Random Recap for Friday, June 3
Posted by John Autin on June 4, 2011
Arizona 4, Washington 0: It's Joshua Collmenter's world; we just get to read his box scores. Collmenter stymied the Nats on 3 hits over 7 IP tonight, his 3rd scoreless start of 6+ IP in 5 games since joining Arizona's rotation May 14. All other D-backs pitchers combined have 4 such starts all year. The native of Homer, MI has a 1.23 ERA as a SP, 1.25 overall.
- Collmenter wasn't perfect, though; he issued a walk, raising his season rate to 0.83 BB/9 (4 walks in 43.1 IP).
Brewers 6, Marlins 5: Ryan Braun the Greater (will Sean's nickname catch on?) hit a 2-run HR in the 9th off Leo Nunez, who suffered his 2nd blown save in about a week after starting the year with 18 straight conversions. John Axford walked the bases loaded in the bottom half, but struck out "B Hayes" to end it. (Apparently that's not Blimp Hayes, but Brett Hayes.)
- Mike Stanton hit his 13th HR of the year for Florida, and is moving up into some very fast company. Stanton, who won't turn 22 until November, has 35 HRs in 603 career PAs and 152 games over 2 seasons. Another 20 HRs or so this year would push him well into the top-20 for HRs in the first 2 seasons (led by Joe DiMaggio's 75) and into the top-10 for HRs through age 21. At his current season pace, Stanton would hit 25 more HRs this year, giving him 60 at age 21; only 6 players have ever reached that mark so young. (Mel Ott, Tony Conigliaro, Eddie Mathews, Frank Robinson, Alex Rodriguez, Junior Griffey.)
Blue Jays 8, Orioles 4: Toronto moved back over .500. Baltimore is 10th in the AL scoring at just under 4 runs per game. One factor is the 1st inning: They've scored just 9 1st-inning runs in 55 games, about 1/3 of the MLB median. (The Yankees have scored 44 runs in the 1st.) The O's have batted .195 with 1 HR in the initial stanza; their biggest opening salvo was 2 runs, done just once. Their leadoff men have a .284 OBP; their #3 hitters have hit .234 with a .317 SLG and 17 RBI. (Batter stats through Thursday.)
Texas 11, Cleveland 2: Alexi Ogando, a converted OF who had made just 3 pro starts before this year, took a 2.33 ERA and MLB-best 0.91 WHIP into tonight's start, his 11th of the year, then held Cleveland to 1 run in 8 IP and ran his record to 6-0. Cleveland fell to 19-8 at home.
Pirates 2, Phillies 1 (12 innings): The first meeting of the year for these cross-state rivals became the 14th game of exactly 12 innings this year. The Phillies have won at least 85 games every year since 2003, while the Pirates have lost at least 87 each year (and usually 95+). Yet with tonight's win, the Pirates are 24-26 against the Phils since 2003.
- Cole Hamels had 2 hits in 3 AB; the rest of the lineup went 4 for 37.
Giants 3, Rockies 1: If there's such a thing as a "one true outcome" hitter, that man is Emmanuel Burriss of SF. Burriss had 3 singles in 4 trips tonight, giving him 13 hits in 39 AB this year, a .333 BA -- which is also his OBP and his SLG. Among all active players with at least 500 career PAs, Burriss has the lowest isolated power (SLG minus BA); he has 12 doubles, 1 triple and 1 HR in 485 AB, with 37 walks.
So, what did I miss by getting my game stories entirely from the box scores? Did someone run through a wall to make a catch? Did someone double into a double play? Did anyone steal home? Let's hear what you noticed tonight.
June 4th, 2011 at 3:43 am
The no longer power-starved Mariners bagged 3 homers tonight (after four yesterday) as Jason Vargas tossed a 4 hit shutout, his first complete game since his rookie season in 2005. Seattle moved to 3 games over .500, their high-water mark for the season.
Justin Smoak homered for the second game in a row to raise his total to 9 for the year. He has a very pretty swing - powerful, compact and silky smooth. Looking like a very nice pickup for the Mariners in the Cliff Lee trade last year.
J.P. Arencibia also homered for the 9th time in the Jays win. It was his first career grand slam.
June 4th, 2011 at 9:32 am
Last night Joey Devine gets a hold and the loss?
Can we please do away with that silly stat.
June 4th, 2011 at 9:57 am
Chipper Jones continued to beat up on the Mets Friday night with a classic big fly solo home run onto the third deck club level in the eighth inning. It was Chipper's 46th career shot in his 219th game against the Mets moving him into fourth on the list ahead of Hank Aaron who hit 45 in 188 games. Chipper's immediately behind and may well catch Willie McCovey who really enjoyed Mets pitching hitting his 48 in only 192 games and Mike Schmidt who hit 49 in 268 games. Willie Stargell who hit 60 in 248 games is likely to remain the leader for a while. The active player with a realistic shot of catching Pops is Ryan Howard who has 31 in his 104 games.
In contrast Eric Hinske's homer in the ninth putting the Braves in front was only his second against the Mets and his first at Citi Field.
Braves closer Craig Kimbrel set a rookie record for saves before the All Star Break with his 17th. John Paplebon has the major league record with 26 in 2006.
Jose Reyes leads the majors in hits with 79; His 17 doubles is second - or I guess 7th since their are 6 players with 18 currently tied for first - on the doubles list and his disputed triple (replays clearly showed it was a badly missed call) brought his major league leading total to 9.
June 4th, 2011 at 11:36 am
Can we please do away with that silly stat.
Which one?
June 4th, 2011 at 2:59 pm
Holds. IMO, holds should require the pitcher to record the final out of at least one inning, and not leave the go-ahead run on base or the tying run in scoring position (to avoid this kind of stuff.)
June 4th, 2011 at 3:36 pm
Agree with you on the holds. BTW, really haven't heard any hype on Collmenter, but boy can he pitch. I see he was drafted by Zona in the 2007 amateur draft, but where did he come from?
June 4th, 2011 at 4:16 pm
@3, Fred -- No denying that Chipper has hurt the Mets deeply over the years, with a .981 OPS. But on a per-game basis, the Mets are not his favorite patsy.
Of the teams against whom he's played at least 50 games, Chipper's highest OPS is 1.045 vs. the Phillies; in about the same number of games as against the Mets, he has 1 less HR, far more doubles and a much higher OBP. He also has a higher OPS against the Rockies (1.030 in 117 games) and Brewers (1.016 in 78 games) than against the Mets, with much better HR rates against both those teams.
http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/split.cgi?id=jonesch06&year=Career&t=b
"Chipper loves to hit against the Mets" is the kind of storyline that, once established, can only be confirmed by further developments, not negated. Every HR is "there he goes again." In reality, he hasn't done that much better against the Mets than his overall career rates, and his last big year against them was 2003.
June 4th, 2011 at 5:13 pm
I wonder if Braun's .57 WPA is the highest this year for 1 pinch hit at-bat?
June 4th, 2011 at 6:09 pm
@8, Topper009 -- Great question. The answer is, not quite -- his teammate Casey McGehee earned a .601 WPA on April 10, doing virtually the same as Braun (2-run HR in the top of the 9th leading to a 6-5 win), but with 2 out.
BTW, it was Braun's 3rd pinch-hit in 7 career AB in that role, all for extra bases -- 2 doubles, 1 HR, 4 RBI, 1.643 OPS. Also, he's 3 for 3 in his career against Nunez.
And I feel bad for not seeing that Braun's HR last night came in the pinch. Ach!
June 4th, 2011 at 6:24 pm
@JA & Fred,
I swear this is true - Chipper named his daughter Shea, supposedly because the Mets' old home -Shea Stadium (btw, lifelong NYer & Met fan and thought it a disgusting embarrassing dump) was his favorite place to hit.
He and Mike Piazza had a semi-friendly press fight in the late 90's. Piazza insisted on calling Chipper by his first name, Lawrence. And Chipper never took a road trip to NY without bringing up his fondness for butchering the Mets and his daughter's name.
But I agree with John, that the big media market and the inter-division rivalry is what truly made it seem Jones owned the Mets. Although his hits seemed more timely, but I rarely saw him hit outside of Met games, so I can't say he was more 'clutch' at Shea.
June 4th, 2011 at 6:35 pm
JA, nice find with McGehee, cant believe I forgot that one. Im pretty sure it happened in the bottom of the 8th however...since I was at that game. It happened against the Rival Cubs for the series win so it was pretty sweet.
Not exactly sure why it is worth more than Braun's since it happened in the 8th instead of the 9th, but I was thinking since the tying run was on 2nd for McGehee it was a higher leverage situation because he just needed a single to tie it up, whereas Braun last night had the tying run on 1st.
June 4th, 2011 at 8:40 pm
JA, nice idea to ask readers to add to the nightly recap.
@2
Duke, do you want to introduce the "blown" hold stat? Sure agree that Fuentes got the short end of the statistical stick in last night's game.
I'm not ready yo give up on the hold yet although the Oakland game is a poster child for all that's wrong with it.
June 4th, 2011 at 9:27 pm
Imo, it's a shame that the Bucs and Phils - in the same state and same league - have only played each other 50 times since 2003. How many times have the Yankees and Red Sox played each other in that time?
June 4th, 2011 at 9:29 pm
There already is a blown hold stat. It's a blown save.
June 4th, 2011 at 9:53 pm
@14
JT either you're too clever for me or you're having me on (or both).
Devine screws up, but leaves with his team still ahead on the scoreboard. Thus a hold. Fuentes enters the game, gives up Devine's earned runs and gets charged with a blown save. Devine gets one negative relief stat, the loss and one positive, the hold.
What am I missing here? How is a blown save the same as a (hypothetical)
blown hold?
June 4th, 2011 at 10:41 pm
Because the hold is based on a save. Devine entered in a save situation, and left with the safe situation intact. Therefore, it's a hold. If he had given up the lead, it would be a blown save (and a blown hold).
I didn't see the game but it seems like he didn't pitch well. Nevertheless, he still had the lead when he was taken out. Fuentes just had to retire the next batter to clear the inning. Maybe it's a cheap hold, but there are cheap saves and cheap wins as well. Should we get rid of those stats too? I've seen cheap homers, why not eliminate those?
If one thinks holds are worthless, ignore them. How are you being harmed by their existence? Are a lot of setup men taking money out of your pocket by piling up cheap holds? I doubt it.
June 4th, 2011 at 11:00 pm
JT,
I think you are taking it a little far there. I'm not saying there are not 'cheap' wins, hits, etc, but it seems counter intuitive to be credited with holding a game that you also loose.
I can't hold a carton of eggs and also drop them.
I know the language of the stat, but can't you not be contrary just this once.
The only play or ruling I can think of, that is equally contradictory, is catcher's interference. A hit and an error.
I get it, I just don't think you should be given credit for a stat that essentially declares you assisted in a win, but not only does your team loose but you are credited with the loss.
June 4th, 2011 at 11:08 pm
@16
Ahhh, gotcha.
I don't have a problem with holds. They are an attempt to measure (imperfectly) effective mid-relief/set up.
June 4th, 2011 at 11:40 pm
@14 @16
I had to go check the fine print in the definition of a save, JT, but you are absolutely right. A blown save is a blown hold. I somehow thought you had to enter in the seventh inning or later to be credited with a save. Not so.
Although 3+ inning saves are rare, they are possible.
June 5th, 2011 at 2:01 am
Duke, sorry, I'm not intending to be contradictory.
I think there are a lot of people who don't know how the stat is awarded, so I'm partly just trying to explain it to them.
If you wanted to change the definition of a hold, so that anyone who takes a loss can't get one, I'm not gonna fight you. I just figure the stat is what it is. It's not perfect, but if you show me the list of guys with 25+ holds in a season, I'm pretty sure they did a good job that year.
FWIW, I see that since 1950, there are 126 games in which a pitcher got both a hold and a loss, and yet managed positive WPA, i.e., ostensibly helped his team win. I have't looked at the boxscores yet but go for it if you like.
June 5th, 2011 at 10:15 am
At risk of belaboring the hold discussion, one of my problems with the hold is that there is no upper limit to how many can be awarded in one game.
The maximum number of holds in data-available baseball history is 6, accomplished twice, followed by 17-five hold games.
http://bbref.com/pi/shareit/mnyMi
What would it take for the hold to become an official MLB stat? A Jerome Holtzman to champion it?
June 5th, 2011 at 10:21 am
@21, Neil L.: "What would it take for the hold to become an official MLB stat? A Jerome Holtzman to champion it?"
Seems more likely that a Scott Boras would champion it.
June 5th, 2011 at 5:28 pm
@22
JA, what are you saying? Scott Boras is more influential now than Jerome Holtzman in Chicago in his time?
An agent more influential than a writer? What has happened to baseball?
I am kidding ..... sort of! 🙁
June 6th, 2011 at 12:31 am
there are 126 games in which a pitcher got both a hold and a loss, and yet managed positive WPA, i.e., ostensibly helped his team win.
Here's one recent example. On 6/28/05, Andy Sisco entered for the Royals in the bottom of the 6th with a 1-run lead, 1 out, and runners on 1st and 3rd. A save (hold) situation. He induced a double play (a line drive, but no matter) to escape the inning. Big WPA swing right there. In the 7th, he got one out, then walked two batters and was removed from the game. The following reliever (Leo Nunez) allowed both baserunners to score, plus one of his own. Sisco gets a hold. Nunez gets the blown save. Due to the vagaries of scoring, Sisco is charged with 2 runs although they scored when another pitcher was in the game, and thus he gets the loss.
Sisco inherited one jam and got out of it. He left a slightly smaller jam for another pitcher, who made it worse. The team lost, Sisco happens to be the guy who is credited with the decision, but he obviously wasn't most responsible for the loss. His WPA for the game was +.175. Sisco may have been a little lucky, getting a line drive DP, but he got KC one inning closer to victory and left a better situation than he found. I have no problem with him getting a hold, despite "losing" the game.
http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/MIN/MIN200506280.shtml
June 6th, 2011 at 1:56 am
One odd thing about the M's game: those seven runs scored on only four hits. Could one of the subscribers maybe follow up on that and see how often a team has managed to score seven runs on four hits or less?
June 6th, 2011 at 2:28 am
35 times since 1919. Median number of walks drawn was 7.
Most extreme games: In 1925, the Browns scored 11 runs on 4 hits (and 8 walks). In 1994, Oakland scored 8 runs on 2 hits (and 12 walks).
June 6th, 2011 at 11:03 am
@23, Neil L. -- Actually, I wasn't alluding to Boras's influence so much as expressing doubt that a writer (or anyone else without a direct financial stake in the matter) would take up the banner of holds as Holtzman did with saves.
While I wouldn't say that all baseball writers have grown cynical about the value of saves, I do think that most of them are aware of how the stat has taken over the strategy, and wouldn't want to risk being associated with another such muddle.
I would not support recognizing the current definition of "Hold" as an official stat. However, if the definition were changed to focus on high-leverage situations -- and especially if it included preserving a tie score -- I think I could get behind it.
June 6th, 2011 at 1:18 pm
Doesn't surprise me of the Orioles' terrible first inning numbers - good observation.
Their regular leadoff man Brian Roberts is constantly injured - I think he is made out of glass or papier mache. When he was healthy, Roberts hit .280/.290 and walked a lot but usually was hung out to dry. Robert Andino has been hitting leadoff for the most part, or Felix Pie. Neither have great OBP.
The second man is supposed to be Nick Markakis, who has usually been hitting 3rd due to injury to Derek Lee. Markakis is also off to a terrible start, the .290/.300 hitter was down closer to .240 most of the first 2 months.
Derek Lee when healthy also hadn't been hitting much while usually batting third with Roberts out, I think he was in the .230's before the injury. Now he's back.
I think the Orioles have a serious problem with Roberts, who cannot stay healthy. They don't have a viable backup to play 2B full time and no one on the team is reliable at getting on base - something that would kinda help for a leadoff hitter. They have some power guys who can provide the dynamite, but have trouble lighting the fuse.
June 6th, 2011 at 9:57 pm
@28
Kevin, nice post!
I have a question for Orioles' observers, assuming you are one. How does Jeremy Guthrie end up with a 2-8 record this season (leading the AL in losses) with his kind ot stats and stuff?