Random Recap: On the brink of the break
Posted by John Autin on July 11, 2011
-- Yankees (CC Sabathia) 1, Rays (James Shields) 0: The first regulation game since 2002 in which both pitchers went the distance and did not allow an earned run.
- Like the last time, the run in this game was built on not one but two errors, wild throws by B.J. Upton (trying to double up Robinson Cano after a flyout) and Shields himself (trying to pick Cano off 3rd base).
- It was the 2nd 1-0, double-CG game this year.
- First double-CG with each pitcher allowing 4 hits or less since July 8, 2010.
- First double-CG since 2005 with each pitcher allowing no more than 5 baserunners.
- Sabathia's first shutout in 77 starts (including postseason) since May 8, 2009.
-- Twins 4, White Sox 3: Minnesota has won 8 of 11; the Sox have lost 6 of 8 since reaching .500 on July 2.
- Remember when Jake Peavy threw a 3-hit shutout in his 2nd game of the year? In 8 games since then, he has a 6.35 ERA. His ERA is 5.27 this year, 4.84 for 2010-11 combined. Peavy is owed $17 million next year and a $4 million buyout in 2013.
- Adam Dunn (0-3) is batting .160. He's 3 for his last 45, 5 for his last 64. He has 33 games with a hit, and 45 without.
-- Pirates 9, Cubs 1: Pittsburgh (47-43, 1 game out of 1st place) is .500 or better in virtually every split -- home and away, 1-run games and blowouts, regulation and extra-innings, even interleague play.
- The Cubs have not had a 3-game win streak this year.
- I'm thrilled for the Pirates and their fans, but I have to mention that they're 13-5 against the Cubs and Astros, the two teams with the worst records in baseball who just happen to be division mates of the Bucs.
-- Rangers 2, A's 0: The 10th shutout win for Texas this year, tied with Detroit for the AL lead. They're on pace to tie the Rangers/Senators II franchise high of 17 shutouts, set in 1977.
- The A's were shut out for the 11th time this year, tops in the AL. They suffered only 7 shutouts all of last year. They are on pace for 19 shutout losses; that would be the most in the AL since 1981 (20 by Toronto).
-- Dodgers 4, Padres 1: Rob Johnson's HR in the 3rd ended LA's 3-game shutout streak (matching the longest since 1995), but Andre Ethier answered twice (his first HRs in 15 games) and the Dodgers got their 4th straight win -- their first 4-game win streak this year.
- Rob Johnson's career .196 BA is the 2nd lowest of any active non-pitcher with at least 500 PAs.
- The Padres were held to 1 run or less for the 30th time, tops in the majors; the Dodgers are 2nd with 26.
-- Blue Jays 7, Cleveland 1: Toronto knocked Cleveland out of 1st place. Jose Bautista (2-4, double, 2 RBI) goes into the break 2nd in the league in BA and 1st in OBP, SLG, OPS and OPS+, Wins Above Replacement (offensive and total), Times On Base, and one other stat that escapes me....
- Oh, right: Bautista's 31 HRs this season give him 60 in Toronto's last 161 games (153 games played by Bautista).
- Cleveland's Joe Smith (oddly, the only Joseph Smith ever to play in the majors) threw another scoreless inning. He has not allowed a run in his last 17 IP, and his 23.2 straight IP without an earned run is the longest such streak by a reliever this year. Jonny Venters has the longest scoreless IP streak by a reliever this year, with 22.
-- Boston sent the Orioles into the break on a 7-game skid, in which they've allowed 62 runs.
- The O's and Cubs are the only teams with no sub-4 ERAs in their rotation (min. 10 starts).
- Pitching in long relief, Jeremy Guthrie went 3.1 IP and allowed 1 run -- and picked up his MLB-high 12th loss, naturally. Guthrie is 3-12, 4.18; Detroit's Max Scherzer is 10-4, 4.69.
-- Angels 4, Mariners 2: The Halos have won 8 of 9 and are 20-7 since June 5; they go into the break 1 game behind Texas at 50-42.
- A 5-for-31 day dropped Seattle's team batting average to .224. Ichiro Suzuki's .270 BA is the highest of any Mariner with at least 80 PAs, and Justin Smoak (.229 BA but 113 OPS+) is the only player with at least 80 PAs and an OPS+ over 96.
-- And finally, the Justin Verlander Report:
- He allowed 1 run (unearned) in 7.2 IP Sunday in KC (9 Ks, no walks), thus matching the longest streaks since 1992 of (a) 7+ IP and 1 run or less, and (b) 7+ IP, 2 runs or less, at 7 and 9 games, respectively. (See prior post re: streaks.)
- He lowered his ERA to 2.15. Only 2 qualifying Tigers have had a sub-3 ERA in the DH era: Mark Fidrych (2.34 in 1976) and Jeff Robinson (2.98 in '88).
- He lowered his WHIP to 0.87. The all-time Tigers record is 0.91 by Denny McLain in 1968; no other qualifying Tiger has ever had a WHIP below 1. His 6.02 H/9 would also be a Tigers record.
- He got his 12th win in Detroit's 92nd game, matching the high for a Tiger since 1974. Jack Morris did it 3 times, and 4 others did it once.
- The Tigers were shut out in two of his four losses this year; in those games, Verlander allowed 2 runs in a CG, and 1 run in 7.2 IP. All four of his losses were quality starts; he has a QS in 19 of 20 outings this year.
- The win puts the Tigers in 1st place at the All-Star break.
I know I'm gushing, but hey -- I'm a Tigers fan and I haven't seen anything like this since Mickey Lolich ... and I was only 8 years old then, and the DH hadn't been invented. Fidrych was great, but he couldn't last; and while his results were dominant, he didn't dominate. Verlander does, and I'm diggin' it.
July 11th, 2011 at 1:51 am
That's ridiculous that only 2 Tigers pitchers have had sub-3 ERA since 1973. How many starting pitchers have done that since then?
July 11th, 2011 at 1:52 am
Too late for me to answer your question, Dark Leviathan ... but I love your screen name!
July 11th, 2011 at 1:59 am
Thanks, but you sadly didn't have any tidbits about my team, the Phillies. Guess there wasn't anything especially memorable, although they did reach their season high in runs and hits.
July 11th, 2011 at 2:42 am
verlander: 1st half AL CYA, easy
July 11th, 2011 at 3:17 am
John, while you reference the Pirates record against the Cubs and Astros, don't forget that they are 6-3 against the AL East. Plus, 2-1 against the Phillies, Cardinals and your Tigers! The Cubs and Astros record is there, but it's not a legit argument when they've beaten good teams all year.
July 11th, 2011 at 3:39 am
I agree with @5, can't discredit the Pirates just because they play in a weak division. They have perfomed well against great teams.
And lets face it, this isn't exactly saying the Pirates are the best team ever. The Pirates are like that friend of yours whos been around forever and had some great days and then started drinking and ruined his life, and now hes slowly turning it around.
July 11th, 2011 at 3:45 am
@4 I'd say Weaver gives him a pretty good run for his money.
July 11th, 2011 at 8:41 am
@3
Dark, your Phillies get lots of love in JA's recaps.
JA, you aren't overdoing it with respect to Justin Verlander. He is having an incredible season and it easy not to appeciate performances like this as they are happening.
At first thought, I wonder why Verlander's ERA+ is so "low" at 167, given how totally dominant he has been this year. His ERA+ does not stand out at all compared to the PED-era seasons. And then I realize that I am still thinking with a "normal-offense" baseball mind, not a 2011 baseball mind.
A quick glance at ML run scoring over the past few years shows 2007 4.80 RPG, 2008 4.65 RPG, 2009 4.61 RPG, 2010 4.38 RPG and finally 2011 with 4.19.
So I'm of two minds in evaluating Verlander's 2011 season. On the one hand, he has been from another planet with his dominance and consistency this year but on the other, offense has fallen off a cliff in the past few years and it is hard to appreciate how much.
Verlander's ERA+ of 167 shows well the average pitcher is doing this year.
July 11th, 2011 at 9:18 am
Yes, the Bucs have beaten up on the Cubs and Astros...but that's how you get into contention, by beating the teams you're supposed to beat. The Cards won their share of division titles by beating the Pirates severly around the head and shoulders. You play the teams on the schedule; I don't see how beating bad teams discounts what the Pirates have done at all.
July 11th, 2011 at 10:14 am
Hard to believe about the Tiger pitchers.
Dan Petry did have a 3.00 era in 1981 and Jack Morris had a 3.05, also in 1981 I believe. Both cam close several times in the 1980s, but never quite there.
July 11th, 2011 at 10:45 am
Don't mean to pick nits, but the Mariners have Jack Cust (249 PA, 97 OPS+) and Adam Kennedy (265 PA, 100 OPS+). Yes, its still bad, but your statement about Smoak being the only guy with 80+ PA and an OPS+ of 96+ is incorrect.
July 11th, 2011 at 11:30 am
All hail Clint "2011 NL manager of the year" Hurdle
July 11th, 2011 at 2:09 pm
Pirates defenders -- I meant no slander by noting their record against the awful teams in their division.
I did, after all, open the point by saying they were .500 or better almost any way you slice it -- that was meant as praise, in case it's not clear.
July 11th, 2011 at 2:16 pm
@11, Genis -- Nitpicking is welcome, and I see that the numbers you cited agree with what's currently on B-R. In my defense, I'm virtually certain that the numbers I cited were also correct in terms of what was on B-R at the time I wrote this last night.
Why might there be a discrepancy? The MLB offensive context may have declined enough in one day to cause the slight differences we're talking about. Yesterday was a fairly low-scoring day, as the 30 teams averaged 3.43 runs per game; the MLB season average is 4.18 R/G.
July 11th, 2011 at 2:40 pm
Come on, John Autin! All you could say about Sabathia was that he hadn't had a shutout in 77 starts? You know which team for whom he plays. You know the Yanks say to themselves, "Why let Sabathia get up to 130 pitches to get the complete game? We have Mo." You couldn't mention that he has like 24 scoreless innings or just one run in his last 36 innings?! JA?! JA?!
JA, I am disappoint.
July 11th, 2011 at 2:42 pm
@1, Dark Leviathan -- Finally getting around to your question:
From 1973-2010, there were 424 qualifying pitcher-seasons of sub-3 ERA, compiled by 236 different pitchers.
With just 2 pitchers on that list, Detroit is worse than every other franchise except the Rays (1) and Rockies (2), who were born in 1998 and 1993, respectively. (The Rockies have another excuse, of course.)
Here are how those DH-era sub-3-ERA seasons break down by franchise, excluding the pitchers who changed teams during the season:
42 -- LAD
27 -- NYM
27 -- HOU
27 -- ATL
22 -- BOS
21 -- SFG
20 -- STL
20 -- MON
19 -- PIT
18 -- CAL
17 -- OAK
16 -- SDP
14 -- NYY
14 -- KCR
13 -- CIN
11 -- TOR
10 -- PHI
10 -- BAL
9 -- MIN
9 -- ARI
8 -- MIL
8 -- CLE
7 -- CHC
6 -- CHW
5 -- FLA
4 -- TEX
4 -- SEA
2 -- DET
2 -- COL
1 -- TBR
July 11th, 2011 at 2:57 pm
Fireworks -- Not that Sabathia's scoreless-IP streak isn't notable, but in light of Cliff Lee's recent 34-IP streak, I thought I'd focus on other factoids.
And I don't think the presence of The Great Mariano (no sarcasm intended) is the main reason why Sabathia went that long without a shutout. In between his last 2 shutouts, Sabathia had just 4 scoreless games of at least 8 IP. One of those games was scoreless when he left. In 2 of those games, he was lifted with a lead of 4 or 5 runs having thrown no more than 100 pitches. And the other was a blowout.
Without disparaging CC at all, I think it's fair to say that there are 2 main reasons why he's thrown just 2 shutouts in the last 2-1/2 years (as opposed to, say, Roy Halladay's 8):
(1) CC gets "protected" a little more than Halladay; and
(2) CC just hasn't had as many shutout opportunities. Since 2009, Sabathia has had 6 scoreless games with 8+ IP; Halladay has had 11.
July 11th, 2011 at 3:15 pm
@3, Dark -- Your team has the best record in baseball and is cruising towards its 5th straight division title -- how many tidbits do you need? 🙂
OK, here's a bone for you:
-- The Phillies lead the majors with 61 Quality Starts, 38 High-Quality Starts (7+ IP, 2 ER or less), and 18 Dominant Starts (Game Score of 75 or higher).
-- They lead the majors with a 3.02 ERA, 3.12 K/BB ratio, 1.162 WHIP, 2.4 BB/9, 11 CG, and 13 team shutouts. They've thrown just 11 wild pitches, easily the fewest in MLB (A.J. Burnett has 13 all by himself).
-- If we thought Red Sox fans were insufferable after their 2nd WS title, saints preserve us if the Phils go all the way this year. 🙂
July 11th, 2011 at 5:22 pm
In reply to the posts arguing that you can't discredit the Pirates due to their poor W-L record, considering how well they've done against certain good teams or are feasting on the Cubs.
Let's cut the Cubs some slack. Please keep in mind that they have to play against Major League Teams. . . . .
July 11th, 2011 at 6:21 pm
Since Francisco Cordero signed as a free agent with the Reds before the 2008 season by accepting their 4 year $44MM offer over the Brewers 4 year $ 40MM, he has dominated them...until this weekend.
Numbers over that contract before this series:
0-0, 30 G, 19 SV, 28.2 IP, 3 ER, 1 HR, 21 H, 8 BB, 29 K, 1.01 WHIP, 0.94 ERA
Numbers over this past series, in which the Brewers went 3-1 with 1 extra inning loss:
1-2, 3 G, 0 SV, 2.1 IP, 6 ER, 0 HR, 7 H, 3 BB, 1 K, 4.29 WHIP, 23.14 ERA
July 11th, 2011 at 7:15 pm
Cole Hamels has gotten 28 runs behind him in his last two starts. And he has only given up a total of 3. (All three runs came off of him, even though in each game, a reliever pitched the 9th.)
28-3 is a pretty good NFL score. Even over a two-game period, it's an outstanding major league baseball result.
Yesterday's 14-run effort is more impressive than last Tuesday's, when the Phillies were on the road. They only had 8 offensive innings yesterday. In last Tuesday's game, 6 of their 14 runs came in the top of the ninth.
Regarding 1-0 complete games - When was the last such game (whether the run was earned or not) in which the road team won, which means that both pitchers went nine innings?
July 11th, 2011 at 7:42 pm
great stuff John, thanks from a Tigers fan whose boyhood favorite pitcher was Jm Bunning. I still remember his baseball card noting that he had led the AL in strikeouts for a second straight year with what now seems like a low total of 201.
July 11th, 2011 at 7:54 pm
Regarding 1-0 complete games - When was the last such game (whether the run was earned or not) in which the road team won, which means that both pitchers went nine innings?
DD, I think it was this 2005 game.
July 11th, 2011 at 9:44 pm
@23, Kahuna -- I agree with your finding. On a tangent ... It occurs to me that when I do a Pitching Game search with a "Baserunners" criterion, I am thinking of "baserunners" as those for whom the pitcher is responsible: hits, walks and hit batsmen. However, the Play Index definition of "baserunners" includes runners who reach on errors.
I can certainly see the logic to that; after all, those who reach on errors are, in the simplest meaning of the term, baserunners. But I still wish that the Play Index offered the criterion I want: hits + walks + hit batsmen.
As a sophisticated P-I user and database searcher, do you have any suggestions for me? Thanks.
July 11th, 2011 at 9:55 pm
@22, Thanks, Bill. You must have been bummed out when they dealt Bunning to the Phils and saw him average 18-11, 2.48 and 248 strikeouts over the next 4 years.
Hindsight is 20-20, but that trade (Bunning & Triandos for Don Demeter & Jack Hamilton) may have cost Detroit the '67 pennant. Bunning would have been the ace that team lacked. Detroit was the only winning team in '67 that didn't have a rotation starter with a sub-3 ERA.
July 12th, 2011 at 12:25 am
John Autin, your surliness will not sap my love for Sabathia.
Our love affair will last for all time (or until he starts to suck).
July 12th, 2011 at 9:13 am
I don't care if 80% of the Pirates' wins are against a girls' 9-year-old slow-pitch softball team. Keep 'em coming!
Well, ok. Maybe that's being a *bit* dramatic...
July 12th, 2011 at 5:38 pm
Re: post 27...Balburgh, could you please forward the information about that 9-year-old girls' softball team to the Cubs front office, so maybe they can schedule some games too? I haven't really been paying much attention to the game this season, and I had no idea interleague play had been extended beyond the NL & AL teams like that. This will certainly have interesting implications come playoff time.Thanks.
July 13th, 2011 at 12:26 am
On Memorial Day weekend, I was with a group of Tiger fans arguing whether Verlander was as good as Jack Morris (through age 28). I was the only Verlander vote. I guess, we should schedule a recount for Labor Day.
July 13th, 2011 at 10:24 am
@29, Michael -- That is just sad. Verlander even beats Morris (thru age 28) in the basic traditional stats:
Wins -- Verlander 95, Morris 88
W% -- Verlander .629, Morris .579
ERA -- Verlander 3.60, Morris 3.67
Strikeouts -- Verlander 1,112, Morris 765