D-backs swap Kelly Johnson for Aaron Hill
Posted by John Autin on August 23, 2011
ESPN.com is reporting that Arizona has dealt Kelly Johnson to the Blue Jays for 2B Aaron Hill and UT John McDonald. No financial terms were reported.
Can you remember a 1st-place team trading a starting middle infielder at this stage of the season?
Johnson isn't having a good season, but neither are the players AZ got back. Hill slumped badly last year after hitting 36 HRs in '09; and although his absurd .196 BAbip last year suggested a rebound might be expected, he's actually been worse this year, losing virtually all his power.
Toronto GM Alex Anthopoulos seems to have been on a mission of picking off other teams' undervalued and/or younger assets lately. But Johnson and Hill will both be 30 next year, and Johnson has been down more than up in the last 3 years. He does have legitimate power -- more than half his career HRs have come in road games -- and he'll take a walk, unlike Hill. But Johnson's strikeouts have skyrocketed in the past 2 seasons, to more than 1 per game. Still, I guess Johnson is a marginal improvement over Hill, and gives the Jays a little more lefty/righty balance. So, pending financial disclosures, I like Toronto's end.
What do you think about this deal?
August 23rd, 2011 at 4:45 pm
It's hard to see it as a major deal for either team, though either Hill of Johnson might benefit from a change of scenery. Johnny Mac is a very useful guy, fun to watch. Sorry to see him go.
August 23rd, 2011 at 4:49 pm
Challenge trade. "You take our 2B we don't know what the hell his problem is, we'll take your 2B you don't know what the hell his problem is."
Defense might be the difference here. Johnson and Hill are comparable, but Johnson's more consistent while Hill's had a couple of very nice "up" years as measured by WAR.
John McDonald's a fan favorite, but fungible. His defense was always nice to have on the bench, but not for $1.5mil per.
August 23rd, 2011 at 5:07 pm
Part of Arizona's thinking may be that Hill will perform more consistently in AZ due to it being 2,000 miles closer to home (Visalia, California).
August 23rd, 2011 at 5:11 pm
Kelly Johnson's a free-agent at end of the season and he might net the Jays a compensatory pick for losing a possible Type-A free-agent.
August 23rd, 2011 at 5:16 pm
@4, Ankit -- Good point. I should have noticed that Johnson was about to be a free agent.
August 23rd, 2011 at 5:17 pm
Toronto may be doing a firing sale. Hill is making $4 Mill. Johnson is only making $2.3. Toronto has never fully recovered from the strike in '94. Not sure why they traded for Johnson, whose numbers aren't any better than Hill's. MacDonald is nearing the end of his career. Really makes no sense to me, though.
August 23rd, 2011 at 5:42 pm
Dealing Johnson also fits with the DBacks' new regime who really, really wants to get rid of the high-K atmosphere of the last few years. Dealt Mark Reynolds in the off-season, worked on Upton, Young and Montero to quit working so deep into counts and swing more early in the count (all 3 have significantly lower K & BB rates this year) and now found a solid replacement for Kelly Johnson and his high-power but high-K bat. Hill strikes out a lot less.
August 23rd, 2011 at 5:42 pm
If the season ended today, Johnson is a Type B free agent, which would get Toronto only a comp pick.
Trade makes no sense.
August 23rd, 2011 at 7:05 pm
I too really don't understand this move. A first place club sends a 0.2 WAR second baseman for a -0.3 second baseman. Doesn't make sense.
On the other hand, perhaps it went down like this. AZ was looking at getting McDonald, but Toronto would only trade him if Arizona takes Hill also. Well, it makes as much sense as anything.
August 23rd, 2011 at 7:30 pm
I am forced to disagree with you on this one, John -- respectfully, of course. Given Hill's peripherals, I think he'll make out like a tall dog in Arizona; while Johnson will probably suffer away from the dry air and Chase Field. Getting McDonald in the deal only made it that much sweeter for the D'backs.
August 23rd, 2011 at 7:45 pm
Frank -- I missed the fact that Johnson will be a free agent and not likely to bring a Type-A draft pick. That info makes it seem like just a salary dump by Toronto -- although, actually, I'm not sure of Hill's contract status, either. His B-R page says that 2012-14 are all team options, but with the confusing note that "club must exercise 2014 option before 2011." Hunh?
Anyway, it's sort of a head-scratcher on both ends. For Arizona, they swapped a roughly average offensive 2B (this year) for one who's been just awful with the bat over the past 2 years. They do get McDonald's glove, and they can use some help at SS with Drew out. But McDonald can't hit, either. And it seems like their biggest priority right now would be their offense, which has scored 6 runs in 6 games.
August 23rd, 2011 at 7:51 pm
Arizona just cost themselves any chance of winning the division. Are you sure their GM doesn't work for the Giants?
August 23rd, 2011 at 8:45 pm
@11-- JA, my understanding is that Toronto has already declined on the '14 option. '12 and '13 are still on the table, but at a number that makes them unlikely, given Hill's performance.
August 23rd, 2011 at 9:12 pm
In my opinion, the trade is close to a wash, with each team trading their problems to the other.
The Blue Jays probably lost, though, because of giving up an incredibly popular player in John McDonald. Wait until the Diamondback's fans see his defense.
Diamonbacks come out ahead for this season, although Toronto may sign McDonald back as a free agent for 2012. There were hints to that effect in the press conference today.
August 23rd, 2011 at 10:51 pm
McDonald always put me in the mind of a personal favorite of my younger days, Roy McMillan, And, here again, he might find Chase Field at least a little more condusive to him transforming from "offensive liability" to just "below average bat".
August 23rd, 2011 at 11:06 pm
Aaron Hill is #1232 on the Fan EloRater and Kelly Johnson is #1233. The fans have spoken - no one won.
August 23rd, 2011 at 11:44 pm
How is type A/B free agents determined?
August 24th, 2011 at 12:01 am
I feel like Toronto has won, though possibly undersold Hill. To me, I see this trade and think that Anthopoulos is trying a similar dynamic to what won him Yunel Escobar. But the difference is that Hill was, though I'm doubtful that he'll reach it again, a genuine All-Star; Alex Gonzalez was always bouncing between "acceptable" and "goddamned terrible". But I think that Johnson has shown more facets than Hill; he's a good fielder, been a good average hitter, can walk, and can hit for power, and if he's given another chance in what seems like one of the best environments in the game right now, he can return to being a 3/4 win player, if not better.
Or I'm rationalizing to satiate the consummate Braves hater in me who wants to see an ex-Atlanta middle infield excel.
August 24th, 2011 at 12:08 am
Aaron Hill is #1232 on the Fan EloRater and Kelly Johnson is #1233. The fans have spoken - no one won.
Wow, that's crazy.
My initial reaction is that both should be rated quite a bit higher, but I'm not really sure. If someone had asked me "who is about the 1000th best player in history" I have no idea what type of player I would have named.
How did Kelly Johnson not make the All-Star team last year? I remember him getting off to an incredible start. Well, his OPS was down to about .850 by the time reserves would have been named, so I guess he could be overlooked -- I'm not bothering to check who did get named as a reserve at 2B. His OPS was over .900 into the middle of June.
How is type A/B free agents determined?
It's a secret formula (seriously) from Elias which rates every player in the majors, and then something like the top 30% at their position are Type A, and the next 20% or so are Type B. Every year there seem to be some odd results, like a fungible middle reliever being Type A. This is probably something that will change in the new CBA, because certain players, like the aforementioned fungible reliever, are getting screwed in free agency because no one wants to give up a pick to sign them.
MLB Trade Rumors has attempted to reverse engineer the process to project A/B status.
http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2011/08/elias-rankings-update-1.html
August 24th, 2011 at 12:09 am
Adding to the Elo oddity: Yunel Escobar is #1236.
August 24th, 2011 at 12:24 am
As a Jays fan, this seems to be a wash, especially if MacDonald comes back next year anyway.
Long-time reader, but first-time typer. How do I create a post in here? I just signed up, and have an interesting question for someone who can properly manipulate the Play Index...
August 24th, 2011 at 12:33 am
Brave, brave Concord, you shall not have posted in vain!
You can just post your question in a comment here, and I'll take a look at it tomorrow. Or you can send an e-mail using one of the links under "Contact" on the right side of the screen (but not to me).
August 24th, 2011 at 12:42 am
Haha, much appreciated, John.
My question pertains to the Angels rookie (didn't catch the name; saw the highlight from another room) whose first career home run came a few days ago, and was of the inside-the-park variety. I was curious how many times that has happened before, if it's even searchable.
Seriously though, how DO you make a post in the blog? :-7
August 24th, 2011 at 1:08 am
I think you just did. Twice.
August 24th, 2011 at 3:23 am
No no, I meant creating a NEW entry in the blog, one that others would read and comment on.
August 24th, 2011 at 9:15 am
Yawn...must have been a slow day, JA.
August 24th, 2011 at 9:34 am
Hill represents a clear case where BABIP doesn't indicate anything about luck. Look at his IFFB% since 2009. It supports the observation that he has popped up a ton in the past two years, and that accounts for his weak offensive performance.
August 24th, 2011 at 9:37 am
@25
Concord, none of us have blog creation privileges in BR except John A., Andy, Steve Lombardi, Neil Paine and Raphy. We can only comment on what they create or send a blog suggestion via email, as mentioned above.
August 24th, 2011 at 12:40 pm
Hey Neil, is your avatar a pic from last night's Blue Jays game? Or, is it still a little early in the season for that...... 😉
August 24th, 2011 at 12:50 pm
Andy, Steve, Raphy and Neil:
Just tried to e-mail you with a blog idea, and was told that the default mail client {whatever that means} wasn't available. Bearing in mind that my computer training included the use of punch cards {yes, it was that lomg ago}, do you have any suggestions?
August 24th, 2011 at 1:48 pm
Am I the only guy that sees more potential in Hill than he's showing? I mean, both guys are underachieving but Hill seems like a higher level talent to me. Also, I don't think the d-backs are just looking at this year. They see hill as a reasonably priced option for many years to come.
August 24th, 2011 at 1:57 pm
Concord -- I can't find a record of any Angel hitting an inside-the-park HR this year.
Perhaps you meant Jose Altuve of Houston, whose first career HR on August 20 was an IPHR:
http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/HOU/HOU201108200.shtml
Or Cubs rookie Tony Campana, who did it Aug. 5:
http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/CHN/CHN201108050.shtml
Those are the only ones I can find from this year.
BTW, there isn't a direct way to find only "IPHR-as-first-HR" using the Play Index/Event Finder. Let me know if you want to hear more about the method.
August 24th, 2011 at 2:01 pm
@26, Larry R. --
Sorry to disturb your sleep! But since you're up, couldn't you at least try answering the question that was the subtext of the post?
"Can you remember a 1st-place team trading a starting middle infielder at this stage of the season?"
Then you can go back to snoring, or snarking, or whatever you like best....
August 24th, 2011 at 2:07 pm
@31, Mosc -- According to B-R salary data, Aaron Hill has team options at $8 million for 2012 and 2013.
If Aaron Hill at $8 mil a year is a reasonably priced option, I must be farther out-of-touch than I realize.
August 24th, 2011 at 3:10 pm
#33
This wasn't because of a trade, but the Indians in 1920 had to replace their star shortstop, Ray Chapman, after he was hit and killed by a pitch. His replacement? Joe Sewell, the ultimate contact hitter.
August 24th, 2011 at 3:56 pm
mixed emotions on hill...he's my age and from my hometown, but went to our rival HS!
August 24th, 2011 at 4:00 pm
also @ 25:
This is a blog, not a forum!
August 24th, 2011 at 5:36 pm
So, Cheese, what's the rival HS to Redwood High in Visalia, CA?
August 24th, 2011 at 7:07 pm
Thanks for that research, John. It was definitely the Astro, now that I think of it. I'm curious how often that happens, but the PI isn't all-knowing...yet.
August 24th, 2011 at 8:58 pm
Did all 3 of these players have to clear waivers for this trade to take effect?
August 24th, 2011 at 9:04 pm
@18 Johnson was always very streaky in Atlanta. I'm not sure if that's been the case in Arizona or not. He debuted in '05 and immediately went 0-for a bunch, followed by a decent surge. In '08, he was having a disappointing year before tearing it up for the last stretch of the season. In '09, he never could shake a slump and lost the 2B job to Prado for good midseason.
Defensively, he was adequate, but always had trouble going to his backhand side and was prone to dropping a pop-fly here and there.
As I said, I don't know the specifics of how he's played for the last 2 years, but Johnson has always been somewhat of an enigma.
August 24th, 2011 at 9:08 pm
Mount Whitney Pioneers!!! Boo Redwood 🙂
August 24th, 2011 at 9:09 pm
http://maps.google.com/maps?q=Visalia,+CA&hl=en&ll=36.326034,-119.298306&spn=0.01466,0.026736&sll=37.0625,-95.677068&sspn=58.164117,109.511719&vpsrc=6&z=16
August 24th, 2011 at 9:09 pm
I didn't play football or baseball though so never played against him. I was bball and water polo.
August 24th, 2011 at 9:18 pm
Shane Costa is also my age.
http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/c/costash01.shtml
He went to another H.S. in town (Golden West). That's about it for Majors players of my age group.
( he didn't make the bigs. A class above me:
http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=rico--001mat )
August 24th, 2011 at 10:34 pm
On May 27, 2007, in a game against the Twins, the Blue Jays used the following infield:
1b Overbay
2b Hill
3b Roberts
Ss McDonald
For tonight's game in Washington, the Diamondbacks used the exact same infield.
Has this ever happened before?
August 24th, 2011 at 11:02 pm
@29
Nash, very funny! You thought I wouldn't notice.
I haven't picked on your Twinkies lately, have I? 🙂
I vented about the inept Blue Jays in a couple of other posts.
August 24th, 2011 at 11:10 pm
It's too early to evaluate the trade, but Hill and McDonald went 0-8 in tonight's game, with three strikeouts. Hill left four runners on base.
Arizona fans, get used to that kind of performance from Hill.
August 24th, 2011 at 11:14 pm
Cheese, what happened to Matt Rico's late-starting pitching career?
August 24th, 2011 at 11:15 pm
@48, Neil L -- But maybe Hill will be a lucky charm for AZ as Brian Schneider is for the Phillies! He hasn't hit a lick, but the Phils are 24-3 in his starts. 🙂
August 24th, 2011 at 11:18 pm
@46, Davo -- That is a cool find!
Have you ever seen Citizen Kane? I guess the Jays are the Chronicle and the D-backs the Inquirer....
I have no idea if that's ever happened before. But if you check the roster of the early '20s Yankees, especially their pitching staff, you'll find an awful lot of ex-Red Sox.
August 24th, 2011 at 11:45 pm
@49: I don't know, that is odd. Perhaps one last ditch effort. Still, better than most.