Winning with a game score under 50
Posted by Andy on October 16, 2010
Steve's post on pitchers with Game Scores under 50 in the post-season got me wondering, so I did some quick math.
All totals below are for the years 2000 to 2010:
- Post-season games where the starter got the win with a Game Score of 50 or less: 37
- Total post-season games where the starter had a Game Score of 50 or less: 336
So that's 11% of post-season games--where a starter gets a Game Score of 50 or less but still gets the win.
In the regular season over the same time period:
- Games where the starter got the win with a Game Score of 50 or less: 3,872
- Total games where the starter had a Game Score of 50 or less: 27,057
So that's 14% of regular season games still won by the starter despite a Game Score of 50 or less.
The difference is likely due to lower run-scoring in the playoffs. Since the starter's team is probably facing a pretty good pitcher from the other team, there's less margin for error. If your own starter earns a lower game score, you are going to have a tougher time winning.
October 16th, 2010 at 11:09 am
It could have something to do with the fact that the pitcher's poor performance may be covered up by a really good offense, since some playoff teams get there on the strength of offense alone. Just a thought.
October 16th, 2010 at 1:35 pm
Andy -- I think the difference you found just reflects a difference in how often each group qualifies for the win by pitching at least 5 innings.
For the 10 years from 2000-09 (I left out 2010 because the postseason is barely half over):
1. Postseason starters with a Game Score under 50 have lasted the qualifying 5 IP just 49.0% of the time. In the regular season, that figure is 64.6%.
2. If you compare only the games in which the SP lasted 5+ IP, the win rates for a Game Score under 50 were virtually identical in the regular season (21.1%) and postseason (21.3%).
Modern starting pitchers average fewer IP in the postseason overall, and especially so when they're not pitching well. For example, a SP goes 6+ IP and allows 4+ runs in 15.1% of all regular-season starts, but just 8.7% of postseason starts.
----------
Raw numbers:
Game Score <50:
Reg. season: Total: 23,717 5+ IP: 15,325 Rate: 64.6%
Postseason: Total: 306 5+ IP: 150 Rate: 49.0%
5+ IP and Game Score <50:
Reg. season: Total: 15,325 Win: 3,238 Rate: 21.1%
Postseason: Total: 150 Win: 32 Rate: 21.3%
7+ IP and 4+ Runs:
Reg. season: 7,357 of 48,582 total starts
Postseason: 56 of 644 total starts
October 16th, 2010 at 1:40 pm
Sorry for the clumped-together numbers at the bottom of my post above. I used spaces when typing, but forgot that the site filters multiple spaces down to 1. Here's another try:
Game Score <50:
-- Reg. season: / Total: 23,717 / 5+ IP: 15,325 / Rate: 64.6%
Postseason: / Total: 306 / 5+ IP: 150 / Rate: 49.0%
5+ IP and Game Score <50:
-- Reg. season: / Total: 15,325 / Win: 3,238 / Rate: 21.1%
-- Postseason: / Total: 150 / Win: 32 / Rate: 21.3%
7+ IP and 4+ Runs:
-- Reg. season: 7,357 of 48,582 total starts
-- Postseason: 56 of 644 total starts
October 16th, 2010 at 1:53 pm
The difference between 11% and 14% seems pretty insignificant. I'm surprised there isn't a greater disparity here, considering most managers have much quicker hooks in the playoffs (hence you wouldn't expect a pitcher with a low GS to go 5 full innings, as John points out). I guess the flip side of this, though, is that if a pitcher pitching that poorly IS left in for at least 5 innings, it's probably because his team has a huge lead, making him much more likely to get the W once he gets through the 5th.