Sunday Smorgasbord – games of Saturday, July 2
Posted by John Autin on July 3, 2011
[A Whitman's sampler of Saturday action, with neither leaves nor grass....]
-- White Sox 1, Cubs 0 ... for the first time in MLB history. The ChiSox are back at .500 for the first time since May 16, and their 4th win over the Cubs secured the season series.
- The Cubs have two 1-0 wins over their intracity rivals, one in 2010 -- a combined 1-hitter with a wild finish -- and one in the 1906 World Series.)
- Philip Humber (7 shutout IP, now 8-4, 2.69) has had a quality start in 11 of his last 12 games, and 12 out of 15 starts this year. Where is this coming from? Humber was the #3 overall pick in 2004, but he's 28 now and had showed little promise in his limited MLB trials (5.26 ERA in 51 IP). In his last 4 years in the minors, his best ERA was 4.27. He was extremely HR-prone in 4 years at AAA, but he's allowed just 7 long balls this year in 103.2 IP, despite a HR-friendly home park.
- Matt Garza became the first pitcher this year to lose a 9-IP CG while allowing just 1 run. He held that distinction for just a few hours....
-- Doug Fister took another tough loss, allowing 1 run while going the route at home against the Padres. His only walk turned into the game's only run. The Mariners (2 hits Saturday) have scored 2 runs or less in 13 of his 17 starts. He has not won since May 30, despite a 2.68 ERA in his last 6 starts (averaging almost 8 IP). He is among the AL leaders in Innings, BB/9 and HR/9, but his record is 4-9.
- Cory Luebke (6 IP, 2 hits, no walks, 7 Ks) pitched in relief for his first 29 games this year, but in 2 starts he has yet to allow a run, and has surrendered just 3 hits and 2 walks in 11 IP, with 13 Ks. Luebke, a late-1st-round pick in 2007, was 10-1, 2.68 as a starter in the high minors last year.
- Who's the best reliever in the majors right now? There's a dozen ways to argue about this, but my vote goes to Mike Adams. Since 2009, he leads all relievers (min. 100 IP) with a 1.34 ERA and 275 ERA+, 5.17 H/9, and 0.83 WHIP. (For balance: the relief 2009-11 WAR leader is Mariano Rivera -- no, really! -- and the WPA leader is Heath Bell.)
-- No lucky 7's for KC's Kyle Davies: He allowed 7 runs, took his 7th loss, and hit the showers with a 7.77 ERA. The Royals have lost 5 straight and 11 of 13 to become the first AL team with 50 losses.
- Mark Ellis, whose Rockies debut was a triple shy of the cycle, became the first Colorado hitter in over a year to collect 3 doubles in a game. He's 6 for 10 since the trade, with 5 RBI and a 1.300 SLG.
- Checking on the Royals' rookies: Mike Moustakas homered in his 2nd MLB game, but hasn't hit one in 16 games since. That HR was not just his lone extra-base hit so far, but also his only RBI; he's 1 for 13 with runners in scoring position. On the plus side, he's hitting .258 with a .352 OBP, and has 9 walks against 10 strikeouts in 62 PAs. There's no reason to get down on him after just 18 big-league games. After all, Willie Mays hit .258 in his first 18 games, with 2 HRs, 9 walks and 8 Ks.
- Eric Hosmer has also hit the doldrums. After banging 5 HRs in his first 22 games, he has no HRs and just 4 XBH in his last 28 games. He's hitting .182 in his last 20 games.
- Aaron Crow continued his brilliant rookie year with a scoreless 9th. Crow has a 1.36 ERA in 39.2 IP, and has stranded 16 of 19 inherited runners. Among pure relievers this year (no starts), Crow ranks 2nd with 2.1 WAR and 7th in Win Probability Added.
-- Nyjer Morgan, the offensive half of Milwaukee's CF platoon, lacked a single for the cycle, scored 3 and drove in 4 in the Brewers' comeback win at Minnesota. He doubled in the tying runs in the 9th and then scored the winner. Morgan is hitting .336 with a .901 OPS and 145 OPS+ in 46 games. Of his 31 starts, 30 have come against a RHP; he has just 20 PAs against southpaws.
- Morgan's was the 7th game this year with a HR, triple and double -- yet none of them hit for the cycle:
| Rk | Player | Date | Tm | Opp | Rslt | PA | AB | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | BB | IBB | SO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nyjer Morgan | 2011-07-02 | MIL | MIN | W 8-7 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 2 | Alex Gordon | 2011-06-21 | KCR | ARI | L 2-7 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 3 | Shane Victorino | 2011-06-18 | PHI | SEA | W 5-1 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| 4 | Matt Kemp | 2011-06-09 | LAD | COL | L 7-9 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| 5 | Kelly Johnson | 2011-05-30 | ARI | FLA | W 15-4 | 6 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| 6 | Jose Bautista | 2011-04-22 | TOR | TBR | W 6-4 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| 7 | Sam Fuld | 2011-04-11 | TBR | BOS | W 16-5 | 6 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
-- Cleveland survived an early exit by Fausto Carmona to beat Cincinnati for the 5th straight time, as 6 relievers held the Reds to 1 run in 7 IP. They have steadied the ship since falling out of 1st place on June 14th, going 9-7 and taking advantage of Detroit's slump to go back in front by 1.5 games.
- Jay Bruce's OPS peaked at .941 on June 3rd, but in his last 25 games he's hit .204 with 1 HR, 5 RBI and 30 strikeouts.
-- Jered Weaver (1 run in 8 IP against the Dodgers) is red-hot again. He's allowed 3 runs total in his last 4 starts and has a 1.31 ERA in his last 8 starts, going at least 7 IP each time. Saturday was the first time in 10 starts that the Angels scored more than 4 runs behind him. He leads the AL with a 1.92 ERA, a 192 ERA+, and 4.7 WAR.
-- Hanley Ramirez powered Florida with 2 HRs and 5 RBI. It was his first multi-HR game in 14 months, and his first 3-RBI game this year. In 10 games at the cleanup spot, Hanley has 12 RBI, 9 runs, and a 1.095 OPS.
- Tommy Hunter, who went 13-4 for Texas last year but began this year in the minors, made his season debut with 4.2 innings in relief of injured(?) Derek Holland.
-- Casey Kotchman went 2-4 with a go-ahead 3-run double in the Rays' 5-1 win over St. Louis. Kotchman's BA is .336 and has been .320 or higher since late May. Tampa is 36-22 in his starts, 10-15 otherwise.
- Johnny Damon singled in all 4 trips, breaking a tie with Ted Williams on the all-time hits list. Damon is 70th with 2,658 hits, and is 21 hits from passing another 6 HOFers. He needs 117 hits to crack the top 50 (assuming A-Rod doesn't stop his upward march).
- Kyle McClellan, who worked solely in relief the past 3 years, went 6-1, 3.11 in his first 10 starts this season, but he's 0-4, 7.00 in his last 5.
-- Barry Zito won consecutive starts for the first time since April 2010, and the Giants hammered Max Scherzer for 9 runs in 2+ IP.
- Pablo Sandoval has hit in 13 straight games.
- Don't let his 9-4 record fool you; Scherzer has been getting pounded for over a month now, with a 7.84 ERA in his last 8 starts (yet somehow a 3-3 record). Maybe it's time for another quick minor-league tune-up, like the one that seemed to make such a difference in his 2010 season? Scherzer had a 7.29 ERA through 8 starts in 2010, got sent down to AAA for 2 starts (utterly dominant), then came back to post a 2.46 ERA in his last 23 starts.
- Do I dare to believe in Brennan Boesch again? As a rookie last year, Boesch hit .342 with a .990 OPS in 65 games before the All-Star break, but absolutely cratered in the 2nd half (.163, .458). This year, Boesch got hot in June, and after a HR and a double yesterday, sports a .307/.858, and his 140 OPS+ gives the Tigers 5 qualifying hitters at or above that mark. They are the only team with more than 3 qualifying hitters at 130 OPS+ or better.
- The flip side is that Detroit's pitching has gone south. They have just 1 qualifying pitcher with an ERA+ of even 90; 26 teams have 2 or more. And as sublime as Justin Verlander has been, that's no recipe for getting to October.
July 3rd, 2011 at 1:12 pm
You didn't even mention that Fister's walk was of the 3 ball variety!!!
July 3rd, 2011 at 1:18 pm
By the way.. the play by play there lists there actually being 4 balls pitched. I don't know if that can be fixed or if a walk is just automatically 4 balls.
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/recap?gameId=310702112
July 3rd, 2011 at 4:43 pm
I always enjoy reading your write-ups.
I guess I'm not following the American League as closesly as I should have been. I thought I remembered Kansas City getting off to a surprisingly good start, so I was surprised to read just now that they're the first team to reach 50 losses. Maybe I have them confused with Cleveland, a city I was in 50 years ago today but have never been back to (except once on a direct but not non-stop plane trip in 1979). (With Neil Diamond now in the Rock & Roll Hall of Fame, I may decided to got there again.)
Wasn't there an interleague game yesterday in which a pitcher traded less than two years ago started in his former major league park and won a complete game but in which the most memorable play featured a reliever and the manager of the opposing team going ballistic and getting tossed?
You're slipping, though - You didn't find a place to use the phrase "run differential" when "run difference" would say it more succinctly.
July 3rd, 2011 at 4:56 pm
@3
Double, I'm glad you brought up that Blue Jays-Phillies game yesterday, although in an indirect way.
In might not have made any difference to the outcome, but pitch FX showed that Rauch got screwed by the plate umpire in the Ryan Howard ninth-inning at bat on not one, but two, two-strike pitches.
What incensed Jon Rauch and John Farrell was that the umpire had been giving Halladay that call all afternoon.
But you know all this already, Double.
JA, great factoids in the blog. Things may be quiet in here because of the long weekend and the release of the all-star rosters, not because of the quality of the post.
July 3rd, 2011 at 4:58 pm
@1-2, Thomas -- Thanks for the info on the walk to Maybin. It leads me to a bit of a confession:
I don't read any write-ups or absorb any other media about the games before doing my own, except when I'm watching a Mets game. I know it sometimes makes me miss crucial game facts, like the one you noted. But for me, the fun of doing a round-up is finding my own factoids and angles on the game based purely on the online box scores and play-by-play accounts from either ESPN (for same-day coverage) or B-R (day-after).
Now, the 3-ball walk is something that I would definitely mention if I knew about it. But if I happen to hear anything not directly involved in the game action -- e.g., "it's the first time since ___ that this happened" -- then I don't use it, because I want to come up with my own tidbits. I don't want anyone to think that I'm just anthologizing information from Elias or elsewhere.
But, yeah -- I wish I'd had the 3-pitch walk! 🙂
July 3rd, 2011 at 5:02 pm
@3, DoubleD -- How about "run gap"? Sounds like a phrase General Jack D. Ripper would use: "Mr. President, we cannot afford a run gap with the Russkis!"
But seriously, your note on "difference" and "differential" is a good one, and I'll try to keep it in mind.
July 3rd, 2011 at 5:13 pm
I was stunned, when I heard that Minnesota blew a 7-0 lead, yesterday. "You mean to say, that the Twins, actually had a 7-0 lead??"
what......a........season.
July 3rd, 2011 at 5:21 pm
@7
But, Nash, look at today ...... if they can just hold on.
July 3rd, 2011 at 5:23 pm
@3: In 2009, Kansas City had a 3 game lead, on May 7th, with an 18-11 record, and were still in first place (tied), through May 15th.
This year, not as good a start, but they were 10-5, at one point, and .500, as late as May 16th.
July 3rd, 2011 at 5:56 pm
Random thoughts on the 9th inning of today's Mets-Yanks game, in which Mariano blew a 1-run save after getting retiring the first 2 batters:
-- I was very surprised to see Rivera walk Jason Bay, the last 3 balls tailing low and away. Perhaps he was thinking of the 2-out, 2-run, game-tying HR that Bay hit off him back on April 24, 2009 in Fenway Park. Bay is 2 for 7 lifetime against Rivera, with the HR and a double.
-- After a bat-handle flare to RF put Mets on the corners with 2 out, Ronnie Paulino pinch-hit and quickly found himself in an 0-2 hole. And then he did what more batters should try to do against Mo with 2 strikes: when the classic cutter came in low and on the outer corner, Paulino drastically shortened his stroke, with almost no step, and went with the pitch, guiding a seeing-eye single to RF to score the tying run. You're not going to drive a ball with Paulino's wrists-and-arms swing, but in the circumstances and with the difficulty of ever driving a ball off Rivera with 2 strikes, it was the perfect approach.
-- The game went to extra innings because of the outstanding fundamental play and hustle of LF Brett Gardner, and if you've ever wondered whether his off-the-charts defensive rating in LF is justified, this play might convince you. With 2 out and the winning run at 2nd, Ruben Tejada hit a hard groundball to SS that went right between the legs of Eduardo Nunez. With 2 out, the runner scores on this play 9 times out of 10. But Gardner charged the ball anticipating the misplay -- perhaps he's seen enough of Nunez's erratic glove by now -- and picked up the ball in very shallow LF. And though he doesn't have a strong arm, he got rid of it quickly with an accurate, 1-hop throw to the plate, and Lucas Duda was dead on arrival. All told, it was a Gold Glove play by Gardner, and saved the game for the Yankees.
July 3rd, 2011 at 6:02 pm
Correction @10: It was Ramiro Pena at SS, not Nunez. And he just made his 2nd error with 2 out in the 10th to load the bases for Jason Bay.
July 3rd, 2011 at 6:05 pm
John
Hope you don't mind a suggestion for tomorrow's column. Can you discuss how the Oriole pitchers did offensively in their 9 games in NL parks.
There are all sorts of anomalies here, but most notably, as the Mets bat in the 10th inning; their pitchers account for 14 TB on the season; the same as the O's
July 3rd, 2011 at 6:14 pm
Spartan Bill -- You do know I bleed Maize & Blue, right? 🙂
But anyway, that's an excellent idea -- I took a look at the B-R numbers after seeing your post, then noticed Zach Britton's day at the plate today. Just amazing.
July 3rd, 2011 at 6:33 pm
Neil L -- Didn't you express dread of the Jo-Jo Reyes / (any of Philly's big 3) matchup?
You know that you can't predict baseball! 🙂
July 3rd, 2011 at 7:07 pm
@5 no problem man... these write ups are fantastic! Plus, unless you were those guys for mlb.com who are watching every game, I'd guess it would be pretty darn difficult to see everything! You pick up on more then most people just from the box scores!
July 3rd, 2011 at 7:08 pm
Gardner had the two biggest plays of today's Yanks-Mets game....at least until the Mets won it. Russell Martin deserves credit on the tag out of Duda. Gardner's throw wasn't that good, but it was good enough to enable Martin to receive it in time and range several feet to his left to make the tag.
I was also surprised by the Bay walk. I was doing something else at the time, but it seemed like Rivera had control of the PA, and then let it get away, with ball 4 not being that close. That was really his only mistake. Duda was jammed but managed to flare the ball over the infield. You noted Paulino's good strategical adjustment, but that certainly wasn't a bad pitch and just happened to find a hole. And then Pena whiffs on the next ground ball.
From a fan's standpoint, there's something to be said for a guy who makes the routine plays, like Jeter.
July 3rd, 2011 at 7:30 pm
[A Whitman's sampler of Saturday action, with neither leaves nor grass....]
Fine exercise of your First Amendment rights, John: the right to engage in free association.
July 3rd, 2011 at 7:38 pm
In all seriousness, as we approach the AS game to me the biggest surprise in baseball is the Rays. Before the season started I would have said no way this team reaches .500. Then Manny blows up, and Longoria goes down. They get off to a really bad start, and now they are 10 games over. There is a lot of talk about rating players here and new stats vs. old and all that, but whatever the Rays are doing they are doing it well!
July 3rd, 2011 at 9:36 pm
@14
Good memory, JA.
Yes I disdained the Jo Jo Reyes/Cliff Lee matchup five days ago.
I had given the Jays up for dead today, but they chipped away at Lee and then rocked him in the eighth. The Rogers Center was jumpin'.
They scored more runs off Lee than opponents did in the entire month of June.
I liked the fact Bautista hit a home run each off Halladay/Lee/Kendrick.
July 3rd, 2011 at 9:55 pm
@10 @16
Mustachioed and JA, sounds like the Mets-Yankees game was a nail-biter with a lot of small baseball nuances that you could only pick up with eyeballs on the action.
Reading your descriptions of the crucial plays makes me realize, again, the limitations of a box score or even a play by play summary.
How could something like Gardner's defensive anticipation ever be captured with a statistic, despite the outfield assist.
July 3rd, 2011 at 10:30 pm
John Autin Says:
July 3rd, 2011 at 6:14 pm
Spartan Bill -- You do know I bleed Maize & Blue, right? 🙂
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You can fix that with a Green & White tourniquet.
I do look forward to tomorrows blog though.
July 3rd, 2011 at 11:08 pm
@21 -- Well quipped, my tartan-togged friend, well quipped!
July 3rd, 2011 at 11:11 pm
@20: "...the limitations of a box score or even a play by play summary."
[sobbing into keyboard]
I suppose next you'll wax rhapsodic about the pastoral joys of actually playing baseball! Oh, where will it end?!?
July 3rd, 2011 at 11:20 pm
@18, Timmy P -- I'll vote for Kirk Gibson's D-backs as the top surprise, but the Rays are right up there, for sure. I don't know quite how they do it -- pitchers like Shields and Price help, of course, but in a larger sense I'd say it's a testament to a good organization; not only in figuring out which affordable players to bring in, but in creating a culture of success that helps get the best out of a guy like Kyle Farnsworth or Casey Kotchman.
Whatever it is, I'd love to hang around their club for a week to pick up the good vibes!
July 4th, 2011 at 12:00 am
Re: Jered Weaver red hot again
Neil L, have you picked out the hat yet? The one you were going to eat if Weaver didn't breakdown due to overwork. Remember?
July 4th, 2011 at 12:12 am
Didn't Homer Simpson once eat a nacho hat at a ballgame?
July 4th, 2011 at 1:12 am
@25
Doug, nice call-out! I don't recall promising to eat anything but crow.
Let me recant any suggestion that Weaver would tire. I do remember making the post.
Man, a guy can't get away with anything in here! 🙂
July 4th, 2011 at 1:51 am
@27.
No worries, Neil. Just having some fun.
I see a lot of Randy Johnson in Jered Weaver. Same kind of build, same kind of rubber arm.
July 4th, 2011 at 1:51 am
Neil, take your pick:
http://www.baseball-reference.com/pl/player_search.cgi?search=crow
July 4th, 2011 at 2:02 am
Re: "Damon is 70th with 2,658 hits, and is 21 hits from passing another 6 HOFers. He needs 117 hits to crack the top 50 (assuming A-Rod doesn't stop his upward march)."
If anyone else was slightly bemused by what John was getting at, I think it's that A-Rod currently ranks 50th in hits, 100 ahead of Damon. No. 49 is Andre Dawson, 16 hits further ahead. Since there are no active players between Damon and A-Rod, and Chipper Jones is the next active player after Damon (99 hits behind), then it's Dawson who Damon will undoubtedly pass to reach 50th spot. Unless A-Rod calls it a career at the All-Star break (or some other similarly unlikely occurrence).
July 4th, 2011 at 2:33 am
@24.
Right on about the Rays getting the most out of what they've got. And, especially true about Kotchman. Watching him flail away last year with the Mariners, it seems a marvel that he's hit above .320 for more than a month. Last year, he dropped below .230 on May 2, and never hit that level again the rest of the year.
Kotchman, though, was, at least, consistent. He went 3 for 3 exactly a year ago, on July 4th, 2010, to raise his average above .200 for the first time since May 21st. And, he kept it above .200 the rest of the way, peaking at .229 when he went 3 for 4 on Sep 10. It will be great if he can do the same this year, but 100 points higher.
July 4th, 2011 at 11:10 am
Doug @30 -- Sakes alive, man! Not only a public-service explanation of my obscure reference, but a proper use of bemused, which (coincidentally) ranks #70 on the all-time WORP list (words often reckoned poorly). 🙂