Keeping Score: The Number Beyond M.V.P. Numbers – NYTimes.com
Posted by Sean Forman on August 27, 2010
Keeping Score: The Number Beyond M.V.P. Numbers - NYTimes.com.
This week's piece on the A.L. and N.L. MVP races. Thanks to Raphy who saved me a bad typo (last SP as MVP). Not sure if it made it into the print version or not.
August 27th, 2010 at 9:45 am
If Pujols or Votto win the Triple Crown, that is who will win the MVP in the NL. I would love to see a Triple Crown winner and it is looking like a real possibility.
In the AL, Cabrera has been outstanding with the bat. Josh Hamilton is playing out of his mind right now and is probably the front runner. However, I think Cano if he gets to 30 HR's and 100 RBI's as a 2nd baseman, he has a real good shot at it.
August 27th, 2010 at 11:14 am
Agreed with the #1. However, if neither Pujols nor Votto wins the TC, I would imagine the winner would be whichever player's team wins the division, with a slight edge to Pujols because of name recognition. I think that, if Cincy runs away with it, though, as is looking possible, it'll be Votto.
In the AL, I think it's a two-horse race between Cabrera and Cano. Of course, I wouldn't rule out Hamilton, and Longoria, if he got a little more press, probably is deserving right now. But frankly, it's just way too early to call in the AL.
Also, although no SP has won the award since Clemens, Eck won it as a reliever in '92, and Pedro got absolutely ROBBED in '99, so I wouldn't say it's completely out of the question. It will be an interesting awards season, though.
August 27th, 2010 at 12:14 pm
Right now the NL race looks like Votto/Pujols/Adrian Gonzalez, in that order. If Pujols wins the Triple Crown, it's over. There are also three pitchers who deserve serious consideration, but (probably) won't get into the Top-3 for MVP:
- Tim HUDSON - best player on a division leader, but not leading in wins (14), and not likely to
- Roy HALLADAY - Phillies have a good shot at the Wild Card, and he's arguably the best NL pitcher this year, but he hasn't separated himself from the other NL pitchers. If he's seen as the biggest reason the Phillies (do) get to the post-season, he's got a shot. He also gets points for his workhorse repution, deserved since he's leading the NL in both innings and complete games (8, more than any other team)
- Adam WAINWRIGHT - if the Cards do make the playoffs I don't see him having any shot, unless something unexpected happens, such as Pujols getting injured/slumping and Wainwright pitching incredible
I'd give the edge to Pujols, since he is much more of a proven great player than anyone else mentioned, and more likely to maintain his high level of play.
August 27th, 2010 at 12:52 pm
As much as it kills an inveterate Reds fan like me to admit it, I would have to give the NL nod to Pujols by a slim margin over Votto, unless both Cincinnat at least makes it to the Series and Votto takes the Triple Crown.
In the Junior Circuit, I look for Cano take the nod by a slight margin. Cabrera and Hamilton are real studs this season, but that Yankee Magic ...
August 27th, 2010 at 5:20 pm
Here's an interesting fact... the last League MVP to play for a World Series winner was Kirk Gibson in 1988. In the AL it was Willie Hernandez in 1984. I was going to say I hope Votto gets it, but taking history into consideration, maybe I should change my mind, since I wouldn't mind seeing Cincinnati win it all.
August 27th, 2010 at 7:46 pm
I'd love to see Pujols win the triple crown. When was the last time somebody led all three categories?
On a side note, I was surprised there wasn't a post about Pujols reaching 400 HR (unless I missed it). He's not the youngest to get there but he's only in his 10th season and is age 30. If he could reproduce his numbers so far he'd get to 800 by age 40. I know that's a huge if but his consistency is outstanding. He has 10 years ranging from 32-49. Compare with Bonds who had 13 years of 33-49 (except one freak year of 73). That allowed Bonds to accumulate 561 in 13 years, and having only 201 in his other 9 years. So if Pujols can average 40 for another 4 years, that would put him on 560 by age 34, and give him another 7-8 years to get the last 200. Still a big if but if anyone can do it I think he can.
A-Rod started younger and reached 518 by age 31, but he had 3 years of 50+ and has only 86 in nearly 3 years since so already appears to be tailing off. Of course he 'only' needs another 159 in 7-8 years so could raise the bar higher before Pujols even gets there.
Consistency seems to be the key to huge totals though (sounds obvious I know). McGwire hit 245 in 4 years but still only reached 583. He started later and finished earlier plus only hit 18 total his age 29 and age 30 years.
The only thing is if you look at the leaders at age 30 page, most of the very top guys hit more after age 30 (Bonds, Ruth, Aaron, Mays, Palmeiro, McGwire, Sosa, Thome). Lets hope Pujols doesn't go the way of Griffey or Andruw Jones and get lots of injuries, I'd love him to make a run at 800.
August 27th, 2010 at 7:46 pm
The Reds making it to the series won't factor in as votes must be cast before the post-season begins.
August 28th, 2010 at 12:10 am
Oh, I know. I was more suggesting a sort of MVP jinx...
August 28th, 2010 at 2:39 pm
My MVP formula is simply add RBI and runs scored and whoever has the most wins. No need to subtract home runs, as some people think, because every run counts as both a run and an RBI, just that with homers, the same guy gets them both.
For pitchers, the guy with the most wins gets my Cy Young Award. Pretty simple. These guys like Zach Greinke who have good ERAs and don't win anything, you can keep 'em.
August 28th, 2010 at 2:50 pm
It's funny that the Times' commenters think you are Yankee-centric, Sean. If only they knew the difference between you and people who actually are, like me.
August 28th, 2010 at 7:34 pm
Nobody has mentioned Jose Bautista. I watch the Jays regularly as I am Canadian and Jose has contributed far more than just his homers. His defense, 70 + games at 3B and the rest in right field, has been outstanding. He leads the league in OF assists. He is an excellent base runner and hustles ALL the time. He set the tone for the Jays with his mammoth month of May. Don`t forget, The Jays weren`t expected to win 60 games this year.
August 30th, 2010 at 9:16 am
#9/"tim Says: My MVP formula is simply add RBI and runs scored and whoever has the most wins. No need to subtract home runs, as some people think, because every run counts as both a run and an RBI, just that with homers, the same guy gets them both.
For pitchers, the guy with the most wins gets my Cy Young Award. Pretty simple. These guys like Zach Greinke who have good ERAs and don't win anything, you can keep 'em."
This so wrong, on SO MANY levels - you're undoing 25+ years of progress with sabrametrics in one fell swoop... In short, runs and RBI are too team/lineup position dependent, and wins are waaay too team dependent, to be the best way to evaluate a player's performance.
August 30th, 2010 at 11:04 am
Don't worry, Tim's not undoing anything. With such mental powers, I doubt the guy can undo his own shoelaces.
August 30th, 2010 at 8:30 pm
Tim, on a kinder note than Johnny.... hope your tongue was firmly in cheek when you made that post. Wins are so discredited as a measure of pitching prowess. Just ask Dave Steib or any other number of major leaguers. What about good pitchers, like Greinke, who toil for bad teams?
August 30th, 2010 at 10:42 pm
KenH, Bautista is an intriguing case. While unlikely to receive much MVP consideration without an other-worldly September, I believe he has suffered somewhat in the three-slot in the Jays lineup. What with a dogs breakfast of #1 and #2 hitters over the year and an under-performing Vernon Wells behind him, his RBI and runs scored are lower than expected.
I'm at a loss to explain why his WAR isn't higher. May be a lack of doubles compared to someone like Hamilton. Also, he plays at premium offensive positions.
While his defense is impeccable, "hustle" and other intangibles aren't always appreciated outside the market. And we all suffer from "home-team vision".