Jamie Gooden, or Dwight Moyer
Posted by Andy on December 1, 2010
In my earlier post about Jamie Moyer's season-killing injury, dukeofflatbush pointed out how good Dwight Gooden was in the first half of his career and how good Moyer has been in the second half.
So let's have a little fun.
It's really easy to sum a series of years for a player's career. Did you know you can click on a row, hold down the control key, and click another row to sum them all up?
So here's what Dwight Gooden did up through his Age 29 season:
157-85, 3.10 ERA over 2169.2 innings with 651 walks and 1875 strikeouts.
And here's what Jamie Moyer has done from his Age 30 season onward:
233-150, 4.17 ERA over 3320.1 innings with 855 walks and 1970 strikeouts.
Overall, if we fuse those two half-careers together into one imaginary guy, we get the following line:
390 wins, 235 losses, 3.75 ERA over 5,490 innings with 1,506 walks and 3,845 strikeouts.
This mythical pitcher would be 3rd all-time in wins and 18th in losses. He'd be 4th in innings pitched, 12th in walks, and 5th in strikeouts.
Incidentally, these two half-careers overlap in 1993 (when Moyer was in his Age 30 season) and 1994 (when Gooden was in his Age 29 season).
December 1st, 2010 at 4:55 pm
What does Jamie Gooden look like?
December 1st, 2010 at 5:03 pm
Perhaps something like Derek Jeter?
December 1st, 2010 at 5:27 pm
I've always liked the fused careers of Amos Rusie and Joe McGinnity. Both were born in 1871. Rusie won all 246 of his games before 1899. McGinnity tallied all his 246 wins after 1898. Both are in the HOF. Both were considered durable workhorses. And together, they still have fewer wins and IP than Cy Young, whose career encompassed both of theirs.
December 1st, 2010 at 5:28 pm
He likes driving while intoxicated and sitting on the couch with the kids.
He alternates between rehab and rehabbing the house.
He was quoted as saying "cleaning the gutters while on Meth better than any on field accomplishment".
He has a 98mph heater and 68mph slurve that instills fear into worms on or near homeplate.
I've met one of these worms. He's horrorfied.
He is often mistaken for Little Richard.
Little Richard would not return calls. He's dead, but that's besides the point.
He raps in the offseason under the name GOOD JAMES.
He insits on calling Chase Utley "Backman" much to the dismay of the former.
In related news, the Brooklyn Cyclones have signed Utley to 6 year deal as Backman's back-up.
December 1st, 2010 at 5:38 pm
Sandy Koufax and Hank Sauer.
Standout pitcher's left arm was hurting so badly after his age-30 season that he transformed himself into a slugging right-handed-hitting outfielder. Played till he was 42. Final line: 165 wins, 281 HR, 3 CYAs, 2 MVPs.
Sort of a souped-up, ambidextrous Rick Ankiel.
December 1st, 2010 at 6:07 pm
The weirdest thing about this is that Dwight Gooden is younger than Jamie Moyer.
December 1st, 2010 at 6:42 pm
Moyer should be able to pitch another 5 years with a rebuilt arm. It seems as though all pitchers getting TJ surgury come back stronger than before. 300 wins looks like a real possibility now as long as he doesn't get blackballed.
December 1st, 2010 at 7:49 pm
Mitch Wilhelm. Mitch Williams pitched in 592 games through age 29, Hoyt Wilhelm pitched in 999 games after age 29, giving Mitch Wilhelm 1591 games, well ahead of Jesse Orosco at 1252.
December 1st, 2010 at 7:51 pm
If Koufax's career had taken Gooden's track -- smokin' hot the first few years, then a losing pitcher until he retired because of a sore arm-- would he have been elected to the Hall of Fame?
December 1st, 2010 at 8:09 pm
Jamie Gooden is a little less impressive. Jamie Moyer age 23-28, Dwight Gooden age 29-35. Moyer missed his age 29 season, so I only went to 28. Gooden missed his age 30 season. I did not use Moyer's age 30 season.
74-85 4.77 ERA over 1372 1/3 innings. 893 K, 600 BB
December 1st, 2010 at 11:01 pm
@8, Gerry -- You made me laugh and cringe with Mitch Wilhelm. Just imagining The Wild Thing with a knuckler is mind-blowing.
December 1st, 2010 at 11:10 pm
Only 5,490 innings for this Hydra? Shoot, that's barely more than Phil Niekro threw all by himself.
P.S. Six contemporaries of Doc-mie Good-yer topped 5,000 IP: Niekro, Ryan, G.Perry, Sutton, Carlton and Maddux.
December 1st, 2010 at 11:24 pm
Tangent: Wes Ferrell (193-128) had a career record similar to Gooden's (194-112), but Ferrell won an even greater percentage of his career games by age 29: 175 of 193, 90.7%.
December 1st, 2010 at 11:36 pm
I was thinking about that in relation to Chuck's comments on the other thread that managers don't burn out pitchers. Since 1920, pretty much all of the pitchers with the most wins by age 30 (Ferrell and Gooden among them) accomplished hardly anything after age 30.
December 2nd, 2010 at 1:01 am
Tommy Spahn - Tommy Bond had 221 wins by age 24 and was done except for a stint in the UA four years later. Warren Spahn won all 363 of his games after age 24.
December 2nd, 2010 at 1:07 am
@Pete (10)
HAHAHA! I was going to post that same thing tonight, but I just got home, so you beat me. Regardless, I'm glad someone did it, because that pitcher would be none too good.
And Phil @9 makes an interesting point, though I would twist it back more to this debate. What is it about finishing strong that so attracts us, as opposed to fading fast? If you look at the two pitchers in this thread, why is Moyer the one people think about in regard to the Hall, but never Doc? The beginning of Doc's career was sooooo good, I think it merits some discussion, whereas Moyer's finish seems to encourage people to think more fondly of him. Is it just the recentness of the memories? Or is it, in this case, at least, a much greater valuing of career accomplishments rather than peak value? Just a couple thoughts. Now off to bed.
December 2nd, 2010 at 1:19 am
@14, Johnny T -- Not sure I agree with you there. Nine of the top 24 in most wins through age 29 (1920-present) won at least 89 games from age 30 on:
-- Robin Roberts had 179 wins thru age 29 (3rd most since 1920). He had another 107 wins from 30 on.
-- Bob Feller, 177 wins thru 29 (5th), 89 after.
-- Bert Blyleven, 156 wins thru 29 (11th), 131 after.
-- Roger Clemens, 152 wins thru 29 (14th), 202 after.
-- Jim Palmer, 152 wins thru 29 (14th), 116 after.
-- Greg Maddux, 150 wins thru 29 (17th), 205 after.
-- Tom Seaver, 146 wins thru 29 (21st), 165 after.
-- Juan Marichal, 144 wins thru 29 (22nd), 99 after.
-- Don Sutton, 134 wins thru 29 (24th), 185 after.
Those 9 averaged 144 wins from age 30 onward. I know I should figure the average of all 24 pitchers, but it's late and I hope I've made my point anyway. I still maintain that the theory of young pitcher burnout is running far ahead of the actual data.
December 2nd, 2010 at 1:20 am
@5
A good pitcher only match for Koufax would be Dazzy Vance. Stays in the Dodger organization, too. Dazzy had some early tryouts but didn't win his first game until age 31.
Dazzy Koufax would have a record of 347-219 with 4427 K, two MVP's and four triple crowns. Eight ERA titles and eleven K titles.
Of course, another one might be tempted to pair up Dazzy with that other 20th century HOF-er who won his last game by age 30. The stats wouldn't be quite as impressive, but who could forget a name like "Dizzy Dazzy".
December 2nd, 2010 at 1:48 am
601 HR, 1905 RBI, 1852 BB, 2793 H, 1823 R, .303/.421/.562, 4750 TOB in 2576 G
That's what you get if you take Frank Thomas up until 1997, then Jeff Bagwell from 1998-2004, then go back to Thomas for the rest of his career after Bagwell's shoulder forced him to retire.
December 2nd, 2010 at 2:23 am
Dr. Doom, I guess I'm a spoilsport, but ... when you talk about how great Gooden was in his early years, which years do you mean? I'm a Mets fan and I loved Doc; I was at Shea in September '84 when he threw his 1-hitter, the first game I attended after moving to NYC and still the best pitching performance I've witnessed live. But try as I might, I can't see more than 2 great years, 1984-85. He led the majors in Ks both years, led the majors in ERA & ERA+ in '85 and was 2nd in the NL in both in '84. Great years.
But after that ... From 1986 through 1989 (his first major injury), while his W-L records remained excellent, Gooden had a combined ERA+ of 115. That's tied for 16th among all pitchers with 500+ IP in that period. Among that same group, he was 22nd in strikeouts, 13th in K/9.
I think Gooden's W-L records from 1986-90 are more a reflection of the team than of his own performance. Those Mets were a great offensive team; they led the NL in scoring 4 out of 5 years, and were 3rd the other year -- an amazing feat given their home park. In 1990, Gooden had a 3.83 ERA (98 ERA+), but went 19-7 thanks to run support over 6 RPG. In '88, the Mets averaged 5.71 RPG in Gooden's starts (4.39 overall), helping him to a 18-9 record despite a 102 ERA+.
If Gooden is in the HOF discussion because of early-career greatness, then let's talk about these guys, too:
-- Bret Saberhagen: 3 great years by age 25, including 2 Cy Young Awards and a signature WS performance.
-- Carlos Zambrano: From age 22-25, Big Z had a 142 ERA+ (Gooden was 146 in his first 4 years) and averaged 192 strikeouts.
-- Frank Tanana: From age 21-23, Tanana went 50-28 with a 2.53 ERA and averaged 245 Ks. The 1975-77 Angels had a .423 W% in non-Tanana decisions, equivalent to a 68-94 season.
-- Kevin Appier: A criminally forgotten pitcher, Appier had a 150 ERA+ over his first 4 full seasons (age 22-25), and a 140 ERA+ over his first 8 full years. Among the 586 modern pitchers with at least 1,000 IP thru age 29, Appier ranks 17th in ERA+. Ape finished his career with 169 wins, mostly for weak teams, and a 121 ERA+ in about 2600 IP.
December 2nd, 2010 at 6:41 am
You folks have posted some very funny and creative comments here..thanks.
Special LOLs of appreciation @ 5 8 10 12 15 18 19
December 2nd, 2010 at 7:48 am
John Autin, you only took two of the top 10.
1. Hal Newhouser - last quality season was age 29
2. Catfish Hunter - age 30
3. Robin Roberts - harder to define as he continued pitching a fair # of innings but with much worse results, and then had a brief bounceback in mid-30s. But he clearly was not the same elite pitcher after age 28
4. Don Drysdale - age 31
5. Bob Feller - age 32 (and this is possibly delayed because he took 4 years off)
6. Wes Ferrell - age 29
7. Waite Hoyt - maintained effectiveness, albeit with much-reduced workload
8. Mel Harder - age 32
9. CC Sabathia (in progress)
10. Doc Gooden - age 28, maybe age 31
Sure, some of these guys hung around and continued to win a few games after age 30, but if you look at their seasonal numbers they were clearly pitching much less and much less effectively. And I suppose there is a regression toward the mean issue here; these are the top guys in their 20s, so it's not likely they could continue to pitch as well as that. It's not the most robust study but it's a data point.
December 2nd, 2010 at 9:00 am
Awesome concept! Dare to dream!
December 2nd, 2010 at 9:04 am
@26
John, don't worry - you're hardly a spoilsport. I guess, to me, if you look at Gooden's resume even through, say, 1993, you have a guy who played 10 years and accumulated 41.9 WAR. That's really impressive. In fact, if you compare it to the 8 players on the previous thread who are newly Hall-eligible, it would be smack in the middle of them (and the peak value would be unmatched, considering, as you pointed out, Gooden's 1984-85). And while Gooden slipped, using just those first ten years, he still had a 118 ERA+. And there's also the fact that Gooden was, overall, hurt by the fielding behind him in those ten years. I checked it out on Fangraphs, and Gooden posted 6 seasons in his first ten with a FIP below 3.00, which is pretty darn good. Gooden's first ten years were better than Koufax's (cumulatively, by WAR). I agree with you, John, that Gooden does NOT merit Hall of Fame induction (as I pointed out in the previous thread, I tend to favor a much smaller Hall than the one we actually have) - however, I was mostly asking about why it is we think so much more highly of people who start slowly but finish strong than people who start quickly but fade fast.
Also, John, your comments about those other pitchers (Appier in particular) were really enlightening. Thanks for the constructive criticism!
December 2nd, 2010 at 10:43 am
@22, JT -- "only 2 of the top 10" -- Acknowledged, in principle; but let's make it 3 of the top 10, since the active Sabathia should have been taken out of the equation, and that bumps the rest of my guys up a notch.
There are some no-doubt "burnout" cases on the list, and you cited most of them. What we're missing in the discussion is a control group of pitchers who were not "overworked" at a young age, then had some big years in their mid- to late-20s. My point is, I'm sure we'd find that quite a few of them also flamed out soon after turning 30.
Pitching in the majors is an inherently harmful activity, and I think that any group of pitchers will produce much less value from 30 on than they did in their 20s. I'm just not convinced that a heavy workload in the early 20s increases the risk to nearly the extent that the predominant current theory says it does.
December 2nd, 2010 at 11:00 am
[...] BaseballReference.com has an interesting note on their blog. Jamie Moyer is two years older than Dwight Gooden. If you fuse Gooden’s pre-age-30 career, and Moyer’s post-age-30 career, you get the 3rd-... [...]
December 2nd, 2010 at 11:18 am
one of your real gems, Andy.
How about this:
Eddie Matthews plus Barry Bonds- nearly 900 HRs
December 2nd, 2010 at 11:36 am
Dwight Young, 602 wins
Francisco Rivera, 762 saves and counting
December 2nd, 2010 at 11:42 am
And depending on where you switch over, Paul (Waner) (Sam) Rice has about 2,100 runs, 4,000 hits, 1,500 RBI and a sweet average.
December 2nd, 2010 at 11:50 am
For stolen bases, if you fuse the 29-and-under leader with the 30-and-up champ, you get a "fantasy" player with an astounding 1,406 steals -- 50% more than the #2 man.
(I think you know the punchline....)
I seem to recall Bill James once pointing out that the same player sits atop both lists, while no other player is in the top 10 of both lists. I think this is the only major counting stat for which this is true, though I haven't checked lately.
December 2nd, 2010 at 12:12 pm
Johnson, the switch-pitching Big Train-Unit, had 6,054 Ks, 489 wins, 274 losses, 6,536 IP, and a 159.9 WAR.
P.S. This surprised me:
Although his career K total is 17% more than the #2 man, Nolan Ryan does not lead either the 29-and-under group (W.Johnson) or the 30-and-over group (R.Johnson).
December 2nd, 2010 at 12:16 pm
Moyer might have yielded 511 home runs, but he's still 222 taters behind the record 733 served up by Catfish Niekro....
December 2nd, 2010 at 11:35 pm
Gooden and Moyer also have birthdays that are only two days apart. (The birthday of Mitch Williams, who also got mentioned in the comments here, is the day in between the two of them. In fact, he's one day younger than Dwight Gooden.)
December 3rd, 2010 at 9:50 am
@24 - sorry for the late add-on, but wouldn't Dizzy Dean be an exception to your rule? I'm guessing there might be a few others - Jimmy Foxx, maybe? Medwick?
I think one of the problems fans and writers have with Gooden is that he is perceived to have wasted his talent with his substance abuse.
December 3rd, 2010 at 5:29 pm
How about a player who played 2687 games in centerfield and put up 116.6 WAR (104.2 oWAR and 12.4 dWAR)? An MVP, a 13-time All-Star, 8-time Silver Slugger and 16-time Gold Glove Winner?
A centerfielder whose career line looks like this:
2837 G, 11717 PA, 10046 AB, 1850 R, 2923 H, 596 2B, 43 3B, 670 HR, 1943 RBI, 208 SB, 86 CS, 1471 BB, 2155 SO, .291/.382/.559, .941 OPS, 145 OPS+, 5615 TB, 4475 TOB, 81 HBP, 13 SH, 106 SF, 182 GDP, 239 IBB
Is that something you might be interested in?
This player is 17th in WAR, 4th in HR, 18th in Times on Base, 8th in Total Bases, 7th in RBI, 13th in R, 6th in XBH and 20th in BB. And he's still active.
For good measure, this guy also has 19 HR and 53 RBI in 82 playoff games. He has a World Series ring.
His name is Ken Edmonds. Turns out Griffey and Edmonds were born within seven months of each other. Take Griffey's career up through 1999, his age 29 season, then take Edmonds from 2000 on.
December 3rd, 2010 at 5:35 pm
Awesome, Lampwick.
December 3rd, 2010 at 8:10 pm
Dennis Martinez was significantly better during his age 32-40 seasons than he was during the first half of his career. El Presidente definitely has to considered in this discussion.
December 4th, 2010 at 8:32 pm
@37 - Those of us who were Orioles fans during Dennis Martinez's time with the team tend to forget that he had some pretty good years during his career.