible that that the search was done solely on pitching stats. Such a search would have certainly included more dead ball era pitchers.
June 21st, 2011 at 7:17 pm
It's not about any of the following:
-- Pitchers' hitting
-- ERA
-- Chrissie Hynde
Ryan @2 has a bit of the angle.
I did not search on a time period such as "1919-2011."
June 21st, 2011 at 7:18 pm
Only one stat was involved in the search.
June 21st, 2011 at 7:19 pm
... and it was a pitching stat.
June 21st, 2011 at 7:20 pm
BSK @6 also has part of the angle.
June 21st, 2011 at 7:20 pm
JA, don't even respond to posters at 7:30 P.M. EST. Let the suspense build! 🙂
I'm going to work on the question ....
June 21st, 2011 at 7:21 pm
When I did the searches, the pitchers listed were exactly tied atop the results -- no rounding or anything.
June 21st, 2011 at 7:23 pm
JA, no hints please!!
June 21st, 2011 at 7:24 pm
Got to step away again -- dinnertime.
June 21st, 2011 at 7:29 pm
Most consecutive seasons with a winning record to start a career?
June 21st, 2011 at 7:31 pm
No, some of them are 12 and some 13 and Alexander had 19.
June 21st, 2011 at 7:32 pm
The key has to be Tim Hudson after last night's performance against the Blue Jays. Wondering about W/L % ......
June 21st, 2011 at 7:35 pm
Winning record for the first 12 seasons of their career. Going to first 14 seasons leaves only Alexander and Ford. Going to 11 includes active pitcher CC Sabathia on the list.
June 21st, 2011 at 7:37 pm
Yes, Jay. That is it. And by extending it by two years, you are left with only Alexander and Ford
June 21st, 2011 at 7:38 pm
Plus sorted by most recent.
June 21st, 2011 at 7:43 pm
@20 @21 @22
Jay, LJF, KB I think you have it. But I'm a day late and a dollar short.
JA, look how popular these "mysteries" are.
June 21st, 2011 at 7:43 pm
But it would seem Pettitte had 16 straight years of winning seasons if you include his 14-14 mark in 2008.
June 21st, 2011 at 7:58 pm
1. Winning % greater than .500 for first 12 seasons of career.
2. CC Sabathia (11 seasons).
Don't know if this is right, but it fits the criteria...
Changing the number to 14 eliminates all but Whitey and Pete.
Notes:
Hudson is in his 13 season and is 6-6
Pettitte was above .500 in his 13th, but was exactly .500 in his 14th, the lowest of his career
Pete did it for 19 years, but in his 20th and final was 0-3
Sabathia is currently in his 11th season and is 9-4
June 21st, 2011 at 8:01 pm
@ Ian: No, that would be "Time the Avenger".
June 21st, 2011 at 8:01 pm
Pettite pitched for 16 seasons and never had a losing record. That is a record for most seasons pitched without a losing record in any one season.
June 21st, 2011 at 8:15 pm
If you throw out Pedro's 0-1 record in his first season (2 Gs, 1 GS, 1 GF, 8 IP), he had 15 straight years before going 5-6 at the age of 36.
Interestingly enough, in the one game he lost during that first season, he went 6 innings, let up 4 hits, walked no one, struck out 7, and let up 2 R's. He had a game score of 63 and WPA of -.016. His team lost 3-1 (Roger McDowell let up a R in relief).
June 21st, 2011 at 8:15 pm
>... AND THE WINNERS ARE:
Jay @20 had the correct answers in sentence form.
Tom @25 had the correct answers in "Play Index" form.
Since one was "first" but the other has the preferred syntax, I declare you co-winners! All hail, Jay and Tom! [... and there was much rejoicing ...]
Strong honorable mention to LJF @17, who had the kernel of it with "most consecutive seasons with a winning record to start a career."
Special mention to Ian @1 for being first on the scene and name-checking The Pretenders!
There's a lot of brainpower hanging out at this water hole!
June 21st, 2011 at 8:17 pm
Richard-
Yet Pettitte only ranked in the top ten of WPA twice, WAR once, and WAR for Pitchers three times. Pitching for the 90's/00's Yankees sure helped that W/L record.
June 21st, 2011 at 8:23 pm
BTW, Tim Hudson's top similarity scores among pitchers:
951 -- Roy Halladay
945 -- Ron Guidry
943 -- C.C. Sabathia
921 -- Roy Oswalt
June 21st, 2011 at 8:23 pm
@29
"Jay @20 had the correct answers in sentence form."
JA, so you are an English teacher now? 🙂
Nice question, triggered by Hudson's win last night.
June 21st, 2011 at 8:30 pm
@32, Neil L. -- Now ... and always!
(Not really, but I do love language.)
June 21st, 2011 at 8:41 pm
Paul Konerko has hit a HR in 5 straight games.
June 21st, 2011 at 8:58 pm
I thought it was interesting that Hudson scores as very similar to Halladay. It kind of points up the weakness of Similarity Score for comparing Hall of Fame credentials: it only looks at career totals.
I think Halladay's HOF credentials are virtually complete right now, even with just 178 wins:
-- 2 Cy Young Awards (one in each league)
-- Many seasons leading the league in IP, CG, SHO
-- 3 20-win seasons
-- .667 W% and winning well over half his starts
-- A perfect game and a postseason no-hitter
-- A string of years as the consensus #1 pitcher
The only way I can even imagine Halladay not making the HOF is if he loses his effectiveness very soon, but continues to pitch for a long time, becomes a dead-weight contract. That could affect how he's remembered. But if his career simply ended tomorrow, he's in. (See Dean, Dizzy; Koufax, Sandy.)
Hudson has been a good pitcher for a long time. He's just a little behind Halladay in most categories, thus the high Similarity Score. Compared to Halladay, Hudson is -7 in wins, +4 in losses, -27 in IP, -7 in shutouts, -10 in ERA+. Even though Hudson is almost 2 years older, it's not out of the question that he might wind up with better career numbers than Halladay in almost all those categories. But he would still be way behind in HOF buzz.
In my "fan brain," it boils down to this: When my team goes up against Hudson, even though I know he's been great and is still pitching really well (his rate stats are much better than his ERA this year), I feel like we've got a decent shot to beat him; when we face Halladay, I assume we'll lose.
June 21st, 2011 at 9:06 pm
@34, Hey, Timmy P! Yeah, 'Nerks is having another great year! Maybe even better than last year.
I don't know if this is really true, but it feels as though Konerko is one of the few players who put up big numbers during the high-scoring years, yet has had even better raw numbers in the last 1-1/2 years.
Re: the 5-game HR streak -- the record (as we all know) is 8, by Don Mattingly & Dale Long. The longest streak last year was 6, by Carlos Pena. Who remembers the last 7-game HR streak? The year was 2006....
June 21st, 2011 at 9:10 pm
@35
JA, an interesting question came up today on "Prime Time Sports", a local sports talk radio show. With Cooperstown taking control over what cap a player will "induct" into the HOF after the Wade Boggs debacle, what baseball cap would Halladay wear, Jays or Phillies?
June 21st, 2011 at 9:16 pm
@37, Neil L. -- Methinks we won't have to worry about that for a few years yet. But if his career ends within the next 5 years, it would have to be a Jays cap, right?
June 21st, 2011 at 9:18 pm
A few thoughts on Halladay...
- Got a relatively late start to his career, making 30+ starts for the first time at age 25.
- Missed almost 1/2 his starts in '04 and '05, with '05 being particularly detrimental as he was having a dominant season (12-4 in 19 starts, 2.41 ERA, 185 ERA+).
- Pitched in the AL East for a team that finished better than 3rd only once, likely costing him a handful of wins.
- Was 1st or 2nd in WAR for Pitchers (by league) every year from 2002 to 2011 except for 2004 (injured) and 2007. Oddly enough, in the years he didn't finish top 2, he was completely out of the top 10.
I'm not sure where I stand on Halladay as a HoFer if his career ended today but my hunch is he will do more than enough that it won't be much of a question.
June 21st, 2011 at 9:22 pm
JA-
When I saw that Konerko was having another good season, I looked at his stats. I was surprised to see that he hadn't yet hit 400 HRs. It seems like he's been hitting 30+ home runs as long as I can remember. I guess that just goes to show how hard baseball is. Konerko's been mashing for the better part of a decade and a half and is barely halfway to the record and stands zero chance of ever getting there. And looking at his WAR, he barely even registers. Interesting!
June 21st, 2011 at 9:24 pm
Before I forget ... the answer to my question @36: The last 7-game HR streak was by Kevin Mench in 2006.
http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/gl.cgi?t=b&id=menchke01&year=2006#435-441-sum
The amazing thing was that Mench hit just 13 HRs that year in 127 games.
June 21st, 2011 at 9:50 pm
@36 Great points about Konerko hitting as well if not better after the high-scoring years. I believe he set the White Sox franchise record tonight for consecutive games with a HR.
June 21st, 2011 at 9:51 pm
@40, BSK -- I was also surprised at Konerko's low WAR total. But there were a lot of big-bopper first sackers in that era.
Thinking about 400 HRs or so:
I think most of us who follow this stuff closely have already made the mental adjustment for season stats to reflect the decline in scoring over the last 2 years. It will be interesting to see how long it takes to make the same adjustment for career stats. Of course, the active players now with 300+ HRs did most of their damage in the previous era. But I think the generation that's just gotten started over the last couple years (Ryan Braun, Joey Votto, etc.) is going to face the same problems of perception as those whose careers ended just before the PED era (e.g., Lou Whitaker).
June 21st, 2011 at 9:55 pm
@42, Timmy P -- Looks like Konerko tied the White Sox record (at least, the record for 1919-present), shared by the Big Hurt (twice), Carlos Lee, and Greg Luzinski & Ron Kittle (both in '83).
BTW, the first White Sox player ever to homer in 4 straight games was Minnie Minoso in 1953.
June 21st, 2011 at 10:00 pm
Holy crap, guess who's back in the majors and hit a HR tonight as Arizona's DH?
Wily Mo Pena! He hadn't played in the bigs since 2008, but he's been slaying the PCL this year, hitting .363 with an 1.165 OPS. He's still only 28 years old, even though it feels like he's been around forever.
http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=pena--002wil
June 21st, 2011 at 10:05 pm
Konerko's newstat numbers were driven down by the offensive/steroid explosion for sure. If you look at the position players in the top 10 for MVP voting 2003-2006 it's a rogues gallery of steroid users.
June 21st, 2011 at 10:11 pm
@45
Talk about blasts from the past. Why did Wily Mo get traded from Boston to Washington anyway?
In an unrelated matter, it looks like the Marlins are about to make a winner of Trader Jack. What a dismal run they've had.
June 21st, 2011 at 10:56 pm
@36 JA,
Didn't Griffey Jr. homer in 8 consecutive games also?
June 21st, 2011 at 11:30 pm
@48, Donburgh -- Good catch! Griffey homered in 8 straight games in 1993:
http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/gl.cgi?t=b&id=griffke02&year=1993#670-677-sum
June 21st, 2011 at 11:36 pm
@47, Neil L. -- Wily Mo hit well for Boston in 2006, but in '07 his numbers fell to .218 BA and .385 SLG. I don't know if there was a specific provocation for the trade to Washington; maybe the BoSox braintrust just decided that a guy who strikes out 5 times for every walk will never really make it as a hitter -- and if Wily Mo doesn't hit well, there's no role for him on a contender.
June 22nd, 2011 at 12:07 am
I think I said last night that with Konerko heating up and Bautista under a hex, that I would vote for Konerko for MVP. I'd obviously forgotten about Adrian Gonzalez. AG looks to have maybe 215 hits, 55 Doubles, 140 RBI's , and 35 HR. He doesn't walk much, but you might see that change in the second half as they start pitching around him. With that lineup though,
June 22nd, 2011 at 12:19 am
So I assumed Timmy was just being Timmy by promoting Konerko for MVP. But I look him up and wow, he sure is having a tremendous season.
June 22nd, 2011 at 12:22 am
JA-
I'm a bit frustrated that I grew up when I did. I'm 27 and really only began to fully follow and understand baseball inside and out around 1996. I remember seeing an MVP line for a guy from the 80's who had something like 26 HRs and thinking, "How the hell is that even possible?" My baseline for baseball stats is the "steroid" era. And while I'm not one to get sanctimonious and demand that records be thrown out, I do realize that they, among various other factors, altered the way the game was played and the numbers that were accrued during that error. As much as I know that academically, I still look at 35 HRs as the mark of a good but not great season; I scoff at 200K pitchers (growing up with RJ and Pedro putting up 300K seasons, whether because of steroids or just pure dominance, also skewed things a bit). I KNOW that I have a pretty bad bias in this regard. But it's hard to shake that when first sizing up a guy's stat line. My generation who came of age as fans in the heart of the steroid era will have a lot of "unlearning" to do or could create some very unfortunate circumstances around the recording of the game as we become the arbiters of the stories that are told. It will be interesting to see how it all shakes out...
June 22nd, 2011 at 12:30 am
@53 I also made a prediction about 8-9 days ago that even though they may be out of it, I wouldn't want the Twins on my schedule. Don't you look at the stats everyday Twisto, how does Konerko sneak up on you like that?
June 22nd, 2011 at 12:35 am
BSK, I know what you're saying. But if we are in a new offensive era, I think that after a few years you'll get used to it. I grew up when 35-40 HR would lead the league, and by 2000 I'd look back and those numbers seemed puny. You've had tools available to easily adjust numbers for context for a lot of your life as a fan, so you'll be better prepared to compare guys from different eras than older folks. I'm sure there's tons of older fans out there who think guys were just better hitters in the '20s and '30s, cause they could bat .350 with 150 RBI. Most of them probably just learned to take numbers at face value. You and other younger fans (probably even those who aren't as saber-interested as you) are living in a time when it's accepted that all numbers are the product of their environment, and you'll know how to make those adjustments for comparing them.
June 22nd, 2011 at 12:39 am
Don't you look at the stats everyday Twisto
There's 750 major league players. I certainly don't keep up with even a small percentage of them everyday. Plus you (or someone) posted Konerko's homered in 6(?) consecutive games, so I assume his numbers looked more mundane just a week ago.
This blog is good for keeping me up to date because I know there are tons of things I'd otherwise miss.
June 22nd, 2011 at 12:45 am
Just teasin' ya
June 22nd, 2011 at 12:50 am
@53, BSK -- You'll get used to it. It's still baseball. 🙂
When I was in high school in the late '70s (...yep...), my friend Paul got me into Strat-O-Matic, a cards'n'dice simulation game, and that was really my informal introduction to the concept of offensive context. At first we played with the 1977 set (MLB scoring average ~ 4.5 R/G), but then we spent some time with the '76 season (~4.0 R/G), and I eventually learned to scale my player assessments. Only one AL player slugged .500 in 1976!
Then S-O-M came out with some historical sets, and Paul bought the 1930 set. I had read somewhere that the entire NL hit over .300 that year, but I couldn't really get my mind around that until I had to "manage" a team whose best pitcher had a 4.50 ERA. Eventually, you adjust.
It should be easier to make the mental adjustment now that we have context-neutral stats like OPS+, ERA+ and WAR.
June 22nd, 2011 at 12:55 am
I was looking at Dizzy Dean's stats from 1934 and he pitched in 50 games, he won 30, lost 7, saved 7, started 33, had 24 CG, finished 14 other games, had 7 shutouts, hit 2 HR's, 1 triple, 3 doubles, 9 RBI, 1 SB, and 1 walk. He had at least 1 of every major stat both pitching and hitting, except HBP. It surprises me that ole' Diz didn't get one in the ear as he use to like to boast quite often. I say boast, becuase it ain't braggin' if you can back it up.
June 22nd, 2011 at 1:06 am
I looked at Dean's saves. It looks like 5 would be saves under current rules, 1 would not, and 1 (the last one) I'm pretty sure would be, but I'm not 100% sure without the play-by-play.
June 22nd, 2011 at 1:09 am
"Slud, Dizzy, slud!"
June 22nd, 2011 at 1:12 am
Yep, The save rules were different back then. A lot of things were different back then, esp with the way they handled pitching staffs. Still quite an accomplishment, he was the last NL pitcher to win 30. His brother won 19 for that team also. Couple of old boys from Arkansas.
June 22nd, 2011 at 2:53 am
@37, which hat Halladay will wear is a long way from being determined. If his career ended early, in the next few years, and he went in with 200 wins and all his other accomplishments, it's an easy choice. He's a Blue Jay. He's 148-76 as a Jay, and 30-13 as a Philly. He'll need to continue at a high level for several more years. I also favor the original team where the pitcher established himself, unless he goes on to substantial greatness for other teams.
I'd put Randy Johnson in wearing a Mariner cap, but my guess is it will be Arizona.
Mussina to me would be an Oriole.
Schilling, if he makes it, presents an interesting case.
I think the whole cap issue should be changed to reflect how the game has changed. Players with multiple teams should have generic hats on their plaques, with all the logos of the teams they played for during their careers highlighted on the plaques. Kind of a variation of what Catfish Hunter did.
June 22nd, 2011 at 9:06 am
@63
Randy Johnson goes in as a D-Back, he had his greatest seasons there.
Schilling will probably be a Red Sox since he won 2 WS there
Mussina will more than likely be a Yankee. However, I would not be surprised if he went in as an Oriole.
On the Konerko posts. This guy has had a very solid career. As a hitter, he reminds me of Dwight Evans, very consistent from year to year. However, Evans was a Gold Glove OF which ranks him a little better. If Konerko gets to 500 homers, he has a shot at the Hall of Fame.
June 22nd, 2011 at 9:20 am
The only guy to pitch in at least ten seasons and have a winning record in EVERY season he pitched in was .... Babe Ruth.
June 22nd, 2011 at 10:07 am
@65, Mike S. -- But Hudson is still in contention for that mark.
June 22nd, 2011 at 11:07 am
RJ won 4 consecutive Cy Youngs for the D'Backs and should have probably won a 5th a year later.
I wonder if RJ will even get swept up in steroid speculation. I wonder how the voters will look at his 5 post-30 Cy Youngs (4 of which came in his mid- to late-30's). I personally don't think there is any reason to doubt his accomplishments, especially given the adjustments he made as he matured from a hurler to a pitcher. But I also saw no reason for Bagwell to get caught up in speculation and we all see how that went.