Recapping games of Tuesday 8/23
Posted by John Autin on August 24, 2011
-- Ian Kennedy and Clayton Kershaw each won his 16th and remained tied for the NL lead, one ahead of Roy Halladay. Kennedy (16-4, 3.09) threw 7 shutout innings as Arizona snapped their 6-game skid with a 2-0 win in Washington.
- Sean Burroughs handled the D-backs' scoring with a 2-run HR in the 7th, his 1st big-league HR since 2005 and just the 12th of his career in almost 1,800 PAs. His dad hit 12 HRs in 29 games from July 29 to August 27, 1977.
- AZ will lead by 2 games if the Giants don't rally late against the Padres.
- As if the Snakes don't have enough offensive trouble, Justin Upton left the game in the 5th after being hit on the arm by a pitch.
-- Kershaw left after 6 scoreless IP, cracking 200 Ks again in a laugher in St. Louis. The Cards trailed 3-0 before the 1st out: Justin Sellers singled, James Loney walked on 4 pitches, and Matt Kemp slugged a 3-run HR, his career-high 29th roundtripper. LA added 4 in the 2nd, and the Cards never showed a pulse. They've lost 7 of 10, all to losing teams, falling from 4 to 10 games behind.
- Skip Schumaker made his professional pitching debut in the 9th, notching 2 Ks but allowing a 2-run HR to Aaron Miles.
-- The Brewers' 10-game lead is almost surely the largest in franchise history. I won't do all the grunt work to be certain, but their 1-1/2 division titleists and 5 other 90-win teams never led by more than 6-1/2.
- The division winners of '82 and '81 maxed out at 6.5 and 2 games ahead, respectively. The Crew won 95 games in '79 and 93 in '78, but their biggest lead was 1 game each year, in April. They won 92 in '92, but never led. They were 5 games up in May '87, en route to 91 wins. And they won 90 in '08 with max lead of 1 game in April. Their next-best win total is 87.
- Ryan Braun had 2 SB in the Brewers' 11-4 win, giving him 28 steals along with 25 HRs. The only 30-30 season in Milwaukee was by Tommy Harper in 1970, the club's first year in that burgh.
- Prince Fielder became the first to 100 RBI.
-- With Jose Valverde getting a planned day off, Phil Coke delivered a 2-inning save in Detroit's 2-1 win, stretching their division lead to 6 games. Alex Avila keyed a 7th-inning rally off David Price, and Coke got out of jams in both his innings, each time whiffing the first 2 men before a double and an IBB. He escaped the 8th with a strikeout; in the 9th, Coke's wild pitch moved the winning run to 2nd with 2 out, and Ben Zobrist worked him for 10 pitches, but Coke's 51st pitch of the game got Zobrist to ground out for Detroit's 5th straight win.
- It hasn't been a good year overall for Coke, but he's thrown 10 straight goose eggs, with 16 Ks and 2 walks, while stranding 4 of 5 inherited runners.
- The 51 pitches Coke threw is the 2nd most in a save this year.
- Brad Penny (6.1 IP, 8 hits, 1 run, 2 Ks) averaged 6.3 SO/9 in his career through last year, and never less than 5.66 in a season of 100+ IP. But his 3.57 SO/9 this year would be the lowest of any qualifying pitcher in the last 3 seasons.
- Ben Zobrist hit his 42nd double, tops in the majors. There have been 14 seasons of 50+ doubles by a second baseman in MLB history. The first 6 came from 1910-36, the last 8 from 1998-2009, with each grouping being achieved by 4 different players.
-- The Angels will be within 3.5 games of Texas if they can late break a late tie with Chicago and claim their 5th straight win. Texas led by 7 less than a week ago after taking 3 straight from the Angels, but have since dropped 4 of 6.
-- Shin-Soo Choo, whose 3-run HR won the opener of a doubleheader, also homered in the nightcap, along with Kosuke Fukudome. Does anyone know of 2 Asian-born players who homered for the same team in the same game before?
- Choo had 2 extra-base hits in each game, but no singles. They were the first 2-XBH games for Choo this year.
- Seattle's Trayvon Robinson, acquired in the Erik Bedard trade, went 6 for 8 with 3 doubles in the doubleheader.
-- Craig Kimbrel became the 2nd pitcher in Braves history with a 40-save season; John Smoltz saved 40+ in 2002-04.
- Jason Heyward hit his first career grand slam in his 28th chance.
- Chipper Jones (3-4) is 21 for 50 in August.
- Aramis Ramirez went 5 for 5 and lifted his BA to .311.
- Casey Coleman has a 7.59 ERA 1 quality start in 10 tries.
-- Oakland's Brandon Allen hit 2 HRs in his first game ever in Yankee Stadium. The Yankees rallied from a 6-0 hole with 5 in the last 2 innings and had the bases loaded in the 9th, but Nick Swisher's long drive was caught on the CF warning track to end the game.
-- Cincinnati's Yonder Alonso had 4 RBI on 3 separate hits, with a HR and a go-ahead 2-run double with 2 out in the 9th. He's 13 for 29 with 2 HRs, 5 walks and just 3 strikeouts.
-- Bruce Chen matched a 10-year-old career high with 9 Ks, and the Royals banged out 16 hits in a 6-4 win.
-- In the first 2 innings, the Mets had 7 men come to bat with a runner in scoring position. One hit into a fielder's choice at the plate, as Angel "No Basic Instinct" Pagan meekly submitted to the tag while standing up. Another walked. The other 5 took called 3rd strikes from Vance Worley, including 3 straight in the 2nd inning with men on 2nd and 3rd in a scoreless game.
- 3 innings later, the Phils led 9-zip. What more do you need to know?
- Oh, alright: John Mayberry, Jr. homered again, and the Phillies have won 12 straight Worley starts.
August 24th, 2011 at 12:53 am
I knew, and have known, that Clayton Kershaw is a hell of a pitcher. Still, I was a little surprised when looking at his B-R page. This is his third straight qualifying season with an ERA under 3.00, and he's not 24 until next Spring Training. Roy Halladay is the only other pitcher under 3.00 the past 3 seasons. Only 4 pitchers with at least 400 IP since 2009 have lower ERAs (Wainwright, Halladay, Josh Johnson, Felix Hernandez).
***
I never understood the plan to try Phil Coke as a starter. Acknowledging that he may not have shown off his full repertoire while relieving for the Yankees, his stuff was not that impressive and neither were his results. Anyway, he actually wasn't horrible as a SP for Detroit, but eyeballing it his results look a bit better than his underlying numbers.
***
Didn't the Mets have another guy get tagged out at home without sliding some time in the past couple weeks?
August 24th, 2011 at 12:55 am
The Phillies winning Worley's last 12 starts are the first time a team has won 12 straight starts under a rookie since Mike Witt in 1986 for the Texas Rangers.
August 24th, 2011 at 12:56 am
JOHN MAYBERRY JUNIOR HIT A...oh, never mind. you covered that 🙂
August 24th, 2011 at 1:00 am
Kershaw is tied for 2nd with Clayton Richard(!) for 2nd in pickoffs over the past 3 seasons. First is Buehrle.
I didn't even know what team Richard was on. I remember him being with the White Sox. He's been a serviceable SP for San Diego the past couple seasons. Now that I write that, I guess I remember he was there. Part of the Jake Peavy trade.
August 24th, 2011 at 1:01 am
Leviathan/2 means Bobby Witt, I assume.
August 24th, 2011 at 1:05 am
@John Autin: I just read your comment about Mayberry's 6 foot 6 crouchy stance from a previous thread. He reminds me of Carney Lansford, but a little less jiggly. And Carney wasn't as tall, but does clock in at 6 ft 2.
August 24th, 2011 at 1:17 am
Twisto is right, I meant Bobby. My fault.
August 24th, 2011 at 1:25 am
AZ will lead by 2 games if the Giants don't rally late against the Padres.
John, if the Padres hadn't just scored two go-ahead runs in the top of the ninth, I would have asked you to check on the accreditation of that . . . place you're getting your Jinxology degree from. I don't think you're a Padres fan, yet your comment gave aid and comfort to the Giants.
It's not over yet, of course. Still, there's no need for you to respond to this post till all the West Coast games are in the books. (-;þ
August 24th, 2011 at 1:32 am
Ok, strategy test for all you prospective managers:
Bottom of the 9th
You are down by two.
You have 1st and 3rd, nobody out.
The fastest man in baseball is on 1st.
At the plate is a guy with over 3,000 hits,
whose nickname is Captain Clutch,
who is 3-3 with a BB on the evening,
and who is prolific at hitting ground balls.
How do you get that trail runner into scoring position?
Do you:
A. Steal 2nd
B. Run and Hit
C. Hit and Run
D. Give up an out (of which you have 3 remaining) and call for a bunt?
If you answered "D", congratulations, you are now ready to manage a major league baseball team. And lose by one run correctly.
August 24th, 2011 at 1:44 am
E. Call for a 3-run homer
/Earl Weaver
August 24th, 2011 at 1:44 am
@9
Wow, they bunted him to 2nd in that situation?
Horrible.
August 24th, 2011 at 2:01 am
@9
You described the situation incorrectly. It was not 1st and 3rd. According to the play-by-play on mlb.com, it was 1st and 2nd. Down by 2, getting those runners over to 2nd and 3rd and avoiding a potential DP seems alright even if the math data doesn't supprt it.
Obviously, if it was 1st and 3rd would've meant only advancing the runner to 2nd, in which case I was baffled by the play you described.
August 24th, 2011 at 2:27 am
Don't look now, but Matt Kemp has an outside shot at the Triple Crown. He's in the top 5 in all three categories, nothing insurmountable.
August 24th, 2011 at 2:48 am
@12, If the math doesn't support it, then how it alright?
I do think some people get overly upset when bunts are used, and I think they are used way too much, but there are times it makes sense. The game tonight didn't. The math will say the Yankees had a chance to score 1.4 runs with runners on first and second and no one out. That dropped slightly to 1.3 with runners on second and third with one out. Not anything to bust a gut over. Yet those stats are based on the aggregate data from all teams in similar situations this year. That's where it falls apart. The Yankees offense is not average; indeed it's the strongest in the game. Jeter has been hot for the past two months, including three-for-three with a walk tonight. The A's pitcher was extremely wild. The Yankees gifted the A's an out when the A's only needed to get three more. The Yankees lost the game by a fraction. Girardi calling for Jeter to bunt may have been the difference. Sure, it may have avoided a double play, but Jeter has been pretty good in that area this year, only hitting into nine all season, with 1/3 of those coming back in April.
The best offense in the game should have swung away.
August 24th, 2011 at 3:10 am
Patrick's Ladies X-Size Lingerie and Cigar Bar
August 24th, 2011 at 3:28 am
@14
From 1.4 expected runs to 1.3 expected runs, with a reduction mainly on the chances of scoring 3 or more runs, and probably not much reduction if any on the chances of scoring exactly 2 runs.
It seems the Yankees played to try and tie the game, and their chances of tying the game with runners on 2nd and 3rd with 1 out probably isn't much different than 1st and 2nd with 0 outs. I think the idea of playing for the tie is the problem, and with Granderson and Texeira coming up who aren't singles hitters anyways, a good % of their hits will score a runner from any base.
With Jeter being 3-3 and on fire all month, these small details add up and yes, the play becomes pretty silly.
August 24th, 2011 at 4:22 am
So Clayton Kershaw has the inside track at winning the NL Cy Young (particularly with the risk of vote splitting among the Parade of Aces in Philly) and Matt Kemp *could* win the NL Triple Crown with a big September (MVP seems unlikely at this point, with Milwaukee running away with the NL Central and Prince Fielder having a huge year). It's terribly sad to see two such awesome diamonds stuck in the pile of grifter s**t that is Frank McCourt's Dodger organization. Here's hoping that Bud Selig gets the opening soon to forcibly eject that pile of (technically) human excrement from MLB once and for all.
August 24th, 2011 at 9:14 am
@12,
Considering it was the bottom of the 9th inning and the Yankees faced a 2 run deficit, why would the lead runner being on 2nd or 3rd affect your evaluation of the decision? Advancing the non-tying runner is clearly of limited to no value* save for avoiding the DP, so the bunt would need to stand on the merits of whether moving the runner from 1st to 2nd was worth the assumed likelihood of giving up an out. You are quite correct @16 that you can't look at the change in run expectancy because 0 and 1 are the same outcome for the Yankees in that situation - you need to look at the run expectancy tables that detail the likelihood of scoring 2 or more runs see how those percentages change.
*Hence why SF that don't advance the tying or go ahead run in 9th really should just be considered outs - even more so than they should normally just be considered outs.
August 24th, 2011 at 9:51 am
I have hard time seeing Prince as NL MVP when Braun is the more valuable player on his own team.
August 24th, 2011 at 10:02 am
After Jeter's 3rd hit last night, YES showed the graphic about his climb up the list of Hit leaders (currently tied with Carew). I noticed on YES's list they had Cap Anson at 3081.
I knew he had a lot more than that, so I checked this site and it says 3435. Then I assumed YES is not counting Cap's National Association hits (423), but that brings him all the way down to 3012.
Does anyone have any theories. I am pretty sure YES uses Elias for all of their stats, but I refuse to believe there could be that much disparity of National League Hits between Elias and BR.
August 24th, 2011 at 10:02 am
@9
Voomo, I understand your frustration. However, keep the Yankees' bottom of the ninth in perspective.
Your team is tied for first place and they were in a position to win in their last at bat.
Try this scenario on for size. Your team is out of it this year but your management and local media are telling you the team is a year or two away from contending. Many of your fellow fans are drinking the Kool-Aid.
Your number two starter takes the mound, at home, against the second worst road team in the league, having only 19 wins.
And, in Burnett-like fashion, your number two starter, with outstanding "stuff" but bad "location" according to his manager post-game, melts down and gets hammered for 11 hits in 4.2 innings. Your team is down 6-0 and they are swinging like a rusty gate at 74 mph junk balls all night.
Voomo, I'd trade my frustration and team's current position for yours in a heartbeat. I know fans want their team to win every game but ..... the Yankees are in good shape. 🙂
August 24th, 2011 at 11:02 am
Re: Kershaw -- A few weeks ago, I got into a mild scrap with a big Kershaw fan on another thread, which prompted me to take a closer look at a guy I had sort of pigeonholed for poor control, based on his first 3 seasons.
I found that the other guy was right: Kershaw turned the corner in May this season, and has been a dominant pitcher with excellent control ever since.
In 21 starts from May 2, Kershaw has a 2.26 ERA, 0.96 WHIP, less than 2 BB/9, 9.9 SO/9 (and so a 5.0 SO/BB ratio), while averaging 7.21 IP/G.
August 24th, 2011 at 11:17 am
Re: the Jeter sac bunt -- I'm still hoping someone will point me to a later edition of Tangotiger's Win Expectancy chart (I can't find one). But here's what the 2002 edition says about that situation (based on the run context of that era):
In the bottom of the 9th:
-- With the tying run on 1st and 0 outs, the home team's Win Expectancy is 0.331.
-- With the tying run on 2nd and 1 out, the home team's WE is 0.282.
-- Therefore, all other things being equal, the sac bunt significantly decreased the Yanks' chance of winning.
http://www.tangotiger.net/welist.html
(Note: Since the score situations in the chart range only from -1 run to +1 run, I used the section of the chart for "home team -1" and looked at the baserunner situation as featuring only the trail runner -- i.e., pretending that the lead runner had already scored. I think the calculations would be virtually unchanged.)
This analysis does not, of course, account for all the other things that might have happened from a sac bunt attempt, but I don't think that the net of those variables -- which range from very bad (double play) to very good (everyone safe on 2-base error, winning run to 2nd) -- could be a significant plus for the home team.
One thing the sac bunt did achieve: It virtually assured that at least one of the two big sluggers would get a chance at a game-winning HR.
August 24th, 2011 at 11:23 am
I didn't like the Jeter bunt (from the Yankees' end) because Bailey is an extreme flyball pitcher who rarely gets a DP, and Jetes himself has been much less DP-prone this year than in recent seasons.
August 24th, 2011 at 11:38 am
Re: Kemp's Triple Crown chances:
-- Batting Average: Kemp (.321) seems a real longshot to catch Reyes (.336), who needs just 40 more PAs this year to qualify and is expected to be activated Monday (knock wood).
Even if Reyes slumps to .330, Kemp (at his current rate of ABs per game) would have to hit over .360 for the rest of the season to reach .330.
And there are 2 other guys ahead of him, including the red-hot Ryan Braun (.328).
-- HRs: Kemp is only 2 HRs off the lead, but with 3 guys ahead and 1 tied.
-- RBI: Kemp is 5 behind, but with 2 prolific "RBI men" ahead.
Anyway, I hope he doesn't make it -- not because I don't like him, but because I want to like him. I want to like him, but every time I see him play, he is "styling," and I can't stand it. I can only imagine how a Triple Crown would go to his head.
August 24th, 2011 at 11:46 am
JT@1 -- "Didn't the Mets have another guy get tagged out at home without sliding some time in the past couple weeks?"
Oh, at least one other. Here's one -- Ruben Tejada makes 3rd out at home with no slide, trying to score on a flyball with the Mets down 4 runs in the 4th:
http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/NYN/NYN201108100.shtml
Sometimes I miss Alex Cora ... he can't hit at all, but he sure as hell knows what to do with himself on a ballfield.
August 24th, 2011 at 11:47 am
JA, the largest lead the Brewers have ever had was on June 23, 2007, 8.5 games.
http://www.baseball-reference.com/games/standings.cgi?date=2007-06-23
That season they started out a red hot 24-10 and eventually faded into a disappointing 83-79.
Also it looks like a pretty good chance of Braun/Fielder finishing 1-2 in the MVP voting, with Matt Kemp being the only threat to sneak in between them. Anyway to see all the teammates who finished 1-2 in the MVP voting? I remember Bonds/Kent did in 2000 and Mantle/Maris did it in 60 and 61.
August 24th, 2011 at 12:02 pm
Neil -- Brandon Morrow sure is an odd case.
For the 2nd straight year, he's averaging over 10 Ks per 9 IP, but with a subpar ERA.
In the past 20 years, there have been 32 SP-seasons with between 10 and 11 SO/9 (min. 100 IP). The median ERA+ of that group is 140; only 5 have come in under 100, including Morrow's 2010-11 campaigns.
I know it's frustrating, but don't give up on him. His control has improved over the last 2 seasons; his 3.3 BB/9 is close to the AL average, and of course his K rate is fantastic. He doesn't give up a lot of HRs.
If you look at his career splits for bases empty / men on, you'd think he loses effectiveness from the stretch. But his K rates are the same, and his HR rate is just a fraction higher with men on. He's never allowed a grand slam.
There are no guarantees, but it sure as heck looks like Morrow has the ability to be an ace, and (without meaning to absolve him entirely) has suffered some bad luck. All his basic rates are better than last year, even his BABIP -- and yet his results are worse.
But as long as he doesn't get frustrated or injured, I like his chances.
August 24th, 2011 at 12:15 pm
When the Mariners scored 12 runs yesterday, it was the first time they scored 10 or more since April 27th against Justin Verlander and the Tigers, 10-1. The only other game where they have scored 10 or more was April 19th (also against the Tigers), when the M's won 13-3. I'm assuming that's the fewest number of games scoring 10 or more this year (3)?
Brandon League has 5 blown saves this year. The Mariners came back and won one of those and lost the other 4. Those 4 games were all in away games, 2 in Baltimore and 2 in Cleveland (he gave up a walk-off grand slam to Travis Hafner earlier in the year). In Baltimore, he has allowed 4 R, 6 H in 1 inning (2 games) and in Cleveland, he has allowed 6 R (5 ER), 7 H & 2 HR in 1 2/3 innings of work (3 games). So, if you cut out those 5 games, League has allowed just 12 Runs (6 earned) in 46 2/3 innings, or a 1.16 ERA! Outside of Maryland and Ohio, League's been about as good as you can get!
August 24th, 2011 at 12:16 pm
My apologies.
I didnt watch the game, just read the play by play recap.
Thought Martin was already on 3rd.
In the actual scenario, having Jeter and his 244 double plays bunt is not all that bad.
What IS bad is that
the Highlanders have a .611 wp &
the Amercians have a .609 wp
yet the greatest statistical resource in the history of recorded history has the Americans in 1st place on their home page.
August 24th, 2011 at 12:25 pm
Topper, thanks for the info on the Brewers' biggest lead ever.
August 24th, 2011 at 12:26 pm
...though I'd still prefer a hit and run.
Yes, with a catcher on second base and no outs.
August 24th, 2011 at 12:30 pm
Re: Fielder and Braun as MVP's:
Anybody that faces Ross Ohlendorf throwing batting practice has a shot at MVP.
Come on, Neal: package him and Pedro for a lefty relief specialist and a mid-level shortstop prospect and I'll sleep better tonight and you will win the NL Central next year.
Your buddy,
Skeeb
August 24th, 2011 at 12:52 pm
Topper, re: teammates finishing #1-2 in the MVP vote (which I do not see happening with Braun/Fielder), I count 25 prior cases, including 3 with the top 3 all on 1 team:
-- 2000 NL, Bonds/Kent
-- 1990 NL, Bonds/Bonilla
-- 1989 NL, Mitchell/Clark
-- 1983 AL, Ripken/Murray
-- 1976 NL, Morgan/Foster
-- 1971 AL, Blue/Bando
-- 1968 AL, McLain/Freehan
-- 1967 NL, Cepeda/McCarver
-- 1966 AL, F.Robinson/B.Robinson/Powell (top 3 on BAL)
-- 1965 AL, Versalles/Oliva
-- 1962 AL, Mantle/Richardson
-- 1961 AL, Maris/Mantle
-- 1960 AL, Maris/Mantle
-- 1960 NL, Groat/Hoak
-- 1959 AL, Fox/Aparacio/Wynn (top 3 on CHW)
-- 1956 AL, Mantle/Berra
-- 1956 NL, Newcombe/Maglie
-- 1955 NL, Campanella/Snider
-- 1945 AL, Newhouser/E.Mayo
-- 1944 AL, Newhouser/Trout (2nd-place team)
-- 1943 NL, Musial/W.Cooper
-- 1942 NL, M.Cooper/Slaughter
-- 1941 NL, Camilli/Reiser/Wyatt (top 3 on BRO)
-- 1934 AL, Cochrane/Gehringer
-- 1914 NL, Evers/Maranville
Note that, before 1931, at various times (a) no MVP award was given, (b) no player could win more than once, and/or (c) player/managers were ineligible.
--------------
Oddity: In the 1939-40 NL MVP votes, the same 4 players made up the top 4 each year, with a Red winning each year, followed by a Cardinal and 2 Reds.
-- 1939, Walters/Mize/Derringer/McCormick
-- 1940, McCormick/Mize/Walters/Derringer
August 24th, 2011 at 12:54 pm
Did the grunt work, John, and you're quite correct; this is the largest lead in the history of the Brew Crew.
August 24th, 2011 at 1:27 pm
Followup re: Braun/Fielder as potential #1/2 in MVP vote:
Kemp is well ahead of the field with 7.5 Wins Above Replacement; Braun is 2nd at 6.2 WAR; Fielder (4.1 WAR) is not among the top 10.
On the other hand, the NL leaders in Win Probability Added:
1. Votto, 6.8
2. Fielder, 6.3
3. Braun, 4.6
4. Kemp, 4.4
Still, Kemp and Braun both play more important defensive positions than Fielder and rate above average in the field, and they are also much better baserunners. I can't put Fielder in the top 3 of the MVP race.
August 24th, 2011 at 1:42 pm
Braun's power stats are in line with Fielder's and he has stolen nearly 30 bases already, in addition to the defensive boost. There's no question the Brewers wouldn't be where they are without Fielder, but there's also no question who would be a lot easier to replace.
August 24th, 2011 at 1:43 pm
JA, since when do you think the MVP voting will use WAR in their voting? It would be interesting to see how many of them even know what WAR is and can give a basic explanation of it.
What matters to the voters = playoffs, batting average, HRs, RBI, SBs and clutchness, and somewhat OPS and really, really good defensive reputation. They do not care about position except for heavily penalizing DHs and pitchers.
Braun has a good shot at the batting title, leads the league in runs scored, SLG and OPS to go along with probably near 30 HRs/40 SBs.
Fielder can finish hitting above .300 and lead the majors in RBIs.
Kemp is not leading the league in anything except total bases (how many voters care about that?), he is just way up there in everything like Braun, but plays better defense (not that the voters know this or care). However, the Dodgers are way out of it which will really hurt his chances.
August 24th, 2011 at 2:23 pm
@38, Topper -- I misinterpreted your post. Looking back, I see that you were clearly talking about the "horse race" aspect -- who will win it, not who should win it.
August 24th, 2011 at 2:33 pm
More @38 -- Many of the things you said are true, although I don't see that Braun has "a good shot" at the batting title. (What would be an accepted definition of "a good shot"? Even money? One in four?)
Nor is Braun is going to steal any 40 bags: (a) he's on pace for 35, and (b) he's an opportunist, not a speedster, and opportunists whose team has basically clinched by September do not tend to run a lot more than they have to.
But they definitely could both finish in the top 3.
August 24th, 2011 at 2:41 pm
If it were over today, Braun would win and second place would be more a reflection of regional bias than having a clearly superior candidate. Some Rockies fans giving too much love to Tulo along with some honorable mention votes from most regular guys might swing him into the top spot. Fielder isn't going to get local love first place votes due to Braun so I can't see him getting second for that reason alone.
August 24th, 2011 at 2:41 pm
I meant two spot, not top spot.
August 24th, 2011 at 3:36 pm
After the Brewers just lost today, for their all-time record 11th road shutout compared to no home goose eggs, Ryan Braun is at .330, with Reyes at .336. I would say they both have almost an equal chance at winning the title, just off the top of my head. I cant imagine a 6 point lead in August would give you more than a 60% chance of winning.
Plus, Reyes will be returning from an injury so it might take him a little bit to get his timing back, will he be doing a minor league rehab assignment? Also, Reyes could get hurt again before 502 PAs which causes extra outs to be added to his AVE.
August 24th, 2011 at 3:44 pm
Braun is not an opportunist base stealer, he is 7th in the NL with his 29th swipe today. He pulled his calf earlier this season which caused him to miss ~10 games and shut him down from stealing for over a month, but now he is looking fine and running all the time. Before the injury he had 19 SBs in 83 games, on pace for 37. Then he did not tally an SB until team game 113, but since then he has 10 in 19 games, at that pace for the remaining 30 games he will finish with 44 SBs.
Now you have a good point about clinching early, but that is still 3 weeks away as the Brewers magic number is at 23 right now with StL losing 6-1 in the 4th.
August 24th, 2011 at 3:48 pm
If Fielder leads the majors in RBIs he is going to get serious MVP consideration.
August 24th, 2011 at 4:26 pm
yay, another debate about the value of RBI's. I'll get in my RE24's before other people complain about how many runners fielder has gotten. Here's the NL over 50 list:
Votto: 59.3
Fielder: 51.1
Braun: 50.5
August 24th, 2011 at 4:29 pm
@46, Im not saying RBI should matter, Im saying they do matter, in the eyes of the voters. I seriously doubt any MVP voter knows what RE24 is/means or what a good value in that category is.
August 24th, 2011 at 4:39 pm
@44, Topper -- "since then he has 10 in 19 games, at that pace for the remaining 30 games he will finish with 44 SBs."
You're pulling my leg, right? You're not really suggesting that Ryan Braun's typical rate of successful base-stealing is one every 2 games, or 80 per full season?
August 24th, 2011 at 5:12 pm
No but hes running a lot recently and I'm just showing what he'll do if he finishes at this rate. You can mentally adjust down and see that he has a good chance at getting "near 40 SBs" which is what I said in my original prediction in post 38.
August 24th, 2011 at 5:20 pm
Topper -- If Braun really is this kind of base-stealer (and I see he got another today), do you have any insight into why, in his first 4 seasons, per 162 games, he averaged 18 SB in 24 tries?
Some observations of my own about Braun's base-stealing:
Teams allowing the fewest SB in the NL:
-- #1, Arizona, 48 SB allowed. In 3 games against Arizona, Braun did not attempt a SB.
-- #2, St. Louis, 50 SB allowed. Braun went 1 for 1 in 11 games.
-- #3, Washington, 57 SB allowed. Braun tried no SB in 6 games.
-- #4, Cincinnati, 65 SB allowed. Braun went 1 for 2 in 9 games.
-- #5, Phillies, 80 SB allowed. Braun did not attempt a SB in 3 games.
Teams allowing the most SB in the NL:
-- #16, Padres, 115 SB allowed. Braun went 3 for 3 in 5 games.
-- #15, Houston, 110 SB allowed. Braun went 2 for 2 in 12 games.
-- #14, Atlanta, 103 SB allowed. Braun went 1 for 1 in 8 games.
-- #13, Mets, 102 SB allowed. Braun went 3 for 3 in 6 games.
-- #12, Dodgers, 96 SB allowed. Braun went 2 for 2 in 6 games.
Braun's totals for the 4 toughest teams: 32 games, 3 attempts, 2 SB.
Braun's totals for the 4 easiest teams: 33 games, 11 attempts, 11 SB.
That is an opportunist.
August 24th, 2011 at 5:27 pm
Does anyone know of 2 Asian-born players who homered for the same team in the same game before?
Ichiro and Kenji Johjima would be my best guess, next would be any combination of nomo, hee seop choi and dave roberts?
August 24th, 2011 at 5:52 pm
@50, Im not sure how you can be 7th in the league and still an opportunist, I would imagine every player in the league steals more against the teams that allow the most stolen bases. It is also obviously dependent on stealing chances, so it should somehow be normalized for that.
For example, you correctly stated he had 0 SBs in 3 games against AZ, yet he had 1 SB chance in those games, so you don't really have a good argument with that one. In those 3 games he hit 2 2Bs, 1 with 2 outs and the other to lead off the 6th inning trailing 0-2 for his only SB chance, although it was 3rd. He also hit 2 HRs and 1 single with a runner in front of him with 0 walks in those 3 games.
To get back to your question, there are 2 reasons he has not run as much previously in his career,
1) He has hit in front of Prince Fielder his entire career, which means running is more risky, probably the main reason he runs less against good throwing catchers.
2) 2 years of Ken Macha = no running allowed. This year Ron Roenicke has basically given Braun the green light and these are the results he can produce with the green light.
August 24th, 2011 at 8:17 pm
Hey guys. No mention of Astros RP/OF Wesley Wright?
In case you missed it, the Rockies beat the Astros 8-6, but in the Rockies only 1-2-3 inning, in which Cargo fouled out, Tulo grounded out to short, and Helton struck out looking... Astros reliever, Wesley Wright got Cargo and Helton out and played right field in between while David Carpenter retired Tulo!
I've criticized manager, Brad Mills, all season, but I am quite impressed by this.
Also wondering how rare this is! Any ideas?
From Yahoo's play-by-play:
- W. Wright relieved F. Rodriguez
- C. Gonzalez fouled out to catcher
- W. Wright in right field
- D. Carpenter relieved W. Wright
- T. Tulowitzki grounded out to shortstop
- J.B. Shuck in right field
- W. Wright relieved D. Carpenter
- T. Helton struck out looking
August 24th, 2011 at 8:51 pm
By the way, I am still trying to locate the database search tool on here. I am wondering if I can search..
"save situation" + "finishes game" + "no blown save" + "no save".
(I believe this would produce a list of every time a win negated a save by rule 10.17b and 10.17c).
August 24th, 2011 at 9:08 pm
@53, Brett -- Great find! We love it when pitchers play a fielding position!
One famous example is this 14-inning Mets game against the Reds in '86:
http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/CIN/CIN198607220.shtml
For those who don't know ... The Mets ran out of position players not because of the length of the game, but because 2 from the lineup (and perhaps others from the bench) were ejected after a brawl that started at 3B between Ray Knight and Eric Davis. (I tried to find a video, but all those listed seem to have been removed -- you've gotta love MLB!) Here's one description:
http://baseballcrank.com/archives2/2003/04/baseball_knight.php
For the last 4-1/3 innings, Jesse Orosco and Roger McDowell alternated between pitcher and RF/LF, depending on who was batting, and batted consecutively in the order. They switched mid-inning in the 10th and 11th; Orosco pitched the full 12th, and McDowell pitched the last 2 innings. The Mets went ahead in the 14th on Howard Johnson's 3-run HR, scoring Orosco, who had walked. (Out of 69 career non-sacrifice PAs, Orosco drew 8 walks.)
It would have presented a fascinating official scoring decision if Orosco had gone back to the mound for the bottom of the 14th. I believe the save rule says you have to "enter the game" in a save situation; but what if you're already in the game and pitched earlier, but return to pitch later in a save situation? Alas, the 1st and 3rd batters due in the 14th were RHBs, so McDowell stayed on. Maybe someone out there knows how it would have been scored?
August 24th, 2011 at 9:31 pm
Brett, it sounds like you're looking for the Play Index. You should be able to find it on the B-R home page, in the upper left area, or use this link:
http://www.baseball-reference.com/play-index/
There are many kinds of searches. I'm not sure if what you're after can be searched directly, but normally, to find a player/game meeting certain performance criteria, you would start by clicking "Player Pitching" under "Game Finders."
But I don't think the Pitching Game Finder lets us specify all the criteria you laid out -- finished the game, save opp, no save, no blown save. So let's try the Pitching Streak Finder instead. (We're not looking for a streak, of course, but the Streak Finder will return single games as well.)
Keep in mind that Streak Finders take more time, and there's an automatic time-out built in, so you'll have to experiment with chunks of seasons to see how many years you can search at one time without bombing out. I'm going to try this search in 5-year chunks.
Under "Pitcher Decision," choose "Save Opp."
Under "Find the Longest Streaks...," use the first 2 fields to select 2 of your criteria -- say, "GF" = 1, and "Saves" = 0.
Then, click the small print right under the big "Get Report" button that says 'Display additional, advanced criteria."
Use one of those fields to set "Blown Save" = 0.
Let's see what we get....
Well, bad news on my end: I've searched the past 20 years using those 4 criteria, and got no results, whereas we know that there a couple such games (right?). I must admit, I've had little luck on Streak Finders using the fields under "Display additional, advanced criteria"; maybe there's something on my end that interferes, I don't know.
You might try submitting your question to Raphy or one of the other bloggers listed on the right side of this page under "Contact."
August 24th, 2011 at 11:49 pm
Oddity: In the 1939-40 NL MVP votes, the same 4 players made up the top 4 each year, with a Red winning each year, followed by a Cardinal and 2 Reds.
From 1938-40, three different Reds won three consecutive MVPs (Lombardi, Walters, McCormick). A great trivia question. Which other teams did it?
Yankees 1941-43 (DiMaggio, Gordon, Chandler)
Cardinals 1942-44 (M. Cooper, Musial, Marion)
Yankees 1961-63 (Maris, Mantle, Howard)
......and one could include
A's 1928-32 (Cochrane, Grove, Foxx -- there was no MVP award in '29 and '30).
This came up in '08 when it looked like Utley had a chance to follow Howard and Rollins. Utley probably didn't deserve to win, but finishing 14th was ludicrous.
-wta
August 24th, 2011 at 11:57 pm
I tried to find a video, but all those listed seem to have been removed -- you've gotta love MLB!
They're trying to direct traffic to their own site for video clips. Of course, not everything is there, especially old stuff. If they're going to knock out others' videos, they should at least put them up on MLB.com. Stupid copyright laws.
August 25th, 2011 at 12:12 am
Not sure if your last sentence was facetious, JT. I'm against neither copyright laws in general nor MLB protecting its rights -- but it does seem very silly that the laws let MLB prevent public viewing of a 25-year-old short video clip that has almost no conceivable commercial value.
And it's a darn shame their site is so clunky.
August 25th, 2011 at 12:13 am
@53, Brett -- Looks like that was Wesley Wright's first appearance at a regular fielding position in his 9-year pro career.
BTW ... Dequam LaWesley Wright?
http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/w/wrighwe01.shtml
August 25th, 2011 at 12:33 am
@JT - and an honorable mention to the Big Red Machine. NL MVP top-3 finishes from 1970-1977 (first-place votes in parentheses):
'70 - Bench, CIN (22), Williams, CHC (2), Perez, CIN. Rose was 7th.
'71 - Torre, StL (21), Stargell, PIT (3), Aaron, ATL.
'72 - Bench, CIN (11), Williams, CHC (5), Stargell, PIT (2). Morgan (5) was 4th, just four points behind Pops.
'73 - Rose, CIN (12), Stargell, PIT (10), Bonds, SF (1). Morgan (1) 4th again, and Perez 7th.
'74 - Garvey, LA (13), Brock, StL (8), Marshall, LA (1). Bench 4th, Morgan 8th (slacker!)
'75 - Morgan, CIN (22), Luzinski, PHL; Parker, PIT. Bench 4th again, three points behind Parker; Rose (2) 5th, three points behind Bench.
'76 - Morgan, CIN (19), Foster, CIN (5), Schmidt, PHL. Rose 4th, Original Griffey 8th.
'77 - Foster, CIN (15), Luzinski, PHL (9), Parker, PIT.
First, of course, is the dazzling number of HoFers and near-HoFers on that list, and Mike Marshal. Second are the guys who were completely jobbed, like Michael Jack Schmidt (who was insane in '74 and darn near it in '77). And third, that's six in eight years for the Reds, finishing with three straight - just not three different players, just missing your criteria.
Still... that's two for Bench (with two 4ths); two for Morgan (with two 4ths and an 8th); a first and second for Foster (with a 3rd place in 1981); a 1, 4, 5, and 7 for Rose (plus a 2nd and 4th in '68 and '69); and a 3rd and 7th for Perez. That's not a half-bad ballclub.
August 25th, 2011 at 12:40 am
Nightfly, you're right -- helluva club there. I think they need a nickname! 🙂
August 25th, 2011 at 12:47 am
re: Knight v. Davis - I saw that game on TV as it happened. Eric Davis came in very hard on a slide at third and Knight didn't give any ground on it. Someone then said something impertinent, and Knight (who had boxed in the Gold Gloves as a teen) slugged Davis. A melee ensued.
The Amazin's were a brawling, rowdy bunch in those times, to state it gently. To make me and John Autin feel really old... that was 25 years ago. (We wore onions on our belts, which was the fashion at the time.)
Found this really good article by Marty Noble about the '86 Mets via mlb.com. One thing it reminds me of was the nightclub incident in Houston that had four Mets (including Tim Teufel and Ron Darling) in trouble with the law. I had forgotten that this was only a few days before Knight and Davis set Riverfront Stadium on tilt. But still, maddeningly, no video of it.
August 25th, 2011 at 12:56 am
Ah, Mets memories ... Gotta turn in, though, Nightfly. I'm cold, and there are wolves after me.
August 25th, 2011 at 1:22 pm
What about Konerko's milestone?
2000 not that important huh?
http://midwaymadness.com/?p=3847
August 25th, 2011 at 2:15 pm
John - thanks for sharing the search tips. Do you think save opps is calculated by summing saves and blown saves? If so, our search is fruitless.
Also, thanks for the Orosco/McDowell story. Those two eventually went on to become two of the most likeable and reliable Orioles relievers. Orosco, '95-'99 and McDowell, '96.
I now fully understand your point about about my suggestion for the language revision of the save rule. Under my proposed revision to the save rule, if the pitcher enters in the middle of an inning (with one or two outs remaining, bases empty, and a 3-run lead), then it could be a save situation, but only if the lead is still 3 runs (or less) at the start of the next inning. Thus, you were absolutely correct that the current save rule allows for all situations to be determined a save situation, or not, at the time the relief pitcher enters the game. My revision, of course, would eliminate the simplicity of this (as you said it would). I also now recognize a mistake in my revision, but I'll spare everyone the details.
August 25th, 2011 at 2:45 pm
@65, Kyle -- I'm happy to hear about Konerko's 2,000th hit.
But you sound aggrieved, and you really shouldn't be. What I do is read as many box scores and play-by-play accounts as I can -- I specifically don't read written recaps -- and then I comment on whatever things come to mind, statistical or otherwise.
If I had independently discovered Konerko's milestone hit, I might have mentioned it. Then again, I might not have done so. You see, I'm not trying to replace your local newspaper or other source for game reports -- virtually all of which, I assume, reported Konerko's #2,000.
What I try to come up with -- though I often fail -- are things that you won't read elsewhere. They may be dull, they may be arcane, and sometimes they're wrong, but they're original to me.
With that understanding, I hope you enjoy them.
August 25th, 2011 at 5:54 pm
Seriously. I don't understand the constant complaining about stuff that was "left out." If JA gets something wrong, I'm sure he'd appreciate a correction. But where would anyone get the idea his recaps are intended to be comprehensive? If you think there's something important to be shared, share it! There's unlimited space here and it's free to post.
JA, maybe you should just start appending a disclaimer to all of your entries. I'd hate for you to get so frustrated with the whiners that you just don't bother anymore.