New York Times: How Mariano Rivera Dominates
Posted by Andy on July 4, 2010
The New York Times has put together a stunning video demonstrating how Mariano Rivera pitches with such effectiveness (today's blown save notwithstanding...)
Whether you are a Yankees fan or not, this video is an absolutely must watch. It's enormously instructive on the science of pitching.
July 4th, 2010 at 7:32 pm
Even including today's blown save, dating back to late in the 1996 season, Rivera is approaching 1,000 consecutive innings (980.3) with a sub 2.00 ERA. That boggles the mind.
One writer made a great point on a Jamie Moyer thread a few weeks ago, that the negative outliers effect pitchers much worse than hitters. In other words, the guy leading the league in hitting can only go 0-4, 0-5 even 0-6, but not only does that affect the hitter's average only proportional to his ABs, which is usually small, but it is always finite.
A pitcher having a bad day however, where he gives up eight runs without recording an out, has his ERA affected drastically. His game ERA is infinite.
Leveling things off, or giving pitchers MULLIGANS, where they can have their three most extreme negative outlier performances struck from the record, not only allows for a bad day here or there, but also gives a more accurate look at a pitchers performance, not allowing 3 appearances to change an ERA half a run.
Imagine taking the 5 worst outings a year from Mo's stats. The numbers would boggle the mind.
July 4th, 2010 at 7:38 pm
That is a great video. I'd love to see similar animations for other pitchers.
July 4th, 2010 at 7:43 pm
Me too, although I shudder to think how much work went into that one. It sure is a beautiful thing, though, to see just how he pitches so effectively.
July 4th, 2010 at 8:05 pm
I must concur with DavidJ; but I am trying to decide which subject I would like to see next. There are several nominees -- Cordero comes to mind right off, but that's mainly because I am a Redlegs fan. Any other candidates?
July 4th, 2010 at 9:17 pm
For years I've listened as the announcer relates how Rivera relies on "that one pitch" and I sit there and wonder why no one hits him if he just has just one pitch. And he throws so effortlessly!!!
Now I know.
What a great video, it has significantly increased my pleasure of watching Rivera, and all pitchers, do their thing. Helps me to further understand why if a batter is only successful 3 out of 10 ABs he goes to the HOF.
July 4th, 2010 at 11:13 pm
Impressive video.
But even with how well he throws it, as the video noted, Rivera throws practically NO cutters to lefties, so he is LITERALLY relying on just one pitch. If a lefty knows the cutter is coming, why not just anticipate the break and swing where the ball WILL be? Or does the break vary at Rivera's whim?
July 5th, 2010 at 5:04 pm
Rivera definitely adjusts the break on his cutter. Some just look like a tailing fastball, some break as much as a slider. Once in a while a lefty batter will cheat and try to open up and yank the ball down the line. Ichiro did so on this HR last season: http://mlb.mlb.com/video/play.jsp?content_id=6723731 . If you guess right you might run into one, but obviously it's not that easy to guess right, otherwise Rivera wouldn't still be Rivera after all these years.
July 5th, 2010 at 8:18 pm
@6 Rivera throws no fastballs to lefties because his cutter comes in on their hands. It's tough to anticipate the break, but even if you try that, it means pulling in your hands and, cutter or not cutter, having trouble making solid contact or keeping the ball fair. In other words, he only throws cutters to lefties because he doesn't need to throw anything else to them. It's that effective a pitch in his hands.
July 6th, 2010 at 3:38 pm
How much easier is it to pitch relief, when a hitter only sees you 3-4 times in a season, at most?
Does this, too, add to Rivera's effectiveness, when that batter only sees him once every 100-200 at bats, often months apart? How much tougher is it to catalogue the pitch in his mind?
If the best in baseball already make seven outs every 10 times up, then it has to be that much tougher, when they see that pitch infrequently, at best.
In the days of fewer teams (and fewer pitchers), a hitter would face the same pitchers with much more regularity, and have a better chance at remembering a particular pitch.
Anything to it?
July 6th, 2010 at 4:41 pm
Certainly, considering that starters tend to do worse when facing batters a 3rd or 4th time in a game (though it may be difficult to separate the familiarity effect from fatigue).
July 7th, 2010 at 7:02 pm
Anybody know what the overall percentage of blown saves is in the last 20 years, compared to record of starters' blowing late leads in previous seasons?
I seem to have read somewhere that 12-13% of all save situations actually result in blown leads. It that correct?
If so, is that much better than letting the starter finish more often?
July 7th, 2010 at 8:08 pm
I don't think there's any doubt that using a closer is more effective than not. The ERA of an average closer is obviously better than that of an average starter. Now compare that to the expected ERA of a tired starter pitching the 9th inning. Certainly people can quibble with how often certain relievers are used, whether it might be more effective to get more work from some starters, etc.
Simply looking at the percentage of blown saves is not that useful because blown saves can occur well before the end of the game. What you can do is compare how often leads are blown in different eras when there are different relief pitching models in place. For example, when starting the 9th inning with a lead, teams win:
2010: 95.2% of the time
2000: 95.0%
1990: 95.5%
1980: 94.6%
1970: 94.3%
1960: 94.6%
1952: 95.2%
Obviously this has stayed very steady through the years. One might argue this proves that using more relief pitchers has not protected leads any better. I think there is a level of equilibrium because teams tend to emulate useful strategies. You could argue it from the other side: losing teams are able to come back just as often because they too use more relievers who help keep them in the game when behind.
(Of course these numbers could be affected somewhat by scoring levels, but in eras when it is easier to score, the average 9th inning lead is probably bigger, so it probably mostly evens out.)
As for comparing starters and relievers in the same season -- which one protects more 9th inning leads of X runs? -- I'm not sure how to get that data. There are so few complete games these days I think the results could be quite biased by the types of pitchers who are allowed out for the 9th, quality of opposition, etc.
July 7th, 2010 at 9:35 pm
My question about save rates vs. blown leads by starters is based on what I view as an imbalance caused by going to seven-man pens over the last 30 years, and the resultant loss in bench maneuverability.
I also hate "closer-by-rote."
With an unending string of short relievers (including the one-batter spot lefty, of course), it seems you run out of fresh arms any time you go beyond 12-13 innings (see also the All-Star Game fiasco that led to the stomach-churning "This one counts" campaign).
This will be especially true, if you are not getting the pen a break, now and then.
I was watching the Mariners and Tigers last Sunday, and my dad asked me if I thought they would let Cliff Lee finish.
I said they should. He was cruising, had a career-best-tying 11 K's, and the M's were going to send Felix Hernandez to the hill the next day. Give Lee a break Friday, prior to the All-Star Game.
I was sure they'd want to cut back on Felix, after three consecutive nine-inning performances. Tuesday (originally), Erik Bedard was supposed to return.
Bedard will usually run through 100 pitches before he reaches the seventh, and was making his first start following a long rehab. The M's were saying his limit would be around 90, so I figured five innings.
Instead, we got a solid seven from Ryan Rowland-Smith, but the team was now stuck in another long stretch of overworked pen woes. We have a fading Doug Fister tonight, and an even more overworked Jason Vargas tomorrow.
The pen had already gone 10 innings over the three starts prior to Lee's Sunday game. Lee could have easily given the M's a shot at pitching the ninth, especially with Felix being under a slightly tighter leash.
Well, the pen blew Hernandez's lead Monday, losing in the 10th, then Rowland-Smith pitched well but lost Tuesday. Lee likely won't go nine Friday, with the All-Star Game coming Tuesday, and I'm guessing Felix will be held back a bit, as well.
So, instead of getting a night off in a long stretch of games leading into the All-Star Break, the pen will probably end up working 10 straight, and will need the rest as much or more than the starters.
July 7th, 2010 at 11:43 pm
"If the best in baseball already make seven outs every 10 times up..."
Oh no no. If you are making outs 7 out of every 10 times up, you are quite putrid. The best of the best make outs 6 or even just 5 times out of town.
🙂 SNARK!