Is David Ortiz finished?
Posted by Andy on May 1, 2009
There has been much speculation in New England that David Ortiz's career as a power hitter is over. Aside from the stats, bystanders have claimed that his bat speed is dramatically reduced and that his physique looks even worse than usual. But today I heard Jerry Remy dispute those claims and say that Ortiz is just pressing. Right now, Remy claims, Ortiz is concentrating on hitting to the opposite field and hoping that his pull power returns on its own.
I don't have enough information to judge those things for myself, but let's look at the numbers. Here are his last 23 games through Tuesday night (dating back to last season):
David Ortiz Batting Gamelogs for Career Games 1299 to 1321
| Date | Tm | G | GS | Rslt | PA | AB | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | BB | IBB | SO | HBP | SH | SF | ROE | GDP | SB | CS | BA | OBP | SLG | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 23, 2008 to Apr 28, 2009 | BOS | 23 | 23 | 15-8 | 104 | 92 | 12 | 22 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 13 | 7 | 0 | 23 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | .239 | .288 | .359 | .647 |
That's 22 hits in 23 games, including no homers and just 10 extra-base hits for a .647 OPS. All players go through slumps, but this one is pretty bad.
Interestingly, this is not the longest streak in Ortiz's career without a homer. Here they are:
StreakStart Streak End Games AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SO BB SB CS BA OBP SLG OPS Teams +-----------+-----------+-----+------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------+ 1998-09-12 2000-06-07 52 143 10 34 10 0 0 19 34 14 1 0 .238 .304 .308 .612 MIN 2002-04-18 2002-07-04 42 127 10 31 11 0 0 19 20 12 0 0 .244 .299 .331 .630 MIN 2000-07-08 2000-08-16 34 120 20 40 12 0 0 19 22 16 0 0 .333 .403 .433 .836 MIN 1998-07-18 1998-08-23 29 100 14 19 5 0 0 10 25 16 1 0 .190 .308 .240 .548 MIN 2008-09-23 2009-04-28 23 92 12 22 9 1 0 13 23 7 0 1 .239 .288 .359 .647 BOS
The good news is that Ortiz has a long way to go before his current streak (5th on the list) reaches to top. The bad news is that the four longer streaks all came when he was still with the Twins, before he became the power hitter he was at his height with the Red Sox.
What surprises me is the degree to which Ortiz has dropped off. All players age and all players eventually retire. But few drop off so suddenly. I'm personally inclined to think that he still has some sort of injury that's limiting his performance.
May 1st, 2009 at 8:40 am
Could be he's off the juice.
May 1st, 2009 at 11:11 am
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May 1st, 2009 at 8:41 pm
The guy has "Old Player Skills". They are always done early.
May 3rd, 2009 at 12:38 pm
Manny was his 'roids. look at what Ethier's done so far batting behind Manny
May 4th, 2009 at 10:37 am
Ollie1000: You're right on Manny's effect on Ortiz's stats, since Manny almost always batted behind Ortiz (at least, since 2004). But that does not translate to Manny's effect on Ethier, since Manny almost always bats in front of Ethier. Ethier is protecting Manny - and giving Manny better pitches to hit - not vice-versa.
May 4th, 2009 at 10:44 am
Ortiz has never been mentioned in conjunction with PEDs, and remember that he came out in spring training and said that he thought players that tested positive in the past (meaning A-rod) should be suspended for a year. He's probably pretty confident he never had (nor will ever have) a positive test by making that statement. He's probably not using. Also, reduced bat speed has not generally been linked to PED use. If Ortiz had grown a lot of new muscles, that might reduce his bat speed and also have been due to steroids, but Ortiz has always been a very large, muscular guy since he's been with Boston.
All this is to say--I doubt that Ortiz is a steroid user.
May 5th, 2009 at 3:26 pm
tomepp, You're right, I wasn't paying attention. I have Ethier on one of my fantasy teams, and without knowing a lot about him assumed it was the Manny affect. Actually, as I look at his career numbers, he's maybe playing a little better than would be expected from someone who's had a few good first years in the league... the thing about my fantasy team is, I can barely find room to play him as I have Markakis, Carlos Lee, and Sizemore in the outfield and Texieria (back) at Util and wasn't really paying much attention to him but noticed the numbers adding up...
May 6th, 2009 at 8:48 am
Ollie1000: Nice outfield! I have Markakis on my fantasy league team, too, though ours works a bit different than most (it uses complex formulas to convert everything - including fielding stats - into wins and losses). On my team, Nick is joined by Elijah Dukes, Curtis Granderson, and Josh Hamilton (when not DLed). My fifth OF was Lastings Milledge until he got demoted. Right now I'm just praying that Dukes, Grandy, and Marky stay healthy - or a promising prospect gets called up soon!