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“Roll Projector!” Jose Reyes Still on Historic Pace

Posted by John Autin on June 7, 2011

[Stats have been updated through games of June 14.]

Projecting the full-season stats for Jose Reyes, based on the Mets' first 67 games (franchise record holders in parentheses):

A few Play Index searches turned up the following old-timey facts:

(1) 27 Triples? The only modern player to hit that many 3Bs in a season was Chief Wilson, who set the all-time record of 36 in 1912. (That's not the only 1912 connection for Jose, as we'll see in a moment.)

(2) 356 total bases ... with just 7 HRs? As we'll see, that wouldn't be just a Mets club record for total bases; it would be the all-time MLB record for most Total Bases with 7 HRs or less. Here are the top 10:

Rk Player TB HR Year Age Tm Lg G PA AB R H 2B 3B RBI BB IBB SO HBP SH SB CS BA OBP SLG OPS Pos
1 Shoeless Joe Jackson 337 7 1911 23 CLE AL 147 641 571 126 233 45 19 83 56 0 0 8 6 41 0 .408 .468 .590 1.058 *98
2 Ty Cobb 335 6 1917 30 DET AL 152 669 588 107 225 44 24 102 61 0 34 4 16 55 0 .383 .444 .570 1.014 *89
3 Earle Combs 331 6 1927 28 NYY AL 152 724 648 137 231 36 23 64 62 0 31 2 12 15 6 .356 .414 .511 .925 *8
4 Shoeless Joe Jackson 331 3 1912 24 CLE AL 154 653 572 121 226 44 26 90 54 0 0 12 15 35 20 .395 .458 .579 1.036 *98
5 Paul Waner 329 6 1928 25 PIT NL 152 697 602 142 223 50 19 86 77 0 16 5 13 6 0 .370 .446 .547 .992 *93
6 Ty Cobb 323 7 1912 25 DET AL 140 609 553 120 226 30 23 83 43 0 0 5 8 61 34 .409 .456 .584 1.040 *8
7 Billy Herman 317 7 1935 25 CHC NL 154 735 666 113 227 57 6 83 42 0 29 3 24 6 0 .341 .383 .476 .859 *4
8 Lloyd Waner 317 5 1929 23 PIT NL 151 726 662 134 234 28 20 74 37 0 20 9 18 6 0 .353 .395 .479 .874 *8
9 Jesse Burkett 317 6 1896 27 CLV NL 133 647 586 160 240 27 16 72 49 0 19 7 5 34 0 .410 .461 .541 1.002 *7
10 Cecil Travis 316 7 1941 27 WSH AL 152 663 608 106 218 39 19 101 52 0 25 1 2 2 2 .359 .410 .520 .930 *65
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 6/6/2011.

(3) 50 Doubles/20 Triples? Jose has fallen slightly off 50-doubles pace (now on track for 46). Only Stan Musial ever had 50+ 2Bs and 20+ 3Bs in a season. Here are the most doubles in a 20-triple season:

Rk Player 2B 3B Year Age Tm G PA AB R H HR RBI BB SO HBP GDP SB CS BA OBP SLG OPS Pos
1 Stan Musial 50 20 1946 25 STL 156 702 624 124 228 16 103 73 31 3 7 7 0 .365 .434 .587 1.021 *37
2 Stan Musial 48 20 1943 22 STL 157 701 617 108 220 13 81 72 18 2 17 9 0 .357 .425 .562 .988 *978
3 Joe Kelley 48 20 1894 22 BLN 129 638 507 165 199 6 111 107 36 5 0 46 0 .393 .502 .602 1.104 *7
4 Joe Vosmik 47 20 1935 25 CLE 152 688 620 93 216 10 110 59 30 4 0 2 1 .348 .408 .537 .946 *7/8
5 Adam Comorosky 47 23 1930 24 PIT 152 685 597 112 187 12 119 51 33 4 0 14 0 .313 .371 .529 .900 *78
6 Heinie Manush 47 20 1928 26 SLB 154 697 638 104 241 13 108 39 14 0 0 16 5 .378 .414 .575 .989 *7
7 Lou Gehrig 47 20 1926 23 NYY 155 696 572 135 179 16 112 105 73 1 0 6 5 .313 .420 .549 .969 *3
8 Ty Cobb 47 24 1911 24 DET 146 654 591 147 248 8 127 44 0 8 0 83 0 .420 .467 .621 1.088 *8
9 Honus Wagner 45 22 1900 26 PIT 135 580 527 107 201 4 100 41 17 8 0 38 0 .381 .434 .573 1.007 *9/5431
10 Sam Thompson 45 21 1895 35 PHI 119 576 538 131 211 18 165 31 11 5 0 27 0 .392 .430 .654 1.085 *9
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 6/15/2011.

(4) 20 Triples / 50 Steals? Jose is on pace for 27 3Bs and 53 SB. Only 2 modern players ever had 20+ 3Bs and 50+ SB in a season:

Rk Player 3B SB Year Age Tm Lg G PA AB R H 2B HR RBI BB IBB SO HBP SH CS BA OBP SLG OPS Pos
1 Ty Cobb 24 55 1917 30 DET AL 152 669 588 107 225 44 6 102 61 0 34 4 16 0 .383 .444 .570 1.014 *89
2 Ty Cobb 24 83 1911 24 DET AL 146 654 591 147 248 47 8 127 44 0 0 8 11 0 .420 .467 .621 1.088 *8
3 Ty Cobb 23 61 1912 25 DET AL 140 609 553 120 226 30 7 83 43 0 0 5 8 34 .409 .456 .584 1.040 *8
4 Lance Johnson 21 50 1996 32 NYM NL 160 724 682 117 227 31 9 69 33 8 40 1 3 12 .333 .362 .479 .841 *8
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 6/6/2011.

And lastly....

(5) 50 Doubles/20 Triples/50 Steals? I'll spare you another table, since those above make it clear that this particular 50/20/50 combo has never been done. Reyes is on pace to be the first.

Now for the sort-of-disclaimer: Do I really think Jose Reyes will get 356 total bases? Well, no. But he did have 327 total bases in 2008, while hitting  just .297. If he maintains his current .346 BA and stays healthy (on pace for 155 games), then the total bases aren't really outlandish. His current ratio of XBH to Hits (34%) is not unprecedented for him.; he matched that figure for the 3-year span 2006-08.

So, can a career .286 hitter suddenly hit .346 for a season? Surely he can; every year, we see some veterans exceed their career BA or BAbip by 50 points or more. And don't forget that Reyes is operating in a home park that seems very much to his liking: in 120 career games there, he has slashed .324/.378/.506, with 33% of his hits going for extra bases. Finally, his current high batting average is partly supported by a decline in strikeouts; he's is on pace for 60 strikeouts, after averaging 82 Ks per 162 games in the past. It's not as nutty as it may sound (I hope) ... and until the Mets give me a better hope to believe in, I'm believing in this one!

(At least until he's felled by the Curse of Wilpon.)

Related posts:

    Jose Reyes Leads NL in Doubles and Triples through May 29
    Rare power and speed combo: Jacoby Ellsbury, Jose Reyes, and Matt Kemp
    Jose, can you get any hotter?
    Jim Thome is having a historic season for a 39-year-old
    Record pace for Al Alburquerque

This entry was posted on Tuesday, June 7th, 2011 at 5:06 pm and is filed under Uncategorized. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. Both comments and pings are currently closed.

108 Responses to ““Roll Projector!” Jose Reyes Still on Historic Pace”

  1. Dukeofflatbush Says:
    June 9th, 2011 at 11:52 pm

    "Classic" Center-stage? really! Why not just have Michael Kay recite his favorite christmas presents from age 4 on.
    Can you say Smaltz.
    Or how about a list read aloud from a pre-recorded tape made on Bob Shepard's death bed of George Steinbrenner's random thoughts on botany.

  2. John Autin Says:
    June 9th, 2011 at 11:52 pm

    @100, Neil -- Sorry for spoiling your challenge. I didn't want to be too controlling. My wife hates it when I withhold a crossword answer....

  3. howard rosen Says:
    June 10th, 2011 at 4:03 pm

    Holy Moley....if a pitcher gives up a triple and subsequently throws a ball past the catcher on his next pitch then he is in the same situation as if the previous batter homered. In that case how would a triple be worse for the pitcher than a HR?

  4. jason Says:
    June 10th, 2011 at 4:51 pm

    319 avg, 9 hr, 22 3b, 51 2b, 59 sb

    these his stats shall be
    it has been declared!

  5. John Autin Says:
    June 10th, 2011 at 5:02 pm

    @104, Jason -- Where can I bet a 5-way teaser on the "under"? 🙂

  6. Saturday Links (11 Jun 11) | Ducksnorts Says:
    June 11th, 2011 at 9:16 am

    [...] “Roll Projector!” Jose Reyes *is* on an Historic Pace (Baseball-Reference). Never mind Reyes, did you know that Tony Gwynn Sr. is the only man since World War II to collect 300 or more total bases in a season while hitting seven or fewer home runs? Well, now you do. [...]

  7. Jose Reyes is on fire | Baseball/Slant Says:
    June 12th, 2011 at 5:22 pm

    [...] [...]

  8. Who are your MLB superlative winners right now? (aka enjoy it now Mets fans) Says:
    June 16th, 2011 at 4:52 pm

    [...] Minute Ago (6/16/2011 9:52pm) in reply to AFink93 I found this. http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/archives/11587 Shoeless Joe had 3 HRs and a .579 SLG in 1912. [...]

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