Recapping AL pennant-race games of Friday 9/16/11
Posted by John Autin on September 17, 2011
[For the Detroit clincher, see here and here.]
-- In a crackling Friday night game that seemed a "must-win" for both sides -- and was played that way -- Boston's staff induced a year's-best 15 Ks, and hung onto a 1-run lead over the last 5 innings of a 4-3 win over the Rays. They ended a run of 6 straight losses to Tampa, and restored a 4-game bulge in the wild-card race that should have earned them at least one night's restful slumber.
BoSox hurlers had little trouble with most of the Rays' lineup, aided by some dubious strike calls that provoked Joe Maddon's ejection in the 6th. But they couldn't do a thing with Desmond Jennings and Evan Longoria, who reached base in their first 8 trips. Longo's 28th HR in the 1st (reviewed, but upheld) and RBI single in the 3rd both plated Jennings, giving Longo 10 RBI in his last 6 games against Boston, despite drawing 9 walks in those contests.
Fitting, then, that after the Rays stranded men in scoring position from the 4th through the 7th (going 0-7 with RISP), both Jennings and Longoria should come up in the 9th against the rejuvenated Jonathan Papelbon, enjoying his most dominant year since the 2007 title run.
The 9th-inning drama almost fizzled. Pinch-hitter Dan Johnson, who had a mega-clutch HR and a walk in his only 2 prior meetings with Papelbon, fanned on 3 pitches, and the rookie Jennings followed suit, swinging at all 4 tosses in his first face-off with the closer and missing 3 times. But B.J. Upton, 0-4 with 3 Ks to that point in the game, flouted his career numbers against Pap by singling to right on the first pitch, and that produced the matchup that all baseball fans (and the Fates) would relish: Papelbon vs. Longoria.
Longo stepped in with just 1 hit in 10 prior tries against Pap. He fouled off the first 3 pitches, then took a ball as Upton stole 2nd -- Tampa's 7th swipe in as many tries this game. (Base thieves are 26-1 against Papelbon the past 3 years.) But no avail: Longoria swung through a chest-high fastball to end the game, making Tampa's 10th straight out with a man in scoring position.
- No HOF call for his sock, I presume, but Josh Beckett was enough recovered from his Sept. 5 ankle sprain to post Boston's first Quality Start in their last 9 games. He wasn't nearly as dominant as in his 2 prior starts against Tampa -- 17 scoreless IP in those games, with 2 hits and no walks -- but he got them to the 7th with a lead, which hasn't happened often this month.
- Redemption Song: Mike Aviles bunted into a DP with 2 aboard in the 2nd, but his solo HR with 2 gone in the 4th put the Sox ahead to stay.
- The Rays' 7 steals (3 by Johnny Damon) matched the most in MLB since April of last year, when Texas ran wild in Fenway in another 1-run loss. Only 1 of Tampa's thieves wound up scoring; the others were all stranded, mostly by nos. 6-9 in the order, who went 0-15. Matthew Joyce and John Jaso went 0-8 with 6 Ks, and 0-4 with RISP.
- Despite 400 career SB before tonight, this was just Damon's 3rd game with 3 steals, and his first multi-SB game in more than a year. One more successful swipe would give him an even 80% success rate for his career.
- Longoria had owned this game until the 9th. Besides his batting exploits, he turned 2 sweet DPs, one going around the horn on the Aviles bunt, the other of the diving/unassisted variety to rob Dustin Pedroia of an RBI double. There certainly could be a team component to Longo's DP numbers, but can there really be doubt that Longoria is the best in the game in that respect? Over the past 4 years, Adrian Beltre and Ryan Zimmerman, two of the acknowledged best third basemen, have averaged 32 and 31 DPs per 162 games, respectively; Longoria has averaged 44.
- Terry Francona went to Daniel Bard in the 8th, despite his recent blowups (charged with 9 runs in his last 3 games).
- Jon Lester takes the hill Saturday in his own quest for redemption. Tampa sends Jeff Niemann, who had a 10-K CG win his last time out in Boston, and blanked them on 2 hits with 10 Ks in 8 IP in their previous encounter.
-- How many playoff hopes can the Orioles dampen? First they slowed Tampa's roll by taking 2 of 3 to start the week, then they hammered Dan Haren and the Halos Friday night, 8-3, keeping them 3.5 back despite the Rangers' loss in Seattle. Have I erred in projecting a Red Sox cruise through their 7 remaining games with Baltimore? It won't matter much unless the Rays can take the last 2 in Fenway.
- What's the record for the highest offsetting plus/minus WAR? Mark Reynolds began the night at +2.4 oWAR and -2.4 dWAR -- but then he hit his 33rd HR while avoiding his 30th boot.
-- Texas suffered their 6th road shutout, held to 4 singles and no walks by the 6' 7" control artist Blake Beavan (8 scoreless) and Brandon League (whiffed the side). The Rangers got just 2 men as far as 2nd base. C.J. Wilson allowed 3 unearned runs in the 3rd after a rare error by Ian Kinsler.
- Texas seems like a different club on the road, where they're now 37-36 (vs. 49-29 at home). And I've often mentioned their home/road batting splits: 6.1 Runs and 3.9 XBH at home, but 4.3 Runs and 2.8 extra-base hits in road games. But I should have looked deeper. Their pitchers have thrived in road games just as much as their hitters have struggled, allowing just 3.5 R/G away vs. 5.0 at home. And most tellingly, their expected road record is about 44-29; their run differential suggests a .600 W% (by the basic Pythagorean formula) -- the same as their expected home W%.
- With 13 walks in 85 IP, Beavan's 1.38 BB/9 ranks 5th-best among the 180 pitchers with at least 70 IP this year, and is right in line with his career minor-league rate. On the down side, he's had very few strikeouts and is HR-prone; he has not benefited from his home park as you might expect, allowing 9 HRs in 53 IP and a 4.08 ERA.
- Eight of the Rangers' last 11 games are with Seattle (5) and Oakland (3). The Angels have 2 more in Baltimore, then 4 in Toronto and 3 with the A's, before hosting the season-ending Texas tilt. They'll need to gain a little ground to make that matter.
September 17th, 2011 at 4:56 pm
Pretty sure you mean Joe Maddon, and not John Maddon, who would be some sort of 1000-year-old-football-baseball-coach-manager-hybrid.
If I had a play index subscription, I'd search the WAR thing for you. It should be pretty easy. Search for seasons with WAR=0, and then search by highest dWAR (or oWAR).
September 17th, 2011 at 5:11 pm
Wait a minute.
Mark Reynolds is not a good defender?
Wow.
Just assumed otherwise.
162 game avg for his career - 35 HR, 217 K.
His clutch stats are all pretty much 'meh', though he rakes when the game is out of hand +>4 runs: .988 ops.
Can someone explain how he continues to be an everyday player?
Are 35 homers really worth accepting 200k and bad D?
September 17th, 2011 at 5:19 pm
Reynolds has amazingly cut down on his strikeouts this season. There's a chance he doesn't pass 200. Drew Stubbs has more than him. But I agree. Reynolds is awful in the field and mediocre at the plate. His positional value and power are all he has going for him. He's a decent hitter for a third baseman. In the past he hasn't been this bad, though. So who knows what he brings to the table in 2012 besides his 200 K.
September 17th, 2011 at 6:12 pm
@2
Oh please, Reynolds is a threat to hit a home run anytime he's at the plate. He has an OPS+ of 114 this year which is amazing considering he's only hitting .218. Anybody with those numbers is going to get a spot on the roster.
Also, have you seen his similarity scores... Most similar by age... Mike Schmidt. Not bad
September 17th, 2011 at 6:26 pm
@3
"Reynolds has amazingly cut down on his strikeouts this season. There's a chance he doesn't pass 200."
Pretty much says it all, doesn't it?
September 17th, 2011 at 6:35 pm
"... aided by some dubious strike calls that provoked John Maddon's ejection in the 6th."
I caught just a few innings of this game, and just in that time saw several head-scratcher calls. Really bad game by the ump.
Two calls in particular should have been inning-ending strikeouts of Red Sox batters, but instead the ABs were prolonged, ultimately leading to two Red Sox runs.
For the Rays, Upton got rung up on a pitch well off the plate and the ump was instantly in his face when Upton voiced his displeasure. Joyce later struck out after a high-and-away pitch that should have been ball 4 was called strike 2, prolonging his AB. The Red Sox announcers were already talking about the next hitter coming up, before, quite mystified, they realized Joyce was still batting because of the strike call.
I only marvel that Maddon lasted as long as the 6th before he blew his stack.
September 17th, 2011 at 6:49 pm
Unfortunately Maddon got himself ejected before Damon was picked off so he wasn't able to argue that call.
September 17th, 2011 at 7:05 pm
Maybe John will talk about this in tonight's recap. For those who didn't see it, the Blue Jays recorded an unassisted double-play today against the Yanks. Unusual thing was that it was recorded by their center-fielder.
Not a play you see everyday. And, possibly won't ever see again.
http://mlb.mlb.com/video/play.jsp?content_id=19309887
September 17th, 2011 at 7:06 pm
@1 -- Thanks for the Maddon correction. I'm just glad I didn't call his counterpart "Tito." (Though I guess some do call him that. Never mind. I'll stick to writing about Joe Torrez and Casey Stanky.)
September 17th, 2011 at 7:20 pm
@8, Doug -- Nice find ... but I have to admit, I was hoping for one of those old-time plays where the CF is playing real shallow and snags a line-drive behind 2nd base, then catches a runner who left 2nd or one coming from 1st.
And I haven't checked to see how they scored it, but by rule, the out Cano made by passing Teixeira should be credited as a putout to the nearest fielder -- thus, not a DP for Rasmus. (Sorry!)
Rule 10.09(c)(4): When a runner is called out for passing another runner, the official scorer shall credit the putout to the fielder nearest the point of passing.
http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/downloads/y2011/Official_Baseball_Rules.pdf
September 17th, 2011 at 7:47 pm
Damon stole all those bases off his former teamates Vtek and Beckett. Looks like he knew they couldnt stop any running game and informed his teammates.
September 17th, 2011 at 9:11 pm
@10.
Well, the rule does seem pretty unequivocal, doesn't it?
I got the unassisted double play call from the ESPN game log. Checked again, and it still says that. And the MLB.com video is (or was) titled "Rasmus turns two". However, looking at the MLB.com game log, it now shows the double-play, correctly, as Rasmus-Lawrie.
One thing I was wondering was, supposing the play went just as it did except Cano did not pass Tex. If Tex had tagged and scored before Cano was doubled off second, would the run count? I'm guessing it wouldn't, but I'm ashamed to say I'm not certain of it.
September 17th, 2011 at 10:54 pm
@11, T.O.Jimbo -- Boston's inability to stop the running game isn't exactly a secret, right? They're only a little better than last year, when they allowed over 2 SB per game with a 20% CS rate. This year, over 1.8 successful SB per game, with a 24% CS rate.
But as we saw Friday, the running often has little impact. In the 34 games where they've allowed at least 2 SB, Boston is 19-15.
September 18th, 2011 at 2:39 am
@12, Doug -- In your hypothetical, the run would count.
September 18th, 2011 at 3:10 am
@14, John.
Thanks for the info on the play I described where the lead runner tags and the trailing runner doesn't.
The reason I was thinking the run might not count if the doubled-up trailing runner is the 3rd out, is that the double-up play is a kind of force play (i.e. runner is compelled to return to his bag; defense is not required to tag the runner, only the bag).
I'm guessing that play is pretty rare. Usually, both runners are running in the same direction. 🙂
September 18th, 2011 at 3:23 am
@The Original Jimbo:
I'm not one to usually get into nitpicking about who was here first, but I've been posting on this site since its old format when it required usernames =D. I think that makes ME the original Jimbo, but have it your way
September 18th, 2011 at 11:38 am
@15 Suppose the lead runner doesn't tag. When he crosses home the ump there will signal safe, and the run will count unless an appeal play is made to 3rd for the 4th out.
September 18th, 2011 at 11:44 am
@15, Doug -- As I learned from a previous rules discussion, the play that puts out a runner who is off base when a ball is caught on the fly is actually considered an appeal play. I had always of an appeal only in the "dead-ball" context -- i.e., after the play is stopped, the pitcher steps on the rubber, then steps off and throws to the disputed base. But actually, it's an appeal whether or not play stopped. That's why the run counts.
September 18th, 2011 at 11:59 am
@17, Kds -- Good to bring up the fascinating "fourth out."
In your example, I assume you were saying that the runner from 2nd base is put out on appeal for the 3rd out, and then the appeal is made to 3rd for the 4th out. If not, please point me right.
BTW, there's a pretty good piece on the fourth out here -- at least, it sounds authoritative:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fourth_out
September 18th, 2011 at 5:48 pm
@19 JA, I meant the runner on 1st or 2nd was the 3rd out, and they need to make the appeal and get the 4th out to prevent the run from counting. It looks like the rules anticipate these situations and say that they will only count three outs so if a fourth is needed it will go in the score book as the 3rd, and the original 3rd will be ignored.
September 19th, 2011 at 12:20 pm
@13/ John Autin: " @11, T.O.Jimbo -- Boston's inability to stop the running game isn't exactly a secret, right? They're only a little better than last year, when they allowed over 2 SB per game with a 20% CS rate..."
Actually, John A., Varitek and Salty this year are doing considerably better throwing out base stealers than Varitek and Victor Martinez were at the _start_ of last year. I don't have the numbers, but at the start of last year they were giving up SB at an historic rate; even guys who weren't considered basestealers were trying and succeeding against the Red Sox.
They made some adjustments, and the opponents SB% rate went to down to "pretty bad" instead of "atrocious".
September 19th, 2011 at 4:17 pm
Biblical requirements very well: 1. It is located at the eastern end of the Trans-Sinai Highway (Exod. 4:20, 27). 2. It is located near Midian.
September 20th, 2011 at 12:14 am
http://mlb.mlb.com/video/play.jsp?content_id=19309887
As hard as they are to direct-link (and well done on solving that problem), the MLB videos are usually very useful. But this is a terrible replay. You only see get a clue as to what happened at the very end of the video, and then it cuts off before you can watch it again and better understand what went wrong.