Inherited Runners Scoring %
Posted by Andy on May 10, 2010
Or: Why You Shouldn't Get Too Excited About Tyler Clippard
Here are the 30 pitchers so far this season to inherit at least 5 runners and allow at least half of them to score:
| Rk | Player | IS% | IR | Tm | G | GF | W | L | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | HR | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jeremy Accardo | 100.00% | 6 | TOR | 5 | 2 | 0 | 1 | .000 | 6.2 | 12 | 6 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 8.10 | 53 | 0 |
| 2 | Juan Cruz | 100.00% | 6 | KCR | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5.1 | 9 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 7 | 3.38 | 131 | 0 | |
| 3 | Tyler Walker | 80.00% | 5 | WSN | 9 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 16.1 | 17 | 10 | 10 | 2 | 17 | 5.51 | 78 | 4 | |
| 4 | Leo Rosales | 80.00% | 5 | ARI | 9 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1.000 | 10.0 | 15 | 9 | 9 | 6 | 9 | 8.10 | 58 | 1 |
| 5 | Randy Williams | 79.00% | 14 | CHW | 13 | 0 | 0 | 1 | .000 | 11.1 | 14 | 7 | 6 | 16 | 12 | 4.76 | 94 | 0 |
| 6 | Micah Owings | 78.00% | 9 | CIN | 9 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 1.000 | 16.1 | 16 | 8 | 8 | 7 | 20 | 4.41 | 99 | 1 |
| 7 | Raul Valdes | 75.00% | 8 | NYM | 11 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 16.1 | 16 | 6 | 5 | 6 | 18 | 2.76 | 153 | 1 | |
| 8 | Casey Janssen | 75.00% | 8 | TOR | 12 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 1.000 | 12.1 | 14 | 8 | 8 | 7 | 9 | 5.84 | 71 | 0 |
| 9 | Mark Hendrickson | 71.00% | 7 | BAL | 11 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 13.0 | 17 | 9 | 9 | 4 | 14 | 6.23 | 70 | 2 | |
| 10 | Brad Thomas | 71.00% | 7 | DET | 7 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1.000 | 16.2 | 22 | 10 | 10 | 9 | 6 | 5.40 | 81 | 0 |
| 11 | Brian Stokes | 70.00% | 10 | LAA | 15 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 16.0 | 24 | 16 | 13 | 16 | 15 | 7.31 | 59 | 3 | |
| 12 | Matt Palmer | 67.00% | 9 | LAA | 9 | 0 | 0 | 1 | .000 | 23.0 | 31 | 18 | 16 | 16 | 11 | 6.26 | 68 | 1 |
| 13 | James Russell | 63.00% | 8 | CHC | 12 | 2 | 0 | 1 | .000 | 11.0 | 10 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 10 | 2.45 | 188 | 2 |
| 14 | Brandon League | 60.00% | 5 | SEA | 15 | 2 | 3 | 2 | .600 | 17.2 | 16 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 12 | 2.04 | 203 | 1 |
| 15 | Daniel Bard | 60.00% | 10 | BOS | 16 | 1 | 0 | 1 | .000 | 17.0 | 12 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 22 | 3.18 | 141 | 3 |
| 16 | Jonathan Broxton | 60.00% | 5 | LAD | 12 | 10 | 2 | 0 | 1.000 | 11.2 | 11 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 19 | 1.54 | 264 | 0 |
| 17 | Jeff Fulchino | 57.00% | 7 | HOU | 12 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 11.1 | 9 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 15 | 3.97 | 109 | 2 | |
| 18 | Tyler Clippard | 56.00% | 18 | WSN | 16 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 1.000 | 23.2 | 12 | 2 | 2 | 12 | 29 | 0.76 | 560 | 1 |
| 19 | Jason Bulger | 54.00% | 13 | LAA | 13 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 12.1 | 15 | 7 | 7 | 9 | 12 | 5.11 | 85 | 2 | |
| 20 | George Sherrill | 54.00% | 13 | LAD | 17 | 3 | 0 | 1 | .000 | 11.1 | 14 | 11 | 10 | 12 | 8 | 7.94 | 51 | 1 |
| 21 | Jim Johnson | 50.00% | 8 | BAL | 10 | 3 | 1 | 1 | .500 | 9.2 | 15 | 7 | 7 | 4 | 9 | 6.52 | 67 | 1 |
| 22 | Miguel Batista | 50.00% | 8 | WSN | 11 | 5 | 0 | 2 | .000 | 19.0 | 14 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 8 | 5.68 | 75 | 3 |
| 23 | Grant Balfour | 50.00% | 6 | TBR | 12 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 13.2 | 10 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 13 | 1.98 | 219 | 1 | |
| 24 | Scott Atchison | 50.00% | 8 | BOS | 7 | 2 | 0 | 1 | .000 | 10.1 | 10 | 8 | 7 | 4 | 9 | 6.10 | 74 | 3 |
| 25 | Carlos Zambrano | 50.00% | 6 | CHC | 9 | 0 | 1 | 2 | .333 | 25.1 | 35 | 20 | 19 | 11 | 31 | 6.75 | 67 | 4 |
| 26 | Renyel Pinto | 50.00% | 10 | FLA | 13 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 9.0 | 10 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 8 | 3.00 | 147 | 0 | |
| 27 | Craig Breslow | 50.00% | 6 | OAK | 13 | 3 | 0 | 1 | .000 | 11.1 | 11 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 13 | 3.97 | 106 | 2 |
| 28 | Brandon Medders | 50.00% | 8 | SFG | 10 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 11.1 | 18 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 7 | 4.76 | 94 | 1 | |
| 29 | David Robertson | 50.00% | 6 | NYY | 11 | 1 | 0 | 2 | .000 | 7.2 | 16 | 11 | 11 | 4 | 11 | 12.91 | 33 | 3 |
| 30 | Peter Moylan | 50.00% | 6 | ATL | 15 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1.000 | 12.2 | 11 | 3 | 3 | 10 | 12 | 2.13 | 198 | 0 |
This shows how deceptive relievers' stats can be. Sure a lot of these guys have ugly numbers. Take Matt Palmer for example. (I can hear Angels fans now: "Take him PLEASE!!" He's got a 6.26 ERA over 23 innings and has also allowed 6 our of 9 inherit runners to score.
But then take a look at Tyler Clippard. Raphy pointed out earlier that Clip has 6 wins already. He has an ERA of 0.76. But he's also allowed 10 out of 18 inherit runners to score. In his game logs you can see that 4 of his wins came along with blown saves. In each of those 4 games he inherited runners and allowed at least 1 to score. In another game, he came in with the Nationals down 3-1 and walked in a run to make it 4-1. He got the win because the offense rallied an inning later. In fact, it was Ryan Zimmerman pinch-hitting for Clippard who hit the go-ahead homer. Cheap win.
In yet another game on April 15th, Clippard came in with the bases loaded and allowed all 3 runners to score.
Bottom line? This guy has had more than his share of luck so far to get the stats he has and it is unlikely to continue.
Another guy with deceptive numbers is Daniel Bard. He has a nice ERA but has allowed 6 out of 10 inherited runners to score and has been instrumental in a few of the Red Sox's losses even though he was pegged with only one of them on his own stat sheet.
Bard had a 3-for-3 game over the weekend, meaning an occasion in which he allowed all 3 inherited runners to score. Such games should be easy to find but for some reason the IR and IS stats are not yet included in the Pitching Game Finder in the PI.
When I think about vultured wins, I always think about Mitch Williams in 1991. Looking at those logs, however, he had only 3 blown-save-wins that year although they all came in a 15-day stretch in August. The truth is that Williams had a good year that year, including an incredible string of 4 consecutive appearances August 2nd to August 7th where he pitched into extra innings each time and got the win each time. I suppose that season is memorable because he got 12 wins total, good enough for 3rd on a sub-.500 Phillies team.
May 10th, 2010 at 2:54 pm
Randy Williams' stat line intrigued me — with 16 BB allowed in 11.1 innings, I figured he must have been walking in runs all over the place. So far, though, only one of his inherited runners has been walked in. What's amazing about Williams is that, of the 14 hits he has given up, 10 have been doubles. He has allowed 11 inherited runners to score; nine have scored on doubles.
Another fun Randy Williams stat: He has walked or struck out 28 of the 64 batters he has faced. That's 43.8%, obviously a very high percentage. Career-high rates for three other pitchers known for doing the same thing: Mitch Williams, 1987, 47.5%; Bobby Witt, 1987, 44.6%; and Nolan Ryan, 1977, 42.8%. So call Randy Williams Wild Thing II.
May 10th, 2010 at 6:21 pm
And then there's the deceptiveness of inherited-runner stats. The best bullpen in the majors so far in 2010 at not allowing inherited runners to score belongs to the Cleveland Indians. Their pen has allowed five of 61 runners (8.2%) to score. (Contrast that with the rates of the Angels and Diamondbacks, who are both at just over 50%.) However, the Indians' bullpen has allowed more than a hit per inning, has a combined ERA of 3.90, has walked 51 batters in 83 innings and has struck out only 54. Ace Chris Perez has lost two games that he entered with two-run ninth-inning leads and has walked more batters than he has struck out. Laffey, Sipp, Smith and Wright have all done good jobs at stranding runners that they've inherited, but realistically, this is one of the weaker bullpens in the American League.
May 10th, 2010 at 11:51 pm
[...] Baseball-Reference Blog » Blog Archive » Inherited Runners Scoring % [...]
May 12th, 2010 at 12:16 am
well, it caught up to him...
IP H R ER BB K
T. Clippard (L, 6-1; BS, 5) 0.1 4 3 3 0 1
plus another inherited runner scored.