Hardy, Reynolds filling gaps for Baltimore
Posted by John Autin on June 24, 2011
In 2010, Baltimore's regulars on the left side of the infield were Cesar Izturis at SS and Miguel Tejada at 3B. Both were brutally unproductive, with negative Wins Above Replacement (WAR) values of -0.5 and -0.8, respectively. The O's ranked last in the AL in OPS+ from the SS position, and 11th from 3B. It was probably the worst left side combo in the majors.
What a difference a year makes. The new starters, J.J. Hardy and Mark Reynolds, have been 2 of the team's 4 most productive regulars, and have raised the club's OPS+ rankings to 2nd (SS) and 3rd (3B) so far this year.
Hardy's bat has been red-hot in June. In 19 games this month, he's hit .380 with 7 HRs, 16 runs, 15 RBI, and a 1.147 OPS. His slash line for the season is up to .304/.366/.532, with a 147 OPS+.
The O's are 23-22 in games started by Hardy, 10-17 otherwise. He has mostly flown under the radar this year, partly because he's missed those 27 games, partly because he didn't play very well the last couple of years, and partly because ... well ... it's Baltimore. But the O's took a flyer on him and his $5.8 million salary in a December trade with Minnesota, and he is paying dividends.
In 45 games, Hardy has accumulated 2.0 Wins Above Replacement (WAR). His average of .044 WAR/G ranks 13th among all players with at least 20 games played, and is on a par with A-Rod, Dustin Pedroia, Adam Lind and (gasp!) Jose Reyes.
In both 2007 and '08, Hardy hit 20+ HRs and 30+ doubles for Milwaukee. His best year was 2008, when he produced 4.7 WAR (3rd among all MLB shortstops), including 1.6 defensive WAR. But he had an awful year at the plate in 2009, and that winter the Brewers dealt him north to Minnesota for Carlos Gomez. He improved offensively in 2010, but not back to his peak form, and his defense slipped. The cost-conscious Twins decided to go with Alexi Casilla at SS, and moved Hardy to the Orioles for a couple of pitchers.
So far this year, Hardy's defense rates as just above average by the dWAR method, but he has made only 1 error in 231 chances and his range factor is well above average. And lately he's excelling in a new offensive role: With Brian Roberts on the DL and the team in desperate need of leadoff production, Hardy was moved to the top of the order 2 weeks ago, and in 13 games there he's hit .356 (21 for 59) with 11 runs, 10 RBI, 5 HRs, 6 doubles and a 1.112 OPS.
Another Oriole on a roll this month is Mark Reynolds. In 19 June games, Reynolds has slashed .345/.480/.724, with 6 HRs and 15 walks. His season rank among MLB third basemen:
- 1st with 13 HRs (tied with A-Rod)
- 5th with 37 Runs
- 6th with 37 RBI
- 4th with a 124 OPS+ (out of 22 3Bs with 200+ PAs)
And he's amassed those solid Run/RBI numbers while batting 7th or 8th in 59 of his 71 games. It might surprise you to hear that Reynolds is batting a respectable .265 with men on base. And in a "thank heaven for small favors" sort of way, Reynolds has actually cut his strikeout rate significantly this year; he's on pace for a mere 166 Ks, after averaging 213 over the past 3 seasons.
There's no way to gloss over his poor defense; he has 16 errors, and his -1.1 defensive WAR eats a big chunk out of his 1.8 offensive WAR. And Reynolds might not wind up "earning" the combined $12.5 million he'll make for this year and next, on a WAR/$ basis.
Still, Reynolds and Hardy have filled a gaping wound for Baltimore, for now, allowing them to focus on other areas that need more improvement. And that's a big part of how a mid-market franchise starts to pull itself out of a deep hole.
June 24th, 2011 at 2:33 am
1 error for the shortstop, and 16 errors for the 3rd baseman. Presumably, (and, for Reynolds, hopefully) both will regress closer to mean performance levels.
If Reynolds doesn't cut down on the errors, then I guess the Orioles end up with two free swinging, right-hand hitting, DHs. Unless they want to roll the dice and try Vlad in the outfield. Then again, thinking back to the Rangers and last year's post-season experiment, maybe not.
June 24th, 2011 at 3:12 am
No post about Riggleman resigning??? I definately score that as an, "E-BR"... and error on the Baseball Reference Blog.
June 24th, 2011 at 6:22 am
ack, thought that it was a shrewd move by the Twins, to pick up Hardy last year, but he wasn't quite there......"yet", apparently.
Sometimes, it's just hard to guess these things. 🙂
June 24th, 2011 at 8:17 am
Doug - Mercifully, the Orioles seem to have learned from Ron Washington's mistakes. Guerrero was used solely as a pinch hitter in the just-concluded swing through Washington and Pittsburgh. And as sad as it is, I don't think his bat will play in the OF any more: 58 of his 75 hits are singles (.398 SLG, 97 OPS+). I didn't like the idea of the Orioles signing him, and I liked it even less when they agreed to his $8 MM salary demands. Yes, Hardy and Reynolds have been a godsend, but it's stuff like the Guerrero signing that put the O's in this deep hole in the first place.
An amazing stat: Hardy has 9 HR in 45 games this season. During the previous 3 seasons (2008-2010), all Oriole shortstops combined for 7 HR!
June 24th, 2011 at 9:49 am
I was very convinced that Mark Reynolds' days as a major leaguer were numbered.
I know high SO guys can be very productive, but there was just some part of purist in me that couldn't get past the latest wave of THREE TRUE OUTCOME GUYS, like Howard, Dunn, Pena, Cust and Reynolds.
I remember a poster defending Reynolds a way back, comparing him to a young Mike Schmidt.
I do remember there even being mild flack that Mike Schmidt SO to often back in the day, but I guess a few MVPs and a WS will change people.
I know there is hard swinging guys who will produce and K at high rates, but just something bothers me about Reynolds always going for broke.
I admit having not seen him play often, but I imagine he doesn't choke up with 2 strikes or goes the other way or shoots for a hole on the right side or hit and runs.
But I guess his resurrection is good for baseball and I'm rooting for him a bit now. He is no doubt an extreme player, but it would be nice to see a small change in the AL Beast and have an Oriole star (since Ripken) that will get bigger cheers at Camden than Jeter
June 24th, 2011 at 10:26 am
@2, Thomas Court -- I did post about Riggleman's resignation yesterday afternoon, right after I heard of it. But on second thought, I took it down; the blogs didn't seem the right place for a basic breaking-news item, and I didn't have any particular "take" on the story.
B-R's front page yesterday did have a link to a Riggleman story, under "MLB Trade Rumors" (on the right side of the page, below the ads). It seems to have been supplanted now by the news of their naming McLaren as interim manager.
June 24th, 2011 at 10:37 am
@6
I see your point, about these blogs not really being used for breaking-news.
But at the same time, I fully expected to see a plethora of posts analyzing managers in the past quitting or being replaced during a successful stretch. And a whole slew of opinions from the regular contributors on here that seem to know their stuff, even when they disagree. I feel dirty reading comments on a Yahoo Sports or ESPN version, because so many of the comments are idiots. Here I can count on seeing a much more informed dialogue and not 2000+ mostly unreadable comments.
June 24th, 2011 at 10:59 am
@7, Thomas -- I've got a post up now on Riggleman. I hope it generates the kind of discussion you're looking for.
June 24th, 2011 at 1:18 pm
Duke @5,
You must have graduated from my situational hitting 101 class! 🙂
Many of my beliefs exactly about adjusting your approach at the plate as part of being productive.
I haven't seen a lot of Reynolds' plate appearances so I don't know either if he still tries to pull the ball with two strikes or with a runner on the move, but it would be easy to look at his numbers and assume a "fences or nothing" mentality.
It used to kill me to watch Vernon Wells try to jerk the low outside pitch over the left field fence (intent presumed based on swing) when a sacrifice fly or hit up the middle would have gotten the job done.
June 24th, 2011 at 5:20 pm
I don't think you could have made this case with Reynolds just a week ago when he was at .205/.326/.429. He just had a good offensive week. And his defense -- which was supposed to comfort those of us who freaked about the Ks -- has been atrocious. I don't think there's a way to do this quickly, but it seems that a ridiculous percentage of his errors have resulted in UER, and at the worst possible juncture of games. I was not in favor of this signing, and I'm still not there.
June 24th, 2011 at 11:46 pm
@10, JDV -- The season numbers you cited for Reynolds as of a week ago (through June 17) are correct. But when you look at where he was at the start of June, it's clearly been more than just one good offensive week that's gotten his numbers up. From June 1 through June 17, Reynolds had 5 HRs and 11 RBI in 14 games, with a 1.059 OPS. Major game impact in that period included a grand slam in a 5-3 win on June 4, a 2-run HR in a 3-2 win on June 8, and a go-ahead 2-run HR in the 6th inning on June 11, his 2nd HR of that game (which they lost in 11 innings after blowing the lead in the 9th).
So while there's no denying that he didn't hit much through May, he's hit quite well for over the whole month of June, not just the last week.
I'm not trying to convince you to like Reynolds or the signing. I'm just saying that he's been way more productive than Miguel Tejada was last year. Not only did Tejada have a mere .309 OBP and 7 HRs in 97 games, he also made 15 errors in 93 games at 3B.