Mailbag: What Are Derek Jeter’s Chances of Breaking the All-Time Hits Record?
Posted by Neil Paine on December 22, 2010
Here's a message from John, who wants to know whether Derek Jeter can break Pete Rose's hits record:
"After his fresh new contract will Jeter approach and pass Mr. Rose or will he fall short, he needs 1330 base knocks. That is an average of 222 hits over the next 6 seasons (he never has reached 222, EVER) or 190 hits over the next 7 season, Per Season.? What do you think ? Will Jeter hang on like Rose to be a player/manager, player/coach to reach the record? This is a revisit of your 2008 blog."
I don't think he'll be a player/coach, but we can judge his chances as a plain old player using what Bill James called the "Favorite Toy". This is how our Bullpen Wiki describes the methodology:
"The favorite toy is a metric by Bill James that projects future career value. The formula remained secret for a number of years but it has since been released.
To get the figures, you need a projection of future seasons. James uses 24-(.6*[Age of Player]). Thus a player who is 28 has 7.2 full seasons left. A player who is less than 1.5 is given 1.5.
To project a statistic, the formula is (last season*3+second to last season*2+third to last season)/6. The number is then multiplied to the future seasons and added to career totals to get a projection.
There is also a formula that gives a percentage chance of attaining the milestone. To get this figure take the future projection ([last season*3+second to last season*2+third to last season]/6)*future seasons. Then divide that number by the needed total then subtract .5."
Got it? Good. Here are Jeter's career stats:
| Year | Age | Tm | Lg | G | PA | AB | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | SB | CS | BB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1995 | 21 | NYY | AL | 15 | 51 | 48 | 5 | 12 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| 1996 | 22 | NYY | AL | 157 | 654 | 582 | 104 | 183 | 25 | 6 | 10 | 78 | 14 | 7 | 48 |
| 1997 | 23 | NYY | AL | 159 | 748 | 654 | 116 | 190 | 31 | 7 | 10 | 70 | 23 | 12 | 74 |
| 1998 | 24 | NYY | AL | 149 | 694 | 626 | 127 | 203 | 25 | 8 | 19 | 84 | 30 | 6 | 57 |
| 1999 | 25 | NYY | AL | 158 | 739 | 627 | 134 | 219 | 37 | 9 | 24 | 102 | 19 | 8 | 91 |
| 2000 | 26 | NYY | AL | 148 | 679 | 593 | 119 | 201 | 31 | 4 | 15 | 73 | 22 | 4 | 68 |
| 2001 | 27 | NYY | AL | 150 | 686 | 614 | 110 | 191 | 35 | 3 | 21 | 74 | 27 | 3 | 56 |
| 2002 | 28 | NYY | AL | 157 | 730 | 644 | 124 | 191 | 26 | 0 | 18 | 75 | 32 | 3 | 73 |
| 2003 | 29 | NYY | AL | 119 | 542 | 482 | 87 | 156 | 25 | 3 | 10 | 52 | 11 | 5 | 43 |
| 2004 | 30 | NYY | AL | 154 | 721 | 643 | 111 | 188 | 44 | 1 | 23 | 78 | 23 | 4 | 46 |
| 2005 | 31 | NYY | AL | 159 | 752 | 654 | 122 | 202 | 25 | 5 | 19 | 70 | 14 | 5 | 77 |
| 2006 | 32 | NYY | AL | 154 | 715 | 623 | 118 | 214 | 39 | 3 | 14 | 97 | 34 | 5 | 69 |
| 2007 | 33 | NYY | AL | 156 | 714 | 639 | 102 | 206 | 39 | 4 | 12 | 73 | 15 | 8 | 56 |
| 2008 | 34 | NYY | AL | 150 | 668 | 596 | 88 | 179 | 25 | 3 | 11 | 69 | 11 | 5 | 52 |
| 2009 | 35 | NYY | AL | 153 | 716 | 634 | 107 | 212 | 27 | 1 | 18 | 66 | 30 | 5 | 72 |
| 2010 | 36 | NYY | AL | 157 | 739 | 663 | 111 | 179 | 30 | 3 | 10 | 67 | 18 | 5 | 63 |
| 16 Seasons | 2295 | 10548 | 9322 | 1685 | 2926 | 468 | 61 | 234 | 1135 | 323 | 85 | 948 | |||
Jeter is 36, so we would expect there to be 2.4 seasons left in his career. Over the past 3 seasons, he had 179, 212, and 179 hits. Using James' weights, we would expect Jeter to have (179*3 + 212*2 + 179) / 6 = 190 hits per season for the remainder of his career. Applying that to Jeter's 2.4 remaining seasons, we get a projection of 456 hits for the rest of Jeter's career.
Rose had 4256 career hits, and Jeter currently needs 1331 hits to break the all-time record. Plugging all of that into James' formula, we get 456/1331 = .343 - .5 = -.157. Since these are probabilities, James rounds negative numbers to zero, so unfortunately for Captain Clutch, he has a 0.0% chance of breaking the all-time record.
The good news, though, is that Jeter will almost certainly get to 3000 hits. And according to James' method, he also has a 50% chance of reaching 3382 hits (which would rank him 9th all-time), plus a 27% chance of reaching the top 5 in all-time hits.
December 22nd, 2010 at 6:37 pm
Understand, I am not saying that Jeter will achieve anything close to 4,000 hits, but this formulaic approach seems rather, um, formulaic. It sure doesn't take into account for the possibility of an outstanding performance. Which is what all records are. (It also doesn't account for steroids, but perhaps we've seen the end of those).
The formula is based on the past performance of all the players who ever played, it seems. If that is true, it would never predict a recording breaking career total performance until a year or two before it occurred.
If you had applied the formula to Pete Rose at age 36, it would have predicted that he would end his career with about 3,475 hits.
His chance of obtaining 4,256 hits would also have been predicted as zero.
But he did it.
December 22nd, 2010 at 6:50 pm
I just don't see another player breaking that record. Believe me, Jeter has a shot. He will more than likely wind up at about 3,400 to 3,500 hits.
December 22nd, 2010 at 7:02 pm
Joseph,
James' projection calculator is obviously not intended to be perfect since the future in unknown. It gives a prediction based on how players age. Some players will play more and longer than what is expected from a player at X age. If the most recent season is an aberation (high or low) from the norm then the prediction will be less valid. After each season you recalculate based on most recent data. The methodology works best in the middle of a career. Players in their early 20's and late 30's will have greater deviations. I haven't gone back and reviewed all of James' past books to see how close he gets, but my guess is his career projections for 50 players after their age 30 season is relatively close for more than 90%. Some stats (homers) are more projectable than others from what I've seen. Pitching stats are less reliable due to greater risk of injury. Also, the calculator does not account for speed of decline for differetn positions. Catchers and middle infielders tend to fall of precipitously in mid 30's.
December 22nd, 2010 at 7:17 pm
Cal Ripken played a gazillion games in a row and he's not even in the top 10
December 22nd, 2010 at 7:48 pm
Through age 36, Pete Rose's odds would have also been zero (-.112 for Rose, -.137 for Jeter).
With just 40 hits separating them through the age 36 season, Jeter would have a chance of catching him as early as 43. But I can't imagine Jeter having and/or wanting that opportunity.
December 22nd, 2010 at 7:57 pm
I wonder if there's even a player in baseball today with a chance to break the record. He'd have to be young, a hit machine and healthy. Like, so healthy he can last 25 years.
December 22nd, 2010 at 8:39 pm
Jeter might break Charlie Hustle's hit record; but then, I might become the first ever Jewish-American Pentecostal Pope.
Don't count on either one happening soon.
December 22nd, 2010 at 8:49 pm
Arod looked like he had a chance, but his pace has slowed, and it seems age is getting to him now. Still, he's the type that could DH until he's 44 if necessary. 3 years ago I thought he had a good chance. Not anymore.
Albert Pujols probably has the next best shot. I'd actually say he has the best shot of a current player, the only problem is he's starting to walk 110 times a year, so instead of getting 190 hits a year like he used to he's getting 175 ish.
Again, Pujols is the type that might be able to hit well into his forties. He has the great batting value, and seems to have the work ethic and commitment.
December 22nd, 2010 at 8:52 pm
Actually, Pujols seems to have leveled off at 180-185 hits per season. If he averages 183 hits per season over the next 6 years, he would finish his age 36 season at 2998 hits, slightly ahead of Jeters pace. But Pujols is so much better of a hitter, that he could likely carry on much longer, at first base or possibly even longer as a DH. Again, he'd probably have to stay healthy and productive until about age 44 to do it.
December 22nd, 2010 at 9:06 pm
I agree with Jimbo about Pujols. He was my first thought on a guy that would have a legitimate chance at getting past Rose. For someone to do that, they would have to come up really young, and just be able to get a bat on the ball.
I also wonder what the reaction will be when Ichiro passes his total with the combination of his Japanese and MLB hits.
December 22nd, 2010 at 9:22 pm
@9, Jimbo, I think you hit on the two problems Pujols will have in trying to trying to break the all-time hit record. During what should be his most productive seasons, aged 26-30, he's averaged 184 hits per season. He may maintain that rate for a few more years, but eventually age will start to impact part of his game. Perhaps a little less BA, but more HRs, or perhaps more walks, reducing his chances for hits. As good as a hitter as he is, I think he has almost no chance. His base of hits at his current age is not quite high enough.
King Albert has a much better chance for the all-time HR record, assuming he stays healthy. It appeared once upon a time that Kid Griffey was going to be the man, that is until he became very injury prone. A-Rod seemed to be a lock, yet since the hip injury and surgery, his chances have been reduced, yet it's still not out of the question. Even as A-Rod's BA drops, I can see him moving to DH, and still cranking out 25-30 HRs when he's 40, although the BA might be nasty.
December 22nd, 2010 at 9:25 pm
Will Ichiro do that? Remarkably, it seems like Ichiro is destined to get 3000mlb hits, since he hasn't particulalrly slowed down and is still a great fielder and drawing card.
Pujols had 1900 hits in his age 21-30 seasons. Since he gets walked more now, and will surely have at least a slight decline, 1750 hits from age 31-40 seems like a slightly optimistic projection assuming he can continue to be pretty much injury free. That would leave him at 3650 hits at age 40, and if he's still a good hitter, there's no reason he can't play a few more years. 600 hits would most likely require playing until age 44 or possibly 45, and I think, if Pujols remains healthy and wants to do it, there's no reason he can't (except for the remaining healthy part and the fact that almost nobody has ever played very well into their 42+'s before). He seems well liked, and hard working, and he plays 1st base, all things that would allow him to play longer as teams would be happy to sign him.
It'll be interesting to see what sort of contract he signs after 2011.
Pujols also has a strong shot at records for doubles, HR's, rbi's, total bases, total times on base, and runs scored. Some of those records may belong to Arod by the time he gets there.
December 22nd, 2010 at 9:26 pm
When New York City freezes over . . .
. . . in July
December 22nd, 2010 at 9:27 pm
It would have to be somebody along the lines of Ichiro but having played his whole career in this country
December 22nd, 2010 at 9:36 pm
The problem with using Rose himself as an example of what Jeter might do from here on is the same as the problem with using Babe Ruth's game-by-game 60-HR pace in 1927 to measure a player's shot of reaching 60 HRs in a season that's underway: Both performances were tremendously backloaded.
Ruth hit 34 HRs in the Yankees' first 105 games, just under 1 HR per 3 games. In their last 50 games, he hit 26 HRs, more than 1 HR every 2 games; in the last 1/3 of the season, he upped his HR pace by over 60%. And he hit 16 HRs in their last 24 games.
Now, Rose didn't do better in his late 30s than he had previously done -- but he didn't decline in effectiveness at anywhere near the rate that 99% of players his age do, and he hardly ever missed a game through age 41.
Rose banged out 208 hits at age 38. It wasn't just a new record for the 38+ age group. To that point in MLB history, only 2 other players age 38 or older had recorded more than 181 hits in a season. (Sam Rice did it three times, Jake Daubert once.) And in the 32 years since, only Paul Molitor has joined that select company.
And he kept up a nearly singular hits pace for a few more years. At 40, Rose led the majors in hits; not even Sam Rice had done that.
From age 38 on, Rose totaled 1,092 hits. That's 140 more than the #2 man (Rice), 308 more than #3 (Honus Wagner), and almost 400 more than anyone else. Only 11 other men have come within half of Rose's 38-and-up total.
Although Jeter's a special player, I can't see any rationale for projecting him to hold up nearly as well as Rose.
If there is anything in Rose's career pattern that enriches a comparison with Jeter, I think it's this: From age 34-36, Rose had a combined 129 OPS+; Jeter, 106. When there are already clear signs of decline, it's just not sound to project an historically high level of hitting over the next 4+ years.
There might be a case that Jeter's projection deserves a small boost above the formula, on the grounds that his stature on the Yankees is comparable to Rose's with Cincinnati in his final years. If Jeter wants to hang around past his usefulness (as Rose did), they might let him.
On the other hand, Rose in those last few years knew he was gunning for attainable records, and he had more than one major milestone to shoot for. After his age 36 season, he needed just 665 hits to break Stan Musial's NL record of 3,630, which Rose passed at age 40; after that year, he was "just" 434 hits shy of Cobb.
What records does Jeter have to aim for? Yankee records, yes. He already has their hits record; he should pass Rickey for the SB record early next year, and with good health will catch Mantle in games around August. He's at least 3 good years from the club mark for runs (Ruth); less than that from Gehrig's mark for doubles (but who talks about franchise doubles records?). He's at least 4 years from Ruth in total bases. And he's not going to get anywhere near their records for HR, RBI or BB (nor extra-base hits unless he plays another decade or so).
Jeter could get Honus Wagner's SS hits within 3 years. After that, I don't think there are any other MLB marks other than Rose -- and that would still be a long way off.
Given what we (seem to) know about Jeter, I think he'll be happy if he passes Wagner and collects the Yankee records that are in reach. I don't see him "hanging on" just to chase Rose.
December 22nd, 2010 at 9:44 pm
We'll need to see if jeter can rebound from his 2009 season really. By looking at his stats, it looks like he may be done. But then his 2008 season was so much better. But you can say that for a lot of players. Most players that have a major off year past age 35 rapidly decline and are gone from the league.
I'm not sure if the yankees can keep him at SS for 3 more years.
One thing I've studied the most in my years of being a stats enthusiast is how much and how consistently players decline in their mid to late 30's. Power hitters and finess pitchers seem the most durable, as well as steroid users. Rickey Henderson was a fitness fanatic and loved the game. Julio Franco was also known as a fitness fanatic. I've heard that Albert Pujols also is. Those types seem to have the best chance to have productive seasons past age 38.
December 22nd, 2010 at 9:47 pm
Nolan Ryan and Roger Clemens were also known to be fitness fanatics. And so am I. Too bad my peak was in the "Premier Island League." lol.
December 22nd, 2010 at 9:47 pm
@12, The problem comes more with calculating how he'll hit in his 40s, and you have him going to 44/45. Health and age will take their impact, first slowing down his hit counts, and then eroding his overall hitting ability. We have already seen Albert's peak. He won't get better. The question is when will we start to see some erosion. It's probably still a few years off, but it's also closer than you may think. His hit total when no doubt be lower than you have projected when he's 40, and his ability to continue to hit post 40 is
Take a look at the stats of another great Cardinal hitter, Stan Musial. At the same age, 30, Musial was only about 70 hits shy of where Pujols is now, and that's with missing a full year in 1945. Musial had another great year at 30, and continued to produce at a high level for several more years, but it's also clear that he started to trend down ever so slightly after 30/31, and then took a bit dip after 37. Musial was one of the greatest hitters ever. We can't project Pujols will do any better in beating back father time than Musial.
December 22nd, 2010 at 9:53 pm
@12
Jeter and Rose had an advantage over Pujols and A-rod, in that they batted 1st or 2nd most of their career. That might work its way to 50 extra PAs a season if Pujols bats 4th, 30 if he bats 3rd. Also, not only did Rose and Jeter walk less frequently than Albert, they were almost never pitched around. Rose played for one of the best offenses ever, then he played for a pretty well stocked Phils later on. While Jeter has always had the best guys money could buy hitting behind him. I doubt there is a pitcher out there that doesn't give Jeter stuff to hit when the next 5 players in the line-up can hit 30 HRs.
So take away, the 30 PA for hitting 3rd or 4th, then take away 50 PAs for BBs. I don't think Albert can do it even hitting .330.
There also has been rumors about his age. He ceartinly looked older than 21 in '00 to me, but that doesn't mean anything.
I do know he is a heavy guy with a lot of muscle. I'm not saying he is using PEDs, just that guys that big tend to tail off with injury and a slow bat. Frank Thomas comes to mind.
Both Jeter and Rose were/are relatively lean.
Jeter will also benefit and has benefited from being spelled as the DH, something Albert won't get if he stays a Card.
I would guess, of todays players, Crawford, has the best shot at 4000. He doesn't walk, will get more PAs in the Red Sox lineup, will be able to hit 1st again and is only 28. He also benefits from the infield hit and may like the Green Monster.
Also remember Adrian Beltre is only 31, he has an outside shot at 3500 Hs, 600 2B and 500 HRs.
December 22nd, 2010 at 10:00 pm
Maybe if Crawford learns to hit in Boston the way Wade Boggs did, but without the walks.
December 22nd, 2010 at 10:03 pm
the only thing that will stop jeter from getting 4000 hits is his pride. he won't be good enough to play for the yankees for more than 4 or 5 years. so when the yankees don't want him anymore he will still need 200-300 hits. he could easily achieve 4000 hits if he wants to end his career in detroit near his hometown or someother small market team that needs a big draw.
he would also have to accept a small paycheck to do it and his ego is way to big. but if he had the heart of rickey henderson or pete rose, i'm sure he could reach 4000 or maybe even rose's record
December 22nd, 2010 at 10:05 pm
My best prediction -- for what it's worth -- is that some young'n will be the one who breaks the Hit record. Right now, it looks to me like Hanley Ramirez has the best shot to be the next one we look to do it -- in about a dozen years, he should {barring injury, of course} be a viable candidate.
December 22nd, 2010 at 10:06 pm
Also, Crawford is not only behind Pujols pace, but he also will have no late career DH/1b value, and his infield hits will diminish later on. All that base-stealing increases his chances for injuries also.
December 22nd, 2010 at 10:10 pm
@19, after nine years in the Majors, Crawford isn't even at 1500 hits, has a lifetime BA below .300, and his career OPS+ of 107 doesn't classify him as an elite hitter. He just came off his peak year, so he'll start trending down within a year or two. He won't even make 3,000 hits, let alone 4,000.
December 22nd, 2010 at 10:11 pm
I think Hanley Ramierz is way too far behind pace, and I think middle infielders have the lowest chance of getting there (aside from catchers).
Late career 1b/dh extension years will be key, for any player that isn't the Ichiro prototype. Pujols and Arod will get those years if they can stay healthy and if they want them.
December 22nd, 2010 at 10:28 pm
I don't know about Crawford, he played his first few years on crummy Rays teams, he had tons of pressure put on him as well. As for the base stealing, the Red Sox are not a SB club, with the exception of Ellsbury 2 years ago.
And Crawford has a Rickey-type physique. He's not to bulky, not to skinny. If he learns to slap it off the wall in Fenway, I could see him getting 200 hits this year.
Also, a sorta side note, since 1980 only 15 guys have gotten to 100 triples. 108 total and just 15 in the last 30 years. And 3 of those guys got most of their triples in the 70s, Rose, Carew, Templeton.
And no one has gotten to 150 triples since Clemente in 1970. Just 30 players since 1901 have at least 150 triples and only two of them played post integration, Musial and Clemente.
I think Crawford is a shoe-in for 150 and strangely enough, has more triples than homers, though that is not likely to continue.
I think Rollins and Reyes also have a chance at 150 three baggers, which to me, is by far the most exciting thing that can happen on a ball field.
December 22nd, 2010 at 10:35 pm
Interesting to note Carl Crawford specifically mentioned his quest for 3000 hits being a determining factor in his choosing to play for Boston.
December 22nd, 2010 at 11:09 pm
I'm just checking: The folks who are talking about Albert's shot at the HR record (or any other career marks) are not doing so within the confines of the "favorite toy" formula, right? 'Cause the formula only projects him to play 6 more years....
Not that the discussion should</em be constrained by James's formula. But it's extremely hard to project a 30-year-old player even 5 years into the future, much less the 8 or more Albert would need to pass Bonds for the HR record.
No one knows what Albert might do. But let's just take a quick look at the retired leaders in HRs through age 30:
-- Jimmie Foxx had more HRs than Albert by age 30, 429-408, and more of everything else but doubles. After one more year, Foxx started to decline. Then the war came, which cost him about 2 years. His last good year (by general standards, not his) came at 33. He finished with 534 HRs, and didn't come close to any other MLB career records.
-- Junior Griffey had even more HRs than Foxx by age 30, 438 -- a record at the time. He played 10 more years, but added less than 200 HRs, finishing with 630.
-- Mickey Mantle had 404 HRs through age 30, just behind Albert, and had smacked 54 at age 29. Mantle finished with 536.
-- Eddie Mathews, 399 ... 512.
-- Frank Robinson, 373 (including a monster Triple Crown season at age 30) ... 586.
-- Mel Ott, 369 ... 511.
-- Hank Aaron, 366 ... 755.
-- Juan Gonzalez, 362 ... 434.
Those are the 8 retired players who were at least halfway to 714 through age 30. One did reach the mountaintop; but just one more reached even 600. As a group, these 8 men averaged 393 HRs through age 30. They averaged 170 more HRs for the rest of their career, with only 2 topping 200. Their average career total was 562 HRs.
One more name to toss on the pile, though he's not officially done yet:
-- Andruw Jones had 368 HRs through age 30. In the last 3 years, he's hit just 39 HRs.
Meanwhile:
-- Mays had 319 HRs through age 30, finished with 660.
-- Ruth had 309, finished with 714.
-- Bonds had 292, finished with 762.
-- Sosa had 336, finished with 609.
-- Thome had 282 ... he's got 589 and counting.
But maybe I should have just put it this way:
-- Top 10 retired players in HRs through age 30: Foxx, Mantle, Mathews, Robinson, Ott, Aaron, Gonzalez, Sosa, Killebrew, Kiner (329).
-- Top 10 retired players in HRs after age 30: Bonds, Ruth, Aaron, Palmeiro, McGwire, Mays, Galarraga, Jackson, Sauer, Stargell (279).
There's just one player on both lists. Why? It's partly the difficulty of sustaining excellence for 15+ years; partly randomness. But there's also this: Most of the players on each list got there during favorable eras; but favorable eras don't usually last more than 15 years. We have (possibly) seen the end of a long, happy time for home-run hitters. Pujols caught the 2nd half of this era. But if the Teens turn out like the '60s or '70s, it will be a lot harder for him to maintain his counting stats.
It's fun to talk about Pujols breaking records -- but in the end, projecting the career totals of a 30-year-old player is basically guesswork.
December 22nd, 2010 at 11:13 pm
Jimbo,
As far as at least one of your arguments goes, there was a second baseman who started in '63 that no one thought would have a chance of breaking Cobbs' record.
Pete Rose was the kids' name.
December 22nd, 2010 at 11:45 pm
first off, it is clear mr james' seasons left formula is subjective and not put on a sound mathematical basis except for, perhaps, a basic probability measure based on a simple mean career length. also, the # of hits formula given is a simple summation formula, the application of which i see no need for, and it is again lacking any sound mathematical basis.
to accurately predict the number of seasons left for a player, you have to firstly recognize that average career lengths have changed over time, and that they vary by skill level which is easily estimated (not to mention the probability of playing x seasons given having played x seasons). just limiting the pool to career lengths of players since 1990 with career OPS+ over 110 and having played at least 5 seasons, for example, will provide you with a much more accurate estimation of how many seasons jeter would have left, and it would take about 15 minutes. lastly, since pay is so high, many players will hang on as long as possible, and teams looking for roi will sign marketable players above their production value, incentivizing them to hang around. jeter is under contract for longer than mr james' predicted value. i doubt many fans think jeter will be out of the game within three seasons as mr. james' formula predicts. jeter has so far played 14+ seasons and most people probably think he will play over 20 seasons, or at least 5+ more seasons.
December 22nd, 2010 at 11:59 pm
Jeter is what, 100 hits behind Yount through age 36?
Jeter has become bigger than baseball so I see him playing as long as he wants. Even when he averages 140 hits a year with even more brutal %s over his current 3 year deal
December 23rd, 2010 at 12:26 am
I also think that he's to old to beat Pete's record. 36 is quite an age, even for baseball.
December 23rd, 2010 at 12:27 am
@30, Jason -- Since your study would only take 15 minutes, would you mind running it and posting your results? I can wait up a little while....
If it's too late to run the study right now, maybe you'd like to guess how many times in the last 3 years any player age 37 or older has had at least 502 PAs, or how many did it last year.
We don't have to believe that the Bill James formula accurately predicts Jeter's career length in order to realize that his chance of breaking Rose's record is slim to the point of invisibility. I know there's a natural tendency to assume that whatever has been happening recently will continue to happen, but if you really look at baseball careers throughout history (and not just since 1990), you'll begin to grasp how very rare it is for any player to keep playing well enough and long enough past age 36 to amass even half the hits that Jeter would need to catch Rose.
And if James's simple summation formula is no good for projecting future hits, would you please tell us a more accurate one?
Lastly, what position do you see Jeter playing in 2014? Or 2016? Or do you see him with another team? I'm just trying to imagine the specific circumstances under which he gets enough PAs to reach 4,000 hits and beyond.
My own expectations:
-- Jeter doesn't play 80 games at SS in any season after 2013.
-- Jeter doesn't play at all after 2015.
-- Jeter finishes with fewer than 3,800 hits.
(And my own personal rule: When fans make projections, always bet the under.)
December 23rd, 2010 at 12:28 am
Hit leaders age 37 and up:
1. Cap Anson 1314
2. Pete Rose 1290
3. Sam Rice 1131
4. Honus Wagner 942
5. Jim O'Rourke 903
6. Carl Yastrzemski 860
7. Paul Molitor 827
8. Carlton Fisk 819
9. Omar Vizquel 817
10. Craig Biggio 765
Jeter's got to have the all-time top finish off all time to do it. Its hard to project something that's never been done before. Rose and Anson each played until they were 45... at 1B. Anson's final years were in one of the the highest offensive eras in history.
December 23rd, 2010 at 1:04 am
Anson's career was pretty remarkable, when you consider he never played 100 games in a season until age 32, and the seasons were much shorter then. Only from ages 36-40 did he manage to play 130+ games per season.
One thing about some players today is that they keep themselves fit and they weight train and stretch and get massages and physiotherapy and take supplements or "supplements" and all sorts of things that players like Jimmie Foxx and Mickey Mantle never did. I've heard Albert Pujols is a very hard worker and fitness type guy, and those things can lead to playing longer. He also plays a low injury position (1b) and doesn't steal alot of bases, and has a history of not being injured. Not many of the players listed in the previous list have much of those things going for them. Bonds did, and look where it got him...
I agree with John Autin's predictions about Jeter, unless by chance, 2010 was just a fluke off year and he hits .315 again in 2011. We'll have to wait and see.
December 23rd, 2010 at 1:19 am
Jimbo:
@16, "Power hitters and finesse pitchers seem the most durable."
I'm curious about how you studied this. I would think that a lot depends on how you define those terms, particularly the last one, and especially with regard to "finesse" pitchers.
Does "durable" mean staying healthy, or continuing to play in the majors for a long time? They're not the same thing.
Is a "finesse" pitcher one with a mediocre fastball, or one who "pitches to contact"?
If durable means staying healthy, and finesse means a soft tosser, this may be true.
But if durable means lasting a long time in MLB, and finesse means a lower K rate, then I'd like to see the data. What current or recent low-K pitchers have had long careers?
Bill James published a study of this years ago (which I haven't seen refuted), showing that low-K pitchers as a group have shorter careers than high-K pitchers, for the simple reason that K rate is a major factor in big-league success. Very few pitchers can succeed for long with a low K rate. K rates tend to decline with age, so a pitcher who starts out with a low K rate will tend to drop below the survival threshold sooner than a high-K pitcher.
I think the majority of "one-year wonders," or pitchers who have just a few years of success, are not blazers who burn out, but junkers who got lucky for a while or who couldn't maintain the peak command necessary to succeed with an average fastball. And the great majority of 200-game winners had (at least) above-average K rates.
December 23rd, 2010 at 1:22 am
@35, Jimbo -- Can you say a little more about the connection between base-stealing and injury? I haven't noticed the correlation. Some guys obviously do get hurt when stealing; but then, plenty of "lumberjacks" get hurt, too.
I could toss off a lot of names of base-stealers who played a long time, but that would be cherry-picking -- I haven't done a study. And of course I'm aware of some counterpoints who didn't last so long, like Vince Coleman. I'm just wondering if you have some data. (I'll check back tomorrow. Good night, all.)
December 23rd, 2010 at 1:24 am
(Forgot to post the answer to my "brain teaser" @33:
In the past 3 seasons, there were just 7 qualifying hitter-seasons at age 37 or older. Last year, Raul Ibanez was the only one.)
December 23rd, 2010 at 1:45 am
Well, I've used logic and observation than statistics, since I'm not all that proficient with the search tools that might find this out. I'll use mostly recent players as examples.
Observation: Finesse pitchers who've lasted into their 40's. Wakefield, Hough (knucklers), Moyer, Maddux, Glavine, David Wells. Pitchers who locate well, and have good change-ups seem to be in this list.
Logic: Finesse pitchers don't rely on power pitches or powerful sharp breaking balls. Those pitches seem likely to induce more injuries, and also it would seem that players who pitch more of a finesse style, will not be hurt so much if their velocity is lost.
Power pitchers I find are often flame-outs. Ryan, Clemens, and Johnson are exeptions. Ryan and Clemens were both workout fanatics, Clemens used steroids, and all 3 of these pitchers had such great stuff that even when they lost 5-10% of their velocity, they were still above average.
Observation: Power hitters lasting long (note, some of these players appear capable of playing longer, but didn't due to tarnished images): Bonds, Thome, Palmeiro, Winfield, Murray, Aaron, Mays, Williams, Musial. Heck even Matt Stairs keeps getting contracts. Manny Ramirez has been very healthy up until this year. Most of these guys played 1b or corner outfield, and most didn't steal much later in their careers or at all.
Logic: In this case I'm using the logic argument more. I think from a physiological standpoint power is easier to maintain than speed. You'll notice that most of the best base stealers of all time led the league numerous times early in their careers, but not later, whereas home run hitters often lead the league in their 30's or even mid/late thirties. Also, power hitters tend to play positions and styles that lead to less injuries. DH and 1b, and not much base-stealing/throwing/diving/sliding will lead to less injuries, that seems logical. Old guys that stick around to DH are usually power hitters. Most players that rely on speed (for base-stealing, defense, and infield hits) suffer greatly when that speed is diminshed. Power often doesn't diminish, as often some of the longest home runs are hit by 35+ year olds, but how often are the fastest baserunners 35+? If you can still hit for power, there's a DH or 1b spot somewhere out there for you.
December 23rd, 2010 at 2:00 am
Bill James' Favorite Toy isn't too helpful when trying to predict "outliers," which is exactly what Derek Jeter would have to become in order to break the hit record, just as Henry Aaron was an outlier and Pete Rose was an outlier. No model would ever predict that type of longevity or production in the latter years.
The biggest strike against Jeter establishing a new hit record was his most recent performance in 2010. He showed a substantial decline from his 2009 season, suggesting age impacted his skills during his age 35/36 season. Considering he produced .300+ BAs, and 120 OPS+ seasons with a near metronome-like consistency the prior fourteen seasons, his off-key season in 2010 should be viewed with concern. In order to be an outlier and to challenge Rose's hit record, Jeter would need to maintain his previous high level of production for another three or four seasons, and then maintain a gentle fade into his 40s. The large drop off last year suggests he'll achieve neither.
Now, I've been watching and researching baseball long enough to not overreact to any single season, especially when dealing with a very talented, HOF-level player. Even if age did cause his off season, he could very well make adjustments that puts him on track again for a couple more seasons. In 1974, after nine straight .300 seasons, including a league-leading .338 BA the prior year, Pete Rose collapsed all the way to .284. Considering he was 33, I'm sure some people thought age was creeping into his game. He rebounded to hit .317 the next year and cranked along for another five seasons, before once again collapsing to .282 at age 39, yet he rebounded again to hit .325 at age 40.
Luke Appling did the same as Rose, collapsing to .262 at age 35, after nine straight .300 seasons. There was reason to believe he had entered his decline. He bounced back to lead the league in batting at 36, went off to serve in WWII for two years, and amazingly came back and hit .300 or better for another five seasons, playing until 43.
Perhaps Jeter has a rebound in him like a Rose or an Appling. He is already an outlier performing as he has in 2009, and even 2010. I hope so. It'll make for an interesting story as I always enjoy watch aging players hold off father time, especially after an off season, revisiting past greatness for a season or two as they glide in toward 40. Yet even if Jeter has this in him, he still has almost no chance of breaking Rose's record because unlike Rose, Jeter is only a short stop, and his skill set won't translate well to being a DH, as it would for someone like A-Rod. So even if he holds off time for a few more years, once he starts to fade, he doesn't have a logical position to move to. The Yankees will also begin to sit him more to give him rest, and as he slips, will move him down in the order, further reducing his hit chances. Last, the Yankees are NOT a sentimental organization when it comes to players. Once he's no longer productive he will be moved out of the line up on a regular basis. Jeter would have to take his act on the road, just as Rose did, and I don't see Jeter doing that at all.
I think Jeter finishes somewhere right around 3,500 hits, retiring after 2014.
December 23rd, 2010 at 2:14 am
One final note about the Jeter thing.
The only way he can get near 4000 or Rose, is he has to at least want to, admit he wants to and be willing to.
He has never answered a question directly about that and it is probably to early for a reporter to ask him.
For Jeter, or anyone for that matter attempting to break Rose's record they have to be able to admit at some point, that the RECORD is what is being played for, there can be no other plausible reason for a 44 year old Jeter to be playing. I think it was pretty obvious that Rose's last few seasons were played simply to get the record. I don't think if he had 3847 hits would he player manage the Reds. He was also in a position as Cincy's favorite son, to insert himself into favorable pitching match-ups in a town where the media is not as unforgiving than New York's.
There is also the fact that no matter what people say here, we have to accept that he can certainly, no question about it, break Rose's mark. The only question is at what price.
We have seen dozens of players play well into there 40s, many of them well. But again at what price?
I wonder would of Rose continued his pursuit if his lifetime BA would of fell below .300?
I wonder If Rose would of kept going if the Reds cut him?
I don't think Jeter will play else where, and the Yankees are not going to give him much playing time if he really starts to go south. There is just no room on that roster or for the fan's high expectations to cary dead weight.
Last year, the Yankees had money to burn for an injured Nick Johnson, a part time Marcus James, a platooning Lance Berkman, a bench/utility Austin Kearns, a 400 PA Jorge Posada - all guys who would start on a small market club.
Jeter has expressed interest in owning a club. I think his post career goals are going to loom large after Jeter's contract expires.
His biggest obstacle might be that the Yankees have first locked up for 5 more years with Tex, third for 6 more years with A-rod and Giradi seems to enjoy a DH by committee, leaving few spots to hide Jeter.
So will he leave the Yanks after his contract to chase Cobb and Rose, I think it depends firstly if he can pull off 500+ hits the next three seasons, 600+ if the Yankees pick up his option.
After that, money and championships and the Hall will all be had, just a matter of what he is willing to do and for how long.
December 23rd, 2010 at 2:36 am
Generally true Jimbo, though how long power remains, & especially unprecedented power late in a career, has also been heavily effected by PEDs for some years. While there will always be ways to cheat, now there are risks & consequences which included public humiliation.
Clearly it is very hard for players to reach the projected records postulated above. It is almost unfair to predict these things for great players, especially if they are clean. Even with the DH, to find guys like Jeter willing & able to hang on, much diminished, for so long is pretty unlikely. Pujols has had injuries & odds are clearly against him, especially since the era has shifted away from offense. He should be considered to have done very well to hit 700.
December 23rd, 2010 at 6:31 am
Some of the posters seem to forget the James calls his projection a toy and not a tool for good reason--he knows it isn't a way of getting accurate projections. It is fun to play with, but not meant as he has stated, as anything but a toy.
December 23rd, 2010 at 10:00 am
Ichiro is the ultimate hit machine. Tons of hits, very few walks. Batting him first in the lineup because of his speed gives him nearly 700 ABs every year and pretty much a guaranteed 200+ hits. Over only 10 MLB seasons he's reached 2244. If you figure he missed out on 1000 hits by not playing here since the beginning, and I think that's a conservative estimate, then he would be only 1012 hits behind Rose entering his age 37 season. Very doable. He'll have to settle for 3000 as a milestone, but who knows, maybe he could have reached 4500 as a full-time MLB player.
December 23rd, 2010 at 10:45 am
Ichiro had 1278 hits in his Japanese career. Added to the 2244 hits he has in his major league career, that gives him 3522 at this point of his professional career through age 36. He very well could 'break' Pete Rose's record in another five years, and this is being conservative. I wonder how this is going to ercognized, if it even is.
December 23rd, 2010 at 11:41 am
@43, Mark -- I'm not sure anyone here is really treating the "favorite toy" as a mathematically sound actuarial model.
On the other hand, while there probably exist better methods for projecting career totals, I haven't seen any of them posted on this thread. (Jason @30 threatened to show us something, but hasn't come through yet, and perhaps his "15 minutes" are up.)
I like how Robert_M put it @40:
"Bill James' Favorite Toy isn't too helpful when trying to predict 'outliers,' which is exactly what Derek Jeter would have to become in order to break the hit record, just as Henry Aaron was an outlier and Pete Rose was an outlier. No model would ever predict that type of longevity or production in the latter years." (emphasis added)
December 23rd, 2010 at 11:57 am
#28/John Autin Says: "-- Jimmie Foxx had more HRs than Albert by age 30, 429-408, and more of everything else but doubles. After one more year, Foxx started to decline. Then the war came, which cost him about 2 years. His last good year (by general standards, not his) came at 33..."
Actually, WWII didn't cost Foxx playing time, he was going through a divorce in 1943 and wanted to keep his income down until it was finalized. WWWII actually HELPED his playing time, as he pitched and filled in at several positions for the war-depleted 1945 Phillies.
#41/ Yes, I think it (pursuit of hit record) is going to come down to how willing Jeter is to play other positions, or possibly play on another team. What may be most important is how willing he is to take a MASSIVE pay cut after 2013.
I'm guessing that he finishes 2013 with about 3400 hits, plays part-time for two more years as a "super-utility" guy, and finishes between Speaker and Musial as #5 on the all-time hit list.
December 23rd, 2010 at 12:49 pm
"What records does Jeter have to aim for?"
I think he has a pretty good chance of breaking Hank Aaron's record of 17 consecutive seasons with 150 or more hits.
December 23rd, 2010 at 2:02 pm
@47, Lawrence Azrin -- Thanks for the correction on Foxx. I saw the 1943-44 gap and just assumed it was service time.
I suspect that the Phillies would have found playing time for Foxx in '45 even without the wartime roster depletion, given their perennial futility both in the standings and at the gate. They drew less than 232,000 fans in both 1940 and '41, and finished at least 50 games out of 1st each year (and at least 15 games out of 7th). Granted, 1B Nick Etten was one of their few good hitters in that era, but given all the other holes on the roster, they could have worked something out.
P.S. Gotta love that 1.59 ERA in 1945, no matter what the level of competition. And BTW, what pitcher opposed Foxx in his only MLB win? Had to be Howie Fox, the only other "fox" in the NL that year.
December 23rd, 2010 at 2:05 pm
@48, Frank -- I'm hoping that was tongue-in-cheek. If not, well ... sure, it's a "record" -- but I'd be shocked if there were 10 other people who knew that before reading it here.
December 23rd, 2010 at 2:21 pm
John Autin, So the chance that not everyone is aware of this record means it should only be mentioned tongue-in-cheek?
I am surprised for stats parsers that this is thought of as unknown.
Perhaps it is that you don't see this singular accomplishment as an accomplishment.
We are talking hits, right? This is something that only one player in major league history has achieved, and that one player is one of the greatest hitters of all-time, but really it is a joke and not worth serious mention?
This record has in fact been found on lists of MLB records that are/have been thought to be unbreakable. (And of course regardless of how I think about Jeter's chances of breaking it, thus far it has not been broken and using the formula above Jeter would not break it).
Gee, sorry to have brought it to your attention.
December 23rd, 2010 at 3:10 pm
@ Frank # 48
Not a mile stone, but Jeter either has or will have the most seasons of double digit homers and steals...
December 23rd, 2010 at 3:24 pm
#49/John Autin Says: "@47, Lawrence Azrin -- Thanks for the correction on Foxx. I saw the 1943-44 gap and just assumed it was service time.
I suspect that the Phillies would have found playing time for Foxx in '45 even without the wartime roster depletion, given their perennial futility both in the standings and at the gate..."
You're welcome! As for 1945, you may be correct, the Phillies certainly could've used any boost for attendance they could find, especially from a former star in that city; I didn't consider that. As for the missing years of 1943-44, another explanation is that in early 1942, he got hit in the head, which led to debilitating sinus headaches. It could've take him a couple years to fully get over it.
It's fun to conjecture "WHAT IF??" here - if he could've played full-time in 1942-1945, against war-depleted pitching, close to his 1940-41 levels, he might be the all-time career RBI leader, as well as higher up in a number of other offensive categories; he wouldn't even have turned 38 by the end of the 1945 season. Just goes to show you the perils in projecting any player's performance out over their entire career (as with Jeter...).
December 23rd, 2010 at 4:27 pm
Where is Jeter in relation to Rose's Plate appearance record which is one of the greatest outlier's in the record book. Off hand he needs 8 or 9 years to catch him in this. The question is what happens when he can't play SS any more and doesn't hit well enough to play another position. Rose played 1B for quite a few years when he didn't hit like one.
December 23rd, 2010 at 5:01 pm
@51, Frank -- I meant no offense. I honestly thought you were making a joke, and here's why:
You responded to my question, "What records does Derek Jeter have to shoot for?" I posed that question in the context of, What records might motivate him to extend his career as long as possible? So when you mentioned the 150-hits record, I thought you were joking -- because I don't think Derek Jeter knows there is such a record exists, and I don't think there's any chance that it could influence his future actions.
I wasn't mocking you for knowing that record, or for taking it seriously. Heck, I'm sure I know some records that Derek Jeter neither knows nor cares about.
December 23rd, 2010 at 5:36 pm
People think I was joking about Rose being a middle infielder; but remember, he spent less than half of his career in the pastures. He started out as a second baseman, then after his outfield days was a top quality third baseman {toward the end of the Big Red Machine era}, and then as a first sacker for several years.
I can see Jeter doing something akin to that --moving on to first later in his career if he is close to 4000 hits, even though I really can't imagine him sitting still for a DH job.
December 23rd, 2010 at 7:07 pm
If only you would realize how stupid your article is.
I think he has ZERO chance but not because he had his 2 worst full seasons in the last 3 seasons. 1 season '08 was hampered with a hand injury in mid May that effected him for a reported 60 games. How do you calculate that in?
My reasoning is simple. Why would he want to stay that long? It's not like he needs the money. He has already seen that the spawn of "The Boss" is nothing like his father- you know, the guy who built the Empire. Why would HANKenSTEIN want to imulate him?
I hope he has 3 banner seasons putting him in 2nd place all-time in the AL behind Cobb and tells the jerk know in charge to go pound sand and call it a career. 5 yrs later he will be enshrined.
December 23rd, 2010 at 9:18 pm
I also remember an article in the Sporting News {in 1967, I think} in which predictions were made about who -- if anyone -- would be the one to break Babe Ruth's "magic" 714 home run record. A lot of great hitters -- Mays, Mathews, Banks, Mantle and Frank Robinson to name the better known names mentioned -- each of whom had at least a slight chance to make it. Strangely, the one most notable omission to that list was Henry Aaron, the only one to do it until Barry Bonds came around.
December 23rd, 2010 at 9:38 pm
Jimbo @ #39.
I respectfully disagree with your definition of a power hitter.
The guys you listed were great hitters, the ability to hit for power just being a small part of a greater skill.
Mark Reynolds is a power hitter, Rob Deer was a power hitter. When these guys start losing their one attribute, they'll be out of baseball faster than you can spell it.
December 23rd, 2010 at 11:07 pm
Jeter won't play long enough to do it. I just don't see Jeter in his early-mid 40s trying to chip away at the record---------and I don't see the Yankees sending him out there with diminished skills everyday to do it... and Jeter won't play elsewhere.
December 23rd, 2010 at 11:42 pm
Why be so mean & petty Mick? Especially when decrying the elder Steinbrenner, who is known for similar ugliness.
You can always just say why you think he will not attain the record. Which I agree with, though by definition it is not zero chance. There are also many possible motivations to continue, & if he has a DH opportunity, if records are very important to him, if he does not mind & has the opportunity of performing like Rose his last 8 years (whose WAR was well below replacement level), if he decides to go elsewhere...
I doubt this will happen, but these are several combined ways her could keep going, even if not very good. Regardless, contrast your tone with the civility of most everyone else on this site. We are not kids calling each other names from a safe distance here.
December 24th, 2010 at 12:09 am
Pujols is a power hitter in the same class as williams and musial. Rob deer and guys like him don't lose their power as much as they flat out lose their limited ability to hit the ball.
December 24th, 2010 at 12:16 am
Reaching out again to Frank @48:
I realize my tone @50 sounded smug. At that moment, I was only thinking of whether Jeter would be motivated by the record you cited. Please don't be offended.
December 24th, 2010 at 1:38 am
I think Jeter's biggest obstacle to reaching the hit record is that 2010 was not an off year which may signify the beginning of a decline, but 2009 was a fluke year that interrupted what has been a steady downward flow in Jeter's production since 2006. Pull our 2009, and Jeter's OPS+ numbers are 132, 121, 102, 90. His BA is .343, .322, .300, and .270. His SLG is .483, .452, .408, .370. His OBP tells the same story .417, .388, .363, .340. His home run numbers are 14, 12, 11, 10. His hit totals are 214, 206, 179, 179. It seems very likely that Jeter will struggle to hit .250 in 2011, and lose his full time job in the next two to three years. His career, I would think, is almost over.
December 24th, 2010 at 5:09 am
Wouldn't it be a better time to pose this question if Jeter had 3,772 hits?
December 24th, 2010 at 11:22 am
What @64 said. Over the last three years, Jeter has an OPS+ of 106. Over the equivalent three years in Pete Rose's career, Rose had an OPS+ of 129. (For more comparison, Jeter's career OPS+ is 119; Rose's through age 36 was 126. It gets worse for Jeter: his OPS+ through age 23 was 101, Rose's was 91, so that weighs down the career figures, which favor Rose from age 24 onward.) Jeter is +29 runs in the offensive stats of WAR over the last three years; Rose from age 34-36 was +77. Rose was a better hitter throughout his career overall, and was a much better hitter at age 36.
This makes Rose's feat even more remarkable, when you think about it. His hitting ability held up into his late 30s without steroids (I assume he was on greenies, on which everyone in baseball was in that era), and he did this in a hitting environment that was much worse than that of Derek Jeter's. And the guy who held the record before Rose was a better hitter than Rose and Jeter combined.
BTW: the link to Pete Rose in the article proper goes to RePete Rose, who doesn't deserve to be mentioned in the same sentence with Jeter or his father, at least when talking baseball.
December 24th, 2010 at 2:10 pm
I also remember an article in the Sporting News {in 1967, I think} in which predictions were made about who -- if anyone -- would be the one to break Babe Ruth's "magic" 714 home run record. A lot of great hitters -- Mays, Mathews, Banks, Mantle and Frank Robinson to name the better known names mentioned -- each of whom had at least a slight chance to make it. Strangely, the one most notable omission to that list was Henry Aaron
Interesting. Let's see what the Favorite Toy would have said, going into the '67 season:
Aaron, 33 yo, 442 HR: 7% chance to reach 715, 0% for 755
Mays, 36 yo, 542 HR: 15% for 715, 45% for 660
F. Robinson, 31 yo, 373 HR: 11% for 715, 48% for 586
H. Killebrew, 31 yo, 336 HR: 4% for 715, 37% for 573
Mantle, 35 yo, 496 HR: 0% for 715, 94% for 536
Mathews, 35 yo, 493 HR: 0% for 715, 97% for 512
Banks, 36 yo, 419 HR: 0% for 715, 5% for 512
Colavito, 33 yo, 358 HR: 0% for 715, 97% for 374 (I never realized he was not too far off the pace of these other legends at that time. But he was basically done after '66.)
So if I've done my math correctly, there was about a 1 in 3 chance at that point that one of Aaron, Mays, Robinson, or Killebrew would break the record, though individually they were all longshots.
December 24th, 2010 at 3:17 pm
1966 was Aaron's first year in Atlanta. Milwaukee was a bad home park for HR, Atlanta a good one. So in what should have been decline years his totals stayed high because he was in a more favorable environment. Favorite Toy doesn't see this of course, but go forward a couple of years, so that you are only using Atlanta years in the prediction, and the chance to reach 715 will go way up.
December 24th, 2010 at 4:52 pm
True Kd. Though from '67-'73, ages 33-39, Aaron did better than his career average in OPS +, & seemingly that average to date. That should account for park effects, so Aaron, who seemed to grow a gut by the end, hit at a high level late in his career, without PEDs or modern conditioning.
December 26th, 2010 at 9:20 pm
2.4 seasons? He just signed a three year deal! That completely invalidates this entire thing.
December 26th, 2010 at 9:30 pm
It matters a lot if a player zeroes in on a goal and has a playing situation which allows him to go for it: Rose for the hits, Aaron for the homers (as he pulled within range, Aaron's average dropped but his homer frequency went up).
I would bet that no shortstop ever gets close to 4,000 career hits.
In fact, I'm pretty sure Jeter holds the record for most hits as a shortstop right now. A lot of Honus Wagner's hits came as an outfielder.
December 29th, 2010 at 1:09 pm
My guess would be that he has a better chance at breaking the runs record than the hits record, not that I think he'll break that. Using the favorite toy, it projects him to 1920 runs, which would be 10th all time. I think that's definitely low, since his 3 year multiplier was 88 runs, 2nd lowest of his career.
Using that projection, he would be 375 runs short going into his 39 y/o season. Scoring runs is less of an individual task than getting hits, and being that Jeter plays for, and will likely play for, a top 3 offense, my guess would be that he'll end up at least in the neighborhood of 2100 runs, if not more.