Random recap for Thursday 8/25
Posted by John Autin on August 26, 2011
Light schedule today. Let's see how long we can ignore the White Elephant in the Stadium....
-- Pop quiz: For 2010-11 combined, name the 2 CFs with at least 9 Wins Above Replacement (B-R formula). You have 30 seconds after reading the hints: (a) One leads the other by more than 50 HRs; (b) both are in the same league; (c) one has changed teams at some point. Ready ... go! (Answer below.)
-- The surging D-backs dispatched the Nats, 8-1, behind HRs from Chris Young and Paul Goldschmidt and 6 shutout frames from Wade Miley, who earned his first big-league win in his 2nd game.
- Goldschmidt has 5 HRs and 13 RBI in 70 PAs. An 8th-round pick just 2 years ago, he blasted his way to the majors with a 1.026 OPS in 3 minor-league seasons, at least .990 each year. He was leading the AA Southern League in OBP, SLG and OPS before getting the call this month. He singled in his first big-league AB, and the next day, August 2, he hit a go-ahead 2-run HR off Tim Lincecum, boosting the D-backs into 1st place for the first time since June.
-- Jose Valverde converted his 38th straight save chance this year and 40th straight since last season, as the Tigers took 3 of 4 in Tampa. And for the 2nd time in a row, a game-ending flyball DP sealed the deal for Papa Grande. Matt Joyce -- who had earlier nailed a runner at the plate with a strong throw from RF -- was on 1st base as the tying run with 1 down in the 9th, and was going on the pitch when Sam Fuld hit a liner into RF; Joyce didn't pick up the play in time and was easily doubled off by Ryan Raburn.
- There have been only 4 game-ending flyball DPs in the majors this year, and 32 since 2001; Valverde is the only pitcher to be on the mound for 2 of them.
- Having just 2 runs to work with was nothing new to Doug Fister -- he's been backed by 2 runs or less in 34 of his 64 career starts, and 18 of 27 this year. But today he stopped the Rays on 5 hits and no walks in 7 IP, raising his record in those games to 4-23. (No wonder his career record is 15-31 despite a 103 ERA+.)
-- After homering in his first 2 trips in Texas tonight, Adrian Gonzalez now has 5 HRs in a span of 3 games for the first time in his career.
- Alexi Ogando became the 19th pitcher to allow 4+ HRs in a game this year. His ERA has been creeping up steadily in the past month, and the 27-year-old converted reliever's season IP total will soon surpass the total of all his previous pro seasons.
- Andrew Miller had his best game of the year: 0 runs on 3 hits in 6.1 IP.
-- At 79-53 (.598) after today's win in Wrigley, the Braves have a better W% than 6 of their 14 division winners from 1991-2005 -- and a 9-game headlock on the wild card.
- Pop quiz addendum: Name the last time the NL stolen base leader spent any part of a year with Atlanta.
- Brandon Beachy (8 Ks, 0 walks, 2 ER in 6 IP) has 13 Quality Starts in 20 tries -- and for you QS skeptics, note that Beachy has allowed 2 ER or less each time. He's 7-2, but with 11 no-decisions -- in which he has a 3.38 ERA, 10.4 SO/9 and a SO/BB ratio of almost 5. Overall, Beachy has 128 Ks and 32 walks in 114.1 IP, with 33 Ks and 4 walks in his last 4 starts. He had great numbers in the minors, but started in just 22 of 77 games, and has never had 120 IP in a season.
-- J.P. Arencibia became the 3rd catcher in Toronto history with 20 HRs in a season, joining John Buck (2010) and Darrin Fletcher (2000). (I was surethat Ernie Whitt had done it, but despite 6 straight years with 15-19 HRs, he never hit 20.)
-- What day is it? For the 2nd straight game, Baltimore beat the Twins 6-1; Mark Reynolds hit the game's only HR; Minnesota scored their lone run in the 3rd; a pitcher with a serious losing record had a quality-start win; Trevor Plouffe had a rare extra-base hit; and the game had 18 total hits.
- The O's have won 4 straight -- their only win streak of 3 or more games since June 10, when they were 30-31.
- It's the 2nd time this year Baltimore's had 4 straight wins by the SP, involving 7 different SPs.
-- The Giants began a crucial 10-game homestand tonight -- 4 with Houston and 3 with Chicago (combined road record: 44-83), capped by 3 against Arizona, against whom SF are 8-4 this year. But first things first: they trail the Astros in the 9th, 3-1; a loss would put them 3 games back.
-- Time to tackle that pachyderm: The Yankees trailed 7-2 in the 5th, after Phil Hughes made an early exit. But they scored 20 runs in their last 4 times up, and as you've surely heard by now, became the first team ever to hit 3 grand slams in a game.
Robinson Cano kicked off the grand parade in the 5th with his 22nd HR and 6th career slam; they loaded the bases again right afterward, but Brett Gardner and Derek Jeter still didn't grasp the theme of the day, and both left the sacks full as they had done in the 2nd.
In the 6th, they filled up the sacks again on a HBP and 2 walks, including a 2-out IBB that brought up Russell Martin. The Yankee catcher unwound with his 2nd HR of the game, 16th of the year, and 3rd career granny to put the Yankees on top; 4 of his 5 career multi-HR games have come this year. Once again, the next 3 batters reached base, but this time it was Eduardo Nunez who scorned the historic possibilities, getting thrown out at the plate trying to score on Jeter's infield hit.
After Boone Logan struck out the side in the top of the 7th, New York quickly loaded the bases in their half with 3 straight walks, then had 7 cracks at a third salami, with no luck: (1) Cano hit a sac fly; Nick Swisher walked to reload; (2) Martin singled in a run; (3) Nunez drove in a run with a forceout; Gardner walked to reload; (4) Jeter walked to force in a run; (5) Curtis Granderson had an IF single; (6) Teixeira forced in a run with the inning's 7th walk; and (7) Alex Rodriguez, with a chance to tie Lou Gehrig's all-time record of 23 career slams, lined out. (A-Rod has 12 grand slams with NYY, and at least 1 in each of the past 7 years.)
In the 8th, now leading 16-8, the Yankees loaded the bases with 1 out, but Gardner merely singled in a run, and Jeter struck out for the Yanks 10th straight grand-slam-free PA with the bases-loaded. (DJ has just 1 slam in 272 career chances, 4 of them today.) Finally, perhaps inevitably, someone came along with an appropriate sense of history and a fitting moniker: Granderson fought back from an 0-2 count, fouled off a couple of 2-2 pitches, and drove the final offering from Bruce Billings over the right-center fence, his 36th HR of the year, which carried him over the 100-RBI mark for the first time.
There have been 7 seasons by a Yankee CF with more HRs than Granderson: 5 by Mickey Mantle, 2 by Joe DiMaggio.
And if all that wasn't enough, Andruw Jones greeted Brian Fuentes with the cherry on top of the all-you-can-eat sundae, a 431-foot solo shot to LF, his 10th HR this year and #417 in his career.
In 8 innings, the Yankees saw 237 pitches, including 110 balls that led to 13 walks. They made 58 trips to the plate, and 35 reached safely, for a .603 OBP. (That's good, but it's not Bonds-2004 good.) They rolled up 21 hits, including Martin's first 5-hit game and 5 HRs, 2 doubles and a Jeter triple, for a .930 SLG and thus a 1.533 OPS (so they've got that over Barry). They had 15 PAs with the bases loaded.
Besides making grand slam history, the Yanks also set a franchise live-ball home record with 36 safe times on base in regulation, and became the first AL team to do that since 1953.
Looking at things through the Athletics' eyes ... No, I can't. Some other time, perhaps.
_____________
-- Pop quiz answers: Matt Kemp (9.6 WAR) and Michael Bourn (9.5) are the 2 CFs with 9+ WAR over the past 2 years combined. I am very late to the Michael Bourn party; it seems he's a defensive wiz (4.2 dWAR over the past 2 years, 2nd to Brett Gardner among all OFs), and a pretty fair offensive player, too, despite lacking power. He has a 110 OPS+ this year, and is on track for his 3rd straight NL steals crown; he would be the first player ever to lead the league in SB while wearing an Atlanta uniform at any point in the year.
August 26th, 2011 at 3:43 am
If intentional walks are taken away from both, then NY's OBP is significantly better than bonds' "historic" '04 season.
August 26th, 2011 at 5:39 am
Well yes, Jbird. And if HRs were (arbitrarily...magically) "taken away" then I suppose that both Bond's 2004 season, and the August 25th, 2011 Yankee-A's game would be less "historic" as well.
What else might we take away to make the spectacular less so?
Wonderful recap, as always JA.
August 26th, 2011 at 5:46 am
i just saw where the O's 3rd baseman made a barehanded catch for an out. i was going to ask if that still counted, but apparently it does. so my next question would be, does anyone remember the last time that was done?
August 26th, 2011 at 6:46 am
I like how Granderson picked up another 4 R's this game... On pace for 151 runs, which would have been a lot in 2001... Insane.
August 26th, 2011 at 7:31 am
Kevin Mitchell made a barehanded catch, back in 1989. I don't know if it's been done between then & now.
August 26th, 2011 at 7:42 am
Davis Wright made a famous barehander a few years ago on a blooper over his head, IIRC. I played softball with a guy years ago who had played only cricket, and a couple of times early in the season, being new to a glove, he sort of panicked and threw his glove away right before catching a flyball (which he caught cleanly with two bare hands). We never did let him play the infield...
August 26th, 2011 at 7:59 am
In my first year playing softball (as an adult, almost never played as a kid), I remember barehanding a catch on a throw to the plate by our 3B, because it came well to my right side, and I hadn't yet developed the instinct to put the glove that far across my body. hurt like hell, but I made the play.
August 26th, 2011 at 8:00 am
@2 and JA
I had to look up the word arbitrary. I could spell it, but I did not know the precise meaning.
Pretty tough word, KJ.
I appreciate that you have shared openly.
I saw your presentation, John, of Barry Bonds' 2004 season OBP in comparison/contrast to the Yankees' 22-9 game OBP near the tail-end of your initial post.
Here's the angle: based on the premise that a hitter has no say in whether or not an intentional walk is issued (for example, he can not choose to forsake the walk in order to create a potentially better offensive play) and that this is a universal truth for all hitters, another layer of statistical perspective has been exposed.
120 of Bonds' 376 times on base in '04 were due to the opposing team's decision-making (IBBs), not Barry's performance at the plate in that at bat. That happened to be over 30 percent of his total times reached. That's a pretty darn high clip that, when muted for a moment, reveals an even more accurate look at how Bonds did in at bats where the final outcomes of the plate appearances were not decided until he made his own destiny himself.
Even with this statistical bent, Bonds was, still the MLB OBP leader by far.
However, using the "bend" in '06, Manny (who would have led the Majors), Nick Johnson (who would have led the NL), Pronk, Jeter, Mauer, and (split-league) Abreu all bested Barry's OMI (OBP - IBB%).
That's the gist. Just ask if you're curious. Sleepy. Be well.
August 26th, 2011 at 9:17 am
The Giants offense totally sucks but look how many outs they gave away last night. Two caught stealing (Belt and Sandoval)!!. Two sacrifices (the pitcher and Keppinger)
August 26th, 2011 at 9:29 am
Check out the very short list of players with 4.5 WAR in a season with an OPS+ of 90 or less:
Generated 8/26/2011.
August 26th, 2011 at 9:39 am
Everything you need to know about the A's/Yanks game can be found here...
http://espn.go.com/blog/statsinfo/post/_/id/25283/yankees-slam-way-into-record-books
August 26th, 2011 at 9:49 am
Love the Baltimore stat: Two 4-game winning streaks with 8 wins by 8 different starting pitchers.
More on the Matt Joyce game ending base running blunder:
He ran from 1st to 2nd on a "hit and run" with his head down, forgetting to watch the ball-bat contact as it happened. According to Harold Reynolds on MLB network, Joyce turned to look about 2 steps too late, as if he thought a straight steal was called for, not a hit-and-run. That or he missed the sign altogether and was trying to steal on his own accord. (Joe Maddon later confirmed the hit-and-run was on.)
This was the second game in a row between the Tigers and Rays that ended bizarrely with a "mental error". On Wednesday, the Rays were batting in the bottom of the 10th, tie score, with the bases loaded and two outs. Third baseman Brandon Inge fielded a routinely hit ground ball and fired to 2nd base for what should have been the last out of the inning. Ramon Santiago, however, caught the throw two steps away from the bag. By the time he took the two steps to the bag, Rodriguez had slid in safely, touching the bag at nearly the exact moment that Santiago did. This allowed the winning run to score from 3rd on a "walk-off" fielder's choice!
I had a decent guess with "Otis Nixon, 1992" as the Braves stolen base leader. Turns out he had 72 stolen bases for the Braves in 1991, second only to Marquis Grissom's 76 for the Expos. Nixon was also 3rd in 1993 as a Brave, behind Chuck Carr and Grissom. Before joining the Braves, Grissom (as an Expo) was 1st, 1st, 2nd, and 3rd in 4 years. As a Brave the next two seasons, he was 12th and 16th respectively. Coincidentally, Nixon also played for the Expos before joining the Braves-Baseball Almanac website has the top 25 in most categories for every year.
August 26th, 2011 at 10:14 am
JA, regarding the Boston-Texas series, if this is a preview of a playoff match-up, the Red Sox certainly threw down the gauntlet.
I agree with your implication that Alexi Ogando's star has fallen from earlier in the season. Ah, the correcting effect of a larger sample size.
@8
Jbird, very clearly-written piece, in my opinion. I will bite on the OMI acronym. Your post brought to my mind the thought that the distorting effect of IBB on OBA is unique to Barry Bonds in all of baseball history, because of his other-worldly IBB.
I guess I'm just realizing something everbody else already knew; the fact that Bonds is the only person since 1919 to have more than 50 IBB in a season. Bonds had it happen to him three times and he also holds 6 out of the top ten IBB seasons all-time. His 2004 season looks like it was from another universe.
My revelation, after you got my wheels turning, Jbird, was that IBB is a relatively recent strategy in baseball history.
When I searched for seasons of more than 30 IBB there were only 25, the oldest one being Ted Williams in 1957. I had assumed that Ruth and other old-time sluggers would populate the list, even if not in Bondsian territory.
Help my thinking here, someone, but was Ruth not intentionally walked more often because:
(a) the home run "revolution" was so new in the early 1920's?
(b) Babe Ruth, for most of his career, was protected by other good hitters?
(c) the intentional base on balls had not evolved yet as a strategy? And, if not, when did IBB start to become common?
How many IBB would Ruth be issued by today's major-league managers?
@10
Andy, I appreciate the information provided by your list. An awful lot of defense on that list, all of it up the middle of the diamond, of course. Hmmm....... no catchers (the other up-the-middle-of-the diamond position) could accumulate that much WAR with such low offensive production.
August 26th, 2011 at 10:42 am
@13
Intentional walks weren't recorded until 1955. They were a well-established strategy, and I'm sure Babe Ruth drew plenty of them.
August 26th, 2011 at 10:42 am
Actually....Zach Britton won a game in both of the 4-game winning streaks. So, 7 different starting pitchers total. Still impressive!
- Matusz, Jakubauskas, Britton, Arrieta (June 6-10)
- Britton, Simon, Guthrie, Reyes (August 23-26)
Tommy Hunter can add to this stat tonight v.s. the Yankees. Will it be 8 starting pitchers combining for 2 streaks with 9 wins by starters in 9 games?
Believe it or not, the Orioles have 4 streaks this season of 4 or more wins (one is a 5 game streak).
August 26th, 2011 at 10:45 am
@10, Andy -- Although I assume that Bourn was the point of that list, he's not actually on it, despite 4.9 WAR and a 90 OPS+ last year. Also missing is Don Blasingame, 1957, also with exactly 90 OPS+.
I find the Play Index is a little quirky with OPS+ criteria, presumably due to rounding.(?) If I do your search with the OPS+ less than or equal to 91, Bourn and Blasingame make the list.
But if I do the search with either OPS+ = 90 or 91, neither one shows up -- nor does Devon White, also listed with a 90 OPS+.
August 26th, 2011 at 10:46 am
"It's the 2nd time this year Baltimore's had 4 straight wins by the SP, but those wins were earned by 8 different SPs."
Let me use your comment, JA, as an excuse for ranting against last night's starting and winning pitcher for the Orioles. Jo Jo Reyes has an ERA/ERA+ of 4.57/90 with the O's compared to 5.40/77 with his previous team this season so the change of scenary has helped him.
Jo Jo performed his typical high-wire balancing act last night, allowing 9 baserunners in 6 IP, a wild pitch but escaped with only one ER. I imagine only on a team with pitching as bad as the Orioles would he be allowed to make starts. He has pitched a total of 21 innings in his four starts for Baltimore.
However, a quality start for Reyes in true Jack-Morris-like style so I guess that the glass can be half empty or ........, depending on how you want to look at it.
August 26th, 2011 at 10:47 am
@14
Ah, thank you Morten. Now the data makes a lot more sense.
August 26th, 2011 at 10:58 am
Neil L., IBB only dates from 1955, it was not an official statistic before that. i have seen claims that a reporter following the Yankees in 1921 counted 80+ IBB's for Ruth that year. It probably went down after Gehrig established himself as a star batting behind Ruth. Of course some walks are "unintentionally intentional". The pitcher decides he will stay away from the plate, but not as far as an IBB.
August 26th, 2011 at 11:32 am
@19
Thanks also, Kds, a (mostly) embarrassing post on my part. And here I thought I was on to something new. 🙁
August 26th, 2011 at 11:49 am
80 IBBs sounds high. Ruth's overall walk rates didn't change *that* much once Gehrig came along. From 1920-26, Ruth walked in 21.0% of PA. 1927 is when Gehrig became GEHRIG. From 1927-32, Ruth walked in 19.0% of PA. So if one attributes that entire difference to IBBs, it would be around 12 per 600 PA.
Of course, that assumes that Ruth's batting eye didn't evolve over those seasons, or that he never IBB'd after 1926, and a lot of other things we shouldn't really assume.
One oddity is Ruth's walk rate in '29. He drew 72 walks, just 12.3% of his PA. His hitting was pretty much as good as it had been. The season fell right in the middle of an 8-year run when he led the league in BBs every other time. In fact, he led the league in BBs every season 1920-33 except '22 (suspension), '25 (tummy ache), and '29. What was going on in '29?
And adding to the oddness, Ruth *didn't* have Gehrig behind him most of that season. Gehrig was the Yanks' most common #3 hitter that season, and Ruth batted in the 3 and 4 spots an equal number of times.
My guess is a late-career strategic shift. Ruth had led the league in strikeouts in '27 and '28, and 5 times in his career. In '29, his K rate also dropped, to a career low 10.2% of PA, after averaging 12.8% the previous 5 seasons. In the following years, it went even lower (despite the league K-rate rising during this time), and Ruth never led the league in strikeouts again. His BB rate went right back up in '30 and he remained a great hitter for a few more seasons. Did Ruth think he was striking out too much and feel he had to change his approach to remain on top of the game? And perhaps it took a season for him to get used to whatever adjustments he had made. Anyone have any insight on this?
August 26th, 2011 at 11:52 am
@15, Brett -- Thanks for the correction. I thought I had double-checked that one, but I still goofed it.
August 26th, 2011 at 11:58 am
@21, JT -- I thought that mystery re: Ruth's 1929 walk rate sounded familiar, so I googled it. Funny what came up on top:
http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/archives/9457#comment-77591
http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/archives/9457#comment-77621
Unfortunately, I never get any further with the question.
🙂
August 26th, 2011 at 12:01 pm
John, I count 16 bases-loaded PAs for the Yankees in yesterday's game:
• Two in the bottom of the second (pop fly and groundout)
• Three in the bottom of the fifth (HR by Canó, pop fly and groundout)
• One in the bottom of the sixth (HR by Martin)
• Seven in the bottom of the seventh (fly ball, single, groundout, walk, single, walk, lineout)
• Three in the bottom of the eighth (single, strikeout, HR by Granderson)
I was counting because I was curious whether this was the greatest number of bases-loaded PAs in a game. As far as I know, it is. If Elias or somebody researched this question and has a definite answer, please, speak up!
August 26th, 2011 at 12:06 pm
@8:
Yeah, that's a warm and fuzzy thought about taking away IBB's from Bonds so you can try and bridge the gap with the other mere mortals...except that they happened! Plus, he was probably so pissed off that they chickened out that he was trying to hit everything else he got and didn't want more walks 🙂
Also, if you get rid of homers on Sundays then some home run champs may not be home run champs any more.
August 26th, 2011 at 12:19 pm
@16 yeah there's a bug in the database. Bourne should be on that list.
August 26th, 2011 at 12:47 pm
"That's good, but it's not Bonds-2004 good."
This is genius.
August 26th, 2011 at 1:01 pm
@8
Anon, not sure where the animosity is coming from. I don't think Jbird is trying to detract from Barry Bonds' legacy with his post #8
You have to have established your reputation in order to be issued an IBB to begin with. So it is, at least partly, a sign of respect that Bonds got intentionally walked.
What I took Jbird to mean was that if we interpret OBP as a metric of strike zone judgement and batting eye for a player, which I usually do, then it is slightly more accurate to remove the IBB component from OBP.
The fact that the batter took four wide ones where the pitcher was not even trying to nibble around the plate says nothing about the batter's command of the strike one, even though it contributes, silently, to his OBP.
JA, returning to one point in your original blog, the San Francisco Giants. They are 3-7 in their last 10 games, including a home loss to the notoriously tough Houston Astros as you allude to. I am not close enough to their story to hypothesize reasons, but it seems like a fatal swoon.
The Diamondbacks have left the door open the last little while (go John McDonald, go) but the Giants can't walk through.
My lazy assumption would lack of hitting and bad luck, but is it all that simple? Buster Posey are you healing fast? 🙂
August 26th, 2011 at 1:45 pm
@16
Michael Bourn (2010) and Don Blasingame (1957) likely have an OPS+ between 90.00 and 90.50 and thus round down to 90. So depending on how you want to treat rounded numbers, you may or may not want to count these as "90+ or less". At the least, we know how to make them show up on our list and interpret them when they do.
By the way, despite no decimal points being displayed for OPS+ in the search results, you can fine tune your search by using OPS + <= 90.4, 90.3, etc.
Bourne makes the cut at OPS+ <= 90.42, but drops out at OPS+ <= 90.41.
Blasingame makes the cut at OPS+ <= 90.17, but drops out at OPS+ <= 90.16
Michael Bourn's 2010 WAR is listed as 4.5 in the search results, but is 4.9 in his profile page. ??
Among the other players on the list, I found no discrepancies between the OPS+/WAR in the searches and those in the player profiles.
Whenever feasible, you could choose OPS+ (or other precentage based stat) as the sorting stat. This would keep borderline eligible values from being filtered out. I suppose though, that we could have encountered the same issue with WAR. Of course, if you understand the rounding issue, then you won't have trouble regardless.
August 26th, 2011 at 1:55 pm
Neil's mention of John McDonald reminds me of an interesting tidbit I heard about the Diamondbacks' game yesterday.
It was not the first time that 3B Ryan Roberts, SS John McDonald, 2B Aaron Hill, and 1B Lyle Overbay started a game together. This happened to be the exact starting infield of the Blue Jays back on May 27th, 2007! I researched this and while all four appeared in other games together, this was the only one in which they all started.
Does anyone know of another instance when the same four infielders have played together on more than one team?
August 26th, 2011 at 2:01 pm
@30. Sorry that was Wednesday, not yesterday. Paul Goldschmidt played 1b yesterday. Also sorry if someone had already posted about that in a different blog.
August 26th, 2011 at 2:05 pm
Here's a good trivia question:
Which two pitchers are the only active pitchers with 2000 or more strikeouts?
- Which pitcher will become the third such active pitcher in 3 or 4 starts?
- Which pitcher could become the fourth such active pitcher this season if he averages 8 k's over 6 more starts?
August 26th, 2011 at 2:15 pm
@8 JBird,
I appreciate your clarification. My understanding of your originally placing "historic" in quotes with reference to Bonds' 2004 season was meant to detract from Bonds' accomplishment.
@ 28 Neil,
I think the point that Anon and I are making is that when you disregard IBBs, then you need to account for those 130 PAs. Something along the lines of 20% of Bonds' PAs. Slugging at .812, how do you think Bonds would have used those opportunities that he was denied?
While I agree that regular walks measure K-zone judgment and the batter's eye (and patience), IBBs (in a Bonds or Ruth case) are a measure that as well. When a pitcher pitches around a batter, his intent is to either walk him or get him to swing at bad pitches. The risk is, accidentally getting something into the strike-zone and having that mistake belted. The incredible number of IBBs to Bonds indicates many things, the lack of supporting hitters on that club being one. But moreover, they show respect for Bonds' eye, plate discipline AND his ability to consistently crush any mistake pitch.
And don't forget that quite of few of those IBBs would have been walks anyway, as the pitcher, one way or the other, was not going to give Bonds anything to hit.
The IBB, when issued at that rate, I'm arguing, may be a greater indication of the metrics you use to measure a batter's abilities when considering OBP. Because the pitcher won't even allow those abilities to come into play.
August 26th, 2011 at 3:17 pm
@32 - Halladay is the answer to the last one
August 26th, 2011 at 3:42 pm
Regarding that Valverde performance: Elias are saying that he is the first pitcher in ML history to get two consecutive saves on game-ending outfield assists.
Elias probably believe that saves didn't happen until about 1969, but it's still impressive. Does PI give a way to see if it happened before then?
August 26th, 2011 at 3:48 pm
Halladay is a good guess. He's currently 104 strikeouts away from 2000. Possibly May of next year? This total puts him at 6th all-time among active players.
The two already at 2000 are far from obvious. The one with an outside shot to reach 2000 this season is even less obvious. The one who will definitely reach 2000 by season's end is someone likely to be guessed (he's only 30 years old, but has been pitching for 11 seasons) .
August 26th, 2011 at 4:00 pm
JA,
Nice recap on the NYY barrage. You say 15 PAwBL (that's what I count); Elias says 16, but no note on whether this is a record or what the record is.
35 OB has to be close to a record as well.
August 26th, 2011 at 4:05 pm
I got #2 but not #1. As for #2, get that win already!
August 26th, 2011 at 4:57 pm
@35
I can't figure out a way.
I suppose "outfield assist" is a fielding stat and that is why it is not selectable for pitching or hitting searches.
I thought maybe "double plays + fly outs + saves" for pitchers would produce a subset of the games we are looking for. (This would undesirably include a few non-game ending ones, and exclude all outfield assists following non-catches). However GiDP (Ground into Double Play) for pitchers is the only "double play" stat choice for double plays. Fly outs also are not available for pitchers.
From the hitters perspective you would have no way of narrowing down the time of the play to the last inning or so, when it could be a game ending play. Also, like for pitchers, GDP counts only ground ball double plays and flyouts is not available.
Anyone have another idea?
August 26th, 2011 at 9:23 pm
The two guys with 2000 K active today... Javier Vazquez for certain. The second, I'll guess Tim Hudson. Don't quite know who's within 50 - maybe Cliff Lee? Sabathia?
August 26th, 2011 at 10:09 pm
Re: Yanks' total PAs with the bases loaded -- I'll assume my 15 was an undercount, but I'll add that it must not be as easy as you'd think. The NY Times game story said 17, while others here say 16.
August 26th, 2011 at 10:10 pm
OK, it's 16 PAs with the bases full. It's a lot easier to count using the Retrosheet/B-R play-by-play, just searching for "123".
August 26th, 2011 at 10:43 pm
It's a lot easier to count using the Retrosheet/B-R play-by-play, just searching for "123".
That's all I'm saying.
August 26th, 2011 at 11:38 pm
@kj
Bonds' impact on the sport I love most has been tremendous. Your intuition is correct in that the quotation marks around historic were meant as a detractor to his accomplishments, but that was me forgetting to be objective, and I apologise. The same post without the quotes in it is much more assimilable for those with pro-Bonds tendencies. I meant no insult to you or anyone who know better than I do how great he was or how much he meant to those he touched.
August 26th, 2011 at 11:45 pm
@Neil
Thanks for the encouragement, support, and elaboration.
"...if we interpret OBP as a metric of strike zone judgement and batting eye for a player, which I usually do, then it is slightly more accurate to remove the IBB component from OBP."
This is not meant to detract from reputation and ability which has likely earned him this free pass, but to isolate the at bats where final outcome involvement is the player's. It's a great start for different looks at the data. I'm also thinking HBP should be grouped in with those IBB PAs.
August 27th, 2011 at 12:36 am
Batters affect HBP.
August 27th, 2011 at 12:39 am
Has a grand slam ever added less WPA than the last one by NY?
Why is anyone guessing at the active strikeout leaderboard? Click, scroll, click and you have the list.
August 27th, 2011 at 1:58 am
32
Javier Vazquez is definitely one of the guys with 2000; for the other I'll say...Mark Buehrle?
CC Sabathia is definitely one of the guys who's close; for the other I'll guess Tim Hudson.
August 27th, 2011 at 2:21 am
@47
You are right - I figured anyone who didn't want to play along but was interested in knowing the answers would look them up. Here are the top 7 (top 4 are the answers to my questions).....
No one guessed Tim Wakefield or Kevin Millwood.
Active career strikeout leaders: (age in parenthesis)
1. Javier Vazquez (34) 2494 R
2. Tim Wakefield (44) 2132 R
3. CC Sabathia (30) 1978 L
4. Kevin Millwood (36) 1953 R
5. Livan Hernandez (36) 1926 R
6. Roy Halladay (34) 1896 R
7. Johan Santana (32) 1877 L
August 27th, 2011 at 2:37 am
@Twisto.
Is it a decision a batter makes to become hit by a pitch? Or is that over in the bush league?
August 27th, 2011 at 2:01 pm
Jbird, re: HBP -- If you look at the wide range in batter HBP rates, I think it's impossible to deny that the batter often has as much effect as the pitcher, often far more, in HBP events.
There is far more range in batter HBP rates than in pitcher HBP rates. Pick any rate of HBP in a season, you'll find more batter seasons at that level than pitcher seasons.
For example, 2% of PAs: There have been 48 qualifying pitcher seasons with HBP in more than 2% of PAs. There have been 475 qualifying batter seasons at that rate.
August 27th, 2011 at 2:03 pm
At HBP more than 3% of PAs, you get 1 qualifying pitcher season, from 1895 -- but 102 hitter seasons.
August 28th, 2011 at 3:05 am
@Twisto and JA
Your assertions that batters affect hbp and are more inclined to being hbp than pitchers are to commtting them are uncontestable.
I still can't help but feel that if a blanket statement has to be made one way or another regarding the final outcome of a plate appearance which ends with the pitch hitting a batsman, the realm of control lies beyond the batter.
Imagine all the hit by pitches that you have witnessed, even the ones by the more inclined guys like Baylor, Biggio, and the Big Cat. Is it true that no less than half of these were "dodgeable"? If it is, then these "victims" are actually manipulists. And that IS bush league. But most HBP that i have seen were not, seemingly. And against the velocities of the pros' pitches, the natural and instinctive tendency as a batter is to protect yourself when an erratic or even a headhunting ball comes your way. Either you have time to escape or you don't quite make it and are struck. There is no time to press pause, look at the pitch, determine its speed, where it's going to strike, is it dangerous or not, safe, ok, take the HBP.
I still say the final outcome is beyond batter control, and therefore, if there is any value to some of the ideas @8, @28, and @45, then HBP are to be included with the IBB.
Great stuff. I am impressionable. Keep it coming.
August 28th, 2011 at 4:39 am
I think of it like this:
1) How many situations allow for a pitcher to willingly hit a batter? Few if any. Happens only when the game is out of reach, out of mere frustration or retaliation.
2) How many situations allow for a batter to willingly get hit? Nearly all.
It's not suprising then, that many hitters developed the ability to take a pitch on the shoulder (or elsewhere).
John's statistics I find to be interesting but, as is the case with all statistics, they do not tell the whole story. Consider the 475 to 48 statistic (2% hpb rate)....
1) I'm guessing that ratio fits very well with the total number of qualifying hitters to the total number of qualifying pitchers. Correct me if I'm wrong.
2) Over 100 years, that's roughly 5 to 6 players per year (hitters + pitchers) which represents a small number of the total hbp's each season.
3) The players above 2% are clearly above the mean, but there could be just as many players equally as far below the mean.
Anyway, of all the hbp's I've seen, I would say nearly half are avoidable by the batter.
..........................................
Whether or not PA's from HBP's should count towards OBP is another debate.
Let's say it is close to 50% of the time that the batter willfully gets hit. This means half the time the batter bends/breaks the rules to get on base while the other half of the time it was random luck. To me, in neither type of occurrence is it justifiable to reward OBP.
What about IBB's? I think definitely these should count towards OBP. Yes, game situation often dictates that an IBB will occur (winning run on 3rd base with less than two outs). But, I argue that in the long run (nearly) every player in the league will benefit equally from this type of IBB - thus no need to try to eliminate this type of IBB from OBP. In most other game situations, you generally only see a team's top player get a free pass to 1st (or one of the team's top players). These IBB's are a credit to the hitter and should definitely count towards OBP. There is one type of IBB however that I could see NOT counting.
Perhaps a IBB with two outs to get to the opposing team's pitcher should count as "pitcher's indifference" (A choice not to pitch to this batter, allowing him to take 1st base uncontested). This would be somewhat analagous to "catcher's indifference" (and general "fielder's indifference"). What do you guys think about this?
August 28th, 2011 at 4:51 am
3) The players above 2% are clearly above the mean, but there could be just as many players equally as far below the mean.
My point by this was that if you look at any range of hbp rate, for example "less than 1.2%", you may also find about 475 hitters and 48 pitchers. So, really this point is virtually the same point as in (1) just stated in a way that even myself couldn't understand when I re-read it.
August 28th, 2011 at 4:53 am
"even myself" - emphasis placed on myself since I am the one who wrote that!
August 28th, 2011 at 8:38 am
as a bottom line plate appearance, a one or a zero, yes, it counts. always will and should. i am not trying to change the game or anthing. i am trying to isolate a very specific type of plate appearance. one which as accurately as possible reflects a player's true abilities to successfully put wood on the ball or not and the quanifiable magnitude of those abilities. for what i'm working on, IBB and HBPwon't qualify. On that intentional fourth ball, which is the only one that has to be intentional to get the 1 in the column, it's not considerable at all in any way towards the abililites i'm working to isolate. same with the inside pitch that gets you: whether it chapman's a batter or hits the bat (not the guy) but the batter is rewarded anyway, that pitch will not do for measuring the batter's ability to be successfully offensive at the plate.
August 28th, 2011 at 12:43 pm
@54 -- No time for a deeper analysis of your points, but you're way off on the ratio of qualifying hitters to qualifying pitchers. For the expansion era (1961-2010), it's about 3:2. In more recent years, still less than 2:1.
BTW, these facts are available on B-R, even without subscribing to the Play Index; you can get counts of qualifying players on the season batting and pitching pages, e.g., http://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/NL/2011-standard-batting.shtml.
On the view that the pitcher is generally much more responsible for a HBP than the matter, I'll add that the exact same view was widely held about walks for many years, on the same grounds -- in any single instance, it simply looks that way; and after all, the pitcher is the one with the ball in his hand. (And that's one big reason that batting average became the main measure of batter performance, instead of on-base percentage.) But that view of walks no longer holds much sway.
Perhaps it's been easier to acknowledge the reality on walks because the numbers are so much bigger than with HBP. But the logic is the same.
It's too simple to say that most of the time, a batter could get out of the way. There's a lot more to the HBP picture -- most significantly, the batter's position in the box, and how he strides as the pitch comes in. I suspect that batter HBP rate increases exponentially with proximity to the plate; not only will he be hit by more pitches that simply get away from the pitcher, but his strategy of crowding the plate almost demands that the pitcher counter by pitching him inside, and a higher rate of inside pitches will increase his HBP rate even further.
August 28th, 2011 at 3:02 pm
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