Verlander’s hot streaks & cool season

Posted by John Autin on July 8, 2011

B-R blogger Raphy posted recently about Justin Verlander's long streak of 100-pitch games.

But here are some other streaks and things Verlander has going this year:

6 straight starts of 7+ innings and no more than 1 run allowed.
8 straight starts of 7+ IP and no more than 2 runs allowed.
18 Quality Starts in 19 games.

Taking them one at a time, and with some historical perspective....

1. Verlander has 6 straight starts of 7+ innings allowing no more than 1 run.

It's the 6th streak of that quality and duration in the last 20 years, and the 1st since 2005. It's one shy of the longest in that span, which was done just once. And it ties the longest such streak in the AL in the DH era.

6 straight games of 7+ IP and <= 1 run allowed, 1992-2011:

Rk		Strk Start	End	Games	W	L	CG	SHO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR	ERA	HBP	WP	BK	Tm
1	Chris Carpenter	2005-06-14	2005-07-22	7	6	0	3	3	59.2	28	3	3	9	57	2	0.45	0	0	0	STL

2	Justin Verlander	2011-06-09	2011-07-05	6	5	1	2	1	48.2	29	4	4	7	55	2	0.74	2	1	0	DET
3	Johan Santana	2004-08-23	2004-09-19	6	6	0	0	0	44.0	23	2	2	4	58	1	0.41	1	1	0	MIN
4	Cory Lidle	2002-08-04	2002-08-31	6	5	0	1	1	45.1	23	2	1	8	29	0	0.20	0	0	0	OAK
5	Andy Benes	1998-08-27	1998-09-27	6	3	1	0	0	46.1	26	3	3	11	40	1	0.58	0	0	0	ARI
6	Tim Wakefield	1993-09-26	1995-06-09	6	6	0	4	2	51.1	25	3	2	15	23	0	0.35	4	3	0	PIT-BOS

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 7/8/2011.

(The oddest streak on that list was by Tim Wakefield, probably the only pitcher ever released outright while riding a consecutive shutout streak in the majors.)

A.L. Pitchers in DH Era (1973-2011) -- 6 straight games of 7+ IP and <= 1 run allowed:

Rk		Strk Start	End	Games	W	L	CG	SHO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR	ERA	HBP	WP	BK	Tm
1	Justin Verlander	2011-06-09	2011-07-05	6	5	1	2	1	48.2	29	4	4	7	55	2	0.74	2	1	0	DET
2	Johan Santana	2004-08-23	2004-09-19	6	6	0	0	0	44.0	23	2	2	4	58	1	0.41	1	1	0	MIN
3	Cory Lidle	2002-08-04	2002-08-31	6	5	0	1	1	45.1	23	2	1	8	29	0	0.20	0	0	0	OAK
4	Dave Stieb	1988-09-13	1989-04-10	6	5	0	4	4	51.0	17	2	2	13	29	0	0.35	3	0	1	TOR
5	Jim Palmer	1978-05-20	1978-06-10	6	5	0	4	4	50.1	29	2	1	13	20	0	0.18	0	0	0	BAL

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 7/8/2011.

(Stieb's streak includes his famous back-to-back near-no-hitters, each broken up with 2 out in the 9th.)

2. Verlander has 8 straight starts of 7+ IP allowing 2 runs or less.

It's the 10th such streak in the last 20 years, also one shy of the longest (done twice).

8 straight games of 7+ IP and <= 2 runs allowed, 1992-2011:

Rk		Strk Start	End	Games	W	L	CG	SHO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR	ERA	HBP	WP	BK	Tm
1	Johan Santana	2004-06-09	2004-07-22	9	6	2	1	1	70.0	29	12	11	15	94	7	1.41	3	2	0	MIN
2	Randy Johnson	1999-06-25	1999-08-06	9	2	5	5	1	73.0	52	12	11	17	105	5	1.36	3	1	0	ARI

3	Justin Verlander	2011-05-29	2011-07-05	8	7	1	2	1	64.1	40	6	6	10	65	3	0.84	3	1	0	DET
4	Cliff Lee	2009-07-16	2009-08-24	8	8	0	4	0	65.0	46	10	7	6	53	2	0.97	1	1	0	CLE-PHI
5	Justin Duchscherer	2008-06-11	2008-07-20	8	5	2	1	1	61.1	36	10	10	11	32	5	1.47	1	0	0	OAK
6	Johan Santana	2004-08-12	2004-09-19	8	8	0	0	0	58.0	35	5	5	7	71	2	0.78	1	3	0	MIN
7	Matt Morris	2001-04-11	2001-05-17	8	6	1	1	1	59.0	43	11	10	13	47	3	1.53	4	1	1	STL
8	Randy Johnson	1998-08-22	1999-04-05	8	7	0	2	2	61.1	40	9	9	24	89	3	1.32	3	0	0	HOU-ARI
9	Roger Clemens	1997-06-21	1997-07-28	8	5	2	3	1	64.2	43	5	5	13	78	2	0.70	2	0	0	TOR
10	Tom Candiotti	1993-07-18	1993-08-25	8	5	0	1	0	61.1	47	12	9	17	43	4	1.32	1	1	0	LAD

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 7/8/2011.

Verlander has the only 2011 streak on this list; the only repeaters are Randy Johnson and Johan Santana. (BTW, it's nice to see knucklers Wakefield and Tom Candiotti on these lists. Do knuckleballers tend to be streakier than normal pitchers?)

3. Verlander has 18 quality starts in 19 games.

That's one more QS than Weaver, and puts him on track for 32 QS in 34 starts (rounding down on both figures). No pitcher in the past 20 years has posted more than 30 quality starts, and only 3 reached 30 QS: Felix Hernandez (2010), Randy Johnson ('02) and Greg Maddux ('92). Going all the way back to 1980, the only pitchers with more than 30 QS were Dwight Gooden (33 in 1985), Mike Scott (32 in 1986) and Steve Carlton (32 in 1980); Bret Saberhagen also had 30 ('89).

Do those particular years sound familiar? The last 7 pitchers with at least 30 quality starts in a season won the Cy Young Award for that season:

Rk	Player	QS	Year	Age	Tm	Lg	G	GS	CG	SHO	W	L	W-L%	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	ERA	ERA+	HR	BF	AB	2B	3B	IBB	HBP	SH	SF	GDP	SB	CS	PO	BK	WP	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	Pit	Str
1	Dwight Gooden	33	1985	20	NYM	NL	35	35	16	8	24	4	.857	276.2	198	51	47	69	268	1.53	229	13	1065	986	23	3	4	2	6	2	21	22	10	5	2	6	.201	.254	.270	.524
2	Mike Scott	32	1986	31	HOU	NL	37	37	7	5	18	10	.643	275.1	182	73	68	72	306	2.22	161	17	1065	976	41	5	6	2	8	6	11	41	12	2	0	3	.186	.242	.291	.533
3	Steve Carlton	32	1980	35	PHI	NL	38	38	13	3	24	9	.727	304.0	243	87	79	90	286	2.34	162	15	1228	1114	50	13	12	2	14	8	14	14	16	9	7	17	.218	.276	.327	.603
4	Felix Hernandez	30	2010	24	SEA	AL	34	34	6	1	13	12	.520	249.2	194	80	63	70	232	2.27	174	17	1001	914	34	3	1	8	6	3	25	15	5	0	1	14	.212	.273	.312	.585	3731	2412
5	Randy Johnson	30	2002	38	ARI	NL	35	35	8	4	24	5	.828	260.0	197	78	67	71	334	2.32	197	26	1035	945	42	5	1	13	4	2	19	19	15	3	2	3	.208	.273	.346	.619	3991	2620
6	Greg Maddux	30	1992	26	CHC	NL	35	35	9	4	20	11	.645	268.0	201	68	65	70	199	2.18	166	7	1061	959	36	5	7	14	15	3	19	26	13	1	0	5	.210	.272	.279	.552
7	Bret Saberhagen	30	1989	25	KCR	AL	36	35	12	4	23	6	.793	262.1	209	74	63	43	193	2.16	180	13	1021	961	45	6	6	2	9	6	13	5	9	3	1	8	.217	.251	.317	.568

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 7/8/2011.

The AL Cy Young race so far looks like a duel between Verlander and Weaver, who are virtually tied for the MLB pitchers' WAR crown with 4.9 each. No Tiger has won either Cy Young or MVP since Willie Hernandez snagged them both in 1984. But there's still a long way to go; any number of popular favorites and dark horses could still make a run. And for a reminder of how much the CYA race can change in the 2nd half, just take a look at the 1st-half stats of Ubaldo Jimenez last year; he wound up 3rd in the CYA vote.

Verlander is scheduled to pitch Sunday in Kansas City, which would make him ineligible for the All-Star Game. But perhaps he'll give us his own All-Star performance Sunday; he's beaten the Royals more than any other team in his career, with an 11-2 record and 2.47 ERA in 17 starts. (And don't miss Verlander's record in interleague games!)

This entry was posted on Friday, July 8th, 2011 at 6:00 pm and is filed under Uncategorized. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. Both comments and pings are currently closed.

23 Responses to “Verlander’s hot streaks & cool season”

Mustachioed Repetition Says:
July 8th, 2011 at 6:47 pm
The last 7 pitchers with at least 30 quality starts in a season won the Cy Young Award

Unpossible! Quality starts just mean you're a 4.50 ERA pitcher.

Interesting stuff JA. I'm surprised the top streaks for 7 IP/1 R are so brief.
Joe Garrison Says:
July 8th, 2011 at 9:03 pm
Of course you mean NO WORSE THAN a 4.50 ERA pitcher...
John Autin Says:
July 8th, 2011 at 9:05 pm
@1, M.R. -- I had the same reaction about the 7 IP/1 R streaks. Going all the way back to 1968 brings in just 2 streaks longer than 7 games -- Bob Gibson had an 11-game streak in '68, and J.R. Richard had 8 straight in '79.

The only factors that come to me right away to explain why there weren't longer streaks like this in the '60s and '70 are:
-- SPs in the '70s and before tended to go deeper into games (though most of the more recent streaks averaged 8+ IP); and
-- Into the '70s, it was common for a SP to go extra innings, often until he gave up another run. I think this would tend to diminish the effect of advantageous pitching conditions. And of course, no one goes past 9 IP any more.

But in the end, I guess the main factor is that it's just really hard to pitch that well for that many games in a row.
John Autin Says:
July 8th, 2011 at 9:05 pm
@2, Joe -- If you searched M.R.'s cheek, you'd find his tongue lodged firmly therein.
Neil L. Says:
July 8th, 2011 at 9:28 pm
JA, four lists and a lot of statistics to respond to ...... and on a Friday night no less.

I'm a little confused, JA. The heading with your first list says "1992-2011" but your but your preamble to the list says " ....... it ties the longest such streak in the AL in the DH era."

Didn't the DH era start in 1973, not 1992?
John Autin Says:
July 8th, 2011 at 9:40 pm
@5, Neil L -- There are 2 lists under point 1; the last 20 years (1992-2011), and the DH era (1973-2011). By the time I post this, you'll probably have realized.

Sorry for the flood of data. Concision (?) is not one of my strong points. But I know you're up to it!
Neil L. Says:
July 8th, 2011 at 9:50 pm
@6
Got it, thanks, John. Absorbing, absorbing ..........
Neil L. Says:
July 8th, 2011 at 10:22 pm
A quickie reaction. No Roy Halladay on any one of the lists. I wonder why.

Looking at the second list, the most impressive one, Jim Palmer had 4 shutouts in his streak and one unearned run in another start.

Dave Steib's streak spanned two seasons so no start-to-start momentum there.

Willie Hernandez in 1984 has to be an MVP and Cy Young fraught with controversary. Dennis Eckersley in 1991 the only other reliever with similar accolades?
Mustachioed Repetition Says:
July 8th, 2011 at 10:29 pm
Mr. Hernandez at least pitched a lot of IP, and I suppose one could make an argument that he was tremendously valuable. Eck's MVP always irked me. I remember that season that the media kept repeating that the A's were something like 67-1 when Eckersley pitched, and doesn't that show how amazing he is?! Numbers can be dangerous things....
Mustachioed Repetition Says:
July 8th, 2011 at 10:33 pm
Oh yeah, Neil, Fingers won MVP in '81.

OK, I looked it up...the A's were 64-5 when Eck pitched in '92. All of those losses were in the last 5 weeks, and 3 of them in the last week, so for much of the season it was "40-0! 50-0! They can't lose if he pitches!" Oy.
Mustachioed Repetition Says:
July 8th, 2011 at 10:35 pm
Oh, and Konstanty was MVP in '50, but that was before the CYA.
Neil L. Says:
July 8th, 2011 at 11:01 pm
@10
MR, forgot about Rollie Fingers also. 1981 was a tale of two seasons, though. What a strange year.
Eric W. Says:
July 8th, 2011 at 11:54 pm
Strange that out of all the pitchers in the 8+ game 7+ IP <=2 runs allowed streak, Randy Johnson is the only one with a losing record. None of the other pitchers come close to a losing record, and Johnson's is a paltry 2-5.
John Autin Says:
July 9th, 2011 at 12:47 am
t@13, Eric W. -- The Johnson streak is one that's been discussed a bit. Arizona got shut out in the first FOUR of those games; Johnson lost them all (0-1, 0-2, 0-1, 0-2), allowing a total of 6 runs (5 ER) in 32 IP, with [gulp] 53 strikeouts.

The next game, he threw 8 shutout innings (in Texas) and left with a 2-0 lead; Matt Mantei got the first 2 outs in the 9th, but walked the bases loaded and they all scored on a double by Mark McLemore.

In the 6th game, Johnson might have strangled Showalter if he'd tried to make a pitching change. Randy threw 139 pitches in a CG shutout, even though he had a 6-0 lead in the last 2 innings.
Erik Smith Says:
July 9th, 2011 at 8:02 am
Johan Santana having 2 such streaks separated by only 2 games of giving up 3 runs each is completely dominant. He was 2-4 and wound up 20-6. Seeing how dominant one pitcher can be takes me back to 1985 watching Gooden's magical year game by game. Still pains me to think that John Tudor and Cesar Cedeno kept us out of the playoffs, but the Cardinals were just slightly that more magical, till Denkinger broke the spell 🙂 That still is the biggest rip-off I've ever witnessed in pro sport, IMHO.
mike anderson Says:
July 9th, 2011 at 9:10 am
What about Sandy Koufax in 1965 and 1966? Combined W/L of 53-17; 658 innings pitched, 699 K's; Two Cy Youngs, Two runner-ups in the MVP ( to Mays and Clemente no less) Then he retires just when in 1967 & 1968 the pitchers take over! Oh and a combined ERA under 2.00 in those years too.
Erik Smith Says:
July 9th, 2011 at 1:03 pm
Koufax was arguably the best pitcher for 5 years, ever. But, I'd still like to see how good he would have been after they lowered the mound to 10 inches. His complete over the top motion was perfect for pitching from that high of a plane.
John Autin Says:
July 10th, 2011 at 12:10 am
@17, Erik Smith -- I realize that your statement "Koufax was arguably the best pitcher for 5 years, ever" was not your main point. Still, I can't bear to see that canard repeated without refuting it.

From 1962-66, Koufax went 111-34, with a 1.95 ERA, 167 ERA+, 1,444 strikeouts, and 42.0 Wins Above Replacement (WAR). Fabulous numbers -- but not one of those marks is the best ever for a 5-year period.

Walter Johnson from 1912-16 went 149-70 (for a team that was collectively about .500 without him), with a 1.55 ERA, 193 ERA+, and 51.4 WAR.

As great as Koufax was, he can't touch Johnson.

Many other pitchers have bettered Koufax in Wins, ERA and ERA+ over a 5-year span, and Nolan Ryan topped him in strikeouts (1,592 Ks from 1972-76).

One thing that gets glossed over in the Koufax argument is that in 2 of those 5 years he didn't really pitch a lot of innings -- 184 IP in 1962 and 223 in '64. If he'd pitched full seasons both of those years, there might be an argument that it was the best 5-year run ever. But he didn't, and there isn't. It's damn hard to compete with guy who averages 359 IP and a 30-14 record.
Mustachioed Repetition Says:
July 10th, 2011 at 3:05 am
Koufax's postseason performances are usually considered part of that great run (at least, they are certainly part of what made his legend).
Fireworks Says:
July 10th, 2011 at 1:08 pm
Pedro from any 5 years from 97-03 gets my vote, even if he missed a ton of time in 01.
John Autin Says:
July 10th, 2011 at 10:17 pm
@19, M.R. -- Very good point. I'm sticking with Barney, though.
John Autin Says:
July 10th, 2011 at 10:57 pm
Meanwhile, the Verlander Report:

-- He allowed 1 run (unearned) in 7.2 IP Sunday in KC, thus matching the longest streaks since 1992 of [7+ IP, 1 run or less] and [7+ IP, 2 runs or less], at 7 and 9 games, respectively.

-- He lowered his ERA to 2.15. Only 2 qualifying Tigers have had a sub-3 ERA in the DH era: Mark Fidrych (2.34 in 1976) and Jeff Robinson (2.98 in '88).

-- He lowered his WHIP to 0.87. The all-time Tigers record is 0.91 by Denny McLain in 1968; no other qualifying Tiger has ever had a WHIP below 1. His 6.02 H/9 would also be a Tigers record.

-- He got his 12th win in Detroit's 92nd game, matching the high for a Tiger since 1974. Jack Morris did it 3 times, and 4 others did it once.

-- The Tigers were shut out in two of his four losses this year; in those games, Verlander allowed 2 runs in a CG, and 1 run in 7.2 IP. All four of his losses were quality starts.

-- Since 2009, Detroit has scored 2 runs or less in 23 Verlander starts. In those games, he has a 3.00 ERA (overall ERA is 3.12 in that period) and averaged over 7 IP.

-- The win puts the Tigers in 1st place at the All-Star break.

I know I'm gushing, but hey -- I'm a Tigers fan and I haven't seen anything like this since Mickey Lolich, and I was only 8 years old then, and the DH hadn't been invented. Fidrych was great, but while his results were dominant, he didn't dominate. Verlander does, and I'm diggin' it.
Random Recap: On the brink of the break » Baseball-Reference Blog » Blog Archive Says:
July 11th, 2011 at 1:38 am
[...] of (a) 7+ IP and 1 run or less, and (b) 7+ IP, 2 runs or less, at 7 and 9 games, respectively. (See prior post re: [...]

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