Derek Jeter Chasing Pete Rose?
Posted by Chris J. on February 5, 2008
Interesting Rosenthal article about Jeter's chances to catch Pete Rose's hit record. (Bonus: Rosentahl uses Bill James's Favorite Toy). Let's look at the PI and see what it says.
Well, Derek Jeter just finished his age 33 season, and based on that he's 18th all-time on the hit list through that age. Then again, Pete Rose was 22nd.
That's not entirely fair -- had he been born a week later, he would've just finished his age 32 season. Pesky June/July bubble. I realize that the June 30 / July 1 cut-off is the most sensible mark, but for people within a few days of it (as is the case with Jeter) it obscures as much as it illuminates.
Jeter has 2356 hits. Only six men have gotten that many hits though age 32 (and only 3 made it to 3,000!?!?).
Impressive, eh? Well, he needs 1900 more hits. Not only is Pete Rose the only man to do that through age 34-onward, but only a trio have more than 1500 from that point onward. Ouch. Apparently, aging hurts players.
Move Jeter's birthday back by a week, and now three men have done it, but no one else is close.
Obviously, the odds are against him, but if he stays healthy and consistent, he's got a shot. He's lead-off hitter in a great line-up so should get plenty of at bats.
February 5th, 2008 at 5:29 pm
I've always wondered if anyone has ever done a study on the accuracy of the "Favorite Toy".
What percentage of players given a 30% chance to reach a goal by the "Favorite Toy" actually reach that goal?
February 6th, 2008 at 9:51 am
This raises the question about how much longer Derek Jeter will play shortstop. There aren't many players on these lists who played the most demanding defensive position (except for catcher). There may be both offensive as well as defensive reasons for DJ to find a new position.
Robin Yount is 4th on the list of players with 2356 hits through age 32. After age 28, however, he was an outfielder.
Derek is 430 hits ahead of Honus Wagner through age 33. And Wagner is one of the 5 -- check the typo -- who collected 1500 hits (1669) beginning age 33. But since, alas, one can be 33 only once, Wagner's comparison to Jeter should credit Wagner with 1489 from Jeter's current age onward.
Forget Pete Rose. If DJ can equal Honus Wagner's hit total, that would be an historic accomplishment.
February 6th, 2008 at 10:00 am
Health is definitely key. One injured season and the chance is gone. And Jeter's overall health as it relates to his longevity is important, too. If Jeter can play until he's 45, he only needs to average about 150 hits a season.
If he lasts just another 9 or 10 years, I think he'll be out of time. Because even without injury, he would still need to average more hits per season - in his decline years - than he averaged in the first half of his career (even adjusting for 2003 when he missed 30+ games).
It's possible, but not probable. There have only been 61 200-hit seasons occurring after age 33, as opposed to 405 from age 32 and younger. There have been a good amount of 190 and 180-hit seasons (106, 199), but he would have to AVERAGE that amount.
Of course, if you change the age to 34, there are even less instances. Even 170 hits becomes a lot more harder to come by.
Then again, he's walking a bit less in the last few years, and just had his second best 3-year run of both total hits and batting average. So maybe he's got his eye on it.
If he does the extraordinary and reaches 4000 hits by age 42, he would only need some marginal late-career Julio Franco seasons to pass Rose. The only 3 players to have more than 256 hits after age 42 are Franco, Rose and Carlton Fisk. Only five have had over 200 (those 3, plus Yaz and Sam Rice again), and I would think Jeter would need more than that.
February 6th, 2008 at 10:02 am
I agree with David. He should switch positions if he wants to rack up those stats. Plus he's not a very good SS. Maybe he doesn't put up good enough power numbers to justify moving him to 1B or corner OF. Could he still play CF?
February 6th, 2008 at 12:09 pm
Thanks, Von. Maybe DJ could run the current guy off third base. (Just a joke.)
February 6th, 2008 at 12:24 pm
Man, does this have to do with health and persistence!
To see where Albert Pujols ranks, I just ran a list of highest hit totals for 27-year-olds. Pujols is 18th, Jeter is 57th (behind Ted Simmons and Johnny Bench), and Pete Rose is 91st.
A-Rod is 5th among 27-year-olds, 4th among 31-year-olds. And A-Rod is 3rd in times on base for his current age (behind Ott and Foxx).
February 7th, 2008 at 8:39 pm
The unique advantage that Rose had in compiling his total was that Manager Rose could pencil player Rose's name into the lineup when his lack of productivity (particularly as a first baseman) no longer merited it.
February 7th, 2008 at 11:15 pm
Re: comment #7
Yea, I've heard that before, but I don't really buy it. He was Pete Rose in Cincinnati -- good luck finding that many managers willing to bench him when he approaches Cobb.
The danger spot for him was '84 when he came to Cincy. He hadn't played very well and looked to be at the end of his rope. Then he went batshit crazy upon his return - he actually had more 3-hit games than 0-hit games in those last six weeks. Heck, in the Cubs gave an aging Gary Gaetti a full-time job after a late '98 spurt that was less impressive, came after a worse season than Rose's most-of-1984, and Gaetti wasn't niether a local legend nor approaching an all-time great record.
Sealing the job, Rose actually had his batting average over .300 as late as June 9, 1985 - at that point he was within 50 of Ty Cobb's record. It didn't make any difference who his manager was - he was going to get enough playing time to seal the deal.
And he wasn't his own manager prior to his Cincy return.
February 8th, 2008 at 5:46 pm
4000 hits. 20 seasons of 200 hits. To get to Rose you need another 256 hits. Let's say you're goal is 4200 hits by the age of 42. If you end your 22-year-old season with 200 hits, you just need to get 200 hits twenty more times in a row. Get your 2000th hit by age 31 and your 3000th hit bt age 36. A number of players have kept this pace early on. But by age 33 only 10 players were still on this pace: Cobb, Hornsby, Aaron, Yount, Ott, Foxx, Crawford, Keeler, VADA PINSON!, and Musial all had 2400+ hits by the end of their 33-year-old season. Rose at that point at 2337. Jeter has 2356.
So Jeter definitely has a chance. But what other active players are on the pace I described above? ARod as 2250 hits at age 31 (250 hits ahead of the pace). Miguel Cabrera has 842 hits at 24 (242 hits ahead of the pace). Carl Crawford has 990 hits at 25 (190 hits ahead of the pace). Pujols has 1344 hits at 27 (144 hits ahead of the pace). Adrian Beltre has 1433 hits at 28 (33 hits ahead of the pace). Guerrero has 1972 hits at 31 (28 hits behind the pace). Edgar Renteria has 1934 hits at age 31 (66 hits behind the pace). Jimmy Rollins has 1307 hits at 28 (93 hits behind the pace).
If Jeter's age counts as 33, he is 44 hits behind the pace. If his age counts as 32, he is 156 hits ahead of the pace.
By the way, other interesting names that were way ahead of this pace early on include Kaline, Lindstrom, Hornsby and Medwick. And Buddy Lewis.
P.S. How outrageous is it that Cobb had nearly 1000 hits by the end of his 23-year-old season? And nearly 2000 hits by the end of his 28-year-old season? And 3000 hits by the end of his 34-year-old season?
February 9th, 2008 at 9:18 am
Chris-
Your point is well taken that when Pete got that close it would have been tough for any Cincy mgr to sit him. I still think its a little strange that he got played so much by any mgr as a first baseman. Here are his slugging averages from age 38 (1979) on when he became a full time first baseman:
.430, .354, .390, .338, .286, .337, .319,.270- Few successful teams are able to overcome that lack of productivity at first base.
'shoes