Recapping relevant games of Monday, 9/19/2011
Posted by John Autin on September 20, 2011
-- Marlins 6, Braves 5: With 2 out in the last of the 9th, Omar Infante drilled a tailing-in fastball from Craig Kimbrel for a game-ending 2-run HR, his 6th HR of the year. Atlanta's wild-card lead is down to 2 losses over St. Louis; they've lost 8 games in the standings since August 23, going 9-15 while the Cards went 17-7.
- Kimbrel has allowed a HR on consecutive days, after yielding just 1 in his first 94.1 career IP. He's blown 2 of his last 4 save chances after converting 25 straight.
- Florida scored all 6 runs on HRs, 2 by Mike Stanton, including this bomb. With 34 HRs, Stanton is tied for 2nd in the NL (2 behind Albert Pujols) as well as in Marlins history; Gary Sheffield set that mark with 42 in 1996. Stanton is tied with Bob Horner at 56 HRs through age 21, 9th-most ever; next up are Mickey Mantle (57), Al Kaline (59) and Junior Griffey (60). Those last 3 had each had 500 to 1,000 more PAs than Stanton's 963.
- Could we make one solid rotation from the two wild-card leaders right now? The Braves have 1 Quality Start in their last 16 games, the Red Sox 3 in their last 22.
-- Cardinals 4, Phillies 3: Roy Halladay gave up 4 runs for the 1st time in 8 starts, including Lance Berkman's 31st HR in the 1st. The Phils scored 2 in the 9th off Jason Motte, inspiring TLR to make 2 more pitching changes that wound up with the HR-prone Octavio Dotel retiring Hunter Pence with the tying run aboard.
- Berkman had an RBI single in his 2nd trip, then was intentionally walked twice by Halladay with 2 out and 1st base open. The 2 IBBs matched Halladay's prior total this year; he gave 1 intentional pass last year and none the year before. It also matched his most IBBs in a game, which he did in 2006 (both in one inning, and it blew up on him for 3 decisive runs) and in 2002 (both to Barry Bonds; 3 runs scored after the 2 IBBs in those innings).
- Philly (98-54) still needs 4 wins to set a new franchise record.
-- Red Sox 23, Orioles 15: Boston broke out the good wood in a twin-bill, but had bad offensive spacing; they dropped the opener, 6-5, before whaling away for 20 hits in an 18-9 nightcap that was actually pretty tense before a 7-run 7th. They retained a 2-game lead on Tampa, but just 1 in the loss column; the Rays have 2 games in hand.
- The other bad news for the BoSox: they got just 9 IP total from starters Kyle Weiland and John Lackey, who both got raked; Lackey now has an historic 6.49 ERA in 27 starts. Alfredo Aceves pitched the last 3 innings of the day game on 53 pitches, so he's surely out for at least 1 game, if not 2. But they didn't use Jonathan Papelbon or Daniel Bard.
- Jacoby Ellsbury hit his 28th HR and has 98 RBI, 90 from the leadoff spot. He's also on the verge of setting a Red Sox record for total bases by a CF, held not by Fred Lynn '79 as you might guess, but Tony Armas '84. Armas had 339 total bases, Lynn (and now Ellsbury) 338.
- J.J. Hardy hit his 28th HR, the 3rd-most by an Oriole SS; Cal Ripken (1991) and Miguel Tejada (2004) each hit 34.
-- Blue Jays 3, Angels 2: One more nail in the coffin for the Angels, who now trail Texas by 5 full games. Adam Lind got the GWRBI in the bottom of the 10th on a "FC-RF," hitting a grounder to Torii Hunter stationed near 1B in a 5-man infield with a runner on 3rd and 1 out. Ricky Romero went 9 efficient innings (110 pitches) with 6 hits and 0 walks, allowing solo HRs to Hunter and Mark Trumbo.
- The Angels need to gain at least 2 games on Texas in the next 6 days to give themselves a shot in their season-ending series.
- The Jays are now exactly .500 over the past 10 years, with 9 seasons of 75 to 87 wins.
-- Cubs 5, Brewers 2: Geovany Soto drove in all 5 runs for Chicago, including a pair of HRs, and Casey Coleman got his first win since May 19. Milwaukee leads St. Louis by 5 losses.
- Ryan Braun (0-4) leads the batting race, .333-.331, over Jose Reyes.
-- Diamondbacks 1, Pirates 0: Ian Kennedy got win #20 in grand style, whiffing 12 in 8 innings of 1-hit ball, with 1 walk. The only hit was a single by opposing pitcher Jeff Karstens, an .078 career hitter. Justin Upton handled the offensive side with his 31st HR.
- J.J. Putz allowed a 1-out triple in the 9th, but kept the ball in the infield and locked up his 42nd save.
- Alex Presley has 6 triples in just 45 games.
- With Halladay losing tonight, might Kennedy sneak back into the Cy Young discussion? Not with Clayton Kershaw also on the brink of 20 wins, while leading in ERA and strikeouts. But Kennedy should place no worse than 3rd in the voting.
September 20th, 2011 at 1:33 am
I think the NL Cy Young Race will go 1) Kershaw 2) Halladay 3) Lee 4) Kennedy 5) Hamels
September 20th, 2011 at 2:48 am
Good stuff and good writing.
September 20th, 2011 at 3:04 am
Vladimir Guererro is batting .403 in September. Not a great year for Vladdy, but he's at .293 now and is finishing the year on a tear. Will he be a full time DH somewhere in 2012?
Just goes to show, if you don't take any walks, even a .293 average with a bit of power in a pitchers year doesn't make you that much of a hitter.
Still surprises me that Vladdy only has 58 rbi;s this year. He batted CLEANUP mostly and played 136 games. .293 with 154 hits and only 16 walks. Would've expected a higher RBI total.
September 20th, 2011 at 4:37 am
so, show of hands, who's shocked by the Braves' implosion?
September 20th, 2011 at 4:43 am
They still have a 2.5 game lead with 8 games to play. That's still hard to blow.
September 20th, 2011 at 5:23 am
their biggest strength (the bullpen) is betraying them. they've leaned so heavily on these young arms, they were bound to wear down.
September 20th, 2011 at 9:19 am
Alfredo Aceves for President.
I was amazed when the Yankees dumped him, and I'm even more amazed now. Throwing the bbref payroll page into the old windows calculator, The Sox have spent roughly $73M on pitching this year, which is probably more than the whole teams for a majority of clubs. And most Red Sox fans would be hard-pressed to name another Red Sox pitcher who hasn't completely fallen apart at least once this month.
David Ortiz is openly advocating for Aceves to join the rotation. All well and good, but who comes in when Lackey and Weiland and Wakefield get lit up, and they need four to six innings of relief? The bullpen's thin enough by their starts, because Lester and Beckett are suddenly pitching some of their most inefficient ball of the season, and are entering the sixth inning at over 100 pitches nearly every start. (That is, when they DO enter the sixth inning. Only two starters in seven games have recorded in out in the sixth.) And by the way, Ortiz: Aceves is 1-1, 5.14 as a starter, 8-1, 2.22 as a reliever this year. So... no.
Is it football season yet? /sigh
September 20th, 2011 at 9:30 am
@2
Amen to that. Love these.
September 20th, 2011 at 9:55 am
SI jinx! Sports Illustrated did a wonderful article on the back end of the Braves bullpen (Craig Kimbrell, Jonny Venters, Eric O'Flaherty) a week or so ago. I thought "They might as well have put them on the cover, they're guaranteed to start gakking now." Sure enough...
Seriously though, last year the Braves were in cruise control until they got hit by injuries just in time for the stretch run. Same thing this year; last year it was position players, this year it was the rotation. The loss of both Jair Jurrjens and Tommy Hanson, combined with the ineffectiveness of Derek Lowe, was devastating. They're having to use kids who, loaded with potential, simply aren't ready to lead a playoff staff yet. Is it any wonder the overtaxed bullpen finally started giving out?
The Braves' offense has been inconsistent all year, in spite of the fact they rank third in the NL in home runs. Nobody on the team will drive in 85 runs (as much as you guys hate that stat I had to bring it up). It surprised me to see a few nights ago that, glancing through team stats, the Braves batting actually compared favorably to the Phillies, considering the home parks.
You know, the Phillies might not be the locks for the world championship we think they are.
September 20th, 2011 at 10:10 am
@9, Stan S. -- Ah, the SI jinx! -- that's a relief to me! I thought I had put the kibosh on by trying to give them a nickname, the Zero Heroes.
September 20th, 2011 at 10:15 am
@1, Dark -- I may have unconsciously combined Halladay and Lee into a single entry; you're probably right about how the NL CYA voting should go.
I won't be surprised if Kennedy finishes 3rd, though, and even gets some 2nd-place votes. Voters may give some weight to his being the #1 starter for an unexpected contender with an originally-suspect rotation.
September 20th, 2011 at 10:22 am
What I meant was, compare the bandbox we call Citizens Bank Park to the more pitcher-friendly Turner Field. I would have figured there would be more than a 53-run difference between the offenses of the Phillies and Braves. Of course this also makes the performance of the Phillies' starters that much more impressive.
As you've probably figured I am an unabashed Braves fan, and you will recall that for many years my guys had one of the great rotations of all time (Maddux, Glavine, Smoltz, one year the number four guy Denny Neagle won 20 games). But take a look at the Braves' won-loss records from 1991-2005, and then consider they would up with only one world series title to show for that run. Great pitching does indeed give you a better chance to win, but you can't expect a shutout every night. The Phillies are still the favorites, but they are a far cry from being a lock to win it all.
September 20th, 2011 at 10:41 am
The Jays are now exactly .500 over the past 10 years, with 9 seasons of 75 to 87 wins.
Along the same line, the 2011 team, now at 78-75, has spent the entire season no more than four games over .500 (last reached on 8/18) and no fewer than five games under .500 (last reached on 7/7). As a Jays fan, I will mentally adjust their record for the strength of the other teams in their division and feel a little better for a short time.
I'm not going to research it today, but I wonder whether that nine-game band around .500 is the smallest ever for a team over the course of a full season.
September 20th, 2011 at 10:48 am
Let's see how good John's prognosticative skills are. From yesterday's recap:
"I foresee a split in Boston's day-night doubleheader with Baltimore. Jeremy Guthrie has allowed 3 runs in 16.1 IP against the Sox this year; in the day game, he'll match up for the 3rd time against Kyle Weiland, who gave the O's 9 runs in 10 IP in the first 2 games. Weiland has 6 Ks and 10 walks in 19 MLB innings, with 32 baserunners; look for Alfredo Aceves around the 4th inning. The nightcap is John Lackey against Brian Matusz; I'll take the veteran car crash over the fledgling train wreck."
Well done, M'sieu!
September 20th, 2011 at 10:59 am
@14, KT -- Aw, shucks!
I would have blown my horn in the recap, but I was 3 innings off on the arrival of Aceves.
And it didn't exactly take a crystal ball to predict Matusz getting crushed.
September 20th, 2011 at 11:17 am
@9 Anyone who thinks the Phillies are shoe=ins for the World Championship must not even be glancing at the SRS column in the standings here. It's hardly the be-all and end-all of judging team quality, but it does contain real information. The Phillies have dominated an inferior league. Assuming they don't get upset within the NL, they may be able to take on the AL winner, but don't give odds on it.
September 20th, 2011 at 11:26 am
So Yankee fans, do you root for TB to beet cha?
September 20th, 2011 at 11:48 am
And, in the irrelevant games summary, Wily Mo drew 3, count 'em 3, BBs!! Gives him 5 for the season.
September 20th, 2011 at 11:55 am
@18, Larry R -- I felt anxious about that title as soon as I shut off my computer last night; it's a relief to finally get tweaked about it!
I expected the tweak to focus on Mariano, though....
BTW, was surprised to find that Wily Mo has 1 other 3-walk game (also with no IBBs) and 10 games with 2 walks.
September 20th, 2011 at 12:01 pm
The Braves just have not been consistent this year. Chipper, Prado, McCann, Heyward, Moylan, Jurrjens, and Hanson have all been hurt. Rarely has Fredi put the same lineup out there in consecutive days. Uggla slumped horribly in the first half, Heyward, Gonzalez - all year. Prado has been slumping since his injury and probably never fully adjusted to playing LF. McCann has obviously been trying to play through the oblique and he probably shouldn't be playing. CF was a gaping hole until the Bourn trade and the only consistent regular has been Freeman (although he had a slow start).
Nothing has lined up really...the Braves get guys on base, then they can't get them in. I've been trying to avoid looking up how many guys they have LOB because I don't want to puke. O'Ventbrel has been great for most of the year, but they are tired out now. The biggest issue though is starting pitching. Lowe is done IMO, but Fredi keeps running him out there every 5th day because Jair and Tommy are out. Delgado and Teheran are able to step in, but those kids are on innings limits...Beachy and Minor same thing...only guy they can count on is Huddy and that's not enough at this point in the season.
It's been a frustrating season. Finally getting a speedster like Bourn was great, but you have to have timely hitting to go along with that speed. Not time to talk about next year yet, but realistically as a fan, you have to wonder about how far you can go even if you do get in. They're just not quite there yet...running on fumes right now...
September 20th, 2011 at 12:30 pm
@16, by eye-balling it, SRS has a very strong correlation with Pythagorean W/L, which would not be surprising since they are both based on runs scored and allowed. Of course SRS accounts for the relative strength of the leagues -- since it includes inter-league games -- while Pythagorean W/L doesn't. OTOH, the AL/NL difference in inter-league games is much less this year than it has been in the past, only 10 games.
September 20th, 2011 at 12:50 pm
704_Brave, I see the Braves have actually used two different lineups (not including pitchers) for at least 10 games each. In my random checks of such things over the years, that actually seems pretty high. They have used 113 different lineups overall (again, not including pitchers). I will compare this to the other NL teams:
ARI: 113 different lineups (most common used 9 times)
CHC: 120 (5)
CIN: 133 (4)
COL: 126 (5)
FLA: 112 (7)
HOU: 114 (5)
LAD: 131 (3)
MIL: 99 (10)
NYM: 112 (5)
PHI: 97 (10)
PIT: 128 (5)
SD: 132 (7)
SF: 130 (4)
STL: 120 (4)
WSN: 114 (6)
So believe it or not, the Braves have had one of the most stable lineups in the NL this season. And the following is the most used lineup in the league this year, seen 13 times:
1. Prado
2. Heyward
3. Jones
4. McCann
5. Uggla
6. Freeman
7. Gonzalez
8. McLouth
(that was mostly used in late April and early May)
September 20th, 2011 at 12:58 pm
Both the Braves and the Red Sox are in the midst of collapses of historic proportions, dissipating most of what looked like a very safe lead in the wild-card race just a couple weeks ago. I'm sure that a lot of people are thinking, "Well, even if both teams stumble across the finish line and somehow get into the postseason, they do not have much of a chance advancing in the playoffs".
As a counterexample, I give you - The 2000 New York Yankees:
After a win on September 13th, the Bronx Bombers record was 84-59, 9 games ahead of the Red Sox. It looked like they would cruise to the postseason with nearly 100 wins. They then proceeded to lose 15 of their last 18, including their last seven games of the year, finishing 2.5 games ahead of the Red Sox at 87-74. Doesn't look very promising, huh?
Not so fast...
- ALDS: Yankees over the A's in 5
- ALCS: Yankees over the Mariners in 6
- World Series: Yankees over the Mets in 5, Year-2000 World Series champions!
Of course, both the Braves and Red Sox need to straighten out their pitching somewhat and get a few of their hurt players healthy to have a decent chance. But the point is: don't write off a team in the postseason because of a bad regular season finish.
September 20th, 2011 at 1:04 pm
The Brewers and Mets have never won the batting title, so it looks like that will change this year.
Also, if Braun wins he will be the only 30/30 man to also win the batting title.
September 20th, 2011 at 1:04 pm
Not only did those Yankees lose so many games down the stretch, they were getting absolutely crushed. They lost 6 of those games by at least 10 runs. It was a truly baffling collapse. I have no idea what caused it, or how they managed to stop it in time for the postseason.
September 20th, 2011 at 1:12 pm
@25, JT -- I always felt as though the 2000 Yankees simply got bored in September. After blazing through the entire '98 season, then going 11-1 in the '99 postseason (with a stunningly easy sweep of Atlanta in the WS) -- and with the historic "threepeat" effort coming up in October -- I think they just sort of took a mental vacation.
September 20th, 2011 at 1:44 pm
Johnny Twisto - Hmm, that does seem high. Especially for a team with only 3 guys to play over 145 games so far (Uggla, Gonzo and Freeman), but point taken, good info.
Regardless of their inconsistency, I feel that this would be a totally different finish if JJ and Hanson were healthy...
September 20th, 2011 at 1:47 pm
The 2000 Yankees were a pretty bad team, well at least in September. But I still have to give the 06 Cardinals as the worst team to win a World Series. 87 Twins not too far behind.
September 20th, 2011 at 2:00 pm
@28/ Mike -
The 1987 Twins are the only World Series winner to score less runs than they allowed:
scored 786 runs, allowed 806 runs.
pythagorean W-L: 79-83.
actual record: 85-77.
Both the Royals (2 GB) and the A's (4 GB) had more runs scored than allowed.
September 20th, 2011 at 2:07 pm
Mo breaks record and there's not a single mentioning about him even in the recap of yesterday's games no less a specific blog about him alone (I don't believe there was a mentioning here at this site when Hoffman went over 600 saves either) last year . I guess the Yanks get no love, and because the record involves saves, a stat that's certainly not endorsed at all at this site, it's completely washed over. I love this site, but its agenda is certainly obvious!! Painfully so at times. I apologize if Mo's record was mentioned somewhere else on site -- I didn't see if it was. I didn't expect a blog just about him, but not to mention it in the recap at least is ridiculous.
September 20th, 2011 at 2:56 pm
It seems you (and everyone else) already knew about it, so a mention of it would add what, exactly?
But you're right, B-R's anti-Mo agenda has been painfully obvious for a long time.
http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/archives/7788
September 20th, 2011 at 3:07 pm
Following up on #22, I'm not going to bother writing down all the AL lineup info (if someone else would like to, go for it). But the most common AL lineups have been used 11 times. One Yankees, two Royals (hopefully this ends up aligned somewhat legibly):
1. Jeter.........................Gordon..................Gordon
2. Granderson.............Cabrera.................Cabrera
3. Teixeira....................Butler......................Butler
4. Rodriguez................Hosmer.................Hosmer
5. Cano........................Francoeur.............Francouer
6. Swisher....................Giavotella.............Moustakas
7. Posada.....................Perez....................Giavotella
8. Martin.......................Moustakas.............Perez
9. Gardner....................Escobar.................Escobar
Royals have only used 81 batting orders, amazing since a lot of those players started in the minors.
September 20th, 2011 at 3:08 pm
@30, Matt -- I hear you; but at the same time, have you really found a LACK of media coverage regarding Mariano's record save?
BTW, I congratulated him on tying the record Saturday.
http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/archives/15152
P.S. I lost my copy of the site's agenda for dominating baseball discussion. Could you send me another?
September 20th, 2011 at 3:10 pm
@17 Voomo, Yankee fan here. No, we don't tank to the Rays. Need to make the playoffs, and right now it seems the best way is to win the division. The rest is too weird.
September 20th, 2011 at 3:18 pm
Twisto, did you ever come to any conclusions about how the leverage index chaining is handled with Rivera's WAR numbers?
September 20th, 2011 at 3:23 pm
If you don't like Saves as a stat, how about Win Probability Added (WPA)?
Most games pitched since 1950 with a game WPA over +10%:
1. Mariano Rivera 430
2. Roger Clemens 411
3. Dennis Eckersley 397
4. Greg Maddux 389
5. Trevor Hofman 366
6. Goose Gossage 352
7. Lee Smith 347
8. Gaylord Perry 342
9. Nolan Ryan 339
10. Tom Glavine 335
This list includes games pitched in both the regular season and the post-season.
September 20th, 2011 at 3:26 pm
I wouldn't say there was a LACK of coverage. I would call coverage light, but ESPN (or ESPN news...one of them did) broke into carry it live or seconds after he did....and they ran things all day after he did it....and it was the lead story on all the local newschannels (when they got to the sports section).....and it was the lead, albeit very brief story, at halftime of last night's NFL game, and Mike and Mike covered it well with Stark this morning. Again, coverage was light, but it was at least acknowledged everywhere I looked and listened. Here, where anything sabermetrics is coverage ad nauseam, they can't even do due diligence ...to even display the same grace that Mo carried himself for the past 16 years....at least in part, because of an agenda. Mo the man is every bit as much of a story (especially in today's times) as the number 602, and for that it's a disgrace that this site didn't at least put something up. Really diminishes this site IMO. I've seen this for years now......makes no difference whether it was some WAR or WPA number, OPS+, traditional stat (saves, wins, RBIs), etc, the man deserved to be mentioned on this site. At least make an attempt, give a blog listing all time save leaders by same new criteria or something....to see if Rivera still ranked the best.
I did see your mentioning on Saturday John. I especially liked how you said something about saving a game 1-2-3 in a one run game. It would be nice to see who leads in that category even.
Something.
September 20th, 2011 at 3:34 pm
OK, everyone knew about it but there was also a lack of coverage. This somewhat gets at the state of baseball. Followers of the sport know what's going on, but they aren't exactly gaining new fans much these days. Again, sorry for the rant, and yes there is an agenda to push sabermetrics at times to the 100% exclusion of traditional stats, but get creative at least.
Even something like what birtelcom did would have been nice. Thanks for that...and for doing the non-traditional thing.....adding playoff numbers in. 🙂
September 20th, 2011 at 3:41 pm
Topper/35, I haven't gotten around to looking at that any further.
September 20th, 2011 at 4:16 pm
@37, Matt, I think that the all time record for saves isn't that interesting a stat. There has been a lot of very nice coverage, most of it in the category of "appreciations". Rivera is a unique player-he's almost universally admired-and the "celebration" sort of fits with his personality. The man is elegant-he's like Cary Grant on the mound-unruffled, goes about his business quietly, is almost always successful-not showy. Can't imagine him pounding his chest, shooting imaginary bullets, blah blah. One day he's going to retire and you will realize what you have lost just by his absence. He has a gift for projecting calm, authoritative competence. He has all the numbers, but transcends them.
September 20th, 2011 at 4:22 pm
WAR for best (some of) relievers all-time (* denotes HOFer):
Rivera: 56.1
Eckersley: 58.7 (~42 as a starter though)*
Goose Gossage: 40.0*
Hoyt Wilhelm: 41.3 (more of jack of all trades than a closer)*
Bruce Sutter: 25.0*
Hoffman: 30.8
John Franco: 25.8
Jeff Reardon: 20.3
Ron Perranoski: 15.0
Lindy McDaniel: 23.4
Roy Face: 17.3
Gene Garber: 16.6
Randy Myers: 16.9
Kent Tekulve: 24.8
Mike Marshall: 16.9
Dan Quisenberry: 24.3
Sparky Lyle: 19.6
Lee Smith: 30.3
Tug McGraw:20.4
Tom Henke:23.1
Rollie Fingers: 24.4 (did his best work in playoffs)*
Billy Wagner: 29.7
Jeff Montgomery: 21.1
Troy Percival:18.1
John Wetteland : 20.8
Joe Nathan: 22.1
Jonathan Papelbon: 17.1
Francisco Rodríguez: 22.5
I'd vote Mo, Hoffman, and give Smith and Quisenberry a look. I'd very likely vote no for Quiz given injury shortened career (he was perhaps one of the best ever though for a 6 year peak)..... Lee Smith I wouldn't vote for, and Wagner, despite his efficiency, he seems rather unspectacular too. Interesting list nonetheless. I know WAR is NOT a good measure for relief pitchers, but Mo's number is a great indicator of just how much better he's been than all the rest. in fact, I'd vote Quiz over Smith and Wagner, but Quiz needed another 2 dominating seasons to get a better look IMO.
September 20th, 2011 at 4:45 pm
Another interesting way to look at Mariano's numbers is to compare him to Pedro Martinez. Pedro was a fine pitcher before 1997 and after 2003, but the transcendant core of his career were the seven seasons from 1997 through 2003, one of the greatest sequences of seven years of pitching in baseball history. Including regular- and post-season appearances over these seven years, Pedro pitched 1,460 innings with an ERA of 2.23. Truly awesome. To compare, over Mariano's full career to date, including regular and post-season games, he has pitched 1,349 IP with an ERA of 2.06. By the time Mariano is finally done, it is likely that these basic career numbers will be even more similar to those accumulated by Pedro over his seven-year prime.
Now of course there are apples to oranges aspects to comparing a starter's numbers to a reliever's, and part of the astounding nature of Pedro's performance over 1997-2003 is that it came during one of the highest run-scoring periods in MLB annals. But Mariano was pitching during this period, too. Despite the entirely appropriate distinctions one must make between Pedro's 1997-2003 stats and Mariano's career stats, it is still, I think, worth noting how close these two sets of numbers come out.
September 20th, 2011 at 4:52 pm
Matt: Incorporating your WAR observation with mine about Mariano and Pedro, it might also be worth adding that Pedro's WAR over his seven year peak was 51 (his WAR over the other 11 seasons of his career was 24.9).
September 20th, 2011 at 4:53 pm
And just think how many more saves Rivera had than Martinez!
September 20th, 2011 at 10:36 pm
@ 44 - that would be 599 more saves (Pedro had 3 early in his career).
September 20th, 2011 at 11:34 pm
@37, Matt -- I wish I could produce the leaders in 1-run saves. But the Play Index can't search according to the score, not exactly.
It can search according to the Adjusted Leverage Index (aLI), which can give us a decent approximation of the size of the lead (and is probably a better measure than the lead, anyway). Unfortunately, I don't know enough about aLI to produce a meaningful analysis of Rivera along those lines.
I'm not sure it would really show anything unique about Rivera, anyway. After all, he gets a lot of saves every year for a good offensive club; he's going to have his share of 3-run saves.
To be clear, I'm a huge Mo fan, and have written passionately here and there about his greatness. I just don't think I can make any fresh points about his body of work that are going to move anyone who isn't already sold.
But perhaps a little something about postseason saves....
(1) In the past 25 years (roughly the era of the 1-inning closer):
Proportion of saves that were 4 outs or more:
-- Mariano, 74% (31 of 42)
-- All others, 29% (78 of 267)
Proportion of saves that were at least 2 innings:
-- Mariano, 33% (14 of 42)
-- All others, 9% (25 of 267)
(2) Mariano has been charged with 5 blown saves in the postseason:
-- 4 of 5 were with a 1-run lead.
-- 4 of 5 happened in the 8th inning -- i.e., taller task for Mo, and more time for the Yanks to recover.
-- Only once did he allow the go-ahead run.
-- In 2 of the 5, he allowed no runs of his own, only inherited runner(s).
-- -- One of those was game 5 of the 2005 ALCS, when he entered with a 1-run lead, men on the corners and no outs (after Tom Gordon failed to retire any of his 3 batters). Mo retired 3 straight, but Dave Roberts scored on a sac fly, hanging Mo with the "blown save" -- even though the Win Probability Added credits him with substantially improving the Yanks' chance of winning, measured from the moment he entered that inning. Then he pitched a scoreless 9th. In fact, of the 14 pitchers for both sides in that game, only Tim Wakefield (3 scoreless for the win) had a higher WPA than Mo's .307. And by the way, just 5% of all postseason saves in the last 25 years had a higher WPA than the .307 Mo earned in a blown save.
Rivera has pitched in 94 postseason games ... and lost one.
He's come into 14 tie games ... and never gave up a run, earning 7 wins (5 of those with 2+ IP). To me, this is actually the most impressive aspect of his postseason performance.
Finally, let's consider postseason relief appearances with an Adjusted Leverage Index of at least 2 in the last 25 years:
-- The 10 other relievers with at least 10 IP in such high-leverage situations have an average ERA of 3.38.
-- Mo's ERA in 25 such games is 0.41 -- 2 ER in 44.1 IP.
He's the greatest closer ever. Someone might break his career saves mark; but I can't imagine anyone having a better body of postseason work, even in half as many games.
September 21st, 2011 at 12:07 am
One more angle on the Meaning of Mariano:
He inherited the closer role from John Wetteland in 1997. For the next 14 years, the Yankees -- a team with championship ambitions every single year -- never once had to think about who would close for them, except for choosing a fill-in for a couple of months when Mo was hurt (but never as much as half a season).
Now, I happen to believe that the closer role is quite overrated. I think many teams spend too much emotional energy and way too much money chasing a tiny advantage, because, given the dominant usage pattern, there just isn't that much difference in win value between an average closer and a good one.
But the point is, teams (and players) believe the closer plays a huge role in the team's success; they do spend that energy and money trying to nail down the closer role. They sign free-agent closers to big deals, rarely getting their money's worth. During a season, when the closer struggles, they often go through a difficult decision process on whether to make a change.
But not the Yankees. Even when Mariano has a bad week or two, they never worry.
Once, when Casey Stengel was asked about his success as Yankees manager, he said, "I never play a game without my man," meaning Yogi Berra -- often described as the most all-around winning ballplayer ever.
Mariano is like that for the modern Yankees. And that sense of security is a significant value added, over and above his on-field contributions.
September 21st, 2011 at 12:28 am
Good posts JA.
Too bad Foreman Forman will have to fine you for skewing the B-R agenda.
September 21st, 2011 at 1:29 am
John Autin-
As we admire and reflect on what Mariano Rivera has done, how can
you still believe that the closer role is quite overrated?
I would submit that his accomplishments proove the opposite.
He has been the Yankee MVP for fifteen years.
September 21st, 2011 at 9:20 am
Great posts JA!!! Let me know how you get fined so I can help with covering the cost....I might even be able to cover all of it if reasonable. 🙂
I agree the closer role is somewhat overrated though. There won't be another like Mo. Yankee fans have been spoiled.
September 21st, 2011 at 9:20 am
Great posts JA!!! Let me know how much you get fined so I can help with covering the cost....I might even be able to cover all of it if reasonable. 🙂
I agree the closer role is somewhat overrated though. There won't be another like Mo. Yankee fans have been spoiled.
September 21st, 2011 at 10:15 am
@49, Jason -- I will concede that "closer" is a supremely important role, as long as the closer is Mariano Rivera.
In the same vein, the role of "big fat guy who hits home runs" is crucial, as long as the BFG is Babe Ruth circa 1932.
September 21st, 2011 at 11:08 am
John-BFG, very funny. Thanks for the laugh.
As a Yankee fan I am prejudiced, but I just feel that Mo's success
proves that the closer's role is not overrated.
You know John, besides a BFG, how about Casey Stengel's man, an
odd looking catcher?
One of those sure helps a franchise pile on the championships too.
September 21st, 2011 at 1:50 pm
On the importance of the closer role. Those of us who think it is overrated are specifically objecting to prioritizing the use of the best reliever for save situations. Looking only at the start of the 9th inning, (top or bottom). The most important situations are, in this order; up by 1, tied, up by 2, up by 3. (By leverage Index.) A manager who saves his closer for 2 or 3 run save situations, rather than use him in tied games, is hurting his team's chances to win ballgames. This is aside from issues of how many innings/games he should pitch and whether he should come in early in high leverage situations.
September 21st, 2011 at 6:13 pm
One more way of describing Mariano's contribution more "sabermetrically" than with saves totals: Over his regular season career, batters facing Mariano have averaged a .552 OPS. On average, AL batters overall in ninth innings against all pitchers have had an OPS of.657 in 2011, .684 in 2010, .700 in 2009 and (as an example of one of those very high run scoring years from the late-1990s/early 2000s period) .738 in 2000. Among the top closers (I looked at pitchers who have accumulated at least 100 career saves), the median OPS against has been in the mid .660s (John Franco, Jeff Reardon, etc.). To drop hitter OPS that dramatically as compared to an average 9th inning hitter or compared to what the median good closer accomplishes is quite extraordinary and to do it for as long as Mariano has done it is almost unbelievable. Such a dramatic reduction in ninth inning batter OPS is also, I think, objectively quite valuable in terms of improving a team's chances of winning games. Oh, and by the way, the average OPS of hitters facing Mariano in the post-season has been .442, a number that is truly absurd, especially considering Mariano has faced 523 post-season batters -- enough of a sample of PAs that it would be more than sufficient over a regualr season to qualify a hitter for a full season batting average championship.
September 21st, 2011 at 6:28 pm
As we admire and reflect on what Mariano Rivera has done, how can
you still believe that the closer role is quite overrated? I would submit that his accomplishments proove the opposite.
How? How does performing an allegedly overrated role well prove the role is not overrated?
He has been the Yankee MVP for fifteen years.
What about that guy over his right shoulder?
September 21st, 2011 at 6:29 pm
the average OPS of hitters facing Mariano in the post-season has been .442, a number that is truly absurd, especially considering Mariano has faced 523 post-season batters
Who are presumably better than average batters (since they represent playoff teams).
September 21st, 2011 at 10:45 pm
@56
We will never see another postseason run that equals the Yankees from 96-01.
Truth is that Mo made a great pitch to Luis Gonzales in game 7 of 01.
With a little luck, the Yankees would have won 5 in 6 years.
When one considers that they had to win 3 series each year, it is an amazing accomplishment.
As for my comments about the closer's role not being overrated, let me
put it this way...
Do you think the Braves of the 90's would think a closers role is overrated?
How many WS would the Braves have won with Mo as their closer?
Finally, Jeter is awesome. But every Yankee fan knows that Mariano has
been the difference between the Yankees and every other team the last 16 years.
I have no doubt that the Yankees could have won with other shortstops.
How many WS do the Yankees have from 96-00 if Mark Wholers was their
closer?
Consider that and tell me again how the closer role is overrated.
Also in regards to KDS, if you are saying that the closer role is
overrated due to how the use of the closer has evolved, I couldn't
disagree more.
Does anybody think Mariano would still be able to even throw a baseball if
he was pitching 120 innings a season instead of 70 all these seasons.
September 22nd, 2011 at 12:05 am
But every Yankee fan knows that Mariano has
been the difference between the Yankees and every other team the last 16 years.
I am a Yankee fan, and I don't know that. It sounds absurd on its face. Rivera is the difference between the Yankees and the 50-win Astros? Huh?
I have no doubt that the Yankees could have won with other shortstops.
I'm sure they could have won with other shortstops. Which shortstops? Won how many games?
How many WS do the Yankees have from 96-00 if Mark Wholers was their
closer?
How many WS do the Yankees get to if Rafael Belliard was their SS?
Rivera is completely useless if the Yankees don't get a lead in the first place. Michael the Kay bloviated when Rivera got save 600 that he's been "a game changer." That's ridiculous. If he does his job, the game doesn't change at all. He can't take the Yankees from losing to winning. He's been awesome, I love watching him, and in the postseason he's been phenomenal. He's also pitched ~70 IP a season, mostly with the lead already in hand, and there is no way he's been as valuable to the team as Derek Jeter.
September 30th, 2011 at 10:25 am
Subway Tile Bathroom...
[...]Recapping relevant games of Monday, 9/19/2011 » Baseball-Reference Blog » Blog Archive[...]...