32 Responses to “Derek Jeter & Bernie Williams @ 36”

1. Neil L Says:
   September 12th, 2010 at 3:20 pm

   Love the entertainment analogy, Steve...

   In the live-messaging during many Yankee games on other sites I've seen fans complaining about Jeter's lack of productivity in key situations but I hadn't realized it had gotten that bad.

   Variables that should be related to a highly negative RE, I think, are:
   (i) wiping out a baserunner as part of a double play (Jeter this year)
   (ii) being part of a pretty good team offense, at least in terms of OBP
   (iii) boatloads of strikeouts (Soriano 2001)

   How could Brosius hide in the Yankee line-up for two years as an everyday player with those RE's.

   A pay cut is probably in order if Derek wants to stay a Yankee. His star has fallen.

2. Carl Says:
   September 12th, 2010 at 4:38 pm

   umm... what am I missing about this? The 2009 Robinson Cano hit .320 with good power, and he's sandwiched between Bernie Williams age 35 and Bernie Williams age 36?

   Is this query wrong? Is the statistic wrong? What does this mean?

3. DavidRF Says:
   September 12th, 2010 at 4:51 pm

   @2
   RE24 is a situational stat based on the base-out situation. Cano hit .376/.407/.609 with the bases empty. He hit .255/.288/.415 with runners on base and .207/.242/.332 with RISP. That explains why he's low for this particular stat which is just one slice of his performance for that year.

4. Steve Lombardi Says:
   September 12th, 2010 at 4:53 pm

   RE24, or "Base-Out Runs Added," is the difference in run expectancy between the start of the play and the end of the play. That difference is then credited/debited to the batter and the pitcher.

   So, I would imagine that it tells us, to some extent, when a player's stats are somewhat hollow, for lack of a better word.

   In the case of Cano, in 2009, yes, he hit will overall - but, how did he do in situations where a run would normally be produced? Probably not well - despite hitting .320 overall. Let me check.

5. Steve Lombardi Says:
   September 12th, 2010 at 4:55 pm

   David posted as I was typing! 😉 Thanks for the RISP number - that's the ticket.

6. Neil L Says:
   September 12th, 2010 at 5:36 pm

   Steve, or others, is RE inning-independent or does it include some kind of leverage?

7. DavidRF Says:
   September 12th, 2010 at 6:09 pm

   @6
   No, its not inning or score dependent. There are a number of other stats in that table that are:

   http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/c/canoro01-bat.shtml#batting_win_probability

   Several leverage columns in that table. Either WPA or RE24/boLI would give you want you are asking. Hover over column names for more details.

   There certainly are lots of ways to slice the data. 🙂

8. Steve Lombardi Says:
   September 12th, 2010 at 6:36 pm

   FWIW, FanGraphs provides and example of RE24 here along with one reason why it's a stat worth looking at:

   http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/get-to-know-re24/

9. Raker Says:
   September 12th, 2010 at 6:41 pm

   It's hard to imagine what kind of deal Jeter is going to get this year. Maybe they will cut him like they did Bernie? I'm sure they won't but I can't believe that they will keep paying him $20M/yr.

10. Neil L Says:
    September 12th, 2010 at 7:36 pm

    @7 @8
    Steve and David, got it, I think.

    But Jeter's RE24/boLI is negative for the first time since his rookie season! As well, it is 40.6 less than last year. How does one go from the penthouse to the outhouse so quickly?

11. Charles Saeger Says:
    September 12th, 2010 at 8:03 pm

    He's 36. His nearest comp is Robbie Alomar, who had stopped hitting at 34. That Jeter has finally stopped hitting shouldn't surprise us.

    FWIW, I ran a Marcel projection (and I hope I did it right), prorating Jeter's stats of 142 team games to 162. I came up with a 2011 of .277/.343/.391, which is an OPS+ of about 97. That's still enough to keep him in the league, with his past, even in light of his usual poor fielding. He gets his 3,000th hit around the All-Star break. And in a Yankee uniform; he's the most popular Yankee since Mickey Mantle. They won't just cut him loose.

12. Steve Lombardi Says:
    September 12th, 2010 at 8:31 pm

    Actually, Jeter this year reminds me of Biggio in 2002.

13. John Autin Says:
    September 12th, 2010 at 9:57 pm

    One major difference between Jeter and Bernie Williams: Bernie had his last good year at age 33 (141 OPS+, never above 108 in 4 years after that), whereas Jeter last year had one of his best seasons at age 35. I don't deny that he's in decline, as virtually every player his age is. But I'm a little surprised that, in all the talk of Jeter's off year, no one that I've heard has noted his .292 BABIP this year, in contrast to a career mark of .355. I'm sure the respected projection methods say otherwise, but it won't surprise me at all if Jeter bounces back next year with an OPS+ of 110 or above.

    P.S. A couple other differences between Bernie & Derek:
    -- Bernie never had good baseball instincts. Once his physical skills started to decline, his overall game was bound to go south. Jeter's superior baseball smarts might make him better able to compensate for what he's lost physically.
    -- Bernie had serious musical ambitions long before he finished playing ball, and that may have kept him from doing everything he might have done to prolong his baseball career. And I respect that. But from everything I know about Jeter, baseball (and the celebrity it brings him) is his life. I think he'll be far more determined than Bernie was to get everything he can out of his baseball career.
    -- Bernie was never on pace to impact any of the major career lists. But Jeter, who turned 36 a couple months ago, got his 2,900th hit today; he's 8th all-time in hits through age 36, and those ahead of him on that list include the top 5 in career hits (Rose, Cobb, Aaron, Musial, Speaker). I don't think even he dreams of catching Rose, and of course he never shows any personal statistical ambition. But cracking the top 10 in hits (Collins, 3,315) is well within reach, and even the top 5 is just 615 hits away. I have no doubt that Jeter will be motivated (privately) by every possible rung on that top-10 ladder. Heck, by the end of this year, he'll be 850-860 hits away from Aaron's #3 spot. I don't necessarily think he can catch Hank, but I think Jeter believes he can, and I think he wants to. Plus, the Yankees will always be in contention, they'll never make him take an embarrassing pay cut, and the fans will always love him. Those are big factors in how a player approaches his final years.

    P.P.S. I'm neither a Yankee fan nor a Jeter fan.

14. Jeremy Says:
    September 12th, 2010 at 10:31 pm

    Have to take issue with the Brosius diss. That guy was super clutch in the post season. He was a great pick-up for the team (I think for kenny rogers, no?) and this was an era when the Yanks didn't just buy an all star at every position. In October I would take the 98-01 Brosius over the 04-08 A-Rod. Obviously the 09 A-Rod blows Brosius away.

15. eorns Says:
    September 12th, 2010 at 11:05 pm

    I know pitchers' babip has been analyzed a lot (.300 is average with 7-10pt std dev's). But what about batters'? It is definitely more of a skill, but how much? How likely is it that Jeter's low babip (.292) relative to his career (.355, ranging from .315 to .396) is just bad luck?

16. Michael E Sullivan Says:
    September 13th, 2010 at 7:53 am

    I can't put my hands on a study right away, but I'm quite sure it's been demonstrated that batter BABIP predicts itself much better than pitcher BABIP, i.e. the correlation from year to year for a particular player is much higher. Which means it's more likely a decline in skill than just bad luck.

    I would imagine the variance is a hair smaller than that of pitcher's BABIP (because the variance due to whom you face is smaller for batters than pitchers, and the on-field play variance should be similar), but the potential skill difference is much wider for batters than for pitchers.

17. Tmckelv Says:
    September 13th, 2010 at 10:40 am

    Jeter will get a decent salary/contract because of his run at 3000 hits next year.

    He certainly is not helping himself with his performance this year (as he has been horrible since mid-May), but the main difference between Bernie and Jeter (@36) is the 2-year comparison as Jeter's 2009 was really great and Bernie had already had 2 down years (2003/2004) prior to his really bad 2005.

18. Tmckelv Says:
    September 13th, 2010 at 10:55 am

    Brosius did have a +34.9 RE24 in 1998 (his first season with Yanks) that led to 99 RBI from the number 9 spot. Combine that with the World Series HRs off Hoffman ('98)and Kim ('01), and the Yanks got more than they could have ever expected from him (even with those negative RE24 values in 1999-2000).

19. TheGoof Says:
    September 13th, 2010 at 12:26 pm

    Jeter has looked weak at times, but the BABIP doesn't surprise me. So it's not my imagination that he's got "line drive right at someone" fever. I think he'll bounce back. Maybe not to .320, but enough so that some people will want to pretend they never doubted him. But I've been wrong before...

20. eorns Says:
    September 13th, 2010 at 12:50 pm

    >>So it's not my imagination that he's got "line drive right at someone" fever.

    Actually I think it is your imagination. Just checked out his batted ball type stats and his line drive percentage is way down this year: 16.1% as opposed to a 20.2% career rate. He's hitting far more ground balls (66.1% vs 56.9% career) and fewer of his them are infield hits, as well. His GB/FB ratio is 3.69. His career mark had been 2.49. Those are big changes.

21. Howard Says:
    September 13th, 2010 at 1:03 pm

    I'd like to see the data run for Post Season Batting among Yankees (1996 and later) with a minimum of 100 AB. Everyone here in NYC is talking about how we should hold off judging Jeter until after the playoffs. It'd be a nice data set to have at the ready.

22. eorns Says:
    September 13th, 2010 at 1:11 pm

    Just looked a little further. It seems like his plate judgment is off. He's swinging at a lot more balls out of the strike zone (28.4% of pitches out of the zone, as compared to his 20.4% career mark) and swinging at fewer pitches in the zone (67.8% vs 73.6%). Interestingly, he's making more contact than his career average, but when you're hitting more bad pitches, you're going to get fewer hits.

23. Johnny Twisto Says:
    September 13th, 2010 at 3:13 pm

    I haven't watched as many games this season, especially of late, but Jeter has made a lot of terrible contact this season. He rarely seems to drive the ball. So the low BABIP is not a fluke. But I'll agree with John Autin that he is a smart ballplayer, and I will add that he is a proud player and a hardworking one. If there is a way for him to adjust and compensate, I think he will find it. I remember around 2002, he also seemed to have a long stretch when he never hit the ball hard, and it was an interesting contrast with Alfonso Soriano, who batted right in front of him and always seemed to smack the ball. Obviously Jeter came out of that lull alright. Certainly he's older now but I don't expect that it will be a straight downward slope for him from this point.

24. Matt Y Says:
    September 13th, 2010 at 3:22 pm

    Jeter's clearly in a funk and has been since early June. He's hitting lots of weak grounders leading to lots of GDP, his plate coverage and eye for strike zone is off, and I think he's actually lost a step and isn't getting quite as many infield hits --add that up and you have .260. He's also jumping at the ball a lot. I agree, now is not the time to judge him or move him --if he keeps this up right through playoffs, this will require watching early next season --I would not be shocked if he bounces back with a 3-4 WAR season, but if he hits like he has been April-June next year, they'll have to drop him to 7th hole after All-Star break and 3000 hit.

25. John Autin Says:
    September 13th, 2010 at 4:59 pm

    I think the statistical indicators are mixed. Here are a few more that suggest he hasn't changed as much as his BA suggests:
    -- Jeter's BA on balls hit to the infield is .106 this year, .104 career.
    -- His GIDP rate (per chance) is up just a bit, 19% this year, 17-18% the previous 2 years. He averaged 21 GIDP in 2007-09, on pace for 22-23 this year.
    -- His extra-base hit rate (as a % of total hits) is 26%, the same as his career rate, and higher than his 22% in 2008-09 combined.

26. Neil L Says:
    September 13th, 2010 at 7:20 pm

    @14 @18
    Jeremy and Tmckelv, my comment wasn't meant as a Brosius put-down as such, I was just noting such poor situational hitting for two consecutive regular seasons. Surely fans and management must have been aware, even without the benefit of these advanced stats, that he was hurting the team offensively.

    Perhaps he redeemed himself with his post-season performances during that stretch, but unless I'm mis-understanding the stat, he absolutely stank in situations just begging for RBI during the regular season. How does a manager keep running a 2000 Brosius out there, day after day, when he is chronically failing at the plate?

    As suggested in another discussion about poor starting pitching years, I think the answer must be that other members of the line-up covered Scott Brosius' offensive failures. The Yankees' overall W-L record was the worst since 1995, but not bad enough to prompt Joe Torre to sit Brosius down for sigificant stretches.

27. DavidRF Says:
    September 13th, 2010 at 7:35 pm

    @26
    Actually, Brosius hit a bit better with men on than with the bases empty. His problem in 1999-2000 was more that he was just a crummy hitter. Nothing against him personally, I liked Scott Brosius better than most Yankees and yes he played well in the WS both years (though he didn't hit in the ALDS or ALCS either year). Some guys have bad years at the plate and those two years were bad years at the plate for Brosius.

28. Neil L Says:
    September 13th, 2010 at 8:34 pm

    @11
    Charles, you're right that Jeter wears a halo for the Yankees. His rock star status as a youngster means the Yankees management can never think objectively about his value to the team.

    However, that is an albatross that the Yanks wear, to their detriment, going forward. They are an old team, overdue for years of decline.

29. Johnny Twisto Says:
    September 13th, 2010 at 9:26 pm

    They are an old team, overdue for years of decline.

    Been catching up on your 2001 Baseball Prospectus?

30. Soundbounder Says:
    September 14th, 2010 at 8:12 am

    @28 Neil L;
    He is the face of a very profitable franchise. He has box office appeal. His value to the franchise runs much deeper than his performance at the plate.

    No matter what their W-L is, the Yankees image will change for the worse on the day when Jeter is no longer on the team. He is still very valuable to them regardless of his numbers.

31. Soundbounder Says:
    September 14th, 2010 at 8:16 am

    As for Brosius,....I think it is important to remember that he batted 9th in the lineup during a lot of those years. Most of the other players listed, were in the top half of the order.

32. Rankdog Says:
    September 14th, 2010 at 10:51 pm

    I wonder how many columns will be written, how many blogs written, how many statistics created to show that Jeter is having a down season? Is Jeter done? Its possible even likely considering the track record of players his age. I am of the belief that Jeter is just as likely to come back to career norms next year is likely to decline.

    I refuse to play chicken little.