Messed up NL Central
Posted by Andy on July 19, 2011
A few random notes on the messed up NL Central:
- The Pirates are in first. That's not all that messed up because they've played reasonably well in a weak division. It is shocking, though, to see a first place team averaging 3.95 runs scored per game, not to mention among the bottom 5 of NL teams in doubles, homers, and OPS.
- The team with the best run-scoring differential, the Reds at +27, are in FOURTH place. Yes, fourth.
- Not to worry, though, as 4th place is only 4 games out.
- The Brewers have insane home/road splits: 33-14 (.702) at home and 18-32 (.360) on the road.
- The Astros have a player, Hunter Pence, whose batting average (.318) is nearly has high as their team winning percentage (.323) - thanks to reader Eddy E. for that tidbit
- The last time the Cardinals won as many as 4 games in a row was June 3-7 when they were 37-25. Since then they have gone 13-20. Good thing for them, too, that the division is so weak.
It seems nearly certain at this point that the NL wildcard will be either the Phillies or the Braves. In the Central, the division winner will likely be the only team to make the playoffs.
July 19th, 2011 at 12:50 pm
How are these two statements possible:
The Brewers have insane home/road splits: 33-14 (.660) at home and 18-32 (.450) on the road.
and
Too bad they have a road-heavy schedule remaining.
According to the numbers you provided, they've actually already played 4 more games on the road. So they are actually due for more home games.
July 19th, 2011 at 12:59 pm
Because I did bad math there. Their home and road winning percentages are actually much more stilted than I posted initially. I have fixed it now. Thanks.
July 19th, 2011 at 12:59 pm
Did you realize that the West-leading Giants have fewer runs per game (3.67<3.95), fewer HR per game (0.649<0.660), and a lower OPS (.671<.678)?
July 19th, 2011 at 1:05 pm
Unless you live within 50 miles or Milwaukee, St Louis, or Cincinnati -- How can you not root for Pittsburgh? Personally I'd love to see them slip into the playoffs. It'd be even better if they won the World Series out of the blue, after all these years of losing. That would be such a great baseball story. It would be kinda Hollywood.
July 19th, 2011 at 1:22 pm
"It seems nearly certain at this point that the NL wildcard will be either the Phillies or the Braves."
-- Woe betide he who belittles Sgt. Gibson's D-backs! 🙂
July 19th, 2011 at 1:28 pm
Keith - a quick look at the pitching stats on Fangraphs and you'll see the that the Giants have been pitching as well as their numbers suggest (3.15 ERA/3.16 FIP) while the Pirates have been pitching well over their heads (3.42/3.96), largely because of low strikeout totals with a surprisingly low BABIP. Their luck will turn in the second half, their D good enough to continue to make up these differences.
July 19th, 2011 at 1:36 pm
Maybe the pitching will falter and maybe it won't, but that wasn't what was analyzed in this post.
"It is shocking, though, to see a first place team averaging..."
What does the pitching have to do with the offensive statistics?
July 19th, 2011 at 1:49 pm
The Pirates have played the easiest schedule in all of MLB, a .485 W% against. They have an upcoming stretch of 10 games vs StL, Atl and Philly so we'll see how they are sitting after that.
July 19th, 2011 at 1:54 pm
Let's go Pirates!
July 19th, 2011 at 2:12 pm
The last time the Cardinals won as many as 4 games in a row was June 3-7 when they were 37-25
The Reds scoff at this. They have not even won 2 in-a-row since a 3 game win streak that ended on June 15. Yes, it has been more than a month since the Reds have won 2 straight games.
July 19th, 2011 at 2:13 pm
I have trouble finding opponents on base and slugging average for the pitching staff on this site. I believe I heard recently that Pittsburgh had been out slugged and out on based by their opponents.
July 19th, 2011 at 2:22 pm
http://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/NL/2011-batting-pitching.shtml
PIT pitching allowing this line: .255/.319/.382 and 3.8 R/G
PIT offense is hitting: .247/.314/.364 and 3.95 R/G
So yes, their opponents are hitting for higher averages, but somehow scoring fewer runs.
July 19th, 2011 at 2:24 pm
Weird. The Pirates' offense has an average number of stolen bases, a slightly below-average success rate, a well below average "extra base taken" percentage...
July 19th, 2011 at 2:37 pm
Regarding 11,12,13: This is the old argument about clutch hitting vs. lucky distribution.
July 19th, 2011 at 2:45 pm
I agree with the majority about hoping that the Pirates strike a blow for all the small-market, little-guy franchises in baseball by qualifying for post-season this year.
That being said, the NL Central is a weak division. The Pirates would be tied for 3rd in the AL East, 2nd in the AL Central, tied for 2nd in the AL West and in 3rd place in both other NL Divisions. The Pirates dominance of Houston has been well-chronicled in other blogs.
In evaluating the strength of divisions within a season, am I correct in adding up the teams' SRS and using the total as a basis for comparison?
If so, AL East 2.9, NL East 1.3, AL West 0.9, AL Central -1.3, NL West -1.4, and NL Central bringing up the rear with -2.3.
I'm not quite sure how to interpret the SRS numbers. Should they all add up zero across both leagues? (allowing for rounded decimals)
July 19th, 2011 at 2:56 pm
I hope the Pirates don't pull a "2010 Padres", I really do.
July 19th, 2011 at 2:58 pm
Charlie Morton, 2011:
Against MLB minus the Reds:
5-5 79ip, 40 er, 4.55 era
Against the Reds
3-0 23ip, 1 er, 0.39 era
July 19th, 2011 at 3:47 pm
I'm not quite sure how to interpret the SRS numbers. Should they all add up zero across both leagues? (allowing for rounded decimals)
They should add up to zero for all MLB teams (not clear if that's what you meant). I think the AL is slightly higher than the NL because of interleague play.
July 19th, 2011 at 4:50 pm
Keith - I was just fleshing out the rest of the argument, you stated the offensive #'s, which paint one side of the picture, I covered the pitching side to show the difference between the Pirates and Giants. Also, what do the Giants have to do with an NL Central post?
July 19th, 2011 at 5:42 pm
While the NL Central is only average, it's worth noting that division has produced a world champion more recently than the AL Central and West.
Although it's entirely possible the Bucs will fade as we move into August, the fact remains they won four out of five interleague matchups this season, including wins over Boston and Detroit.
July 19th, 2011 at 6:59 pm
It's not so hard to understand why the Pirates are leading the division if you look at the pitching stats for the division. They.re allowing 3.8 runs/game, next best is Cincinnati at 4.39. That will cover for a lot of weak bats.
July 19th, 2011 at 7:26 pm
2007 Rockies and 2011 Pirates....Clint Hurdle is an ace at managing the Little ($) Bullpens That Can...batting coach 2010 AL Champ Rangers also.
July 20th, 2011 at 12:27 am
"The Astros have a player, Hunter Pence, whose batting average (.318) is nearly has high as their team winning percentage (.323)."
It's not so hard to find (regular) players with BA higher than their team's winning percentage. Start at the (since 1901) bottom, the 1916 Athletics, at .235; 6 of their regulars had a higher batting average, and that was during the deadball era. The 1935 Braves at .248, 6 of their regulars did better, as did a "sub" who got over 400 at-bats. The 1962 Mets at .250, three of their regulars beat that (four if you count Richie Ashburn, 473 PA). Let's go for something more recent; the 2003 Tigers, .265, three regulars beat that, including Dmitri Young at .297. So it goes.
July 20th, 2011 at 6:56 am
#23, yes it was apparent to both Eddy E and me that it's not hard to find a guy with a higher batting average than his team, especially when looking at the all-time bad teams such as the 1962 Mets and 2003 Tigers (in fact in his original email to me, Eddy called out those same 2 teams specifically.) But the Astros are just regular-bad, not all-time bad, so it's a little bit more uncommon.
July 20th, 2011 at 8:45 am
#24, if you want something really uncommon, check out the 1924 Cardinals. They played .422 ball, their second baseman hit .424 (Hornsby, of course).
July 20th, 2011 at 8:55 am
Good one, Gerry.
July 20th, 2011 at 10:06 am
#19, I don't know what "argument" you are referencing. The post clearly claims it is "shocking" that anyone can lead a division with such a poor offense. I don't find it shocking because the NL West is being led by a team with an arguably weaker offense than that of the Pirates.
How can something be "shocking" when 2 of 3 division leaders are comparably weak on offense?
July 20th, 2011 at 10:07 am
FWIW, I agree with Keith on this, in the sense that Pittsburgh's "achievement" of leading with such low run-scoring is not quite as special as I thought since SF is doing it too.
July 20th, 2011 at 4:11 pm
@20
Las Vegas Wildcards, are the Central divisions not always the weakest in MLB, despite the number of World Series winners?