Edgar Martinez 158
Rafael Palmeiro 137
Chili Davis 146
Don Baylor 139
Jose Canseco 109*
Andre Thornton 94
Al Oliver 150
Hal McRae 110
Frank Thomas 146
Julio Franco 136

28 Responses to “Should the Red Sox pick up their option on David Ortiz?”

1. Johnny Twisto Says:
   November 4th, 2010 at 9:49 am

   If there's an option, there's probably a buy-out. If that's, say, $3M, then the cost of bringing him back should really be assessed at $9M.

   But I'm too lazy to check these details.

2. Andy Says:
   November 4th, 2010 at 9:53 am

   Actually, there is no buyout (unusually) and the salary is $12.5 million, not $12 million as I wrote.

   That makes it pretty clear that declining is the right choice (in my opinion at least.)

3. Barry Says:
   November 4th, 2010 at 10:05 am

   As a Red Sox fan, I'm not sure I *completely* disagree with your conclusion. However, I do want to point out a few flaws in your reasoning when coming to that conclusion. First is your contention that he had a "terrible" month in August (won't disagree with that regarding April). He had just 5 HR in August, however if you average out 5 HR/month over a season (or even 27 games, which is 16.7% of the season) you get (wait for it) - a 30 HR season, not far below his actual total of 32. I won't even discuss the RBI total since those are well-covered elsewhere as a fairly meaningless stat. Second, despite his performance at his peak in "late and close" situations, this is also a fairly random metric and has been covered very well elsewhere as really adding no value; like BABIP it is something that will go up and down from year to year and to cite it is a justification for the Sox to sign him (or not) is also fairly meaningless.
   As a Sox fan, the thought of seeing Ortiz in another uniform is fairly unsavory. I would like to see them re-sign him, for multiple years, at a yearly amount that is more in line with expectations over the next few years.

4. Andy Says:
   November 4th, 2010 at 10:09 am

   I don't think close and late is nearly as random as BABiP. I think Ortiz did exceptionally well in this area in his earlier peak years and has done poorly in the last few years when forced to face the more difficult situational pitchers (LOOGYs and closers, etc) in those situations. He's just not the hitter he used to be.

   As for his low August 2010 RBI total, I wish I could easily get the breakdown on, for example, his RISP, in that month. Eight is a really small number. 15 would be a bad RBI month, but its fluctuation down from 20 or 25 in a month could be down just to opportunity and teammate performance. But all the way down to 8? Seems quite likely to have at least a component of poor production from Ortiz himself.

5. trokenmatt Says:
   November 4th, 2010 at 10:13 am

   I'm not sure the question can be answered without knowing what the other options are for his spot in the lineup. That is, who else can the Red Sox plug into their DH slot that can give them 3 WAR, and how much will that player cost?

6. Jacob Says:
   November 4th, 2010 at 10:22 am

   I'd pick up the option & I would be surprised if the Red Sox declined. He can still hit & the fans love him. It seems like a good PR move & baseball move. Besides, it's only 1 year.

7. BSK Says:
   November 4th, 2010 at 10:25 am

   I think it largely depends on what the Sox' other options are. Assuming their roster is healthy, Ortiz shouldn't necessarily be in the heart of the order, though he may bat there regardless. But getting his numbers out of the teams 3rd or 4th best offensive player is nothing to sneeze at. Paying $12 mil for that is another issue. Do the Red Sox have better options for that $12 mil? I don't know. It seems like a fairly thin crop for free agents, with a couple of elite guys but not sure what else is out there.

   If the Sox can afford Ortiz and accomplish their other off-season priorities (re-sign Beltre, big push for Crawford, sure up the rotation and bullpen), great. If keeping him at $12 mil precludes some of those more pressing needs, I think they're better served to not pick up the option.

   As wise as the Red Sox are, I still think they've made some foolish decisions with money. They've penny pinched on certain players they would have been better served going big on and went big on some real busts (paging Mr. Lackey). I'm curious to see what they do here.

8. kenh Says:
   November 4th, 2010 at 10:34 am

   I think they should. Its not the steroid era anymore where you can expect your DH to hit 45 HR and 150 RBI. And he was clearly the most productive at that position. Good selling points for his contract.

9. LeeR Says:
   November 4th, 2010 at 10:45 am

   I would pick it up for one year, but the problem is that he is already bellyaching that he wants multi-year and he would be upset or insulted by anything less than that. If that is his mind-set, then I say let him go.

10. BSK Says:
    November 4th, 2010 at 11:21 am

    LeeR-

    That is a big problem for me, and seems disingenous on Ortiz's behalf. Players negotiate these option years into their contract and than bitch and moan when they are picked up. He's not being offered a one-year deal; the Sox are (potentially) following through on the original provisions of the contract. If playing for $12 mil a year at age 35 with no years beyond that guaranteed was unacceptable for him, he never should have agreed in the first place.

11. BSK Says:
    November 4th, 2010 at 11:22 am

    And, generally speaking, I'm not pro-owner or anti-player. I just think that the players, especially in the MLB with guaranteed contracts, should be expected to uphold their end of the bargain. I would be just as bothered if a team was somehow trying to subvert or otherwise complain about an existing contract they willingly entered into.

12. Griffin Says:
    November 4th, 2010 at 11:33 am

    I CANT BELEIVE THAT THEY MIGHT BE GETTIN RID OF BIG PAPI!!!!!!!!!!! R THEY INSANE!?!?!?!?!?!?!? U R MAKING AN ELEVEN YEAR OLD BOY VERY SAD + ANGRY!!!!!! 🙁 :>/

13. Chuck Says:
    November 4th, 2010 at 12:10 pm

    Decline.

    There's no reason to pay that much money for a guy who can't do anything other than hit four times a game.

    The Sox have other, more pressing needs than replacing a DH.

    Free up the cash, fill your holes (OF, Martinez, Beltre, Dice-K) and see what you have left over money wise come January.

    Either way, I wouldn't pay him a dime more than $7 million.

14. Chuck Says:
    November 4th, 2010 at 1:00 pm

    The Sox picked up his option.

15. John DiFool Says:
    November 4th, 2010 at 1:21 pm

    His ability to hit lefties has declined precipitously-the opposition invariably has a LOOGY sharpening his blade in the pen before Papi is due up, in he comes, Papi K's or flies out weakly somewhere, runners stranded. Why he can't also hit the hard-throwing righty closers which predominate is less clear (bat speed?)-then again as someone said these are the best relief pitchers in the game.

16. John DiFool Says:
    November 4th, 2010 at 1:24 pm

    [checking] I see that he only had 33 ABs against left-handed relievers, which seems much lower than I would have guessed-he did abysmally against them of course, 3 hits in those 33 ABs, one homer.

17. John DiFool Says:
    November 4th, 2010 at 1:25 pm

    Nevermind, I'm not allowed to read "vs. LHstarter/vs. LHP" rows like that.

18. Mike Says:
    November 4th, 2010 at 1:40 pm

    That was the season that Palmeiro won the gold glove playing only 28 games at 1B and 135 games at DH, officially making the gold glove a completely irrelevant award.

19. JayT Says:
    November 4th, 2010 at 4:13 pm

    I think that it was a decent idea to bring Ortiz back, even though it cost $12.5 million. The problem with declining and then trying to sign a new contract, is that the new contract would probably have been less per year, but more overall, and while his production is like next year is a cause for concern, two and three years from now is a much bigger problem.

    i think the Sox looked at it from a point of view of, pay $12.5 million for a decent year at DH rather then pay $16 million for a decent year and a total loss of a year, that will also lead to infighting. At this point in his career I think Big Papi has something to give, but I would never give him more then a year at a time.

20. Basmati Says:
    November 4th, 2010 at 6:22 pm

    I think people have made some good arguments as to why the Red Sox should pick up the option and of course we now know they have. However I think I would have declined. Looking at Ortiz's splits by almost every measure he is in decline and that's at age 34:

    Strikeout and GIDP rates are up.
    Walk and homer rates are down.
    Baserunners driven in are down, as are productive outs, balls in play, baserunners advancing.

    I think this is just part of a significant downward trend over 3 years, even though it looks like Ortiz bounced back a bit from his 2009 performance.

    Of course last year I said the Angels were right not to resign Vlad Guerrero and he ended up having something of a bounceback with the Rangers (although after a good start his numbers feel away and were still somewhat below his career average).

    I predict Ortiz will have at best an OPS+ of about 110-115 and I'm pretty sure they could get that kind of production for <$12.5m, or something in that region plus an upgrade elsewhere.

21. Tim L Says:
    November 4th, 2010 at 10:13 pm

    I think this is an argument for finding out if there is value in consistency.

    Let's say you have two players who finish with exactly the same #s.

    Player A was horrendous in April, June and August, but an MVP candidate in May, July and September.
    Player B was consistently solid all season, but never spectacular.

    Is one player more valuable than the other?

22. John Autin Says:
    November 4th, 2010 at 10:22 pm

    A theory re: Ortiz's struggles vs. LHPs over the past 3 years:
    It partly reflects a downturn in his overall self-confidence that is linked to a change in attitude towards him on the part of Red Sox fans.

    -- Ortiz came to Boston in 2003 and had a surprising breakout year: 31 HRs (previous high was 20), 101 RBI, .961 OPS and 144 OPS+. However, he still didn't hit lefties at all (.216 BA, .260 OBP, 4 HRs), continuing the pattern he had established in Minnesota.

    -- In '04, he had an even bigger year (same OPS+ but more playing time), but still had a very large platoon difference -- BA .250/.326, with an OPS nearly 300 points higher against RHPs. But this was the year that the Legend of Big Papi began to take shape, as he had many game-turning hits during the year and in the postseason, culminating in the club's first championship in 86 years.

    -- Suddenly, after 2004, Big Papi was a hero to virtually every BoSox fan. This well-earned adulation must have sent his self-confidence through the roof, which helped him post 3 monster seasons in a row, averaging 45 HRs, 134 RBI and a 163 OPS+, capped by yet another big postseason in '07 and another WS title.

    -- And here is the crux of my theory: Those 3 years -- 2005-07 -- are the only time that Ortiz really hit LHPs well, with a combined BA near .300 and OPS well over .900.

    -- In 2008, he had a poor April, and after a strong May, he got hurt, missing about 2 months. When he came back, he did not hit up to his previous standard; and then, for the first time since becoming a legend, he had a poor postseason, hitting .154 as the Red Sox fell to Tampa in the ALCS.

    -- Again in 2009 and 2010, Ortiz started the year very slowly, and gradually he no longer got the benefit of the doubt from some fans; they began openly wondering if he was "done." And starting in 2008 and continuing through the last 2 years, Ortiz reverted to his previous struggles against lefty pitching.

    I am not saying that this emotional feedback loop completely accounts for the ups and downs in his performance vs. LHPs. But I think it was a factor. I think Ortiz naturally struggles to hit lefties, as many big LH power hitters do. I think he was quite conscious of this fact in his pre-legend years, possibly to the point where it interfered with his ability to actually improve in that area. I think the blanket of love he received from Sox fans in 2004-07 lifted his confidence to a level where, for a time, he escaped from all self-doubt. But when the love diminished, and when he couldn't come up with any heroics in the '08 postseason, the self-doubt crept back in.

    I don't normally do armchair analysis of ballplayers' psyches, but this one just makes sense to me.

23. Andy Says:
    November 5th, 2010 at 4:34 am

    Steroids makes more sense to me.

24. John Autin Says:
    November 5th, 2010 at 10:41 am

    @23 -- It's unclear whether (a) you are responding to my theory @22, (b) your tone is serious or flippant, and (c) you have actually read and thought about my post. But I'll reply taking your words at face value.

    If we take Ortiz's brilliant 2005-07 seasons as a baseline, his average platoon OPS from 2008-10 is:
    -- vs. RHP, 85% of that baseline;
    -- vs. LHP, 75% of that baseline.

    If Ortiz's decline were entirely due to discontinuing PED use, why would the platoon components decline at such different rates?

    In particular, his 2010 platoon splits alone represent:
    -- vs. RHP, 96% of the baseline;
    -- vs. LHP, 66% of the baseline.

    Presuming that Ortiz's 2010 performance was "clean" while his 2005-07 was "enhanced," it doesn't make sense to me that he would hit nearly as well vs. RHPs while collapsing vs. LHPs.

25. Andy Says:
    November 5th, 2010 at 10:45 am

    Because hitting lefties is harder for most lefty hitters. It's actually quite straightforward.

    That being said, I do think that the psychology of the game is often overlooked, especially by us stat-type people who are readers of this blog. I think you did a really good analysis in #22 although I do tend to think that PEDs are a bigger factor than what you proposed.

26. MikeD Says:
    November 5th, 2010 at 12:23 pm

    The Red Sox can afford $12.5 million, it's only for one year, he's very popular with the fans, and they have a need. Vlad is not a proper comparison, especially considering Vlad had a very mediocre second half. They certainly could have not picked up the option and then negotiated with him for a potentially lower price, but if they were committed to him being on the team, cutting him would have created issues.

27. Kelly Says:
    November 5th, 2010 at 1:05 pm

    They picked it up, so this is really a moot post, but I did agree with the decision. If you take out his 8/56 - .534 OPS - start, he had a fine season. More importantly, who are you going to replace his LH power with in 2011 without spending more money (i.e., Dunn or Fielder) or putting too much weight on a rookie (i.e. Rizzo). Furthermore, he is a popular player with fans, who will be motivated to work harder on conditioning this preseason (free agent year) and perhaps avoid another slow April.

    If the BoSox were planning to go after Dunn to win, then I could see letting Ortiz go, but unless that is the case, then I don't see any downside to extending Papi for a year and giving Rizzo one more year to see professional pitching, work on his patience, and try to cut down on the K's.

28. Kirk Says:
    November 5th, 2010 at 2:33 pm

    When considering the $12 million, you have to factor-in not only on-field production, but also fans he brings in to the ballpark, telecasts, jerseys and posters sold, etc. He's clearly worth $12 million as a total package.