Now the Tigers-Yankees series is all messed up
Posted by Andy on October 1, 2011
The Tigers took a big hit last night when rain suspended Game 1. Now Justin Verlander won't pitch again until Game 3 and will make just one appearance in the division series even if it goes 5 games. The same is true for CC Sabathia, but given Verlander's excellent season, this figures to hurt the Tigers more than the Yankees.
Now the Game 2 starters will resume Game 1 today, with Ivan Nova and Doug Fister taking over for the aces. These same two guys would match up in a Game 5 if necessary.
So a couple of weird things about Game 1 when it resumes today--it's a lot like starting a fresh game in the sense that the score will be tied (though at 1 instead of 0) and the home team (the Yankees) will bat first since the Tigers already made out in the top of the second, so the game will resume from the bottom of the second. Another weird thing is the obvious one, that two starting pitchers are both coming in relief early in a close game.
October 1st, 2011 at 11:57 am
What's the record for longest postseason relief appearance? I wonder if that could be broken today.
October 1st, 2011 at 12:23 pm
Not only is it like playing a shorter game, its also now a game where the Yankees get to bat one more time than the Tigers. Also the Tigers now have their left-handed lineup against a right-handed pitcher. Strange.
October 1st, 2011 at 12:29 pm
Is there a reason Verlander and Sabathia couldn't go back out there? They both threw fewer than 30 pitches (not including warm-ups and such) and renowned for their durability. It's the fricking playoffs!
October 1st, 2011 at 12:30 pm
Advantage for the Yanx also that they only need 4-5 innings out of Nova.
October 1st, 2011 at 12:31 pm
@1:
Without looking it up, I would guess Moe Drabowsky's 6.2 inning stint in the 1966 WS would be tough to beat.
October 1st, 2011 at 12:33 pm
Starting pitchers typically throw on their regular turn day, and then have a throwing day in between starts. They typically don't ever throw on consecutive days and would have a difficult time getting their arms loose and warm for today. But Sabathia wants to start tomorrow, on what might be his typical throwing day. It's possible but I can't imagine him throwing more than 70-80 pitches if he does.
Incidentally, here are the longest relief appearances in a post-season game:
Generated 10/1/2011.
So the record is very unlikely to be broken today, but we have a shot at least at the longest since 1977.
October 1st, 2011 at 12:33 pm
...or, they get 7 strong out of him and rest the pen since they'll be playing another three in a row............. or maybe it gets rained out again today and Joe Torre calls for a Sunday doubleheader.
October 1st, 2011 at 12:33 pm
Advantage for the Tigers if the Yanks are forced to pitch AJ Burnett in game 4.
October 1st, 2011 at 12:34 pm
Tue dat, #8. It's funny that the Yankees might regret now not putting Colon on the post-season roster.
October 1st, 2011 at 12:35 pm
Andy-
I understand what is "typical". But we are talking about two atypical pitchers whose teams are now in atypical situations. While neither would be at his most effective today and may be limited, would you rather have them go today and again in Game 5 at full rest or only in Game 3 still on short rest?
October 1st, 2011 at 12:36 pm
I guess I should tone it down a bit... I'm not necessary criticizing either team's plan. The pitchers know themselves best and the teams know the pitchers best. I would just like to see the idea at least entertained.
October 1st, 2011 at 12:48 pm
I think this is an advantage and diadvantage for both teams. First it relies on a couple of things (And I haven't heard the latest update so if something has gotten updated let me know)
Tonight's forecast has rain in NY and possibly worse than last night.
From what it seems Max Scharzer (forgive me for spelling his name wrong but you know who I mean), will pitch Game 2 against Freddy Garcia. Scharzer has pitched terrible on the road this year and Yankee Stadium is no fun place for a road pitcher to pitch.
Now on the other hand, JV moves his Game 1 start from Away to home, most likely against CC Sabathia. And Game 4 regardless of if there's a change in the first 3 games seems like it's Porcello vs. Burnett. Which originally had Porcello/CC which is pretty much a no contest. When I saw Porcello's high ERA, I figured he had a decent ERA at home and a terrible ERA on the road. After looking at his home ERA of 5.64, something tells me Comerica Park isn't for him. So maybe the Yankees have a Chance with AJ in that game, considering AJ had a decent September.
The 2 main points are
1- If Game 1 finishes up tonight
And 2- If it doesn't, they said the schedule will be Sunday through Thursday with no off days. And if Game 1 is concluded on Sunday, does Joe Girardi go to CC on Sunday or does he still wait for him in Game 3.
As far as it stands now, let me assume CC is Game 3
Game 1- Nova/Fister
Game 2- Garcia/Scharzer
Game 3- CC/Verlander
Game 4- Porcello/Burnett
Game 5- ?/?
The other question is, does Girardi and Leyland start the 2 young kids on 3 days rest in a Game 5 if it goes there, or do they just stick a Long Relief pitcher in their and let it rely on the bullpen? Othewrise we might be seeing Phil Hughes vs. Brad Penny in Game 5.
I think what's best for the Yankees is to go CC-Nova-Garcia-Burnett-CC
Although Game 3 is more lopsided than the original Game 4 of Porcello/CC
Now if tonight's game gets played, looks like there won't be as much trouble.
October 1st, 2011 at 12:52 pm
Andy, I think Colon has run out of gas (that sounds funny lol) and to be quite frankly, I do think Burnett would be a better option to start a game than Colon. Maybe his last 2 starts against Boston gave a little boost although he did not fare too well against Minnesota and Baltimore, but Baltimore was a hot team at the end of the year.
October 1st, 2011 at 1:00 pm
You know... I really hate suspended games in the post-season. Hated it in '08, hate it now. On the other hand though... this messed up series may give the Rays an advantage... an extra day of rest between series. It may also give them the Yanks during the ALCS... vs Det, they wen 1-6, but vs the Yanks they went 9-9. I know it's small sample size, but it looks like the Tigers have Tampa's number, so if this series suddenly adds benefits to the Bronx Bombers... Tampa should be happy.
Of course, I'm assuming the Rays keep kicking the Rangers butt. I think they will.
October 1st, 2011 at 1:29 pm
Why aren't they playing right now? It's beautiful in NYC. And there is no way they get the game in tonight with the forecast what it is now.
October 1st, 2011 at 1:42 pm
I just found out that Sabathia is starting Game 3 regardless if there is a game tonight or not.
October 1st, 2011 at 1:46 pm
Personally, this might put us closer to what I think the playoffs ought to be. It is always bothered me that a completely different game plan, strategy, and roster configuration is used in the post-season as compared to the regular season. Teams need* 5 starters during the regular season, but only 3 or 4 in the post-season. How does that make sense? That'd be like saying teams wouldn't need their FG kickers in the NFL playoffs. At a minimum, playoff series should play 4 consecutive games to start the series. Force teams to use at least 4 starters. If you want to give a day off after game 4 so players can rest and be at their sharpest, I'm not too bothered by that, even though teams often play 7+ games in a row and part of a well-built team is one that can remain sharp in the long haul.
* Yes, I know teams aren't REQUIRED to use a 5 man rotation. But that is the practice nowadays. Regardless, however many pitchers you use in the regular season is going to be more than the current playoff series require. A 3 man regulation season rotation would become a 2 man rotation in the playoffs.
October 1st, 2011 at 2:09 pm
I strongly agree with that, BSK.
October 1st, 2011 at 2:18 pm
@1, @5
Jessie Barnes pitched 8.1 innings in relief in the 1921 WS. Altogether 13 pitchers have gone 7 or more innings in relief.
October 1st, 2011 at 2:40 pm
I'd say advantage Tigers if the series gets to Fister-Nova in Game 5. sure, Nova had a fine season but he is a rookie, i.e. nerves and accumulation of innings over a long season is tough on a young pitcher. I wonder if the cold rainy weather is tough on old man A-Rod's creaky joints?
October 1st, 2011 at 2:51 pm
I suggested to my friend before the series started something that he thought was crazy. I suggested throwing verlander in game 2. the only pitcher the yankees have that comes close to matching up with him is CC. so the only game the yankees could beat verlander in is if cc started. it works both ways but if the tigers threw some scherzer game 1 and pulled it off somehow they would have a huge advantage in the series. and even if they lost they could throw verlander in game 2 against anyone besides cc and worst case scenario get a split. which is the goal anyway. thoughts? did that make sense at all? its hard to convey what i am tryin to say
October 1st, 2011 at 2:53 pm
#20 Russell, I agree, however do you think either one would start on 3 days rest if Saturday's game get postponed to Sunday? Game 1 would be Sunday, Game 5 would be Thursday.
Leyland never starts Verlander on 3 days rest, but he may have no chioce unless he puts faith in Brad Penny or a long reliever + his other relievers. Same for Girardi unless he puts in Phil Hughes
I don't think either one would start Game 5 if they are only on 3 days rest
Tehn again, they could get limited action in Game 1 since it has started already.
October 1st, 2011 at 2:57 pm
Nilbog, don't know if it's the best of ideas. It's a very short series, I think you gotta go with your 1-2 punch always at the start (assuming they'd be avaialble)
October 1st, 2011 at 4:20 pm
Weather forecast being what it is, if they actually try to play the game, both teams should hold back their 'starters'. Yankees should, at least. They have a much deeper bullpen.
If the game is actually played through, they need two innings out of Ayala, get through the middle with Wade and Logan (or Hughes), and then the big guns.
Everybody is rested, and the risk of wearing out the bullpen is belayed by the advantage of potentially not having to get to that 4th starter.
October 1st, 2011 at 4:41 pm
@RSK, Andy ... Bud needs the off days to get more playoff games on TV. I like the idea, but no way it happens.
October 1st, 2011 at 5:05 pm
@15
BSK, it's all about money. Televised games during the afternoon don't touch televised games at night in terms of ratings and ad dollars.
October 1st, 2011 at 5:33 pm
I'm not enamored with the suspended game when the game is stopped that early on. I like the policy instituted of not having playoff games be rain shortened, but when the game is stopped this early on they should just start from the beginning.
I'm not sure where I would make the cutoff - maybe official game like they do in the regular season, but tonight's matchup feels like the 7ish inning game they were seeking to avoid by not allowing rain shortened games to go final in the first place.
I realize this would be frustrating for a team if it had taken an early lead, but I don't feel like a couple of innings are worth carrying over. I could see a small danger that a home team might be slow to get the tarp on if they were behind around the 4th and thought perhaps the game might be restarted if the field were to get soaked.
October 1st, 2011 at 6:14 pm
Messed up is good ... part of the beauty of baseball is that it makes the participants (the players, the coaches/managers, the umpires, the fans) have to deal with the unexpected. And the unexpected leads to drama.
October 1st, 2011 at 6:17 pm
Socratic and ML-
Oh, I'm well aware of WHY it is the way it is. But a boy can dream, can't he?
The problem is (and this is not unique to baseball) is that the more arbitrary the results of the playoffs are, the more likely it is that the sport loses fans. People are less likely to invest in watching 162 regular season games plus up to 3 playoff series if it seems like the outcome of the latter had nothing to do with the former. Would you watch a 3 hour game of any kind if the end result was determined by a dice roll? I get that there is an inherent luck/randomness to any sporting event and that is natural and good. But you reach a point where you make the regular season meaningless if what it takes to be successful there is not relevant to what it takes to be successful in the playoffs.
It is one of the reasons I struggle with soccer. While I enjoy watching the game in general, sometimes I feel like I wasted my day when the sports' unwillingness to modernize their officiating and slim scoring margins means games are often decided by something other than the players.
October 1st, 2011 at 7:21 pm
Sean and I had a conversation about this a few years ago and concluded that the solution is to make the series longer with no days off. Make the World Series best of 11, scheduled over two weekends so that there just as many primetime weekend games, but teams need to use 4 or 5 starters.
October 1st, 2011 at 9:04 pm
Baseball, especially Bud Selig, the Umpires, the Scorers and their die-hard supporters, are still stuck in the 19th century mind, with dirtyball and all that.
It staunchly refuses to move into 21st century, and so it is slowly being sidelined by the younger generation and is increasingly becoming the sport of aging sabermetricians.
I mean, it has to start anew, from the beginning. How hard is that? It is unfair to the visting team, since like what someone said the home team gets to have another chance to attack.
Some, especially the umpire-lovers, may say 'it's life', but it is not life. It's a simulation, and a simulaton can be reset and started from zero.
I really hope Baseball enters the 21st century, and do away with all the archaic relics from the past.
October 1st, 2011 at 9:16 pm
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October 1st, 2011 at 9:22 pm
Andy, that sounds like a good idea. But not enough to eliminate the great chance of the best team not winning it all, & avoiding random & irrelevant factors. To minimize that possibility, & fit it into the current schedule, would we not need to go back to ONE playoff round, & apply the same 11 games rules you delineate above?
I would want this to maximize the chance of the best team "true" champion being crowned, plus the 162 game regular season having more weight & import as a selective force. But we know that commercially it would produce less revenue & interest. While money is King.
October 1st, 2011 at 11:55 pm
I don't know if there will be a recap thread, so I'll post this here. I don't remember seeing Doug Fister pitch before. I don't think his line ended up too pretty, but I was very impressed. Fast pace, quick, compact windup, good arm action, nice movement on all his pitches. He looked really good for most of his stint.
I did think he appeared to lose something coming out of the stretch. I checked his splits and while he did have problems with runners on base last season, he was excellent this season. So I'll assume tonight was either a fluke or I was seeing something that wasn't there.
October 2nd, 2011 at 3:48 am
Seems strange that you would say Verlander is only making one apperance in the series.
He'll make 2 (one he's already made), and I expect he'd be available in the pen if there was a game 5, especially if it went to extra innings.
October 2nd, 2011 at 3:58 am
@27
I strongly disagree. Whatever innings were played must count in a playoff game. It would be a joke otherwise. A team takes the lead in the early innings, and play begins fresh the next day just because it rains? What a joke that would be.
October 2nd, 2011 at 7:59 am
JT I had the same thought about Fister. I thought he had very impressive control and movement both. I think Cano must have been thrilled when Leyland lifted him, especially when he brought in the righty.
I am tempted to add how hard Fister punched it inside, but I fear Charles would quit the blog again.
October 2nd, 2011 at 8:48 pm
Re: starters pitching on consecutive days.
Orel Hershiser went 7 innings in game 3 of the 1988 NLCS, and then came back the next day to record the final out in the Dodgers' 12-inning game 4 win. He threw only 3 pitches, but still amazing that he could get loose, especially as it was a raw, blustery day at Shea.