Notes from Saturday Games: Hanley’s Struggle, Duke’s Triumph
Posted by John Autin on May 29, 2011
A non-comprehensive look around Saturday's MLB games:
- Hanley Ramirez was caught stealing and grounded into a double play in Florida's win; it's the 4th time in his career that he's done both in the same game. His oWAR is 0 so far this year.
- Zach Attack: In his first game of the year, Zach Duke had his first scoreless start since 2009, blanking the Astros for 7 IP. Duke also hit his first career HR in almost 300 AB, a satisfying 3-run shot against Bud Norris after a 2-out intentional walk to the #8 hitter. Zach Kroenke finished up the blowout win for Arizona in his season debut. (Do you think that a MLB pitcher named Zach Kroenke must have to repeat his last name a lot?)
- David Pauley earned the win for Seattle with 2 scoreless IP, trimming his ERA to 0.84 (3 runs in 32.1 IP) and his WHIP to 0.71, the 4th best in MLB this year (min. 20 IP).
- Jonny Venters had his hitless IP streak snapped at 12 by Joey Votto, but Venters extended his scoreless streak to 14 IP.
- Albert Pujols grounded into a DP for the 16th time this year. Nearing the 1/3 mark of the season, Pujols is on pace for 49 GDP and less than 2 oWAR. His worst oWAR mark was 5.8 in 2007.
- Jaime Garcia went into his start in Colorado with a 1.93 ERA through 10 starts. He left the mound with a 3.28 ERA and his first loss of the year. Garcia allowed 12 runs (11 ER) in 3.1 IP, the most runs allowed by a starter in so few IP since 2008.
- For the Rockies, Juan Nicasio won his MLB debut, allowing 1 unearned run in 7 IP. Nicasio was called up from the AA Texas League, where he had a 2.22 ERA and 6.30 K/BB ratio in 9 starts; his K/BB ratio has been at least 5 in each of his last 3 minor-league seasons. Nicasio is the first Rockies pitcher since 2001 to debut with 7 IP and no ER. (Jason Jennings threw a CG shutout in his 2001 debut. The other Colorado pitcher to debut with a shutout was Mark Brownson (who?) in 1998; Brownson appeared in just 10 more MLB games and allowed at least 1 run each time, with a combined 8.54 ERA. His shutout victim? The Mets, of course.)
- Sean O'Sullivan became the first pitcher this year (and 11th since 2001) to allow 15 hits or more in a game. Since joining the Royals in 2010 in exchange for Alberto Callaspo, O'Sullivan has a 6.38 ERA and 63 ERA+ in 121.1 IP.
- Paul Maholm threw Pittsburgh's 2nd shutout of the season. The Pirates haven't had more than 3 shutouts in a year since 1993. Also, the Pirates' 10-run outburst raised Maholm's average run support this year to 2.20; they hadn't scored more than 4 runs in his previous 10 starts.
- Cleveland scored 4 runs in the 8th last night, extending a 3-2 lead to 7-2. We've seen so many late rallies by the Indians this year, they must rank near the top in "Late & Close" performance, right? Nope. Their .714 OPS in Late & Close situations ranks 6th in the AL. Boston is head & shoulders above the other AL teams with an .849 OPS.
- Jose Bautista reached safely 5 times in 6 trips, nudging his OBP back over .500. The only modern players with a .500 OBP in a qualifying season are Babe Ruth (5), Barry Bonds (4), Ted Williams (3), Mickey Mantle and Rogers Hornsby. In better news for Toronto, Bautista came up in the 1st in a non-pitch-around situation (2 on and 0 out) and slugged his 20th HR.
May 29th, 2011 at 6:21 pm
off topic: Not sure if searchable, but would be great to see who has the most 'zero hits' in a game when every other starter had at least one hit.
May 29th, 2011 at 7:28 pm
Wow, Albert Pujols is having a rough start, by his standards. You can't project his present GIDP rate for a whole season but nevertheless .....
His OPS is only sixth best on his team.
I remember Andy's thread back on the 1st or 2nd day of the season about Albert's bad game.
He's too young to have an age decline. Is his contract status playing mind games with him?
Johnny Venters has a long way to go to catch Joey "Oakland", although pitching the relief equivalent of a no-hitter is still impressive.
Put David Pauley in for Brandon League as the closer in Seattle. Although League has recovered nicely from his rough stretch.
May 29th, 2011 at 9:06 pm
Those GIDP numbers on Pujols are incredible, he will be hugging Jim Hendry and playing for the Cubs next year. His teammate Lance Berkman is having an amazing year. He got off to a great start, but in May he's come down to earth. But! he has been walked 22 times in May and it seems he' always on base. I love his attitude at the plate, taking what they give him. I love Berkman, what a weapon and LaRussa loves him. Berkman seems to have all the numbers that sabrmeters love, and the numbers us old-timers love too.
May 29th, 2011 at 10:10 pm
New stathead phrase for me - pardon me if I've asked about it before:
oWAR - What does it mean? I'm guessing that it's one for which a higher number is better than a lower number, based on the context it's used for Pujols.
Is Hanley Ramirez's oWAR of zero the rock bottom it can be, or can it also be hegative?
May 29th, 2011 at 11:24 pm
@4, DoubleDiamond -- "oWAR" is short for offensive WAR, and "WAR" stands for Wins Above Replacement.
I'm not the best person to explain WAR in detail, but basically it's an attempt to measure, in terms of team wins, the value of a player's performance over the expected performance of a hypothetical "replacement player" playing in his stead. A replacement player is, in broad terms, the type of player who is commonly available in a team's farm system or available in trade at a minimal cost. It's worth stating explicitly that replacement-level is well below the MLB average at a position.
Offensive WAR is, in effect, adjusted by position, because the expected offensive performance of a replacement-level shortstop is much lower than that of a first baseman or (in most seasons) a left fielder.
To put the oWAR numbers in context ... The 2011 oWAR leaders were Albert Pujols (NL) and Miguel Cabrera (AL), both at 7.4, which is within normal range for league leaders. The 3 highest oWAR seasons in the past 10 years were all by (surprise!) Barry Bonds -- 13.0 in 2001 (73 HR season), 12.1 in 2004 (the year with all the intentional walks and the season record 1.422 OPS), and 11.9 in 2002.
There are two different WAR measures that are commonly cited, which differ (I believe) in how they estimate the replacement level. Baseball-Reference uses one measure, while FanGraphs uses another. I'm not sure if there is a detailed explanation of B-R's method on this site. Below are links that I found to explanations of the different methods, B-R's being listed first; the third link is an essay on MVP-level WAR (or, if you dare, WAMVP). Someone else might be able to give you more information.
http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2011/2/28/2019517/using-trammell-and-reuschel-to-explain-war
http://www.fangraphs.com/library/index.php/misc/war/
http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2010/2/25/1325611/wins-above-mvp-level
May 29th, 2011 at 11:36 pm
@4, DoubleDiamond -- Sorry, I forgot to answer your question about Hanley's zero oWAR. Definitely not rock-bottom; all WAR numbers can go into the negative range. Conceptually, this means that the player performed worse than replacement-level.
Also, when "WAR" is cited for a position player, it is understood to combine both their offensive WAR (oWAR) and defensive WAR (dWAR). In general, the dWAR numbers have a smaller range than oWAR. However, dWAR extremes may go further into the negative (just my anecdotal impression here) because defensive value is considerably harder to measure; it's more common for terrible defensive player to get regular playing time because the record of his defensive performance doesn't show up on the video board or in the Sunday stats.
May 29th, 2011 at 11:41 pm
i may be wrong, but i thought Matt Garza allowed 16 hits in a game this year, all singles, which would top o'sullivan's 15 hits allowed in a game. (and garza only allowed 4 runs)
May 29th, 2011 at 11:47 pm
my bad, just looked it up garza had allowed 12 hits and given up 3 earned runs
May 30th, 2011 at 12:24 am
Update: Ricky Nolasco allowed 15 hits (and 8 runs) in 5 IP against the Dodgers Sunday. So now Nolasco and Sullivan are the co-leaders.
May 30th, 2011 at 12:26 am
dWAR goes negative more often because it is only being compared to average performance. So really about half the players will have negative dWAR. This is a slight confusion with breaking WAR up like that.
The way WAR is calculated is that every aspect of the player's performance is compared to average, and then a single adjustment is made for how much better an average player is than a replacement player. Technically that adjustment doesn't really belong on the offensive or defensive side. Some replacement players have decent bats but little defensive value (say, Shelley Duncan). Some have decent gloves but can't hit (Willie Bloomquist). Some might just be below average in all aspects, and the combination makes them replacement-level. If you choose to break WAR into oWAR and dWAR, it makes some sense to include the replacement component on the offensive side, since position players produce more value via offense than defense so it's usually on the hitting side where replacement players are lacking. But it's a somewhat arbitrary choice, and it means that the other side is being compared to average. It's really dWAA.
May 30th, 2011 at 1:06 am
@10, JT -- Thanks for that excellent clarification.
May 30th, 2011 at 5:33 am
JA: many thanks, for the WAR links. Thanks, also, JohnnyT, for the clarification on defensive WAR. I'm still trying to catch up with everybody:) Despite not having a ton of spare time, I do check this site everyday. Love it. Besides. I don't think that Facebook misses me! (They haven't sent a card, or called....)
May 30th, 2011 at 11:14 pm
Great travel article! About to add it to my RSS Reader! Thank you!