What to make of Mark Reynolds
Posted by Andy on September 23, 2009
What do you make of Mark Reynolds?
I'm not going to discuss his strikeouts because I don't think they're all that meaningful. Over 2008 and 2009, he's 36th in outs and 45th in plate appearances. No big deal.
What does worry me is that he's currently cracking the top 10 for worst OPS+ in a season with 43 HR. Just like how Ryan Howard worried me last year, Reynolds is putting up numbers that are less than they might seem at first. Reynolds is also near the top of the list for fewest RBI in a 43+ HR season, although he figures to fall down a bit. If he adds just 7 RBI this year he won't make the top 15. (Still, though, he's up there, and you can't compare his year to current #8 Barry Bonds, who had 232 walks.)
But, check out all the 3rd basemen since 1901 to have 40 HR and 20 SB in the same season:
Cnt Player Year HR SB Age Tm Lg G PA AB R H 2B 3B RBI BB IBB SO HBP SH SF GDP CS BA OBP SLG OPS Positions +----+-----------------+----+--+---+---+---+--+---+---+---+---+---+--+--+---+---+---+---+---+---+---+---+--+-----+-----+-----+-----+---------+ 1 Mark Reynolds 2009 43 24 25 ARI NL 144 616 536 92 143 28 1 99 74 3 203 4 0 2 8 9 .267 .359 .563 .922 *53 2 Alex Rodriguez 2007 54 24 31 NYY AL 158 708 583 143 183 31 0 156 95 11 120 21 0 9 15 4 .314 .422 .645 1.067 *5/D 3 Alex Rodriguez 2005 48 21 29 NYY AL 162 715 605 124 194 29 1 130 91 8 139 16 0 3 8 6 .321 .421 .610 1.031 *5/6D 4 Chipper Jones 1999 45 25 27 ATL NL 157 701 567 116 181 41 1 110 126 18 94 2 0 6 20 3 .319 .441 .633 1.074 *5/6
Apparently the guy has some baserunning skills and with a .359 OBP he's getting on base decently enough.
Would you take this guy on your team? Despite his shortcomings, I still think he's a very talented player, and I'd take him.
September 23rd, 2009 at 8:06 am
You're worried about Mark Reynolds because he has an OPS+ of "only" 132? same as the career OPS+ of Tony Gwynn? and Al Simmons? OK, no one will ever take his stats for Albert Pujols', but, yes, I'd take him, too.
September 23rd, 2009 at 8:08 am
The issue is that many guys that have produced seasons with so many HR but "such low" OPS+ don't usually go on to produce that many HR again, and their OPS+ usually don't get even that high. Compare this season for Reynolds to last season, where his RBI were similar but his OPS+ was under 100.
September 23rd, 2009 at 9:53 am
There are outs, and there are outs. Reynolds has struck out over 400 times in two years. Thats over 400 times nothing has happened on the bases (less the rare passed ball). If you put the ball in play, at least occasionally runners move up, runners score, errors are made, etc.
He reminds me of Dave Kingman, but a little better.
September 23rd, 2009 at 9:54 am
And if you put the ball in play, sometimes you hit into a double play. He has very low GIDP totals, for what it's worth. (I'm guessing his manager would gladly take 10 or 20 more GIDP and 100 fewer strikeouts...)
September 23rd, 2009 at 11:07 am
He also has a pretty high BABIP, which leads me to believe that when there are runners in scoring position he's probably able to get the bat on the ball. His strikeouts probably come as much from taking a lot of pitches (which also gives him a pretty good walk rate) as from a huge hole in his swing. Jeff Francouer he is not. Reminds me a lot more of a young Adam Dunn at the plate, but better baserunning and defensive skills. I'd take him.
And I wouldn't make too much of the RBI stats until I see a % number. Remember he plays for the D-Backs. Something tells me if he were on the Phils or Cards he'd have a few more RBIs.
September 23rd, 2009 at 11:09 am
Ya, there definitely seems to be a correlation between strikeouts and OPS...9 of the top 13 on the list struck out 150+ times as compared to 17 out of the other 165 seasons. While it's certainly possible to have a great year and strike out 155 times--like Mark McGwire did in his 70-HR season--it certainly seems to lower your chances.
September 23rd, 2009 at 3:21 pm
Can't complain with power, speed and the ability to get on base. But I hate those strikeouts, because they make nothing happen. A double play ball frequently doesn't turn into a DP, especially if the batter has speed. If Soriano didn't strike out so many times in the playoffs, he'd still be a Yankee. He was a rally-killer.
Right now, I'd say Reynolds is worth it. And he is a young player, and plate discipline is an "old player" skill. If, when he gets to the age of the other 3B guys, he still has the power, has cut down the Ks just a little and added a few walks, there would be no reason to worry. But if he's still at 20 HR and 200 Ks in his 27-31 seasons, I'd be wary.
September 23rd, 2009 at 3:32 pm
Good point, Eorns. I guess the difference between guys on my list and others with "better" numbers are that a bunch of strikeouts are converted into batted balls, some of which are outs and some of which are singles. The singles result in a few more RBI and a slightly higher OPS.