Huge rally by the Phils
Posted by Andy on September 2, 2010
Well, if I'm wrong and the Phillies win the NL East, tonight's huge 9-run rally in the 7th inning will be remembered as a major milestone. As I write this, they've given back a run...let's see if they hold on and win.
September 2nd, 2010 at 10:08 pm
Wow Andy, you were about one more Rockies hit in the 8th or 9th inning from being in serious danger of having Phillies fans throwing batteries at you.
September 2nd, 2010 at 10:33 pm
The final score was 12-11. Although there were three errors and five unearned runs by the two teams combined, all 23 runs had RBIs associated with them. The Rockies had 20 hits, and the Phillies had 15.
15 of the 16 players in positions 1-8 in the two starting line-ups got at least one hit. Although neither starting pitcher got a hit, both teams got at least one hit from a pinch hitter or double-switched defensive substitution batting in the 9-hole. (Colorado double-switched a 3rd baseman into the 9th position during a mid-inning pitching change. Later in the game, they pinch hit for the pitcher who was now in the 6th position that had been vacated by the starting 3rd baseman. This pinch hitter then stayed in the game to play 3rd, and the pitcher was back to hitting 9th.) Todd Helton, who went 0 for 5, was the only position player starter who didn't get a hit. He did walk once, however.
September 3rd, 2010 at 7:50 am
But they were never more than 4 runs down. A nice rally, yes, but I wouldn't say that this was epic or a major milestone. I like the Phils and I still think they're the team to beat in the NL, but take this game for what is was, a nice come from behind win. I think to much emphasis is put on comeback wins or blown leads. Do they really make a big difference in the overall outcome of a teams' season?
September 3rd, 2010 at 7:56 am
Mike, I think September games like this really matter. I hear time and time again players cite specific wins as major confidence-boosters. Most teams who win or lose a right division race cite certain games as make-or-break. A comeback from a 4-run deficit, particularly with a 9-run inning, while the Braves were losing, will be a massive boost psychologically for the Phillies, not to mention in the standings.
September 3rd, 2010 at 9:03 am
Andy, Players have always cited games like these as the spark to a pennant or wild card berth. Remember in 2004 when Jason Varitek face washed A-Rod and the Red Sox rallied from a big deficit to win that game on a walk off homer? That game has always been cited as the spark that began Boston's drive to getting to the post season. That game took place on July 24, but the Red Sox basically played .500 ball for three weeks before they finally caught fire in mid-August. A few years ago I read an article that looked at how teams played after a dramatic win and big blown loss and the study showed no conclusive evidence that games like these had any real effect on a teams chances of making the post season or how they performed in the post season. My apologies for not remembering where I saw the article (can't remember if it was here, or Retrosheet, Baseball Prospectus....). We never hear about games in May affecting a teams run to the post season. After all you're only as good as the next days starting pitcher (sorry about the cliche!!!) and I think that is where the Phils biggest advantage is. They can roll out Halladay, Oswalt and Hamels. That is what will get them to the post season and beyond.
September 3rd, 2010 at 9:05 am
I simply don't believe that psychology has no effect. I agree that strength of team is the thing that matters most, but I'm sure we all agree the Phillies have a good enough team to win the division. I'm talking about secondary factors.
September 3rd, 2010 at 9:10 am
Yes, games like this matter. The Phillies are fighting for both the WC and the NL East title. Had they gotten blown out or (perhaps worse) lost the game after the comeback, that would have been a big psychological blow. As it stands, they were able to come back big time and put huge numbers on the board. That's a psychological lift that they can build on. It reminds them what that offense is capable of doing. So it's not "just" a comeback win. It's a comeback win that keeps you in the chase.
September 3rd, 2010 at 12:53 pm
I believe there is a bit of selection bias in well-remembered events somehow having significant effects on future events.
We forget the times we consider a game's outcome to be a crushing defeat or uplifting win and then the team performs roughly the same as they have been performing until another seemingly significant event comes along that we again attribute great value.
All I'm saying is that losing games you had wrapped up and making great comebacks against great odds always seem to invite comments that they will be some sort of turning point and I am unsurprised that someone claims that someone did a study and found little correlation between a seemingly significant event and future outcomes. I'm not saying that these events are exempted from having an effect; the participant is well aware of the significance the media, fans, organization, and fellow teammates may place on the event, and may well place similar significance to the event on his own. I'm just saying that this isn't the sort of thing I'm inclined to believe in without support for its veracity.
September 3rd, 2010 at 12:58 pm
so you are calling this game as the iconic turning point moment of the phillies' 2010 season? one of my favorite ones is milt thompson robbing the padres of a game winning grand slam in '93. i think they were losing a grip on first place, but after that win, they went on a roll...
September 3rd, 2010 at 12:59 pm
Fireworks, while I totally agree with your post, I still think last night's came could be very meaningful for the Phillies. This is a team stacked with great offensive players--certainly Utley & Howard at least--and yet has gone through some protracted periods when they had trouble scoring (although they are still 10th overall in scoring this year.) I wouldn't be surprised if last night's game puts away big concerns at least in some player's minds that they can score a lot of runs.
My arguments here are totally psychological within what the players think. Your comment gets to how reality is skewed by psychology. My point is only how psychology affects performance. Hence I agree with you but I think we're talking about different things.
September 3rd, 2010 at 2:17 pm
Fireworks, very well said. I think you summed it perfectly. I wish I could remember where I read the article!!!! I will try to find the article. Andy, another factor that lessens the effect of this victory is that it's very likely both the Braves and the Phillies will make the playoffs, coolstandings.com have the Braves at 93.6%, the Phillies at 69.0% and the Giants (closest will card persuer) at 36.1% to get in. But, this subject does make for a great discussion!!
September 3rd, 2010 at 2:21 pm
It's true that the Cardinals tanking has taken a lot of the drama out of the NL playoff races. It now much more closely resembles the AL. The Yankees and Rays are in a furious fight for the AL East, only nobody (not even Yankees or Rays fans) cares because the loser there is clearly going to win the AL Wild Card. What's more--currently the Rangers have the worst record among the 4 likely playoff teams (Yanks, Rays, Twins, and Rangers) meaning that the winner of the AL East will have to face Cliff Lee and the Rangers in the first round, something they'd probably like to avoid. It seems to me that there's no real clear advantage to winning the AL East over winning the Wild Card.
September 3rd, 2010 at 2:26 pm
It took only a couple of minutes to find the article. It was on Retrosheet by Brian Connolly written in 2006. He used data from all games from 1978-2000. He doesn't say that a dramatic come from behind doesn't have any effect, rather he states that the stastistics don't show any significant difference in subsequent team performance. Here is the link:
http://www.retrosheet.org/Research/Connolly/DoDramaticWinsMatter.pdf
September 3rd, 2010 at 8:33 pm
Well, after a flight across 3/4 or so of the country and a 4:00 a.m. arrival with a game 15 hours later, they only managed one run against the Brewers at home tonight. Almost another no-support-for-Cole-Hamels game. Fortunately, Hamels and the bullpen didn't give up any runs.
So the Phillies have won two one-run games in a row - one by the score of 12-11 and the other by the score of 1-0. It seems like they have been in a lot of 1-0 games this year, on both ends of that score.
September 3rd, 2010 at 11:43 pm
it was also the 4th 1 run game hamels has pitched in, he's gone 2-2. i wonder what is the most games started in 1 run scored games.
September 4th, 2010 at 3:16 pm
@ a whole bunch of posts
Is the discussion of psychologically important wins (or losses) similar to the whole idea of "momentum" in baseball?
Remember the old baseball adage "momentum is only as good as your next starting pitcher". Managers seem to pooh-pooh the idea that a "tough" loss has any permanent effect on the team.... at least in the press.
I don't have any data to support it, but it seems to me that players put a painful loss or great win behind them and it doesn't carry over to the next day. "Never get too high or too low".
A bigger, but related issue, might be the extent to which the history of failure in a franchise affects the psyche of current players, the Cubs being the most notable example. Sorry, was that a low blow, Cubs fans?