31 Responses to “Rare power and speed combo: Jacoby Ellsbury, Jose Reyes, and Matt Kemp”

1. Tristram Says:
   July 29th, 2011 at 7:49 am

   Reyes' season is clearly most similar to Knoblauch's and Lofton's, with HR.333. May not bode well for him, as both Knoblauch and Lofton never met those heights again, with neither posting a 120 OPS+, let alone 140 or 150, in the rest of their years.

2. Timmy p Says:
   July 29th, 2011 at 8:40 am

   Granderson is not too far off.

3. Johnny Twisto Says:
   July 29th, 2011 at 9:13 am

   So, did you cut this list off at a certain date? If not, why is it missing so many player's from JA's list, which is practically the same thing?

4. Ed Says:
   July 29th, 2011 at 9:20 am

   @3 Johnny Twisto It certainly looks that way. I was curious about Willie Mays and it looks like he accomplished this feat in both 56 and 57.

5. Daniel Says:
   July 29th, 2011 at 9:50 am

   I made a short list of omissions, then realized that the list is sorted by date and the first 25 only goes through '88. Leaving the list here anyway - by no means exhaustive:

   Eric Davis in '87 (50, .588)
   Joe Morgan in '76 (60, .576)
   Tris Speaker in '13 (52, .567)
   George Sisler in '20 (42, .627)
   Ty Cobb in '11 (83, .621) - and probably a couple other times
   Tony Gwynn in '87 (56, .511)
   Tim Raines in '97 (50, .526)

   Also expected Robbie Alomar to be on here a couple times in the '90s, but he fell just short twice:

   '99 - 37 (in 159 games), .533
   '93 - 55, .492

6. donburgh Says:
   July 29th, 2011 at 10:33 am

   May I ask where the boxscore to last night's PIT/ATL game is? Could it be that some Braves fan with B-R can't stand Andrew McCutchen's awesomeness? 😉

7. John Says:
   July 29th, 2011 at 10:41 am

   In a previous post, Andy mentioned that he would be away, and that he wrote his posts a week ahead.

   That said, with all the great players and performances in Boston this year (and there are many), Ellsbury's probably the most exciting for Red Sox fans.

   At least among the hitters: Beckett's improvement from 2010 has the potential to be record breaking. I heard during the game yesterday that Elias has reported that no pitcher has ever dropped 3.5 runs from their (qualifying) ERA in consecutive years. He's right around that now, after getting a little roughed up by the Royals yesterday.

8. John M Says:
   July 29th, 2011 at 11:46 am

   Is this now sufficient proof for the world to stop dumping on Barry Bonds? They guy's a jerk to be sure....but he was unquestionably the greatest player in the game in the last 25 years. The fact that he accomplished this feat 5 times (Nobody else did it more than twice) before any suspicion of PED's was in place - should be satisfactory proof.

9. topper009 Says:
   July 29th, 2011 at 12:19 pm

   @6, the Brewers-Cubs box score is also missing and Braun is missing from the good game leaderboard going 3-4, 2R, 2RBI, HR, 2B

10. Kelly Says:
    July 29th, 2011 at 1:03 pm

    Not sure I get the "power and speed combo" out of this analysis. By looking at SA instead of isolated power, you are including guys like Reyes and Lofton, whose "power" consists of triples and doubles, which really reflect more on their speed.

11. Kelly Says:
    July 29th, 2011 at 1:08 pm

    @8 Yeah, and I had a good job and a nice savings account before I decided to embezzle from my company. I'm still a thief who's going to jail....

    I've never heard anyone say Bonds was not a fantastic player pre-PDA. He made the choice to risk his legacy by cheating, so no, I don't think people will or should stop "dumping on" him for making that choice.

12. Tristram Says:
    July 29th, 2011 at 2:49 pm

    Anyone else surprised by how much black ink is on this list? I would think that looking at a crossover list of two percentage stats would lead to lower plate appearances and counting stats. 5 of these 25 lead their league in plate appearances.

13. Tmckelv Says:
    July 29th, 2011 at 3:10 pm

    @8 JohnM,

    I was going to make a similar point...
    Although I still think Barry Bonds should be bashed for his PED use, I believe this list perfectly shows why he should still get into the HOF. He had an HOF career before he started with the PEDs.

14. Mets Maven Says:
    July 29th, 2011 at 3:39 pm

    Can somebody explain to me why Jose Reyes has a -0.3 dWAR? I was always under the impression that he's an above average fielding shortstop. The negative dWAR significantly affects his overall WAR ranking among NL position players.

15. Neil L. Says:
    July 29th, 2011 at 4:09 pm

    @11
    But, Kelly, why does "power" have to only include home runs and not gappers and off-the-fence shots? In my opinion, there is nothing wrong with using slugging as a criterion instead of isolated power.

    @8
    John M., won't the voting in the first year of HOF eligibility tell the real story for Bonds and his fellow-juicers? There are a lot of them becoming eligible in the same year.

16. buddy Says:
    July 29th, 2011 at 5:17 pm

    I think if you didn't use PEDs, you should be banned from the Hall of Fame, because you obviously didn't really want to win.

17. jimmyv Says:
    July 29th, 2011 at 8:20 pm

    Most of the guys on the list did not hit alot of homers which the power in the doubles and triples they hit.. Stan Musial never hit 40 homers in a season but is second all time in doubles and led the league in triples. think he is second on the all time list for total bases.
    Since baseball did not have a defined policy on PEDs for a number of years, maybe the players should be judged based on their numbers minus
    a third of their career totals . The other penalty should be 15 years before being eligible. As of 2011, first time you lose a seaon, econd time banned.
    I am a little sypathetic because when I was 18 if someone said this pill would make you throw 10 mpH faster but take 10 years off your life, I would have doubled the order. It's not an excuse.... just perspective..

18. Neil L. Says:
    July 30th, 2011 at 9:14 am

    Of course, Ellsbury, Reyes and Kemp have to maintain their current paces of stealing and slugging to remain on the list. All the other players, of course, accomplished it over a full season.

    Matt Kemp is already touch and go to maintain the necessary steal rate of one every four games.

19. Neil L. Says:
    July 30th, 2011 at 9:28 am

    @14
    Mets Maven, I am probably the wrong one to try and explain dWAR to you since it is based on total zone rating. And I certainly can't explain why Reyes has a negative value other than saying there must a number of batted balls he does not get to that a replacement shortstop would.

    But here is the link to BBRef's explanation of Total Zone as a defensive metric. Happy reading.

    http://www.baseball-reference.com/about/total_zone.shtml

    I do notice from Jose's fielding stats, though, that he has made 12 errors so far and is slightly below the league average at fielding his position based on the old-fashioned fielding percntage.

20. Johnny Twisto Says:
    July 30th, 2011 at 12:14 pm

    Can somebody explain to me why Jose Reyes has a -0.3 dWAR? I was always under the impression that he's an above average fielding shortstop.

    I can't explain it precisely, but I can give some reasons for it. First of all, this means he's been 3 runs below average over ~60% of a season. Given the inherent error bars in defensive metrics, that's not substantially different from rating average, or 1 run above average. Total Zone is an objective way of measuring defensive performance, but it's far from a perfect one. There are things it can't know, there are things it could miss. Maybe a preponderance of balls judged to be hit within Reyes' "zone" of responsibility have been near the edges of it, where they are harder to field. UZR is a different stat with a different approach, and it says Reyes has been slightly above average this season.

    Maybe the number is accurate. Maybe Reyes *is* an above-average defender, but he's just having a below-average season. The 90 games he's played aren't a perfect reflection of his abilities, they're just a sample of it. I was under the impression Albert Pujols was a legendary hitter, but this fancy batting average metric says he's hitting just .278, how do you explain that? (True, BA more accurately measures what it intends to measure than TZ does, so it's not a perfect comparison, but it does show that players can have up and down seasons, and it doesn't necessarily mean something is wrong with the measurement.)

    Personally, I would never put too much weight on dWAR/TZ or any one defensive number. I'd look at a few of them, I'd consider anecdotal evidence, and I'd consider my own opinion if it's a player I've seen a lot of.

21. Neil L. Says:
    July 30th, 2011 at 2:25 pm

    @14 @20
    Maybe Reyes was edging toward 2nd base with a fast runner on second while a left-handed batter was at the plate for some of the at bats recorded in total zone. There are many nuances of defense positioning and play that are difficult to capture statistically.

22. Liam Says:
    July 30th, 2011 at 3:41 pm

    Ho Jo definitely had that awesome blend of speed and power lol

    funny to see him on a list with a bunch of sure fire HOFers

23. Doug Says:
    July 30th, 2011 at 4:59 pm

    Take a look at Barry Bonds and Rickey Henderson's 1990 seasons, adjacent to each other on the list.

    Very close matches on every number, save RBI. Were As using him properly by batting him leadoff that year?

24. Johnny Twisto Says:
    July 30th, 2011 at 5:30 pm

    Good question, Doug, but I think they were. Henderson wasn't a "true" 28-HR hitter. He had topped 20 a couple times, but a few years earlier. In '88 he'd hit only 6. A safe projection would have put him around 15 HR coming into the season, so the team wouldn't have considered moving him lower in the order until well into the season. Anyway, they already had power for the middle of the order with Canseco, McGwire, and Dave Henderson. Rickey had by far the best OBP, so I think even in retrospect that leading him off was the right choice. It gave their best offensive player the most PA, and plenty of RBI opportunities for the boppers.

    Who would have replaced Henderson as the leadoff hitter? Looking back, I don't see a good choice. Considering what was known entering 1990, maybe you'd consider Randolph, but he didn't join the team until May and was an aging player who'd never been that durable.

25. Johnny Twisto Says:
    July 30th, 2011 at 5:31 pm

    Interestingly, '90 was the season Bonds was moved out of the leadoff spot.

26. Doug Says:
    July 30th, 2011 at 9:08 pm

    @24, @25.

    Thanks for the thoughtful response, JT.

    Those As evidently had quite a pleasant "problem".

27. dan Says:
    August 1st, 2011 at 2:53 am

    Ryne Sandberg had 54 stolen bases and slugged 504 in 1985.

28. Kelly Says:
    August 1st, 2011 at 12:28 pm

    @NeilL

    You're right, a .500 slugging average means you are a power hitter. I was mistaken and appreciate you showing me the error of my ways.

    Thus if this list went back further, we could include Ty Cobb, 1914, who "slugged" .513 and stole 35 bases in 98 games, so he would qualify for this list. Sure, he had a .368 batting average, and 75% of his hits were singles, but hey, he must have had enough "power" to drive the ball past the pitcher in order to leg out all of those singles. Cobb would be right at home here with other power hitters like Lofton and Reyes.

    List is a perfect example of misusing statistics to make a point that isn't there. I love Jose Reyes too, but he is most certainly NOT an example of a Power+Speed guy.

29. Neil L. Says:
    August 1st, 2011 at 12:44 pm

    @28
    Kelly, you are also right about SLG in the sense that a massive singles hitter could acheive a misleading slugging average by just slapping the ball around and bunting for base hits. I think those kind of seasons, though, are rather rare in the live-ball era.

30. Johnny Twisto Says:
    August 1st, 2011 at 4:21 pm

    Cobb was a power hitter for his time. He had the third best ISO from 1907 (when he became a regular) through 1919. Narrowly behind Joe Jackson, and well behind Gavvy Cravath, the rare deadball hitter who could routinely put the ball over the fence. It's hard to guess what his stats would look like if he were transferred to today, but I don't think he was that similar to Reyes.

31. Neil L. Says:
    August 1st, 2011 at 6:02 pm

    @28
    "List is a perfect example of misusing statistics to make a point that isn't there.'
    Kelly, I'm still not sure what your issue is about the list. It is not trying to make Jose Reyes out to be a tape-measure home run hitter.

    Note the first part of the title "Rare power and speed combo". Andy, is simply using 0.500 SLG as a measure of a reasonable number of extra bases. And on that basis, Reyes' number of total bases means he has some pop in his bat. Not over-the-fence pop, but not singles.

    Jose Reyes' 2011 hitting line is anomalous because of the high number of triples and the list brings that to light. His HR total is by far the lowest on the list, as you point out.

    Now Reyes has been stuck on 16 triples for a while now and may not maintain his historic triples' pace so his slugging is likely to fall below 0.500. In that case, he wouldn't qualify for these criteria.

    But as to the list being a misuse of statistics and the sarcastic part of your posts @11 and @28 ...... I don't get it.