Mariano Rivera earns a save stranding the runner after a leadoff triple
Posted by Andy on August 12, 2010
Last night, Mariano Rivera allowed a 9th-inning leadoff triple to Elvis Andrus in a 1-run game. Mo then retired the side, stranding Andrus at third base, earning the save.
That doesn't happen very often. Click through.
Here are the most recent examples of a pitcher earning a save while allowing a triple but no earned runs:
| Rk | Player | Date | Tm | Opp | Rslt | App,Dec | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | HR | Pit | Str |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mariano Rivera | 2010-08-11 | NYY | TEX | W 7-6 | 9-9f ,S | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 4 |
| 2 | Kevin Gregg | 2010-05-31 | TOR | TBR | W 3-2 | 9-9f ,S | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 19 | 12 |
| 3 | Leo Nunez | 2009-07-29 | FLA | ATL | W 6-3 | 9-9f ,S | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 12 | 11 |
| 4 | Heath Bell | 2009-04-09 | SDP | LAD | W 4-3 | 9-9f ,S | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 21 | 13 |
| 5 | Chad Qualls | 2008-09-20 | ARI | COL | W 5-3 | 9-9f ,S | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 22 | 12 |
| 6 | Kerry Wood | 2008-07-02 | CHC | SFG | W 6-5 | 9-9f ,S | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 15 | 10 |
| 7 | B.J. Ryan | 2008-04-13 | TOR | TEX | W 5-4 | 10-10f,S | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 9 |
| 8 | Matt Capps | 2008-04-03 | PIT | ATL | W 4-3 | 10-10f,S | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 15 | 11 |
| 9 | Brad Lidge | 2007-08-17 | HOU | SDP | W 3-1 | 9-9f ,S | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 23 | 15 |
| 10 | Mariano Rivera | 2007-07-16 | NYY | TOR | W 6-4 | 9-9f ,S | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 14 | 12 |
| 11 | David Weathers | 2007-06-27 | CIN | PHI | W 9-6 | 8-9f ,S | 2.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 28 | 17 |
| 12 | Trevor Hoffman | 2007-05-23 | SDP | CHC | W 2-1 | 9-9f ,S | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 24 | 16 |
Kevin Gregg allowed the triple with one out. He followed that with a walk, and then the runner was out at home on a FC.
Leo Nunez allowed a 2-out triple in a 3-run game.
Heath Bell comes quite close, having allowed a leadoff triple to Orlando Hudson. He later issued a one-out walk and then got a GIDP to end the game.
To find a duplicate of what Rivera did (leadoff triple in a 1-run game, then retire the next 3 batters in order) you have to go back to B.J. Ryan's game in 2008. Guess who that was against? The same Texas Rangers. Marlon Byrd got the triple and was left at third base.
August 12th, 2010 at 10:52 am
Crazy game. The Yankees were down to 4% win exprctancy when the Rangers took a 6-1 lead, and that doesn't even take into account that they up against Cliff Lee (which would drop that value even lower if that could be factored in).
Plus it looked very bad for Rivera, since he had been terrible the night before giving up the winning run (rather easily) in the 10th.
August 12th, 2010 at 10:53 am
Rivera has faced 24 batters in his career with the tying run on third base (and no other runners on). The run scored twice, once on an infield single and once on an error (in a game he started). Batters are 1 for 23 with 1 IBB. And Rivera has only struck out 6 of the batters. One would think that with 17 outs on balls in play, one would get the run in. None did.
August 12th, 2010 at 10:53 am
Dustin Hermanson escaped a leadoff triple against the Tigers in '05.
August 12th, 2010 at 11:31 am
I wonder if most mlb fans realize just how great Mo is? I cannot remember seeing someone do what he did, but he is likely the greatest closer of his generation.
August 12th, 2010 at 11:46 am
Likely? He is indisputably the greatest closer of his generation. The question is whether he is the greatest reliever ever (Wilhelm, Gossage, ?). Or could he even be....THE GREATEST PITCHER OF ALL TIME?
August 12th, 2010 at 12:01 pm
"tank1976 Says:
I wonder if most mlb fans realize just how great Mo is? I cannot remember seeing someone do what he did, but he is likely the greatest closer of his generation."
How about, "likely the greatest closer OF ALL TIME"??; I hear more and more baseball commentators refer to him in those terms. Even though he's currently 47 saves behind Trevor Hoffman, I doubt any serious baseball analyst ranks Hoffman above Rivera over their careers. You could make an argument for Hoyt Wilhelm, but the best relievers were used differently (earlier) in the 50s/60s, and Wilhelm pitched a lot more innings {2254 IP/ 1132 IP}, plus he started more games than Rivera {52/10}. Even with the huge difference in innings, Rivera has a 10+ lead in WAR, 52.4 to 41.3.
August 12th, 2010 at 12:53 pm
Because relief pitchers have been used so differently in the past 20 years or so it is really not fair to compare them with those that pitched in earlier times. Wilhelm pitched so many innings his very first season that he qualified, and won, the NL
era title (he won another as a Starter with the Orioles). As great as Rivera is, and as a Yankee fan I have seen it first hand, if he had to constantly pitch more than 1 inning, no one knows if he would be as effective as he has been. To me, a "Real" save is when a guy comes in with runners in scoring position and gets out of the inning, not a guy who is called to start an inning against the 7-8-9 hitters.
August 12th, 2010 at 12:55 pm
It is not the fans who do not realize how great Rivera has been, but the media. One of the greatest injustices is the fact that Mariano will pitch as long as he has without winning a Cy Young or MVP. Those writers ought to be lectured about the greatness of Rivera. All he does is win.
August 12th, 2010 at 12:58 pm
Some people bash closers for various reasons (only have to pitch inning, don't necessarily face the toughest hitters, etc.), but the more you watch baseball the more you realize how hard it is to get those last 3 outs with a 1 or 2 run lead (espescially in a big spot - even Rivera has 3 of the worst blown saves in the history of baseball). Plus there have not been very many successful teams without a good closer.
The Yankees broadcasters like to bring up that the Yanks were the only team (out of the 8 playoff teams) where the closer did not blow a save (I did not check if it is true - but they say it so often I would assume someone would have corrected them by now). It is probably why they wone the WS.
August 12th, 2010 at 1:29 pm
His consistency is insane. In 15 seasons as a reliever he's had 10 with an ERA under 2. Only once has it been above 3. He's got 2x50 save seasons, 5x40 and 5x30 (2010 should make it 6). He's got a WHIP of 1, a SO/BB of 4 and is the all time leader for ERA+. He's also the active leader in 10 categories.
And he's been even better in the postseason - In 88 games he's got an ERA of 0.77, 39 saves, a WHIP of 0.773 and a SO/BB of 5.10. He's only given up 2 home runs and 11 earned runs in 133.1 IP.
He's as big a reason as anyone why the Yankees have been so successful the last 15 years.
August 12th, 2010 at 1:41 pm
"Gary Bolte Says:
It is not the fans who do not realize how great Rivera has been, but the media. One of the greatest injustices is the fact that Mariano will pitch as long as he has without winning a Cy Young or MVP. Those writers ought to be lectured about the greatness of Rivera. All he does is win."
In the same way that the writers used to occasionally give the MVP award to a pitcher (last time - AL in 1986/1984/1981), but have stopped doing that altogether, the writers also occasionally used to give the Cy Young award to a reliever (last time - NL in 2003/ AL in 1992), but have ALSO stopped doing that altogether. This makes no sense to me, but that's the reality.
For a reliever to have ANY chance,I'd imagine that he'd have to have an off-the-charts year, and also no starting pitcher would have a totally dominant year.
August 12th, 2010 at 2:04 pm
I was watching the game with a friend, who was confident that Rivera was about to blow the save. Although he respects Rivera, he seemed to be getting a little too much joy that he might have bad back-to-back appearances. I made him a bet that if Rivera blew the save I'd pay him $10, but if Rivera saved the game he'd pay my bar bill (uhh, it was quite a bit more than $10). He hesitated because it wasn't an even bet, but I pointed out the odds weren't even since the lead-off batter had already tripled and the odds were substantially in his favor. Yet I had seen Rivera get out of similar situations, so I was confident. He didn't even make me wait long to win, retiring the three batters on, I think, six pitches. Thanks Mariano for the free night at the bar!
August 12th, 2010 at 2:08 pm
So, "That doesn't happen very often". How often does a runner score from third base with none out?
Don't leave us hanging!
August 12th, 2010 at 2:19 pm
According to the 2010 splits, there have been 3,704 PA this year with a runner on 3rd only. 1,274 runs have been 69 HR hit. Taking out the homers, that's 1,205 runs scored.
If we assume that the batter didn't score on any non-homer plays, all 1,205 of those runs were from the guy on third. So that's a (1,205/3,704) = 32.5% chance of scoring a sole runner from third with any out situation.
Not quite what you were asking, but still makes Rivera look pretty impressive.
August 12th, 2010 at 2:35 pm
Thanks Jason W; you're right, still impressive either way.
I still would like to know how often a runner scores from third w/ none out. Anyone know this stat?
I first heard this on Fox Sports Radio today and they reported that Rivera had 24 chances and NONE of the runners scored. Johnny Twisto above says two scored. Who is correct?
August 12th, 2010 at 3:18 pm
@12 MikeD - nice bet you made! I enjoyed that story 🙂
August 12th, 2010 at 3:28 pm
@9 Tmckelv - I'm just curious which 3 games you mean when you mention "even Rivera has 3 of the worst blown saves in the history of baseball".
#1 and #2 would have to be 2001 Game 7 World Series and 2004 Game 4 ALCS (though I still think Torre never should have had the infield in vs. Arizona...). For #3, are you picking 2005 ALCS Game 5? If so, that one has always annoyed me as while technically Mariano blew the save, he came into an awful situation in that one. The Yanks were up 2 in the bottom of the 8th and Tom Gordon immediately gave up a HR. Then he gave up a walk. Then he gave up a single. Torre finally took Gordon out and put Rivera in. So Rivera came into a 1st and 3rd situation with 0 out and gave up a sac fly, so he officially blew the save...but that was all Gordon's fault. Yes, as Rivera showed last night vs. Texas, its possible to get out of tough situations like that. But I would by no means call that one of the worst blown saves in the history of baseball.
The only other tough game Rivera has ever blown in the playoffs (to my memory) is in 1997 vs. Cleveland in the ALDS, when he allowed a HR to Sandy Alomar Jr. That one was pretty tough, but considering it was only the ALDS, I wouldn't rank it as one of the worst blown saves in the history of baseball. Just my opinion though 🙂
August 12th, 2010 at 3:58 pm
Basmati, three bad outings out of four in April accounted for nine of the 25 runs he allowed all year in 2007, when he had that "awful" 3.15 ERA. That 2.74 in 2002? That's a joke. He gave up a grand slam after a dropped foul ball that would have ended the game. Those should have been all unearned.
August 12th, 2010 at 4:02 pm
I remember that game with B.J. Ryan. That was his first game since missing most of 2007 due to injury.
August 12th, 2010 at 4:18 pm
I first heard this on Fox Sports Radio today and they reported that Rivera had 24 chances and NONE of the runners scored. Johnny Twisto above says two scored. Who is correct?
Here's the search I did, if anyone wants to check to see if I made a mistake: http://tinyurl.com/29f33wq
August 12th, 2010 at 4:36 pm
@18 thanks for the extra detail. So if not for one bad month Mariano would never have had an era above 3 for a whole season (excluding his first year when he started half his games).
Mark, I don't know how to find the data you're asking for but I did find a stat on the 2010 MLB situational/baserunning page which showed that 52% of runners scored in situations where there was a runner on 3rd with less than 2 outs. Obviously this includes 1 out situations so it would seem safe to assume it is quite a bit higher when there are 0 outs. The raw numbers are 3715/7187.
In 2009 it was also 52% (5572/10630) so it seems safe to assume this is quite a consistent number.
Bear in mind that this isn't limited to a runner on 3rd only, so still not quite what you were asking for!
August 12th, 2010 at 4:46 pm
how often a runner scores from third w/ none out. Anyone know this stat?
It seems a really basic question, and yet I don't think any of the easily-available splits answer it directly.
I will try to answer it in a few ways. I am probably way overthinking it and there is an easier way to figure it out, but that is eluding me right now.
According to Baseball Prospectus's run expectancy tables (which I think are based on actual results), over the past three seasons the average run expectancy to begin an inning is 0.51 runs, and with 0 outs, man on 3rd it is 1.40 runs. So getting the man on third is worth 0.89 runs. Does that mean he scores 89% of the time? I don't think so; he could get out and someone else could still score. But if I am interpreting that correctly, it must be around 85%.
In his career, Michael Young has gotten the runner in from 3rd with 0 outs 16 times in 33 chances (48%). Hamilton has done it with 1 out 21 times in 28 chances (75%). Guerrero succeeded with 2 outs 31 of 139 (22%). So the odds one of this troika should have come through is 1 - (52% * 25% * 78%). Which is 90%. (I'm probably really mangling the probabilities on this, someone smarter than me please run with it if I have...)
August 12th, 2010 at 4:52 pm
And my numbers in the second scenario don't really account for walks, which are a failure to knock in the runner but still generally improve the chances of scoring.
August 12th, 2010 at 6:30 pm
If he keeps it up for three more LIFETIMES, Christy Mathewson might stop laughing
August 12th, 2010 at 6:31 pm
The above was in response to Twisto's question about Mo being the greatest pitcher of all time (which I copied & pasted but it didn't come across)
August 12th, 2010 at 6:35 pm
JT wrote that about 'best pitcher ever' because I told him I'm going to put up a poll about that tomorrow. How about if we stop discussing it on this thread and take it up on the new thread. Tune in 7:30 AM tomorrow for the new post on Rivera.