Random recap: Friday, 8/12
Posted by John Autin on August 13, 2011
-- Matt Cain was a 2-1 loser [yawn], leveling his season record at 9-9. Eight of his 9 losses came when the Giants scored 2 runs or less (2-8, 3.42 in 12 games), but that's old hat by now. SF has scored 2 runs or less in 71 of his 195 career starts; his performance in those games was better than in other games (3.23 ERA to 3.48 otherwise), but his record is 10-48.
-- Carlos Zambrano is a bad joke once again, and I don't even mean his mound work (8 runs in 4.1 IP). Zambrano was ejected after throwing way inside to Chipper Jones in the 5th, just after back-to-back HRs by Dan Uggla (his 2nd of the game) and Freddie Freeman, which brought Big Bad Z's game total to 5 HRs, including Chipper's 3-run shot in the 3rd. Zambrano isn't the only hot-head in the game, by a long shot, but he's the only one I know of who's getting paid $18 million a year.
- Normally I don't use other news reports, but this one can't be ignored: Zambrano cleaned out his locker and left before the end of the game, saying that he is retiring. I'll bet his teammates took it well; they've had some practice....
- Zambrano was suspended last June for one of his chronic tantrums. An overview of his career tantrum record is found on his Wikipedia page; scan for the word "eject" or "argument."
- I've no clue what else is going on in Zambrano's life, but from an on-field perspective, the timing couldn't be more bizarre: he had won 3 of his last 4 starts, and the Cubs were in their best stretch of the year, winning 9 of 11 before tonight.
-- Ervin Santana won his 5th straight start, matching a career high. As in his last game, he lost the shutout in the 9th, but hung on for his 3rd CG in his last 4 outings. Santana has allowed exactly 1 run in each game of the streak, covering 43 IP, for an 0.83 ERA.
- Santana is the 5th pitcher this year to win 5 straight starts allowing no more than 1 run in each; he matched the longest such streak in one year since 2005, when Chris Carpenter had 6.
-- Speaking of pitcher win streaks, Ian Kennedy won his 7th straight start, with 3 runs or less in each; that matches the longest streak this year with that combo (Verlander).
- At 15-3, 3.12, Kennedy is tied with Roy Halladay for the NL wins lead. He's the 6th pitcher in D-backs history with a 15-win season.
- Don't look now, Baby Snakes, but you're 2 games up on the World Champions. Your humble narrator takes pride in a rare accurate prediction, having forecast in mid-June that of all the surprise teams to that point, Arizona would have the longest legs.
-- Kahuna Tuna recently noted that Nathan Eovaldi is the only MLB player whose last name begins with "Eo." The 21-year-old Eovaldi hails from the small town of Alvin, TX (ring a bell?) and fanned 7 in 5 IP in a winning debut. Tonight, he blanked the Astros on 2 hits over 6 innings; but Bud Norris was just as sharp, and at this writing the game is scoreless in the 10th, with both teams at 3 hits. [... "this just in: ..."]
- You tell me: After a leadoff double in the last of the 9th, with a RHP on the mound, Houston intentionally walked Andre Ethier to face Matt Kemp. The MVP candidate promptly singled home the game-winner. The career platoon numbers for Ethier and Kemp say it was a good move; I guess it comes down to whether or not you believe in mojo.
August 13th, 2011 at 2:22 am
Bruce Chen has allowed 2 ER in 21 innings pitched in three games against my White Sox. Against everyone else, he's at 41 ER in 66.1 innings. Sigh...
August 13th, 2011 at 2:29 am
Yeah... Just saw the Zambrano highlights... His behavior can BEST be described as bizarre. Petulent. Essentially taking his ball and going home. This is fine if you are a tennis player. Not fine if you are involved in a team sport - where teammates will make an effort to stand by a teammate when they step out of line.
When a pitcher drills a batter, a bench player will join the brawl in defense of a the pitcher even if they do not agree with it. That is called loyalty.
But if I were a player on the Cubs, I would NOT feel inclined to stand by him at all based on his history of histrionics. Maybe if he drilled a player and was charged by the opponents, and his teammates watched it happen... Maybe then he would know what it means to quit on your teammates.
August 13th, 2011 at 2:30 am
Drew, I feel your pain. But when you're regularly fielding a lineup that includes three or four offensive zeroes, consistent inconsistency is to be expected.
I don't mean to hurt any feelings, but ... Alexis Rios, Brent Morel, Juan Pierre and Gordon Beckham should be grateful to Adam Dunn for deflecting attention from their own awful seasons. Rios has a .257 OBP, 17 GDP, 22 walks and 27 RBI -- a truly horrendous output.
August 13th, 2011 at 2:42 am
Santana's win tonight was also his second consecutive game at Rogers Centre where he lost his shutout bid on a 9th inning solo HR. Like tonight, he also got the W and a CG in the earlier April 18, 2010 contest.
August 13th, 2011 at 2:47 am
On Vernon Wells' first PA in tonight's Angels game against the Jays, Wells received a standing O from the small crowd on his first appearance back in Toronto, whereupon he stepped out of the batter's box to tip his cap ... er batting helmet.
On his first pitch to Wells in that AB, Brendan Morrow served up a hanging curve or slider that Vernon deposited in the left-field seats.
August 13th, 2011 at 3:09 am
"Reports of my demise have been greatly exaggerated."
Re: your mention of Chipper Jones, my recollection from last year was that that was supposed to be his swan song. Anyone know if there's talk like that again this year?
Aside from drawing fewer walks this year (i.e. less respect from the pitchers), Jones has been remarkably consistent in his rate stats the last 3 years:
- 2009: .264 / .388 / .430
- 2010: .265 / .381 / .426
- 2011: .264 / .340 / .430
He's also still contributing modest but positive WAR (up to 81.3 career WAR now) and OPS+ over 100. I say good for him in knowing it wasn't time to hang them up, despite all the the talk last year that he should do exactly that.
August 13th, 2011 at 4:08 am
@3.
John, your mention of Alex Rios and Adam Dunn led me to run a search of guys who have made the most outs in the season. Turns out there have been 79 seasons of 500+ outs, but involving only 55 players.
Bobby Richardson, Dave Cash and Jimmy Rollins lead the way with 4 such seasons. Jose Reyes (3), Juan Pierre (2) and Alfonso Soriano (2) are other active players with more than one season.
Could this be the year Rollins becomes the undisputed all-time outs champion? Probably not. He's on pace now for around 465 or so outs, so he'd have to really go into a signifcant slump to threaten 500. He is drawing noticeably more walks now than in earlier years, so that is helping. We'll see what transpires the rest of the way.
August 13th, 2011 at 5:52 am
Wow! This Dan Uggla story is getting fun to watch.
August 13th, 2011 at 10:56 am
Pitchers not even being able to throw inside anymore is wrong. They have lost too much power. What's next? Lowering the mound more? Throwing underhand? Telling the hitter what they're going to throw?
August 13th, 2011 at 11:15 am
9 Agreed.Everything is in the batters favor.Pitchers are afraid to even pitch inside.Zambrano is an ass but this issue needs to be worked on.
August 13th, 2011 at 11:33 am
With their 20th consecutive solo home run, the Giants broke a tie with the 1914 Phillies.
Gives a new meaning to "Home Alone".
August 13th, 2011 at 11:59 am
9 and 10, as to pitching inside, I think the "warning" system is an invitation to take the first shot. And often the second shot. I'd rather see it dispensed with and stiffer penalties for headhunting instituted instead.
August 13th, 2011 at 12:15 pm
Omar the Out Maker MOreno
August 13th, 2011 at 12:34 pm
Cracks in the foundation... beginning of the end for the Houston Astros.
August 13th, 2011 at 1:34 pm
As for walking Ethier to face Kemp. The catcher didn't actually signal for the intentional until the count was 3-1. Since Eugenio Velez was batting after Kemp late in the game, it appeared they were willing to dismiss the platoon advantage in the hopes of retiring Ethier and walking Kemp
August 13th, 2011 at 1:47 pm
Sometimes the number of at-bats it takes for 500 outs can also result in a large number of hits. From your list of players with multiple 500 out seasons, Richardson, Cash with 2, Rollins, Reyes, Pierre, Soriano all had seasons with 200 Hits/ 500 outs and these guys represent 7 out of the 10 times that's been done. Rollins, Reyes with 2 and Soriano were above 190 four times with the lowest batting average 0.273. So these players represent 11 of the 23 times, a player went 190 or more out of the 79 times since 1901. That leaves 12 seasons for 49 other players.
Moreno had 196 hits in one of his 3 seasons with 500 outs, with the WS winning Pirates in 1979. He had his career highs by far in BA and hits that year. The next year he set the record for 550 outs.
August 13th, 2011 at 2:31 pm
@16
A large number of hits are the inevitable result of having a TON of at-bats and not knowing when to stop swinging. Bobby Richardson is the perfect example of why "not making an out" should be the goal... NOT getting hits.
In a four year stretch between 1961 and 1964 Bobby Richardson was the leadoff hitter for the Yankees. They went to the WS each season and during that span Richardson averaged an impressive 182 hits a season. But he also averaged 666 at bats a season (leading the league 3 times) and only managed 30 walks a year. All told his OBP was a disgustingly low .305.
Consider this: During these four years he didn't manage to score 100 runs in any season. And before someone says, "Well, he scored 99 in 1962." I will say, "He scored only 80 in 1961 with Mickey Mantle and Roger Maris hitting after him." How is that even possible?
August 13th, 2011 at 3:03 pm
Tacking on to Thomas's point -- The '61 Yankees got 90 runs from the leadoff spot (7th in the AL) and 87 from the #2 spot (9th). That was one of the reasons Bill James argued in the BJHBA that the '61 Yanks were not a historically great team, despite winning 109 games.
August 13th, 2011 at 4:20 pm
I had mentioned something like this at Patrick Flood's Mets blog yesterday. I was comparing batters faced to plate appearances, and along the way discovered that Rollins has been racking up plate appearances at an historic pace - he has the all-time single-season record with 778, and his 162-game average is 748, which is sky-high. Even Jeter has fewer than that, and he's been hitting leadoff or second in a prodigiously-stacked lineup for nearly his whole career.. Reyes has the fifth- and seventh-most PA in a season, and also averages 748 PA/162.
Most alarming if you're fans of NL East shortstops, they average a truly astounding number of outs/162. Rollins is at 520 outs per, and Reyes at 517, which seem like typos. By comparison, Pete Rose averaged 721 PA/162 games (and he's the only guy with five seasons at 750+ PA), and never reached 500 outs in a year even once. Ichiro's 162-game averages are 747 PA and 484 outs. Juan Pierre is at 694 PA and 484 outs. (So if anyone asks, Ichiro is 53 productive plate appearances better than Juan Pierre, on average, per season.)
August 13th, 2011 at 4:52 pm
@15, PJ -- Thanks for the details on the IBB to Ethier. I forgot to check the pitch-by-pitch. Pitching him carefully, and then making it intentional after a 3-1 count, sounds like good strategy.
August 13th, 2011 at 5:01 pm
@19, Nightfly, re: last sentence -- OK, but who's comparing Ichiro to Pierre? And drawing a bright line between "productive plate appearances" (i.e., times on base) and outs is oversimplifying a bit, especially when it comes to Ichiro. True, getting on base vs. making an out is the most important measure of a PA. But Ichiro's times on base are less productive in terms of advancing other runners than almost anyone but Pierre, certainly less so than those NL East shortstops, because of his very low XBH rate and huge number of infield hits.
In a potent lineup, I would rather have Ichiro leading off than Jimmy Rollins, because of his OBP edge. But in an average or worse lineup, I'll take Rollins, because he's better at advancing other runners (note his huge RBI lead over Ichiro, despite playing in the NL), as well as getting himself into scoring position.
August 13th, 2011 at 6:40 pm
I'm shocked Timothy P had nothing to say about Zambrano.
***
I say good for [Chipper Jones] in knowing it wasn't time to hang them up, despite all the the talk last year that he should do exactly that.
Were others saying he should? I thought it was Chipper's idea to retire, and he reconsidered after tearing his ACL(?) because he didn't want to end like that.
***
Curtis Granderson 2.0 was unveiled on August 12, 2010. In the next calendar year, these were his numbers:
162 G, .271/.364/.577, 24 2B, 10 3B, 46 HR, 127 RBI, 132 R.
August 13th, 2011 at 8:08 pm
@17 You are correct.
The #1 and #2 batting slots for the 1961 Yankees had under 0.300 OBP. Richardson batted leadoff in 117 games with a 0.297 OBP. The Yankees scored 177 runs (11 HR) in the first two batting positions and were 10th in the league in OBP at both positions.
Richardson had 1 of the 10 rare seasons where someone gets 200 hits and 500 outs, in 1962.
Richardson had 209 hits in 1962, his only year over 181, and he batted 2nd in 116 games (74 runs, OBP 0.343). The top 2 slots accounted for 217 runs (34 HR). A 40 run increase is more significant when you consider Maris and Mantle went from 118 homers to 63. A significant factor was that the OBP for the first two slots went from 0.290 to 0.330.
1962 was an unusual year for Richardson, his best by far. 1963 and 1964, when he batted primarily 2nd, were closer to his 1961 numbers.
August 13th, 2011 at 8:25 pm
In his past 5 seasons, Cain has never gotten more than 3.9 runs of support per 27 outs while he's been in the game. His career rate of 3.6 is a full run below the league average over that time. Teammate Tim Lincecum has gotten at least 4.2 (and at least 4.5 over the full games in which he has pitched) every season until this one, and his career support is close to league average. They're both slightly below-average hitters. Reminiscent of Juan Marichal and Gaylord Perry.
Occassionally two pitchers who are teammates for a long time have wildly divergent run support. I named this phenomenon Marichal-Perry Syndrome. From 1964-71 Marichal's run support was equivilant to the career run support of Allie Reynolds. For those same years Gaylord Perry had run support reminiscent of Phil Niekro's career mark. That's right -- the same line-up would hit like the Stengal Yanks for one guy, and the Ted Turner Braves for another. From memory, Spalding, Raschi, ALlie Reynolds, and Don Newcombe were the only pitchers with better run support than Marichal. Marichal loses over 20 twenty wins with the RSI W/L adjustment.
http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/files/hall_of_merit/discussion/juan_marichal/
http://web.archive.org/web/20050207042253/http://runsupportindex.blogspot.com/
August 13th, 2011 at 8:40 pm
@22, JT, re: Granderson's calendar year --
That's interesting. There have only been 17 prior seasons in modern history with a BA of .266-.276 and isolated power of .300 or better. Granderson hardly fits the type:
http://www.baseball-reference.com/play-index/share.cgi?id=Qz4jR
I don't make anything of it; just seems interesting.
August 13th, 2011 at 8:49 pm
@22 Zambrano is still awesome
August 13th, 2011 at 9:34 pm
Thanks JA/25, you're right, he does sort of stand out on that list. I remember earlier in the season you mentioned he seemed to have become a less interesting or entertaining player. Well, he does lead the AL with 9 triples, and with 22 SB is on pace to top his career high. Probably not matching the 23-3B entertainment of '07, but he's no longer in Comerica. Still a fun guy to watch. His homer today was el cheapo, however.
August 13th, 2011 at 9:35 pm
23-triple
sorry, that looks better
August 13th, 2011 at 10:00 pm
vacationing in Chicago right now (Comic Con- 1 more day!!) and, so, I have to wonder, how did the baseball gods ever let Zambrano wind up on the Cubs, instead of the White Sox?? He seems like a perfect fit for Ozzie's dysfunctional crew.......
I would pay 10000 (Monopoly) dollars to listen in on the conversation, if/when Ozzie came out to the mound, to pull Z from a game. (Of course, beings that my rules stipulate, that I get reimbursed 500$ for every "F bomb", I'd probably come out ahead....would be a nice down payment on Park Place, maybe??)
August 13th, 2011 at 10:17 pm
23 Managers (most of them) didn't know how to make a lineup.Brooklyn used Billy Cox in the 2 spot on a team that featured Snider,Robinson,Campanella,Hodges,and Furillo.Robinson batted cleanup.
August 13th, 2011 at 10:32 pm
@5 Doug:
I was one of those fans that gave Wells a standing ovation. He was a great person for the city of Toronto, doing a lot of good. He tries hard, but isn't getting a lot of results. I wish him better success, but not until Monday.
August 14th, 2011 at 12:27 am
@29, Nash Bruce -- I hope you're having a blast at Comic Con. My next-door neighbor went to the big one in San Diego recently, came back with a Captain America shield -- his 4th. Now I know why he never parks a car in his 2-car garage ... My 16-year-old stepson is saving his shekels for the NYC Comic Con, so he can go every day this time instead of just 3 days like last year. Not my bag, but it seems like a great time for aficionados.
August 14th, 2011 at 12:30 am
@27, JT -- I never meant any knock on Granderson, though -- I'm just a big fan of seasons like George Brett's '79 and Granderson's 2007.
August 14th, 2011 at 12:45 am
@John Autin - it didn't start out as an Ichiro/Pierre comparison! I was just pulling the numbers on folks who get a huge number of plate appearances, and seeing that they averaged the same number of outs with a relatively large discrepancy in their PA prompted my offhand comment.
I also agree about Rollins and Reyes being valuable in a different way than Ichiro because of their superior power. It helps that they lose little in terms of speed vs. Ichiro as well (especially Reyes).
August 14th, 2011 at 1:45 am
@32 JA: I am not an 'afficianado' by any means, I've never had the time, nor the money, to get so deeply involved- but I do appreciate the energy behind it all. My best friend (who, ironically, was born in Chicago, and has family there) is an artist, and he was/is showing his first comic book there this weekend.....This week has been good on so many levels 😀
Back on topic. After ~n~ drinks,(ahem) I just now saw, that Z was placed on the 'Disqualified' list, by the Cubs. (My artist friend, who is by no means a baseball fan, commented, "well, hasn't he sucked for awhile now??")
So, I'm curious- which evil superhero does this make Z? And, who would be his arch-nemesis?
(I'd nominate "Zambrano" as Zambrano's arch-nemesis...but I still wish that the Twins had picked him up somehow.)
August 14th, 2011 at 7:45 am
@35 My artist friend Not that there's anything wrong with that!
August 14th, 2011 at 12:03 pm
Cain's run support numbers are more like Nolan Ryan. 200 of his career losses were when his team scored two or fewer runs (2/3 of his total losses, over 1/3 of his total games). 3.8 run support.
August 14th, 2011 at 1:26 pm
@36: ~smirks~ his wife and kid are here with him also 😉
August 15th, 2011 at 9:29 pm
@ 21 JA
You say (semi-quote) "Rollins, as a leadoff hitter has superior RBI #'s despite hitting in the NL..."
I'd argue that a NL leadoff hitter might have more RBI chances than his AL counterpart because, if there is someone on, the pitcher usually moves them up a base, no?
August 15th, 2011 at 11:40 pm
@40, Duke -- The pitcher "usually" moves them up? My gut says that's a drastic overstatement -- and in any case, every study will show that getting on base is far more important than moving runners up.
The OBP for NL pitchers this year is .179. All the sac bunts in the world aren't overcoming the crimp that puts in an NL leadoff man's RBI chances.