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Results: Week 4 Stat Challenge (spring training)

Posted by Andy on May 5, 2010

Koma beat me to it by posting the results elsewhere but I have confirmed his calculations.

First, the answers:

1. Total stolen base attempts against Red Sox pitching (pickoffs scored officially as caught stealing also count): Answer: 5. This was sort of a trick question by me. After what Texas did do the Red Sox, I expected a lot of high guesses but I also expected the actual number to be lowish due to regression to the mean. The number was low, and this question basically determined the winner. The average guess was about 13!

2. Total plate appearances by David Ortiz: 16

3. Total of the top 2 run totals as a team by the Brewers (for example, in the last 7 days the answer would be 31, for the 20 they scored yesterday and the 11 they scored 4 days ago.): 22

4. Total innings pitched by Phillies' starting pitchers other than Roy Halladay. Any possible relief appearances by pitchers who normally are starters do not count. Let's go with the total sum of IP, with that final total rounded down to a full number of innings. In other words, if there are 7 games and each starting pitcher happens to go 5.2 innings, I will add 5.2 + 5.2 + 5.2...(etc) to total 39.2 IP, and then round that final total down to 39. I will not round each starter's individual innings.: 23

5. Total bases by Nelson Cruz, TEX: 1. Cruz went on the disabled list right when this week started. The average guess was 16.

Here are the official results:

T1. Jaheigel 21 (2)
T1. Josh W 21 (2)
3. Brian O 24
4. KennO 25
5T. Omer 26
5T. Johnny Twisto 26 (2)

That's two wins in four weeks by Jaheigel, and now Josh W has one first-place and one second-place finish. These folks plus Johnny Twisto join Mark, BSK, and Koma with 2 top-5 finishes so far.

For fun, let's see what the results would have been if we ignore Question 5 about Nelson Cruz:

1. Jaheigel 7
2. Brian O 8
3T. Josh W 12
3T. Omer 12
3T. Fhomess 12

And if we ignore Question 1 about stolen base attempts against the Red Sox:

1. Josh W 16
2. Omer 18
3. Jaheigel 19
4T. KennO 20
4T. RichardKC

I will also mention Toby J, who guessed a great 7 on Q#1 and 8 on Q#5 but way overestimated David Ortiz's plate appearances.

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