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Vlad Guerrero has a good HR-to-strikeout ratio

Posted by Andy on July 22, 2010

As of yesterday, Vladimir Guerrero is the only player this season with a HR total at least 60% of his srtikeout total, minimum 4 homers. Click through for details.

Rk HR SO Year Age Tm G PA AB R H 2B 3B RBI BB BA OBP SLG OPS Pos
1 Vladimir Guerrero 20 31 2010 35 TEX 88 380 345 61 110 14 1 76 25 .319 .368 .539 .908 *D9/7
2 Ross Gload 3 4 2010 34 PHI 59 75 72 6 18 3 0 12 2 .250 .280 .417 .697 /39D7
3 Drew Sutton 1 1 2010 27 CIN 2 3 3 1 2 0 0 4 0 .667 .667 1.667 2.333 /*6*4*5
4 Gustavo Chacin 1 0 2010 29 HOU 23 1 1 1 1 0 0 1 0 1.000 1.000 4.000 5.000 *1
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 7/21/2010.

Last year, Albert Pujols was the only guy to do it:

Rk Player HR SO Year Age Tm G PA AB R H 2B 3B RBI BB BA OBP SLG OPS Pos
1 Albert Pujols 47 64 2009 29 STL 160 700 568 124 186 45 1 135 115 .327 .443 .658 1.101 *3/D
2 Gaby Sanchez 2 3 2009 25 FLA 21 23 21 2 5 0 0 3 2 .238 .304 .524 .828 /3
3 Dusty Brown 1 0 2009 27 BOS 7 4 3 1 1 0 0 1 1 .333 .500 1.333 1.833 /*21
4 Mark Buehrle 1 1 2009 30 CHW 33 5 4 1 1 0 0 1 0 .250 .250 1.000 1.250 *1
5 Tim Hudson 1 1 2009 33 ATL 7 15 12 2 4 0 0 2 2 .333 .429 .583 1.012 /*1
6 Jeff Samardzija 1 1 2009 24 CHC 20 6 5 1 1 0 0 1 0 .200 .200 .800 1.000 *1
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 7/21/2010.

You can see the full list of such seasons since 1901 here. It used to happen a lot more often although some of the really big HR seasons from recent years qualify.

The real proof that it used to be a lot more common is the list of guys who had HR totals at least 60% of their strikeout total for their entire career:

Rk Player HR SO From To Age G PA AB R H 2B 3B RBI BB BA OBP SLG OPS Pos Tm
1 Ted Williams 521 709 1939 1960 20-41 2292 9791 7706 1798 2654 525 71 1839 2021 .344 .482 .634 1.116 *79/1 BOS
2 Lou Gehrig 493 790 1923 1939 20-36 2164 9660 8001 1888 2721 534 163 1995 1508 .340 .447 .632 1.080 *3/976 NYY
3 Stan Musial 475 696 1941 1963 20-42 3026 12712 10972 1949 3630 725 177 1951 1599 .331 .417 .559 .976 3798/1 STL
4 Albert Pujols 388 616 2001 2010 21-30 1492 6491 5489 1131 1823 410 15 1179 873 .332 .426 .624 1.051 *37/59D64 STL
5 Joe DiMaggio 361 369 1936 1951 21-36 1736 7671 6821 1390 2214 389 131 1537 790 .325 .398 .579 .977 *8/793 NYY
6 Johnny Mize 359 524 1936 1953 23-40 1884 7371 6443 1118 2011 367 83 1337 856 .312 .397 .562 .959 *3/9 STL-NYG-TOT-NYY
7 Yogi Berra 358 414 1946 1965 21-40 2120 8364 7555 1175 2150 321 49 1430 704 .285 .348 .482 .830 *279/35 NYY-NYM
8 Ted Kluszewski 279 365 1947 1961 22-36 1718 6470 5929 848 1766 290 29 1028 492 .298 .353 .498 .850 *3 CIN-PIT-TOT-CHW-LAA
9 Bill Dickey 202 289 1928 1946 21-39 1789 7060 6300 930 1969 343 72 1209 678 .313 .382 .486 .868 *2 NYY
10 Ken Williams 196 287 1915 1929 25-39 1397 5616 4862 860 1552 285 77 913 566 .319 .393 .530 .924 *78/934 CIN-SLB-BOS
11 Ernie Lombardi 190 262 1931 1947 23-39 1853 6349 5855 601 1792 277 27 990 430 .306 .358 .460 .818 *2 BRO-CIN-BSN-NYG
12 Frank McCormick 128 189 1934 1948 23-37 1534 6207 5723 722 1711 334 26 954 399 .299 .348 .434 .781 *3/49 CIN-PHI-TOT-BSN
13 Zeke Bonura 119 180 1934 1940 25-31 917 4026 3582 600 1099 232 29 704 404 .307 .380 .487 .867 *3 CHW-WSH-NYG-TOT
14 Lefty O'Doul 113 122 1919 1934 22-37 970 3659 3264 624 1140 175 41 542 333 .349 .413 .532 .945 *7/918 NYY-BOS-NYG-PHI-BRO-TOT
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 7/21/2010.

Pujols is at about 63% right now but it seems unlikely to me that he'll stay above 60% for the remainder of his career. His HR rate is likely to go down at the years go on while his K rate is likely to rise at least a little.

Most impressive on this last list are Joe DiMaggio and Lefty O'Doul who both nearly managed to finish their careers with as many homers as strikeouts. Going into his final season, DiMaggio had 349 HR and 333 strikeouts. O'Doul actually got closer in his final season, registering 9 HR and only 7 strikeouts.

43 Responses to “Vlad Guerrero has a good HR-to-strikeout ratio”

  1. DaveKingman Says:

    Interesting list.

    Stan Musial's career has always fascinated me. He falls into a category that has always got my noggin going - those HOF players with the *lowest* highest similarity scores with other players. Stan's highest similarity score is Yaz at 764.

    Others with the highest similarity scores in that range are the Babe and Ty Cobb. Rickey Henderson has the lowest-highest (if that makes sense) that I've been able to find amongst HOF-ers at 713 (Craig Biggio).

    That suggests to me that those players have had extremely unusual careers, if I understand the stat correctly.

    But I don't know how to search on this. Does anybody else?

  2. Andy Says:

    Wonder no more, Mr. Kingman:

    http://www.baseball-reference.com/leaders/similarity.shtml

  3. Ed Mortimer Says:

    It would be very interesting and informative to juxtapose pitcher K/IP ratio to this HR/K ratio. Say 1920-1960 would cover all but two of the above batters, one falling before (Ken Williams) and one after (Pujols), against the pitchers from 1970-2010.

  4. DaveKingman Says:

    Nice. I never knew that was there.

    Is there a way to see more of the Career list? Can you do a search somehow?

    I'm also bummed I didn't win the 1979 MVP, by the way. Wuz robbed.

  5. JR Says:

    Is Johnny Mize the only player in MLB history to hit 50 homers and strike out less than 50 times?

  6. Andy Says:

    JR, yes. Here are the fewest strikeouts in a 50-HR season:

    Rk Player SO HR Year Age Tm Lg G PA AB R H 2B 3B RBI BB BA OBP SLG OPS Pos
    1 Johnny Mize 42 51 1947 34 NYG NL 154 664 586 137 177 26 2 138 74 .302 .384 .614 .998 *3
    2 Willie Mays 60 51 1955 24 NYG NL 152 670 580 123 185 18 13 127 79 .319 .400 .659 1.059 *8
    3 Ralph Kiner 61 54 1949 26 PIT NL 152 667 549 116 170 19 5 127 117 .310 .432 .658 1.089 *7
    4 Roger Maris 67 61 1961 26 NYY AL 161 698 590 132 159 16 4 142 94 .269 .372 .620 .993 *98
    5 Willie Mays 71 52 1965 34 SFG NL 157 638 558 118 177 21 3 112 76 .317 .398 .645 1.043 *8/97
    6 Jimmie Foxx 76 50 1938 30 BOS AL 149 685 565 139 197 33 9 175 119 .349 .462 .704 1.166 *3
    7 Albert Belle 80 50 1995 28 CLE AL 143 629 546 121 173 52 1 126 73 .317 .401 .690 1.091 *7/D
    8 Babe Ruth 80 54 1920 25 NYY AL 142 616 458 158 172 36 9 137 150 .376 .532 .847 1.379 *978/31
    9 Ralph Kiner 81 51 1947 24 PIT NL 152 666 565 118 177 23 4 127 98 .313 .417 .639 1.055 *7
    10 Babe Ruth 81 59 1921 26 NYY AL 152 693 540 177 204 44 16 171 145 .378 .512 .846 1.359 *78/13
    Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
    Generated 7/22/2010.
  7. Johnny Twisto Says:

    Pujols was close in '06: 49 HR 50 K.

  8. Bryan Mueller Says:

    I decided to go in the opposite direction and find the fewest home runs with greater than or equal to 175 K's. Since I am not a Play Index subscriber, I can only see the partial list, but the fewest I saw was #25 Bobby Bonds with 26 home runs (there are 33 total). This makes sense because you would expect some power production from guys who are going to whiff in one-third of their at-bats.

  9. Bryan Mueller Says:

    I am pretty sure that Jose Hernandez would fall lower on the list.

  10. Andy Says:

    Here you go Bryan.

    The bigger question is--why aren't you a PI subscriber? 🙂

    Rk Player HR SO Year Age Tm BA OBP SLG OPS Pos
    1 Jose Hernandez 13 177 2003 33 TOT .225 .287 .347 .634 *56/843
    2 Mark Bellhorn 17 177 2004 29 BOS .264 .373 .444 .817 *45/6
    3 Dave Nicholson 22 175 1963 23 CHW .229 .319 .419 .738 *7
    4 Jose Hernandez 24 188 2002 32 MIL .288 .356 .478 .834 *6
    5 Jack Cust 25 185 2009 30 OAK .240 .356 .417 .773 *D9
    6 Mike Cameron 25 176 2002 29 SEA .239 .340 .442 .782 *8
    7 Jose Hernandez 25 185 2001 31 MIL .249 .300 .443 .743 *6/87
    8 Rob Deer 25 175 1991 30 DET .179 .314 .386 .700 *9
    9 Bobby Bonds 26 189 1970 24 SFG .302 .375 .504 .879 *98/7
    10 Mark Reynolds 28 204 2008 24 ARI .239 .320 .458 .779 *5/3
    11 Rob Deer 28 186 1987 26 MIL .238 .360 .456 .816 *793/D
    12 Pete Incaviglia 30 185 1986 22 TEX .250 .320 .463 .783 *9D/7
    13 Preston Wilson 31 187 2000 25 FLA .264 .331 .486 .817 *8
    14 Bobby Bonds 32 187 1969 23 SFG .259 .351 .473 .824 *98
    15 Jack Cust 33 197 2008 29 OAK .231 .375 .476 .851 *7D/9
    16 Jose Canseco 33 175 1986 21 OAK .240 .318 .457 .775 *79/D
    17 Rob Deer 33 179 1986 25 MIL .232 .336 .494 .830 *9/37
    18 Mo Vaughn 36 181 2000 32 ANA .272 .365 .498 .864 *3D
    19 Adam Dunn 38 177 2009 29 WSN .267 .398 .529 .928 379/D
    20 Mike Schmidt 38 180 1975 25 PHI .249 .367 .523 .890 *56
    21 Adam Dunn 40 194 2006 26 CIN .234 .365 .490 .855 *7/3D
    22 Jay Buhner 40 175 1997 32 SEA .243 .383 .506 .889 *9/D
    23 Mark Reynolds 44 223 2009 25 ARI .260 .349 .543 .892 *53
    24 Ryan Howard 45 186 2009 29 PHI .279 .360 .571 .931 *3/D
    25 Richie Sexson 45 178 2001 26 MIL .271 .342 .547 .889 *3
    Rk Player HR SO Year Age Tm BA OBP SLG OPS Pos
    26 Gorman Thomas 45 175 1979 28 MIL .244 .356 .539 .895 *8/D
    27 Adam Dunn 46 195 2004 24 CIN .266 .388 .569 .956 *73/D
    28 Ryan Howard 47 199 2007 27 PHI .268 .392 .584 .976 *3/D
    29 Jim Thome 47 182 2003 32 PHI .266 .385 .573 .958 *3/D
    30 Ryan Howard 48 199 2008 28 PHI .251 .339 .543 .881 *3/D
    31 Jim Thome 49 185 2001 30 CLE .291 .416 .624 1.040 *3/D
    32 Cecil Fielder 51 182 1990 26 DET .277 .377 .592 .969 *3D
    33 Ryan Howard 58 181 2006 26 PHI .313 .425 .659 1.084 *3
    Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
    Generated 7/22/2010.
  11. Ken Says:

    Jose Hernandez the lowest with 13 HR in 2003, Mark Bellhorn with 17 in 2004 is next. They are the only 2 below 20.

  12. Ken Says:

    Cross-posted - guess I'll have to be faster next time.

  13. John Q Says:

    How was Dave Kingman "robbed" of the 1979 MVP? I grant you that Stargell should have had no part of the "Co-MVP", Winfield probably should have won it when you factor his home ballpark. Hernandez was a good choice, Schmidt could have been in the mix, Gary Carter, and Dave Parker if you wanted a Pirate.

  14. Bryan Mueller Says:

    Andy-

    I am trying to talk my wife into letting me spend the extra money but she uses the "I am a widow from April to October" excuse. Maybe I should put my foot down and say "Listen here woman..." The only reason I can safely say that is because she doesn't read this blog :). That being said, I will get the PI soon because I read every post but often feel limited in my responses because I can't use the PI tool. I know you have answered this question many times before, but is there a "how to" with the PI?

  15. Andy Says:

    Bryan, on the right side of your screen where there are categories for posts, you can find a "tutorials" tag and a "tutorial videos" tag. Click on those to see back posts on this blog with lots of helpful info. Those were all done, I believe, by Neil.

    Far be it from me to get involved in the decision-making process between you and your wife, but perhaps you can make the argument that having the PI would eliminate the need for manual searching and make everything faster...

  16. Bryan Mueller Says:

    Outstanding point Andy, I will certainly use that. Now we can say that baseball-refrence, in addition to offering the most complete list of baseball statistics in the world, also offers a little advice on life! Do I see a marriage-reference coming...just kidding, now back to baseball...

  17. Andy Says:

    LOL. It would make my day if a bunch of you readers submitted the idea of marriage-reference.com through the site feedback form. Heh.

  18. MStubel Says:

    Andy, I am doing some personal research and wanted to see if you could confirm something for me. I am looking for those players that have hit at least 40 home runs and compiled at least 130 RBI in at least 3 consecutive years. My research has produced eight names: Babe Ruth (7 years), Ryan Howard (4 years), Ken Griffery Jr. (4 years), Sammy Sosa (4 years), Alex Rodriguez (3 years), Juan Gonzalez (3 years), Jimmie Foxx (3 years) and David Ortiz (3 years). Do you know of any others? Thank you for your time and consideration.

  19. Andy Says:

    MStubel--unfortunately the PI does not have a season streak finder feature. I wish it did and it's something I've put on a wishlist in the past. So there is no automated way to look up your question. There are other readers here, though, who have their own databases and can probably run it for you.

    Actually, come to think of it, there haven't been all that many 40/130 seasons. Here are all the guys to have at least 3 in their career, although not necessarily consecutively. Should be easy for you to check this list for any you missed:

    Rk Yrs From To Age
    1 Babe Ruth 10 1920 1932 25-37
    2 Alex Rodriguez 5 2000 2007 24-31
    3 Jimmie Foxx 5 1932 1938 24-30
    4 Lou Gehrig 5 1927 1936 24-33
    5 Ryan Howard 4 2006 2009 26-29
    6 Sammy Sosa 4 1998 2001 29-32
    7 Manny Ramirez 4 1998 2005 26-33
    8 Ken Griffey 4 1996 1999 26-29
    9 David Ortiz 3 2004 2006 28-30
    10 Carlos Delgado 3 1999 2003 27-31
    11 Juan Gonzalez 3 1996 1998 26-28
    12 Hank Greenberg 3 1937 1940 26-29
    Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
    Generated 7/22/2010.
  20. Andy Says:

    Looks like you got them all---the 4 guys on my list who are not on yours (Greenberg, Delgado, Gehrig, and ManRam) didn't have 3 straight seasons.

  21. MStubel Says:

    Thanks a lot, Andy, I appreciate the timely response. Howard is projected to finish with 38 HR and 129 RBI this year. Considering he is usually better in the second half, 40/130 seems plausible. That would be his fifth consecutive year at that plateau, leaving him only Ruth to catch. That's amazing.

  22. DavidJ Says:

    Vlad might be the greatest free-swinger of all time. He swings at more pitches outside the strike zone than any player in the game (according to FanGraphs), but he's always had a strikeout rate well below the league average. He's never hit below .300--and only a couple times has he even been below .310--and obviously he hits for great power. He's also fourth all-time in intentional walks--he's drawn so many of them that his career walk rate is actually about league-average, remarkable for a free-swinger. You just can't pitch around him. He hits everything, and he hits it well. If there's a hitter who truly deserves the "feared" label, it's Vlad.

  23. Mike Says:

    Dont forget DiMaggio played in Yankee stadium where it is estimated he lost conservatively at least 50 HRs because it is not righty friendly. He also missed ages 28, 29, and 30 because of the war...right in his prime so you can also probably assume he would have had a HR/K > 1 in those years.

  24. BSK Says:

    Maybe a HoF poll for Vlad? Or is his election a foregone conclusion? I'd like to think it is but don't know what the prevailing consensus is.

  25. Mike Says:

    @10, if you use the linear weights of HR = 1.409 and K = -0.31 (http://www.tangotiger.net/RE9902event.html) you would need 1 HR for every 4.5 K to break even. So at 175 K you would need ~ 38.5 HRs.
    So only Buhner '97 and above make it except for Reynolds last year.

  26. Biff Says:

    There's no hitter to compare to Guerrero. I can say I've ever seen such a free swinger put up those type of numbers, particularly his average. Phenomenal reflexes. It's almost impossible to believe he's never struck 100 times in a season. He could quit today and would get my HOF vote, which would put another Expo in the Hall!!

  27. Richard Says:

    Another wacky thing about Guerrero this year: 20 HR and 20 UIBB. Dude loves to hack.

  28. barkfart Says:

    this is one of my favorite topics. We fans, and bb execs, are so fond of the sluggers that we overlook horrible bat control. I don't think a guy like Mark Reynolds woulda made it back in the 60s and 70s, where even great sluggers like Aaron only struck out every 8 or 9 at bats. You were expected to exercise decent bat control. Even a one dimensional slugger like kluziewski had good bat control. Today, guys like Thome and Reynolds strike out every 2.5 at bats. I think they just swing as hard as they can and hope for the best.

  29. barkfart Says:

    btw, any chance #1 is the real kingman?

  30. DavidJ Says:

    Barkfart,

    First you were lumping Thome in with Dave Kingman, now you're lumping him in with Mark Reynolds? Thome in his prime hit ~.285 and walked 100+ times a year. He wasn't just swinging as hard as he could and hoping for the best. That describes Jeff Francoeur--though he's probably the next guy you'll compare Jim Thome to.

  31. Joe Says:

    As I brought up in a previous post, the game has changed so much in the way hitters look at striking out. Back in the day, it was much more of a matter of pride to not strike out, and it was embarrassing if you did. Now, many sluggers simply don't really care how often they strike out, as long as they keep producing. Strikeouts are looked at much more as just another out now, and sluggers don't want to risk changing their swings. The list of the highest strikeout seasons in history is littered with seasons from just the last few years.

    But back to Vlad - BSK, as long as he doesn't suddenly turn into Scrubby McScrubberson and ruin the voters' memories of him when he gets on the ballot in ten years time or so, I think he's pretty much a lock. He's been one of the best hitters in the game for over a decade, and he used to have one of the best outfield arms in baseball, as well. For being such a free swinger, his lack of strikeouts is amazing. I've heard comparisons to Yogi Berra, which makes sense, but my initial point about this era compared to that era certainly makes Vlad even more impressive in this area.

  32. Johnny Twisto Says:

    Mike/25, I don't think it quite works like that. Even for free swingers, many other things can happen besides a HR or K.

  33. BSK Says:

    Some point to Vlad's lack of walks and he never had a great walk rate. But, he always had a good-to-great OBP. Now, maybe advanced stats will say otherwise, but as far as I'm concerned, a good OBP is a good OBP, whether it's acquired via high average and low walks or a lower average with more walks. I realize that when evaluating a playing, a high-average/low-walk guy is unlikely to sustain that production long term. But Vlad has clearly demonstrated the ability to, so power to him!

  34. DavidJ Says:

    BSK, Vlad rates just as well by the advanced stats as he does by the traditional ones. Vlad's career wOBA (a linear-weights-based stat scaled to OBP) is .396, and has been over .400 seven different seasons. His TAv (a similar stat, but scaled to batting average) is .308, and has been over .300 nine different seasons.

    Any way you slice his numbers, Vlad has been a great, great hitter. He should be a no-brainer HOF choice when his time comes.

  35. Jeff Says:

    The DiMaggio HR/SO ratio has always been one of the most impressive stats to me (and I'm a huge Ted Williams fan btw). 361 HRs and only 369 Ks!!

    I wonder what the record is for "most career home runs by a player with more home runs than strikeouts"?

  36. Johnny Twisto Says:

    DavidJ, what is TAv?

    Obviously it's not the same as Total Average though it appears to have a similar name.

  37. DavidJ Says:

    TAv (True Average) is just the new name for EqA (Equivalent Average).

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Equivalent_average

  38. BSK Says:

    DavidJ-

    Thanks. I didn't mean to imply that advanced stats would disagree with that. Only that some people seem so focused on certain stats that they disregard big picture. I genuinely hear people decry his low uIBB rate. Really? He always has a good-to-great OBP and puts up phenomenal numbers. He demonstrates he can maintain that production despite a single metric implying he can't. So who cares? I'm glad the more comprehensive numbers demonstrate his true greatness. There are certainly knocks on Guerrero. There were definitely areas of his game that were actually a detriment to his production and his team's success (such as his piss-poor SB numbers). But his walk rate is certainly not one of them.

  39. Gonzo Says:

    Great job on the blog, Andy. I happened upon Joe Dimaggio's page and noticed he won the 1947 MVP award with some, shall I say, pedestrian stats. Other things I noticed about that season:

    - 7 of the top 15 vote getters were Yankees
    - Ted Williams should have won in a landslide
    - not one Yankee had 100 RBIs
    - not one Yankee hit more than 20 homers
    - only 3 of their pitchers had double digit wins with 19 being the most
    - the NL MVP may be even more shocking. Mize & Kiner each hit 51 homers and .300 - and placed 3rd and 6th respectively

    Have you ever done a post about this season? If so, I'd love to read it.

  40. DaveKingman Says:

    I almost became someone who hit over 40 home runs in two different seasons - one whilst batting over .300 and another batting under .300. Missed it by a bit on each end in 1979 and 1982. For that reason alone, shouldn't I have won at least one MVP?

  41. Gerry Says:

    A lot of what's written here about Guerrero was being written about Berra 50 years ago. A notorious bad-ball hitter, famed for swinging at pitches above his head (and smacking them down the line for doubles).

  42. Andy Says:

    #35 Jeff, here is the list:

    http://bbref.com/pi/shareit/r4Chk

    Keith McDonald holds the record with 3 HR and 2 K. Two players--Mark Worrell and Estaban Yan--have homered without ever striking out.

  43. dukeofflatbush Says:

    @ Gerry and David

    I haven't seen great video of Berra, but the anecdotal reports of his out-of-strike-zone prowess is pretty substantial. But having watched Vlad, and watched him from multiple angles and in HD, I sometimes cannot believe what I am seeing. He gets totally fooled, his butt down the third base line, his shoulders and elbows committed to a fastball, and he flicks his wrists at a change in the dirt and hits it with authority consistently. It almost reminds me of when Miguel Cabrera hit an intentional walk pitch for a single. I wish I remembered the specifics of that at bat. But Vlad has made a career of hitting pitcher's 'waste pitches.'
    Granted the guy is a giant with long arms, as opposed to Berra being short and squat. But he has virtually no strike zone judgement, and it doesn't affect him in the least. The guys a monster. I'm glad he's doing well in Texas.