Dan Uggla and good offensive second basemen
Posted by Andy on November 17, 2010
Dan Uggla was traded yesterday from the Marlins to the Braves, after his former team was unable to sign him to a contract extension beyond the 2011 season. This was somewhat surprising given that the Marlins were under some pressure to spend money after reports surfaced that the team had actually been very profitable in 2008 and 2009. Given how good and how recognizable Uggla is, I would have expected the Marlins to find a way to sign him to a longer-term deal.
Anyway, now that Uggla's moving on to the Braves, let's take a look at just how good he is.
Since 1901, a second baseman has hit 30 homers in a season just 28 times and Uggla leads the way with 4 such seasons:
| Rk | Yrs | From | To | Age | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dan Uggla | 4 | 2007 | 2010 | 27-30 | Ind. Seasons |
| 2 | Chase Utley | 3 | 2006 | 2009 | 27-30 | Ind. Seasons |
| 3 | Alfonso Soriano | 3 | 2002 | 2005 | 26-29 | Ind. Seasons |
| 4 | Jeff Kent | 3 | 1998 | 2002 | 30-34 | Ind. Seasons |
| 5 | Rogers Hornsby | 3 | 1922 | 1929 | 26-33 | Ind. Seasons |
| 6 | Bret Boone | 2 | 2001 | 2003 | 32-34 | Ind. Seasons |
| 7 | Ryne Sandberg | 2 | 1989 | 1990 | 29-30 | Ind. Seasons |
| 8 | Joe Gordon | 2 | 1940 | 1948 | 25-33 | Ind. Seasons |
| 9 | Ian Kinsler | 1 | 2009 | 2009 | 27-27 | Ind. Seasons |
| 10 | Aaron Hill | 1 | 2009 | 2009 | 27-27 | Ind. Seasons |
| 11 | Brandon Phillips | 1 | 2007 | 2007 | 26-26 | Ind. Seasons |
| 12 | Jay Bell | 1 | 1999 | 1999 | 33-33 | Ind. Seasons |
| 13 | Bobby Grich | 1 | 1979 | 1979 | 30-30 | Ind. Seasons |
| 14 | Davey Johnson | 1 | 1973 | 1973 | 30-30 | Ind. Seasons |
Granted, Uggla has hit 31, 32, or 33 HR in each of those seasons so picking 30 as a cutoff really helps him. By comparison, 34+ homers by a 2B has been done 8 times, but never by Uggla--Soriano and Hornsby did it 3 times apiece.
Having just finished his Age 30 season, Uggla joins a list of just 64 players (any defensive position) since 1901 to post an Age 30 season with 130 OPS+, 30 HR, and 100 RBI. The other guys to do it in 2010 were Adam Dunn and Albert Pujols, and the last few before that were Jason Bay, David Ortiz, Lance Berkman, Alex Rodriguez, Paul Konerko, and Vladimir Guerrero. Pretty good company there. The only other second basemen to do it were Jeff Kent, Ryne Sandberg, and Bobby Grich.
Uggla has played 5 full seasons and a total of 776 career games. Since 1920, he has the most HR by a second baseman in his first 776 games:
| Rk | Player | HR ▾ |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dan Uggla | 154 |
| 2 | Alfonso Soriano | 153 |
| 3 | Chase Utley | 136 |
| 4 | Joe Gordon | 125 |
| 5 | Brandon Phillips | 96 |
| 6 | Robinson Cano | 93 |
| 7 | Ian Kinsler | 92 |
| 8 | Juan Samuel | 89 |
| 9 | Jeff Kent | 89 |
| 10 | Rickie Weeks | 88 |
Over that same number of games to start a career since 1920, he has the 4th-most RBI:
| Rk | Player | RBI ▾ |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Joe Gordon | 507 |
| 2 | Chase Utley | 501 |
| 3 | Bobby Doerr | 479 |
| 4 | Dan Uggla | 464 |
| 5 | Tony Lazzeri | 444 |
| 6 | Alfonso Soriano | 439 |
| 7 | Marty McManus | 424 |
| 8 | Robinson Cano | 418 |
| 9 | Charlie Gehringer | 405 |
| 10 | Carlos Baerga | 394 |
But interestingly, among second basemen through their Age 30 seasons, he's only 6th in HR and 38th in RBI since he got a comparatively late start in the majors. In fact, since 1920, he has just the 77th-most games played at 2B by Age 30.
The bottom line is that even though Uggla just posted his best season and it came in just his 5th season in the majors, there's a pretty good chance that it was the best season he'll ever have because he'll be over 30 come the 2011 season. I'm not suggesting he isn't going to be good--he'll be good--but it's reasonable to expect a decline from this point forward and his career numbers are likely to be impressive but well short of the Hall of Fame due to his late start.
November 17th, 2010 at 9:52 am
Not meaning to be pedantic about the whole thing, but don't you mean that second basemen have hit 30-plus homers twenty-eight times -- albeit just 14 different players account for those performances?
November 17th, 2010 at 10:09 am
You're not being pedantic, I just wrote the wrong number. Fixed now, thanks.
November 17th, 2010 at 10:25 am
In the strike-shortened 1981 season, Bobby Grich was one of 4 American Leaguers to hit 22 home runs. Grich played 100 games that season, and the league leader played 109. He easily could have hit eight more in the two months that were canceled.
November 17th, 2010 at 11:00 am
I don't like defending cheap teams crying that they "can't" compete, but I do like playing devil's advocate, so.... Second basemen tend not to age that well, and since Uggla is not a very good defender, Florida may be right not to invest that much in a guy who may not be able to handle his position in a few years. If I remember correctly, FLA offered him $48M over 4 years, which I think is a pretty decent offer. I suppose he could do better than that as a free agent, but not by much, and he's not a free agent. If you accept that FLA isn't going to have a payroll over $60M this season, it makes sense that they don't heavily invest in a player like Uggla. They've given long-term contracts to Johnson and Ramirez, who are superstars or have superstar potential. Uggla is a good player, not a great one, and if he keeps playing more like '09 than '10 going forward, he's not worth $15M or whatever he is looking for.
I am not familiar enough with FLA's system to know whether they have a long-term replacement at 2B. And perhaps they could have gotten a better deal.
November 17th, 2010 at 11:02 am
Good focus on this topic. Especially being a Tigers fan like me. You go from having a guy like Polanco- a guy who really handles a bat well, and in ways that really defy quantification- to a below average schlub like Adam Kennedy, or a hopeless rookie like Sizemore.... it's just demoralizing. A second baseman who earns his keep at the plate is a thing to cherish.
November 17th, 2010 at 11:04 am
referring to #5 Johnny Twisto.
For the bargain basement price they got him for, even if Atlanta doesn't sign him long-term they got a mombo-bargain.
November 17th, 2010 at 11:16 am
We seem to have a lot of stars in this era who got very late starts to their major-league career. I don't know why this is, other than the newfound conservatism of organizations when it comes to promoting their top prospects. I'm tempted to study this in a bit more detail...
November 17th, 2010 at 11:32 am
Okay, quick and dirty, comparing the age of the top 20 position players in WAR in their first 400 PA seasons (plus some fudging if he was like 5 PA short or had 4 seasons of 300 PA or something):
2010: 23.15
1980: 22.00
Guys who became regulars at 24 or over:
2010: 9
1980: 4
I didn't know quite what to do with Ben Oglivie, who came up when he was 23 but was a part time player for like 5 years, only clearing 400 PA when he was 28. I put his age in as 26, as by then he had had about a 1000 PA.
Stars traditionally get called up to the majors by very early ages-their talent generally tends to force the hands of their parent organizations. Maybe this is due to a higher proportion of college players in the majors now, or perhaps a higher level of competition.
November 17th, 2010 at 12:05 pm
[...] Dan Uggla and good offensive second basemen » Baseball-Reference … [...]
November 17th, 2010 at 12:35 pm
[...] when I wrote about Dan Uggla I noticed how another recent star second baseman, Craig Biggio, also has a double G in his [...]
November 17th, 2010 at 1:06 pm
Trades are a two way street. Why is everyone jumping on the Marlins without at least considering this from their side?
Uggla is 31, or will be on Opening Day.
He wants a four or five year deal in the neighborhood of 15-16 million per season.
I don’t care about his offense, on no planet in the galaxy is Uggla worth that amount.
ESPECIALLY at the end of his deal, when he likely will have higher error totals than HR totals.
The Marlins likely looked at their lineup possibilities for the next couple of years and saw guys like Gaby Sanchez, Logan Morrison, Hanley Ramirez, a healthy Chris Coughlan, Mike Stanton, maybe Kyle Shipworth, maybe Matt Dominguez and realized all these guys, with the exception of Ramirez and Coughlan, will still be under team control AFTER Uggla’s new contract expires.
I love it when teams tell players “take it or leave it” and the player calls their bluff.
Florida ended up with a defensive upgrade at a defensive position and got a hard throwing lefty for the bullpen who may end up a candidate for the closer’s role.
On paper, the Marlins got screwed.
The trade isn't THAT lopsided.
November 17th, 2010 at 2:01 pm
It is lopsided. Uggla is going to be a Type A free agent. I would rather have the picks than what the Marlins received.
November 17th, 2010 at 2:33 pm
NEXT year he'll be a free agent. This year, the Marlins would have an unhappy player and questions all season.
What they got was some salary relief, 2 guys who they think can help, and rid of a player who didnt' really seem to want to be there.
I bet they could have done better, though.
November 17th, 2010 at 3:58 pm
John DF-
Something I've always wondered about is why MLB has a minor league system in a way that no other league does (at least not in America). Obviously, it's not an apples-to-apples comparison becuase of how the other leagues rely on the college system to serve as a de facto minor leagues.
Yet, the NFL is prepared for 22-year-olds and 22-year-olds are, in one way or another, generally prepared to contribute to an NFL team.
In the NBA, we often see players even younger.
And while we do see the precocious MLB player from time to time, there is generally a perception that there is just no place in the game for 18-year-olds or 19-year-olds.
I wonder how MLB teams would look with no minor leagues. Would they stop drafting high school players all-together? Would young players fill rosters at the expense of older vets? Would the quality of play improve or suffer? I think the obvious answer is to say it would suffer, but maybe there is good reason to believe it wouldn't. Why do we assume that excellent college players are not ready for the pros in baseball but not in other sports? Is the gap between college/high school and the pros far greater here than elsewhere? Is this a perception more than a reality? I'd be curious to hear what brighter minds than I think.
November 17th, 2010 at 4:05 pm
BSK,
A fast answer would be Wood Bats. The College players and High School players don't use wood bats, which require an adjustment in hitting. In a roundabout way, it also causes an adjustment in pitching. Pitchers don't throw inside as much with the metal bats, and have to learn to pitch inside at the pro level.
November 17th, 2010 at 4:51 pm
Why do we assume that excellent college players are not ready for the pros in baseball but not in other sports? Is the gap between college/high school and the pros far greater here than elsewhere?
The major difference is that basketball and football seem more reliant on "athleticism," while baseball is more reliant on "skills." (Both are needed in all sports, but I'm just talking about where they are on the continuum.) Athletes' physical abilities may peak in their early-mid 20s, but that is generally not enough to succeed in MLB if the complementary skills are not yet refined.
November 17th, 2010 at 7:15 pm
Interesting that 7 of the players in the "most HR by a second baseman in his first 776 games" table are still active. And 2 others retired in the last 15 years.
November 17th, 2010 at 7:20 pm
Twisto is correct on his point. My 13 yr old son has been playing baseball since he was 5 and played on a Babe Ruth travel team this last summer. No way he or any of the other kids make that team without years of working on skills. On the other hand, this fall, he played football for the first time ever and started both ways. No way on a high level of baseball. I've seen several kids that can throw a baseball real hard that were worthless on the mound. As complex as football is, it is relatively easy to stick an athlete in a position (other than QB, which my son did not play).
As for wood bats, I know some smaller college conferences/levels have gone to wood bats mostly due to costs. Many of the high end composite bats break easier than the wood ones and cost up to $1000 compared to 50 bucks for a good wood bat.
So what wonder juice was Hornsby drinking during those handful of epic seasons?
November 17th, 2010 at 8:51 pm
@8 We're seeing more players debut at older ages because there are more ways for players to hold on in the minor leagues these days:
1. Independent leagues.
2. Expansion, with the additional farm systems it brings (although that is slightly balanced by the cutbacks in the number of minor league teams below low class A that some teams have made).
3. Better ways of treating what were formerly career-ending injuries, such as Tommy John surgery.
4. Specialist roles, including "LOOGY" pitchers and of course the DH.
5. Free agency after a certain number of years, which may help a player stuck in AAA below a superstar at the same position on the big league club.
And as someone else mentioned, more players have played college ball before turning pro.
November 18th, 2010 at 3:48 pm
I so wanted Uggla to be a Dodger and Im sure we could have put together a package that was better than Atls. Then I started looking Jeff Kent made More errors than uggla only once. Kent played 3rd and bounced around in his early career.Kent batting avg is 35 points higher and a better k-bb ratio. Yeah I know he had Bonds Dan had Hanley. He wants Utley money and 5 years.I agree with the previous in that its a safe bet he makes more errors than has HRs in the last year of his deal.
November 18th, 2010 at 9:00 pm
I would like to see high school and college BB go to wooden bats. They have changed the game for the worse at those levels. Part of the problem with going to wooden bats is the supply of good wood. One solution to that would be to use laminated bats. I have never seen one in person, just on web sites like area51.com, but I feel certain that they would have characteristics more like solid wood than aluminum. And it would bring back the crack of the bat, which would be a huge improvement over that nasty "tong" sound.