There’s an Hall of Fame Election Coming Up–Let us Know What you Think
Posted by Sean Forman on December 1, 2010
2011 Baseball Hall of Fame Veterans’ Committee Candidates » Baseball-Reference Blog.
The link above gives you all of the candidates along with their credentials and a brief form that allows you to vote yea or nay on each candidate. Give us your reasons here.
Out of
- Vida Blue,
- Dave Concepcion
- Steve Garvey
- Ron Guidry
- Tommy John
- Al Oliver
- Ted Simmons
- Rusty Staub
- Billy Martin
- George Steinbrenner
- Pat Gillick, and
- Marvin Miller
I voted for Simmons, John and Miller, though none of them are as good as Kevin Brown or John Olerud (or Buzz Arlett for that matter :P).
December 3rd, 2010 at 3:46 am
This is an absolute travesty. Until Ron Santo resides in Cooperstown there should be NO other inductees. As third basemen go, how can George Kell, Pie Traynor, and Jimmy Collins be in? I believe that Santo tied with Gil Hodges in the last veterans election, and they were only a few votes from election. Bill James has Santo as the 6th best 3rd baseman, ahead of Brooks Robinson. He has Traynor at 15 and Kell at 30. Tommy John won 288 games and missed an ENTIRE season lending his name to a now common surgery. He is a no brainer. Some of the people who were on the last ballot should also be in-like Jacob Ruppert. Stienbrenner and Miller are deserving. The others are a joke. The whole process needs revision.
December 3rd, 2010 at 9:28 am
So my internet connection was down between last night and this morning, had to call tech support to fix it.
First thing I did once it started working, as always, was go to ESPN.com. Where I'm greeted with the new that Ron Santo has passed away at age 70.
Words cannot describe how angry I am at the people who have continuously snubbed him at HOF votes over the year. So let's say they do the Golden Years ballot next year, he's on it, and he finally gets elected. While I'm sure his family will feel warranted pride, isn't it still kind of an empty gesture at this point? The man waited for so long, always took it in stride that he wasn't given his just desserts, and now he's no longer here to enjoy it should it happen.
A very sad day indeed. RIP, Ron.
December 3rd, 2010 at 9:32 am
Ernie,
I think Santo will get in when they vote for the "Golden Era" which is listed as 1947-1972.
December 3rd, 2010 at 9:43 am
@102 Pat D,
That's terrible news, it's just a horrible job by the BBWAA and the Veteran's Committee in not electing him. The reasons for not electing him were just plain ignorance and stubbornness.
At worst he should have been elected in 2005 which would have coincided nicely with Ryne Sandberg's election.
In typical baseball behavior, they're going to elect him during the next vote.
December 3rd, 2010 at 10:09 am
TED SIMMONS!
http://www.memphisflyer.com/FromMySeat/archives/2010/11/22/simba
December 3rd, 2010 at 10:58 am
I SEE LENNY HARRIS AND OTHER SUB-PAR PLAYERS ARE MENTIONED FOR THE HALL, BUT AGAIN NO STEVE GARVEY. WHAT IS THE DEAL DO THESE BASEBALL WRITERS HATE HIM OR WHAT?
THE BASEBALL WRITERS SHOULD NOT BE THE ONES WITH THE POWER. THEY LET THEIR PERSONAL FEELINGS PICK WHO SHOULD GO IN THESE IDIOTS EVER PLAY BASEBALL OR IS IT THOSE WHO CANT WRITE ABOUT IT.
December 3rd, 2010 at 11:43 am
STEVE GARVEY IS ON THE BALLOT AT THE TOP OF THIS VERY THREAD YOU ARE POSTING IN. YOU MIGHT HAVE NOTICED IT IF YOU WEREN'T SO BUSY SHOUTING ABOUT INJUSTICES.
December 3rd, 2010 at 2:06 pm
"I believe that Santo tied with Gil Hodges in the last veterans election, and they were only a few votes from election."
The voting structure was completely hosed from a mathematical perspective, among other things. IIRC each voter put about 5 people on their ballot on average, but that wasn't enough to ensure that someone got 75%.
F***ing shame (pardon my French if even implied profanity is verboten here).
December 3rd, 2010 at 4:23 pm
#101/Ernie Semmers Says: "This is an absolute travesty. Until Ron Santo resides in Cooperstown there should be NO other inductees. As third basemen go, how can George Kell, Pie Traynor, and Jimmy Collins be in?"
JIMMY COLLINS - revolutioned defensive play at 3rd, by often playing in for bunts/slow rollers, taking away the easy bunt when "inside baseball" was in vogue. Also an above-average hitter with several big seasons (1897, 1998, 1901).
PIE TRAYNOR - flashy fielder who consistently batted .300+ with 100+ RBI. He was often cited as the best 3B of all-time, from the 40s till late in Brooks Robinson's career - batting .320 lifetime will do that...
GEORGE KELL - not as qualified as the other two, but he consistently batted over .300, and was selected to ten All-Star gamres. Being a long-time radio broadcaster probably didn't hurt (I know, so was Santo...).
December 3rd, 2010 at 4:27 pm
For a 10 year time period (1977-1986) Ron Guidry led the American League in Wins, Wpct, SO, WHIP, ERA, IP, CG, SH Jack Morris was his direct contemporary. Palmer / Tanana and a bunch of others pitched during this time frame. The knock against Guidry is he did not pitch enough years. I don't buy it. Look at Bob Lemon, Lefty Gomez, Dizzy Dean and Sandy Koufax to name a few. Guidry started at 27 years of age. At 5'11'' 165 lbs he pitched unitil late 30's (age). The other thing to note about Guidry is that he basically started ( within a couple of years) in the American League at the same time the DH was instituted. And , he only playing a short career ... was probably the 1st Pitcher to come up on bbwaa ballot to have pitched his entire career against the DH. Fifteen years ago when Guidry was 1st being voted on, the bbwaa was likely comparing him to Seaver, Ryan, Palmer, etc.... Compare him to his contemporaries .... Morris, Stieb, Tannana... he was the best of the bunch.
December 3rd, 2010 at 4:44 pm
Just a note, back in 1995 I built a model to model BBWAA voting, at the time the most glarring ommissions at the time not yet rectified by the Veterans Committe were... Dick Allen, Arky Vaughn, Sherry McGee, Harry Stovey, Ron Guidry , Ted Simmons, Tommy Bridges in that order i believe.... righting off memory right now. But, the point was these guys were higher on the list than many of those being discussed.... Garvey was lower, Santo was lower , Oliva was lower, Tiant was lower, Oliver was lower, even Kirby Puckett was lower. .... bet none of you smarties ever considered .... Tommy Bridges ? look him up and why you are at it look up Sherry McGee. I am a self proclaimed expert on this stuff.
December 3rd, 2010 at 4:56 pm
Great response Tom in #111. You bring up a couple of guys most people don't know and who had some real interesting (leading the league in RBIs 4 times, 3 consecutive 20+ win seasons, just under 200 wins, etc.) careers.
December 3rd, 2010 at 5:42 pm
Thanks, Mr. baseballcard. At one point, I had never heard of some of these guys either til I got done with the analysis. Gavy Cravath and George Stacy Davis where the other 2 i accidentally ommitted. The analysis took over 3 years... Started it inputting Pete Palmer's Total Baseball numbers into Lotus 123. After a year bought the data From Steve Moyer at Stats Inc. for $1,100 . And, input ot Microsoft Access. Then quit job and studied to be a programmer so that I could "crunch the numbers better". At the end of the analysis ... i got familiar with the names... Cravath, Davis, Stovey, Vaughn, Bridges, McGee ... because they were showing up as guys who belonged... yet I had never heard of them. Some of these guys have subsequently gotten in.
December 3rd, 2010 at 6:43 pm
I am devoid of feeling at hearing the news that Ron Santo has passed away. I have spent all my energy already, rooting for him when he played, anticipating the Hall of Fame voting results each year with absolute awe at the stupidity of HOF voters, and listening for endless hours that turned into decades of his unlimited and timeless loyalty to his team and fans on "The Pat and Ron Show Featuring Cubs Baseball" on WGN radio.
I have invested every ounce of my being into my existence of a Cubs fan, content in the knowledge that I saw and heard in Ron Santo what HOF voters apparently do not comprehend. The greatness isn't always in the statistics, and just because Brooks Robinson WAS elected is no reason to keep his equal out of the HOF just because Ronnie wasn't as elegant, smooth and flashy on the field.
I will no longer waste any time or energy lamenting his exclusion from the Hall of Fame. The Baseball Writers Association of America simply is not worth any more of my concern.
Ron is now in a better place than the Hall of Fame, anyway.
December 3rd, 2010 at 9:35 pm
#110 - A correction, Guidry did not have the most CG in AL from 1977-1985. Jack Morris had the most. Guidry was second. During these 10 years of dominance Guidry had ... most Wins (163) lowest ERA (3.23) lowest WHIP (1.17) most SO (1623) most SH (26) most IP (2186) highest WPCT (.674) what is the Triple Crown for pitchers ? W , SO , ERA He did this for a ten year time period. Is there a tool to figure out how many times this has been accomplished over a ten year time period ? My best guess is only few pitchers in the history of baseball may have accomplished this ? If you make it a "Fourple Crown" by adding in fewest baserunners(WHIP) maybe only Roger Clemens and Guidry have done so? I don't know, but I would love to find out. Maybe Lefty Grove? The point is... statistically Guidry was as dominant as the games best of the best for 10 seasons. Here is where I will get a bunch of arguments, but... Guidry dominated for 10 seasons Just as much as Koufax dominated for 10 seasons. Morris was close to Guidry, but Marichal was closer to Koufax.
December 3rd, 2010 at 11:54 pm
Ten Year Pitching Triple Crowns:
I did 1000 IP for the ERA column. Note that there are a handful of times a pitcher didn't pitch all ten years in the window. For example, Walter Johnson led the AL in Wins from 1906-1015 despite the fact he didn't play in 1906.
AL:
Walter Johnson 1906-1915 through 1914-1923 (except 1907-1916 (IP cutoff might be too low for early years))
Lefty Grove 1923-1932 through 1931-1940
Hal Newhouser 1942-1951 through 1944-1953
Ron Guidry 1977-1986
Roger Clemens 1984-1993 through 1990-1999
NL:
(none in the 19th century, 1000 IP might be too low for 19th century?)
Pete Alexander 1911-1920 through 1915-1924
Dazzy Vance 1923-1932
Carl Hubbell 1927-1936 through 1933-1942
Warren Spahn 1944-1953 through 1948-1957
Tom Seaver 1966-1975 through 1969-1978
Steve Carlton 1974-1983
Greg Maddux 1991-2000
December 4th, 2010 at 12:31 am
Rusty was my favorite ballplayer growing up and I followed his career till he retired with the Mets. A good-to-great hitter, consistent and durable. He went from teenage phenom to premier pinch hitter -- he had quite a career. Wish he'd had more than a blink with the Mets in the 73 series to shine. But he did, if you remember ...
But he's not a Hall-of-Famer. Falls a little short, is all. I see the Hall as a place for the best of the best and Rusty was a hellava player, but not quite at that level -- but he had his moments certainly.
You could make an argument for John -- I think there's a threshold where counts 'count' and 288 wins is a lot of victories. You could also draw a parallel of sorts with Rusty's career ...
For ten years, Concepcion was as fine a traditional shortstop as you could hope for. There's a case to be made there, as well.
The only sure fire winner is Billy Martin. How you can ignore him, I don't know. He won everywhere except, sadly, in his own life.
I'll close by joining the chorus for Ron Santo ...he's borderline, I think, but his numbers, the time he played in and his defense get him there.
December 4th, 2010 at 3:58 am
Simmons and Miller. Steinbrenner can wait. (Among other reasons, he was twice suspended by baseball, and for good reason, especially the second time. Let's see his defenders address that more.)
You can't honestly support Tommy John and not support Jim Kaat.
Concepcion? Overrated.
None of the others are really close, especially after you pass Garvey.
Agreed with the person above who sez Puckett shouldn't have been a first-year selection.
We need a poll from the good B-R folks about whom we would boot from the current membership.
December 4th, 2010 at 8:54 am
#116 DavidRF looking at the list of Decade Triple Crowns... Ron Guidry is the only one not in the Hall of Fame ( assuming Clemens, Maddux get there) . Of the 11 pitchers other than Guidry to do this, most would be considered 1st ballot HOF'ers . If we added in fewest baserunners (or WHIP) , this select list may even be shorter. But, Guidry would remain. History has shown that the BBWAA will vote for a "great" player who played 10 - 12 full seasons. Or a "very good player" who played 15-17 full seasons. Or a "good player" who plays 20+ seasons. Why is Guidry's career considered too short for recognition ? He dominated for a full 10 seasons similar to the list of 11 Seaver, Carlton, Clemens, Maddux, Spahn, Hubell, Vance, Alexander, Grove, Johnson and Newhouser. To include Newhouser, I would raise the bar by making him dominate for 11 or 12 seasons due to other greats being missing due to WWII ( not to penalize him unfairly but Feller and others weren't there). And, I know this 10 year by league thing penalizes traded players accross leagues (probably more so in recent history) , but being objective about this, Guidry accomplished what no other none HOFer accomplished. And, most of the guys who did it are no doubters. (1s ballot caliber) .. DavidRF thanks so much for taking the time to do this.
December 4th, 2010 at 9:18 am
#116 DavidRF, I take back the Hal Newhouser requirement. Initially I did not understand the "through" .... Hal Newhouser 1942-1951 through 1944-1953 Thanks.
December 4th, 2010 at 9:18 am
Vida Blue should have been in long ago. His stats are almost identical to hall of fame teammate Catfish Hunters. Both were in multiple world series games with very similiar records. great pitchers like Tommy John, Bert Blyleven and Jim Kaat are also long overdue ..
The record is still 61
December 4th, 2010 at 10:18 am
My top are Boss, John, Garvey, Gillick, Concepcion & Miller.
December 4th, 2010 at 10:26 am
I vote for Simmons and John among the players.
Miller and Gillick among the non player executives. Miller is one of the 10 most influentia people in the history of baseball....he si NOT responsible for players earning enormous salaries...he is responsible for making the players union a bargainingg unit with credibility...anf that s it. there is a distinction.
Billy Martin posted winning records as a manager and had such a tempestuous career with such self destructive tendencies that I could easily apply the levels of sportsmanship language and no feel any remorse in denying him a place in the HOF. And the HOF already as leo Durocher.
Duke comment 49
I liked the did Martin burn out pitchers argument but when we talk aobut Guidry and 78 let me point out that in 78 Martin was fired during the season and Bob Lemon was his successor and was responsible for pitching decisions.
Steinbrenner s teams won 11 pennants and 7 WS in 37 years. but of even more importance he was resonsible fo rmaking the New York Yankees an international brand (today I am in Baranquilla Colombia, home of Edgar Renteria and I ve seen 5 yasnkees hats in the street this morning. And he made Japanese players a viable alternative in MLB by signing irabu, Matsui....And of course his checkbook recruitment of free agents trandormed the national pastime. He was a narcistic ourageoulsy over demanding personality and he deserves to be in someday....
Finally since Ron Santo has passed away, of ocurse next year he will be elxted by that section of the VC how he got screwed ovver the last 30 years is one of the disgraces of the HOF.
December 4th, 2010 at 2:20 pm
@119
I'm afraid Bert Blyleven throws a wrench into your WHIP story. My scripts give him the 1977-1986 WHIP crown for the AL. Granted, that skips his three Pirate seasons (which would bump him above Guidry), but his seven seasons with the Rangers, Indians and Twins give him enough IP to take the crown. If you look at MLB, Guidry is second to Don Sutton.
These ten-year windows are fun to look at but I don't see it as being a decider. With Guidry's case, there he had almost no career outside of that 10-year window. The other four seasons add only 7 more wins and 155 more K's. With the possible exception of Newhouser, all of the other HOF-ers listed above had more out-of-window support (even Vance). Newhouser's an interesting case, his 1944-1949 peak was so enormous, yet there was the war... Newhouser will be debated for years.
I think if Guidry had somehow gotten to 200 wins by coming up a couple of years earlier and/or hanging on a couple of years longer, he'd have a great case as a Drysdale type of candidate but right now he's not passing the career-length filter for a lot of voters.
December 4th, 2010 at 3:33 pm
As an aside, I think it would be really nice if there were a way to check results without voting again. I know I would be interested to see what people have been saying in the polls, but it appears to me that the only way to see that is by voting again, which of course skews results. I say this just for future reference, so when there's a post like this (and it was an AWESOME one), to say that it might be nice if that feature were available. Thanks.
December 4th, 2010 at 3:43 pm
REPLY TO DR. DOOM POST 125:
MLB doesn't worry about "skewing the results" by allowing multiple votes for All Stars, so just go ahead and vote again here.
After all, it IS an "unscientific" poll -- not at all like the highly researched, state-of-the art, focus-group-tested methods each and EVERY member of the BBWAA uses before casting their HOF votes, right?......:)
December 4th, 2010 at 6:10 pm
@124
DavidRF, thanks again. I went back and checked my numbers. I wrote a book back in 1994 that never got published. A chart on one of the pages shows that I used a minimum of 1500 IP. Sorry that I did not make that part of the initial or follow up post. You used 1000 IP and even suggested that this may be too low. My 1500 IP was my opinion of a decent cutoff. Your 1000 IP is also a decent cutoff. Not saying one is better than the other. At 1500 IP Blyleven did not make the cut. Would you be kind enough to provide the list including WHIP and making the minimum IP 1500 ? I did this a while back (1994) and my computer with all the data is out in the garage in a computer that has not been turned on in over 5 years. I would truly appreciate it. If possible ?
December 4th, 2010 at 7:47 pm
Blyleven had 1381 AL innings pitched from 1977-1986, so using a 1500+ cutoff excludes him and gives Guidry the TripleCrown+WhipCrown for that decade.
I don't know what a reasonable IP-cutoff is for a decade. Part of me thought that 1500 was a bit high because it was close to 1620 which is 10*minimum. But most full time starters sail past 162 IP/year. I'm just making this up. The 1000 IP seemed low for earlier eras because of the large run-context shifts would skew the decade-ERA champs. Kid Nichols 1890-92 grabs qualifies for a full decade as does Joss 1907-1910.
I'll rerun my scripts with the 1500 IP cutoff... and with the added WHIP calculation.
December 4th, 2010 at 8:40 pm
OK... I have the new results. I found a couple of mistakes in my earlier runs, too. I was eyeballing the list for the winners before. Lefty Grove still wins a ton, but a couple less than I had previously thought because Lefty Gomez looks very similar at first glance. :-). I'm using the code to mark the winners now.
Overall, there are a few more Triple Crown winners with the higher cutoff. Previously, a low-IP player would come in and steal the ERA crown for a decade.
AL:
Walter Johnson 06-15 thru 15-24 (all with WHIP bonus)
Lefty Grove 23-32 thru 29-38 (all with WHIP bonus)
Hal Newhouser 40-49 thru 44-53 (WHIP bonus in last three windows)
Ron Guidry 77-86 (WHIP bonus)
Roger Clemens 84-93 thru 90-99 (WHIP bonus in all but final window)
NL:
Christy Mathewson 99-08 (WHIP bonus)
Pete Alexander 09-18 and 11-20 thru 15-24 (WHIP bonus in final two)
Dazzy Vance 23-32 thru 24-33 (all WHIP bonus)
Carl Hubbell 27-36 thru 33-32 (all WHIP bonus)
Warren Spahn 44-53 thru 48-57 (no WHIP bonus)
Tom Seaver 66-75 thru 69-78 (all WHIP bonus)
Steve Carlton 74-83 and 76-85 (no WHIP bonus)
Greg Maddux 86-95, 87-96, 91-00 (WHIP bonus in last two)
The higher cutoff helped Mathewson (who was losing ERA to Brown), Carlton (Tekulve), Maddux (Rijo), Newhouser (Chandler) and Johnson (Joss).
WHIP losses... Newhouser (Feller), Clemens (Mussina), Alexander (Mathewson, BAdams), Spahn (Roberts), Carlton (Sutton), Maddux (DMartinez).
December 4th, 2010 at 10:28 pm
DavidRF , thanks for running this. Excellent results. When we include WHIP, we are left with 11 pitchers in the history of baseball. All HOFers (or not yet eligible) except Ron Guidry. I think he deserves it. When we factor in in post-season success,cat-like fielding,leadership and integrity.
Post-season success - Ron would have been a perfect 4-0 in World Series starts, but he made one bad pitch to Steve Yeager and the Yankees lost the game 2-1.
Cat-like fielding - by far the best fielding pitcher I have ever seen (Mariano Rivera is a close 2nd) The voters started realizing this half way thru his career and he wound up winning 5 straight gold gloves. He played centerfield in the resumption of the "pine tar game". And, was always the fastest guy on the team. Faster than Mickey Rivers when he was there.
Leadership - Named Yankee Captain. He was into every game, not just every fifth day. He was always the first player out of the dugout to greet teamates. (have to watch the videos for this)
Integrity - Ron would not do an endorsement unless he truly used the product and believed in it. Although he did chew tobacco and had an offer to endorse , he did not want to set an example for the youngsters. Guidry would have won 20 in 1979 too , but he volunteered for bullpen after Goose Gossage went down to injury. The same year Catfish Hunter got injured in the 4th with the Yankees having a big lead. Billy Martin told Guidry to get in there knowing that he was closing in on 20 wins. Guidry bowed out know Ron Davis was going for a record for most wins out of the bullpen for a rookie. Davis went in and took the easy win.
Ron wanted to pitch longer he bowed out gracefully after basically being forced into retirement. The new Yankee manager Dallas Green did not even want Guidry (or Tommy John) at spring training. Steinbrener interviened and made special invites to both Guidry and John. Ron's wife Bonnie was crying at his retirement announcement and ended it with... "He can still pitch" Ron did not want to play for another team. It was sad. Sort of an injustice. Five or Six years into retirement he comtemplated a come-back after hearing Jim Palmer may try. During this timeframe the reports from Yankee camp were that Boggs, Mattingly, and O'neil could not come close to touching Guidry's stuff each spring training camp.
December 5th, 2010 at 2:13 am
@124 DavidRF... I agree that 200 Wins would likely be the magic number for Guidry. It just seems ridiculous that a few medicore to poor seasons at the end of a career should be the tipping point. Was not Dazzy Vance better without his last 4 seasons when he was over 40 years of age ? 12-11 , 6-2 , 1-3 , 3-2 If he quit at 40 he would have been 175-122 but these extra years got him to 197 Wins and the Hall of Fame. Or was Vance a HOFer without these 4 years ?
December 5th, 2010 at 9:36 am
Tommy John would easily have won 300+ games if he hadn't missed so much time due to an injury that resulted in a surgical procedure that is now named after him! How is he not already in the HOF? I also voted for Ted Simmons, one of the best catchers of his generation with stats that are far superior to some of the catchers already in. My last vote went to George Steinbrenner...let's face it, owners don't get much more famous than him and he was the owner of a team that won 7 World Series during his life.
December 6th, 2010 at 8:33 am
Boy, I am out of touch. I did not realize the Hall changed the Veterans process again this summer. Looking at the procedures and the makeup of the voting members, I do expect to see 2 elected. Players ( either Tommy John or Ron Guidry) Executives (Marvin Miller). I don't think Bench and Perez are going to want to see Garvey in there. And, they won't blatantly pick their teammate Concepcion. Also, Bench won't want Simmons. He will claim weak arm / defense. I see Tommy John or Ron Guidry as having the least amount of resistance from an ego standpoint. And, if the expansion era (ie: free agent era ) does not elect Miller... shame on them. This should be their ultimate way to say... Thank You.
December 6th, 2010 at 8:39 am
I don't have a problem with Ted Simmons being out. I would vote him in but I admit he's borderline.
But I am surprised he has so little support.
December 6th, 2010 at 9:18 am
I built a model of the BBWAA vote back in 1994 / 95 timeframe. At the time it was 97.5% matching. The 2.5% variance was comprised of ... 3 players who don't belong, and about 9 players who did belong. Based on that model, four players from these candidates should get in (Tommy John, Ron Guidry, Steve Garvey, Ted Simmons) Tommy John and Steve Garvey were "barely across the line" Ron Guidry and Ted Simmons were "definate HOFers". The three players who BBWAA voted in but did not match the model were Rabbit Marranville, Ted Lyons and Ralph Kiner. (Dizzy Dean was also an extreme borderline case). I had a couple discussions with Jack Lang back at that time. He agreed that his body (BBWAA) made a mistake on Rabbit Marranville. He thought the Veterans voted in Ted Lyons and then he looked it up and admitted that this too was likely a mistake. But, he agrued at length on Ralph Kiner.
December 7th, 2010 at 5:51 am
did your model have Chick Hafey and Fred Lindstrom in the hall?
December 7th, 2010 at 8:14 am
#136 Doug B... No, of course not. These guys did not get voted in by the BBWAA.