Sophomore slump
Posted by Andy on June 15, 2010
Following is a list of players in their second full season in the majors. Some are hot while some are, uhh, not.
The following 13 players meet these two criteria:
- They are currently qualified for the 2010 batting title
- They are in the first season following their rookie-qualifying season. For rookie qualifying, I looked only at the season in which they recorded their 130th major-league at-bat. (Players can also qualify depending on how many days they spend on the major-league roster.)
| Player | Age | Tm | G | PA | AB | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | BB | SO | SB | CS | Pos | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gordon Beckham | 45 | 23 | CHW | 56 | 229 | 201 | 23 | 41 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 19 | 41 | 4 | 2 | .204 | .284 | .254 | .538 | *4/D |
| Cliff Pennington | 68 | 26 | OAK | 61 | 243 | 213 | 21 | 45 | 11 | 2 | 3 | 19 | 24 | 44 | 8 | 2 | .211 | .290 | .324 | .614 | *6 |
| Matt Wieters | 73 | 24 | BAL | 58 | 227 | 208 | 15 | 49 | 7 | 0 | 5 | 18 | 18 | 50 | 0 | 1 | .236 | .300 | .341 | .641 | *2/D |
| Alcides Escobar | 75 | 23 | MIL | 59 | 229 | 211 | 24 | 52 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 17 | 15 | 27 | 4 | 1 | .246 | .300 | .351 | .650 | *6 |
| Will Venable | 88 | 27 | SDP | 58 | 202 | 181 | 29 | 41 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 19 | 18 | 64 | 12 | 3 | .227 | .297 | .370 | .667 | *9/8 |
| Drew Stubbs | 91 | 25 | CIN | 60 | 238 | 210 | 35 | 50 | 7 | 4 | 7 | 31 | 23 | 68 | 12 | 3 | .238 | .315 | .410 | .725 | *8 |
| Chris Coghlan | 92 | 25 | FLA | 59 | 253 | 230 | 35 | 64 | 11 | 3 | 3 | 18 | 19 | 56 | 7 | 1 | .278 | .335 | .391 | .726 | *7 |
| Elvis Andrus | 95 | 21 | TEX | 60 | 274 | 234 | 43 | 69 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 19 | 31 | 48 | 18 | 9 | .295 | .377 | .346 | .724 | *6 |
| Garrett Jones | 118 | 29 | PIT | 62 | 261 | 230 | 28 | 63 | 14 | 0 | 10 | 39 | 27 | 46 | 5 | 2 | .274 | .349 | .465 | .814 | *93/D7 |
| Casey McGehee | 118 | 27 | MIL | 61 | 267 | 240 | 32 | 66 | 16 | 0 | 11 | 47 | 23 | 42 | 1 | 0 | .275 | .337 | .479 | .816 | *5/D |
| Brett Gardner | 126 | 26 | NYY | 58 | 232 | 199 | 44 | 63 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 20 | 27 | 32 | 22 | 4 | .317 | .400 | .422 | .822 | *78/D |
| Andrew McCutchen | 128 | 23 | PIT | 62 | 266 | 238 | 37 | 73 | 15 | 2 | 7 | 19 | 25 | 40 | 14 | 5 | .307 | .374 | .475 | .848 | *8 |
| Colby Rasmus | 159 | 23 | STL | 59 | 219 | 184 | 41 | 54 | 13 | 2 | 12 | 32 | 32 | 61 | 8 | 4 | .293 | .399 | .582 | .981 | *8 |
The last two top overall picks in the draft before this season, Stephen Strasburg and Gordon Beckham, are currently experiencing polar opposite outcomes. Beckham is having a truly awful season. Here are the last 10 guys to finish a season qualified for the batting title with an OPS+ as low as 45, plus the two guys doing it this year:
| Rk | Player | Year | Age | Tm | G | PA | AB | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | BB | SO | SB | CS | Pos | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aramis Ramirez | 2010 | 33 | 32 | CHC | 47 | 198 | 179 | 17 | 30 | 6 | 0 | 5 | 22 | 16 | 45 | 0 | 0 | .168 | .232 | .285 | .517 | *5/D |
| 2 | Gordon Beckham | 2010 | 45 | 23 | CHW | 56 | 229 | 201 | 23 | 41 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 19 | 41 | 4 | 2 | .204 | .284 | .254 | .538 | *4/D |
| 3 | Neifi Perez | 2002 | 44 | 29 | KCR | 145 | 585 | 554 | 65 | 131 | 20 | 4 | 3 | 37 | 20 | 53 | 8 | 9 | .236 | .260 | .303 | .564 | *6/4 |
| 4 | Matt Walbeck | 1994 | 37 | 24 | MIN | 97 | 359 | 338 | 31 | 69 | 12 | 0 | 5 | 35 | 17 | 37 | 1 | 1 | .204 | .246 | .284 | .530 | *2 |
| 5 | Alfredo Griffin | 1990 | 43 | 32 | LAD | 141 | 502 | 461 | 38 | 97 | 11 | 3 | 1 | 35 | 29 | 65 | 6 | 3 | .210 | .258 | .254 | .512 | *6 |
| 6 | Ivan de Jesus | 1981 | 44 | 28 | CHC | 106 | 460 | 403 | 49 | 78 | 8 | 4 | 0 | 13 | 46 | 61 | 21 | 9 | .194 | .276 | .233 | .509 | *6 |
| 7 | Tim Johnson | 1973 | 44 | 23 | MIL | 136 | 510 | 465 | 39 | 99 | 10 | 2 | 0 | 32 | 29 | 93 | 6 | 3 | .213 | .259 | .243 | .502 | *6 |
| 8 | Tommy Helms | 1970 | 44 | 29 | CIN | 150 | 605 | 575 | 42 | 136 | 21 | 1 | 1 | 45 | 21 | 33 | 2 | 2 | .237 | .262 | .282 | .543 | *46 |
| 9 | Hal Lanier | 1968 | 38 | 25 | SFG | 151 | 518 | 486 | 37 | 100 | 14 | 1 | 0 | 27 | 12 | 57 | 2 | 2 | .206 | .222 | .239 | .461 | *6 |
| 10 | Hal Lanier | 1967 | 42 | 24 | SFG | 151 | 557 | 525 | 37 | 112 | 16 | 3 | 0 | 42 | 16 | 61 | 2 | 2 | .213 | .239 | .255 | .494 | *64 |
| 11 | Sparky Anderson | 1959 | 43 | 25 | PHI | 152 | 527 | 477 | 42 | 104 | 9 | 3 | 0 | 34 | 42 | 53 | 6 | 9 | .218 | .282 | .249 | .531 | *4 |
| 12 | Billy Hunter | 1953 | 37 | 25 | SLB | 154 | 604 | 567 | 50 | 124 | 18 | 1 | 1 | 37 | 24 | 45 | 3 | 1 | .219 | .253 | .259 | .512 | *6 |
It's pretty unlikely Beckham and Ramirez will finish on this list. If they continue to play so poorly, they won't finish qualified for the batting title because they'll get put on the bench. More likely, though, their performance will increase to get off the <45 OPS+ list. Pennington, Wieters, and Escobar have all been disappointing too. At the other are Jones and McCutchen, both playing very well in their second seasons for Pittsburgh. Rasmus has been excellent for the Cardinals, as has Brett Gardner for the Yankees.
June 15th, 2010 at 11:24 am
Are you confusing Tim Beckham with Gordon? You say "The last two top overall picks in the draft before this season, Stephen Strasburg and Gordon Beckham..." but Gordon was picked 8th in 2008, while Tim (still in the minors) was drafted tops.
June 15th, 2010 at 11:25 am
I'm wrong, but I didn't confuse the names. Somehow I had it set in my head that Gordon was the overall #1 pick.
Thanks.
June 15th, 2010 at 12:08 pm
Hal Lanier... one of the key reasons the Giants of the Mays & McCovey era didn't score more runs. He was a pretty good fielder, I suppose.
June 15th, 2010 at 12:22 pm
There were a lot of shortstops in the '60s like Lanier. Dal Maxvill and Gene Michael come to mind immediately. No offense was expected from that position then...none.
June 15th, 2010 at 12:30 pm
Would this be the place to mention that you spelled Sophomore wrong?
June 15th, 2010 at 12:40 pm
The right place, Frank. Thanks.
June 15th, 2010 at 12:44 pm
Also, I am really surprised that neither Bobby Wine nor Oil Can Oyler made any of these lists. Wine would have figured high in and discussion of batting futility, while if memory serves, Oyler was to the Tigers {and the single-season Pilots} what Maxvill was to the Cardinals, except hitting the Mendoza Line would have required that Oyler experience a HUGE hot streak.
And with that in mind, what about Mario Mendoza?
June 15th, 2010 at 1:13 pm
One other question:
A lot has been made of the "Sophomore Slump"; but I am curious as to how many of these slumps were transient. What would be a good indicator of how many Sophomore Slumpers made a comeback as "Juniors" -- and how many of these slumps were just the final chapters of "Flash-in-the-Pan"
June 15th, 2010 at 1:29 pm
The Sophomore slump is only noticed in players who were good as rookies. This is because everyone tends to go towards the mean. In effect a good season would be followed by a lesser one, while a rough season will be followed by (if given the opportunity of course) a better one.
June 15th, 2010 at 1:31 pm
Yeah I think what is perceived as sophomore slump is usually due mainly to selection bias.
June 15th, 2010 at 2:11 pm
That's too bad about Matt Wieters. He looked really good in his limited (although qualified) time last season, and lord knows O's fans could use something to be excited about.
June 15th, 2010 at 5:06 pm
I thought this was Alcides Escobar's rookie season. He had over 130 PA's last year, but 129 career AB's.
June 15th, 2010 at 5:09 pm
I ask because I saw Escobar's name on a lot of pre-season top 100 prospect lists for 2010.
June 15th, 2010 at 6:33 pm
Frank, without looking it up, my guess is that Wine, Oyler, and Mendoza were so bad that they didn't get enough at-bats to qualify. The other possibility is that they weren't quite as bad as you remember, but in any event it's easy to look them all up on this site. Why don't you do that, and report back to us on what you find?
June 15th, 2010 at 7:00 pm
Oyler and Mendoza never had enough plate appearances to qualify for the batting title (defined as 3.1 plate appearances times games played by the player's team).
Wine qualified once, in 1970, and had a 59 OPS+ that season.
Maxvill qualified twice, in 1967 and 1968, and put up OPS+s of 67 and 91, respectively. He finished just 36 plate appearances short of qualifying in 1970, when he posted a horrifyingly low OPS+ of 37.
June 15th, 2010 at 7:58 pm
Thanks, Tuna, for looking that up for this post. My point in all of this was taht a low OPS+ doesn't preclude a player's being a contributer to his team. I am also thinking of a player of whom it was said, "He can't run, field, or hi; all he can do is beat you". Does anyone else -- hopefully someone who has a better memory than I have -- remember that quote? I think it was said about someone in either the Forties or Fifties, but that may just be misdirected childhood memories.
June 15th, 2010 at 9:04 pm
I'm sure that quote has been said about more than one guy. I don't know if there is one player for whom it was first commonly used.
It sort of seems like something Leo Durocher might have said about himself.
June 15th, 2010 at 9:20 pm
I just found the quote, and your speaker {Leo da Lip} was right -- only it was Eddie Stanky to whom he was referring.
June 15th, 2010 at 10:10 pm
If I remember correctly, Stanky was the guy who started trying to get a running start on tag-ups from third base (i.e., backing up behind third, starting to run before the ball was caught, and timing it so he hit 3rd on his way home just as the ball was caught). Not sure how long it took for that to be outlawed.
Stanky was a very fine player. I didn't realize he didn't debut in MLB until he was 27. Anyone know why? Maybe, as the Durocher quote suggests, scouts just didn't appreciate his skills?
June 16th, 2010 at 10:35 am
With Muggsy Stankey, it took the height of World War II to create enough of a manpower shortage to get him his chance -- but once he got there, it would have taken another war to get him back in the bushes. I only saw him play once -- and then, nothing happened that I can call to mind -- but I can recall his short tenure as the White Sox manager later on; and if he was as feisty as a player as he was as a manager, I can see why he stuck. I sure wouldn't have had the chutzpa to try to bench him!
June 16th, 2010 at 8:20 pm
In 1968 Ray Oyler was the primary shortstop for the World Champion Detroit Tigers and played in 111 games, all at shortstop. Because he was pinch hit for a fair amount & frequently used as a late inning defensive replacement he only managed 247 plate appearances in those 111 games. Dick McAuliffe, Dick Tracewski, Tommy Matchick, Don Wert & Mickey Stanley all played some at short that season.
What's really incredible about that season, is that he managed an OPS+ of 20 and even managed to ground into 8 double plays. Three Tigers pitchers had better OPS+'s than Oyler including Earl Wilson who had 3 more total bases in about 1/3rd as many plate appearances.
Truly a remarkable season.
June 16th, 2010 at 8:21 pm
I am quite non-interested in soccer, but I'm annually interested in knowing who the top baseball draft picks are. If I see the last name Beckham in a Sports section headline, I invariably wonder if the subject is Gordon or Tim, even though neither has become an established major leaguer yet.
June 17th, 2010 at 7:08 am
[...] has changed through the years. This series was inspired by the discussion in the comments on a recent post. Click through for Part [...]
June 20th, 2010 at 10:58 pm
How is Aramis Ramirez identified as one of the two candidates qualified for the batting title with an OPS+ as low as 45, according to the last chart? What am I missing/misreading, or is that a complete fabrication?
June 20th, 2010 at 11:01 pm
Oh, forget it, I see. At first glance I thought the list was composed of sophomore seasons, but it's not. Mark it up to beer consumption.