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Sunday roundup

Posted by Andy on May 3, 2010

Lots of interesting things happened yesterday. Let's take a look.

But first a couple of announcements:

Complete game losses

Zack Greinke earned himself a complete-game loss yesterday, the 7th in MLB so far this season:

Rk Player Date Tm Opp Rslt App,Dec IP H R ER BB SO HR Pit Str GSc
1 Zack Greinke 2010-05-02 KCR TBR L 0-1 CG 8 ,L 8.0 4 1 1 0 6 1 87 65 76
2 Carl Pavano 2010-04-29 MIN DET L 0-3 CG 8 ,L 8.0 7 3 2 2 5 0 102 62 61
3 Tommy Hanson 2010-04-25 ATL NYM L 0-1 CG 5 ,L 5.0 5 1 0 2 8 0 93 65 61
4 Adam Wainwright 2010-04-24 STL SFG L 0-2 CG 8 ,L 8.0 7 2 2 1 4 0 112 76 63
5 CC Sabathia 2010-04-22 NYY OAK L 2-4 CG 8 ,L 8.0 4 4 3 6 5 1 97 51 59
6 Kevin Millwood 2010-04-21 BAL SEA L 1-4 CG 8 ,L 8.0 6 4 4 3 4 0 112 70 55
7 C.J. Wilson 2010-04-16 TEX NYY L 1-5 CG 6 ,L 6.0 7 5 3 3 5 0 112 66 44
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 5/3/2010.

With complete games (win or loss) so rare these days, I find the CG loss to be particularly bitter. I feel like if a pitcher can go the distance, he deserves to win, since so few pitchers can go the distance anymore.

I ran some quick numbers and so far this season there have been 16 CG wins to go along with the 7 CG losses above. That means the pitcher throwing a CG has won 69.6% of the time. Last year, the numbers were 123 CG wins and 29 CG losses, for a W% of 80.1%.

Here's a bit more historical data: In 1990 there were 325 CG wins 104 CG losses for a W% of 75.8%. In 1970 there were 742 CG wins and 110 CG losses for a W% of 87.1%.

So, yeah, there have been a few hard-luck cases so far this year.

NL RBI Leaders

Among these top 21 players the Phillies and the Diamondbacks each have 4 guys and the Cubs have 3. These teams are 3 of the top 4 run-scorers in the NL so far and I think that the distribution is a good sign.

Time to worry about Johan Santana

Mets fans, if you weren't already worried, it's time to start worrying about Johan Santana.

Yesterday's performance was truly awful. He tied his own career worst for most HR allowed in a start:

Rk Date Tm Opp Rslt App,Dec IP H R ER BB SO HR Pit Str GSc
1 2010-05-02 NYM PHI L 5-11 GS-4 ,L 3.2 8 10 10 2 1 4 71 48 4
2 2009-06-09 NYM PHI W 6-5 GS-7 ,W 7.0 8 5 5 1 2 4 91 71 42
3 2007-07-23 MIN TOR L 4-6 GS-5 ,L 5.0 7 6 6 2 4 4 92 58 31
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 5/3/2010.

Note the 10 runs he allowed as well as his game score of 4. Not 40 or even 24. It was 4.

That was the most ER he's ever allowed in a game:

Rk Date Tm Opp Rslt App,Dec IP H R ER BB SO HR Pit Str GSc
1 2010-05-02 NYM PHI L 5-11 GS-4 ,L 3.2 8 10 10 2 1 4 71 48 4
2 2009-06-14 NYM NYY L 0-15 GS-4 ,L 3.0 9 9 9 2 3 1 82 48 6
3 2002-07-23 MIN CHW L 7-8 GS-4 ,L 3.2 7 8 8 2 4 3 88 58 17
4 2005-05-17 MIN TOR L 3-10 GS-6 ,L 5.1 9 7 7 1 5 2 92 64 26
5 2004-05-23 MIN CHW L 7-17 GS-3 ,L 3.0 10 7 7 2 2 2 73 47 11
6 2003-09-05 MIN TEX W 10-7 GS-4 4.0 8 7 7 2 6 2 80 55 22
7 2000-09-21 MIN CHW L 4-9 GS-5 ,L 4.2 7 7 7 3 4 0 103 66 23
8 2000-04-12 MIN BOS L 3-7 GS-4 ,L 3.2 10 7 7 1 2 0 87 48 14
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 5/3/2010.

And he managed to "top" that terrible game score of 6 he registered against the Yankees last year. Those two games now stand as his two worst performances ever, ranked by game score:

Rk Date Tm Opp Rslt App,Dec IP H R ER BB SO HR Pit Str GSc
1 2010-05-02 NYM PHI L 5-11 GS-4 ,L 3.2 8 10 10 2 1 4 71 48 4
2 2009-06-14 NYM NYY L 0-15 GS-4 ,L 3.0 9 9 9 2 3 1 82 48 6
3 2004-05-23 MIN CHW L 7-17 GS-3 ,L 3.0 10 7 7 2 2 2 73 47 11
4 2000-04-12 MIN BOS L 3-7 GS-4 ,L 3.2 10 7 7 1 2 0 87 48 14
5 2002-07-23 MIN CHW L 7-8 GS-4 ,L 3.2 7 8 8 2 4 3 88 58 17
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 5/3/2010.

Not pretty stuff. Santana just hasn't been the same guy since the Mets acquired him.

Just how bad was Mark Teixeira's April?

We've heard a lot lately about how Mark Teixeira always starts slowly. Here are all of his career Aprils:

I Year G PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS TB
2003 19 73 64 3 12 2 1 2 7 7 13 .188 .288 .344 .631 22
2004 8 37 29 7 8 2 0 2 7 8 7 .276 .432 .552 .984 16
2005 25 112 103 15 27 5 0 6 14 7 17 .262 .321 .485 .807 50
2006 25 115 99 19 29 9 1 3 13 16 21 .293 .391 .495 .886 49
2007 25 107 91 14 21 4 0 2 6 15 21 .231 .346 .341 .686 31
2008 27 120 110 16 30 9 0 4 17 10 14 .273 .333 .464 .797 51
2009 19 90 70 11 14 3 0 3 10 17 12 .200 .367 .371 .738 26
2010 22 100 81 11 11 4 0 2 9 17 18 .136 .300 .259 .559 21
Career Total 170 754 647 96 152 38 2 24 83 97 123 .235 .342 .411 .753 266
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 5/3/2010.

So, yeah, he's never been great in April but he was the worst ever in April 2010. His May is already looking a lot better, including a 4-hit game yesterday, but maybe somebody should tell him that his contract requires him to play 6 months, not 5 months. (Or maybe Steinbrenner's contracts these days require 7 months, assuming October baseball.)

Jason Varitek and David Ortiz

Nobody is helping make the Red Sox's decision to release David Ortiz easier than Jason Varitek. Tek has amassed 5 HR and 9 RBI in just 37 plate appearances, coming in at an OPS+ over 200. He's not going to hit that way all year but it makes it easier to play V-Mart a little at DH if Tek can catch. Meanwhile Ortiz has just 3 HR and 6 RBI in 71 plate appearance, plus 23 strikeouts and already an overall WPA of -1.2. I don't see anyway that Ortiz will be on the Red Sox roster come the All-Star break. My best guess is that he will succumb to a mystery injury and go down to extended spring training for the Red Sox and then retire at the end of the year.

19 Responses to “Sunday roundup”

  1. Andrew Says:

    Santana just hasn't been the same guy since the Mets acquired him.

    Um... you do realize that the most of the poor outings that show up in your lists above were when he was with the Twins?

    I would say his performance may have decreased somewhat in the last year or so, but in 2008, his first year with NY, he led the league in ERA and IP.

    In any case, his 2010 hasn't been that bad except for two unfortunate innings-- he gave up 12 in those two innings and only 4 in the remaining 32 that he has pitched this year.

    So, unless you were expecting Cy Young-quality Santana circa 2004 (and who is?), I'd say Mets fans don't need to worry at all about their ace.

  2. Andy Says:

    Yeah I realize that. I also realize that he had a lot more years with the Twins to amass that number of poor starts, but those 2 at the top are by far the worst.

    I agree that a less effective Santana is still a good pitcher. He's just not an ace anymore.

  3. DavidRF Says:

    Santana was notorious for being a slow starter when he was in Minnesota. In his aforementioned amazing 2004 season, his ERA was over 5.50 as late as Memorial Day.

    Plus this is just a lone fluke start. His ERA was 2.08 yesterday morning.

  4. DavidRF Says:

    Also on Sunday, Wilson Ramos did something that ESPN and MLB reports has only been done 21 times in modern history.

    A play index search "From 1920 to 2010, In first 1 games, (requiring H>=4)" finds twelve of them (including Ramos). Does anyone have information on the other 9?

  5. Andy Says:

    I will post it later today.

  6. Vidor Says:

    This is nitpicking, and I do realize that they count as CGs, but it's hard to describe a pitcher as going the distance when they threw less than nine innings, as all the CG losers in your list above did.

  7. Andy Says:

    They count as complete games by official stat rules of MLB. Period.

  8. Rich Says:

    Yeah, it's not the pitcher's fault that they couldn't pitch the 9th since the game was over.

    Some people I talked to said Santana's pitching motion looked really odd last night. I say "odd" because I don't remember the exact terminology they used, perhaps 'dropping his elbow' and so forth.

    Anyone else notice this?

  9. Austyn Says:

    That was Greinke's second complete game L when only giving up 1 ER run, it happened last year versus the Angels for his first L of the season.

  10. Dave Says:

    Andy, in saying that Santana is "just not an ace anymore," what standard of "ace" are you holding him to? We all know that he's no longer as dominant as he was in his prime with the Twins, when he was a 230-strikeout, sub-1.000 WHIP, 5/1 K/BB pitcher. Even still, in 65 starts with the Mets, he has a 143 ERA+, a 1.184 WHIP, and a 3.18 K/BB. That's a decline, but still superb. He's 49/65 in quality starts (and only six of those QS have been the "cheap" 3-in-6 kind). Coming into last night's game, he had a 2.08 ERA with 28/9 K/BB in 30.1 innings to start the season, and had given up one run or less in four of his five starts. Sounds like he's still an ace to me, and one brutal inning doesn't change that.

    If you really want to keep things in perspective, note that Pedro Martinez had a game score of 8 on a July 18 start in 1999--a season in which his average game score was 69 and his ERA+ was 243. Even the best can be the worst for one day.

  11. Andy Says:

    Dave, I think you might be reading more into my comments than I really intended. Santana is not as good as he used to be but it still a very good pitcher. He's experienced the normal decline expected for a guy of his age. He's had some injury scares and has sprinkled more bad starts since the trade. That's all I really mean.

    I'd be curious to see the top QS fractions over the last few years. Maybe I will look that up and post about it.

  12. DoubleDiamond Says:

    I was also going to point out that all of the complete game losses were eight innings on the road plus one rain-shortened game. If any were walk-off 8 1/3 innings, 8 2/3 innings, or 8 innings with winning run scored in the bottom of the 9th with none out, would they show up in the list as 8 or as 8 and some fraction?

    I'm actually surprised to see two National League games in the list. If an NL team is losing that late in the game, they're almost certainly going to hit for the pitcher at some point. Most likely, the pitcher's spot didn't come up in the top of the 7th or 8th, and if it then came up in the top of the 9th, they did hit for him then, without at least tying the game. Yes, a pitcher gets credit for a complete game if he was lifted for a pinch hitter in what turns out to be his team's last at-bat.

  13. Vidor Says:

    As I said, I'm aware of how MLB counts complete games. But eight innings is not "going the distance", and getting wistful about an eight-inning complete game (much less a five- or six-inning "complete game", as two of the examples above are) seems a little bit weird to me.

    Actually, this is one of MLB's stranger scoring rules. It directly conflicts with the requirement that a no-hitter has to go nine innings to be an official no-hitter. How can Andy Hawkins get credit for a complete game in which he allowed zero hits but not be credited for a no-hitter?

    It would make more sense if credit for a complete game was withheld for outings of less than nine innings. Then, once we've taken care of that, we can do away with the practice of not charging an at-bat for a sacrifice fly (how is it a "sacrifice" if you swing away?) and the equally bizarre custom of crediting an RBI on a bases-loaded walk (you get a run BATTED in when you don't bat the ball?).

  14. Andy Says:

    re: bases-loaded walk---you're BATTING aren't you? You're AT-BAT aren't you? You're the BATTER aren't you? So why shouldn't get a run BATTED in?

  15. Vorp Opiescu Says:

    Regarding Varitek, Ortiz, and the events of Monday night ... a post from Baseball Think Factory:

    "I can see a solution to base runners running wild on Red Sox catchers. The Red Sox could get Kevin Youkilis a Taser to hide in his pocket. When the runner on first tries to steal 2nd base, he pulls it out and *crackle* ... stolen base prevented."

  16. DoubleDiamond Says:

    I can understand the RBI on a bases-loaded walk, since the batter presumably exercised good judgment in not swinging at the bad pitches. This is what Jamie Moyer did in Sunday night's game against Santana, no doubt.

    Getting an RBI on a bases loaded HBP is less logical, although maybe it's a consolation prize for depriving the batter of the chance to get an RBI had he not been hit. Then again, first base is only supposed to be awarded if the batter made an attempt to get out of the way of the pitch. The most famous bases-loaded situation in which a batter did not get award first base because the umpire decided he didn't attempt to get out of the way was probably the one involving Dick Dietz against Don Drysdale in 1968. It extended a hitless inning streak that Drysdale had going and which eventually developed into a record-setting one (since broken).

  17. Dave Says:

    Andy, I understand your point about Santana; I was just quibbling with your judgment that he's no longer an "ace." Just arguing semantics I suppose.

  18. Vidor Says:

    "re: bases-loaded walk---you're BATTING aren't you? You're AT-BAT aren't you? You're the BATTER aren't you? So why shouldn't get a run BATTED in?"

    Because you did not bat the ball.

  19. Andy Says:

    You're using an awfully narrow and specific definition of a word first employed in the game more than 120 years ago. He DID bat, he just got on base without putting the ball in play. Why can't the 'batted' in RBI refer to a player who came to bat instead of a player who touched the ball with the bat? It's not Runs Hit In or Runs Scoring While Ball is in Play.