Stat Challenge: Week 1 (spring training)
Posted by Andy on April 2, 2010
This season I will be running a weekly contest. It's quite simple. I give you some categories and you guess how players will perform during the following week's games. I'll post weekly winners and keep a tally across the whole season.
Here's how it works:
- Each week's contest will cover games from a Monday through the following Sunday, with the exception of this Week 1 contest, which will also include the NYY-BOS game on Sunday April 4th.
- I will pose stat questions that cover the entire week's games such as: Doubles hit by the Cardinals hit as a team. Your score will be the difference between your guess and the actual answer. Let's suppose the Cardinals actually hit 10 doubles during the week. If you guessed 7, then you score 3 points (10-7). You also score 3 points if you guessed 13 doubles (13-10). So it doesn't matter if you are over or under. Your total score for the week will be the sum of the points on all the questions, and obviously the lower your total, the better.
- To enter, you must post a comment on the contest post page (this page for Week 1) BEFORE the first pitch of the first game for that week. So for Week 1 this deadline is Sunday evening before the NYY-BOS game but most weeks it would be Monday mid-day if there's a day game. I will be keeping cumulative score by the username you put on your posts. Be sure to use the same email address (which nobody but me can see) so that I can verify your identity. That way nobody can post pretending to be you and mess up your score.
- There are a bunch of other technicalities that I won't list in detail. These are things like: games count even if they finish late--for example a west coast game starting at 10PM EST on Sunday night still counts as being from that week, not spilling over into the following week starting on Monday, however suspended games will count on the days they actually finish since otherwise I cannot tally scores, etc.
- There are no prizes other than your own pride! 🙂
Week 1 contest
Covers games (regular season only) from Monday April 5 to Sunday April 11, plus also the NYY-BOS game on Sunday April 4th. Entries must be posted in the comments before the first pitch, scheduled for 8:05 PM on Sunday the 4th.
Post your guesses for:
1) Innings pitched for Johan Santana, rounded down to full innings (so X.1 or X.2 innings would be simply X)
2) Total plate appearances by Mike Lowell, Jason Varitek, and Jeremy Hermida.
3) Hits by Rick Ankiel
4) Total wins by the Pirates and the Nationals
5) Total strikeouts by Twins pitchers while pitching in save situations
April 2nd, 2010 at 8:22 am
Here's my contest entry so you can see the format I prefer.
1) 13
2) 9
3) 6
4) 5
5) 4
April 2nd, 2010 at 8:25 am
1) 4
2) 32
3) 4
4) 5
5) 5
April 2nd, 2010 at 9:15 am
1. 9
2. 12
3. 4
4. 7
5. 6
April 2nd, 2010 at 9:23 am
1) 14
2) 17
3) 3
4) 8
5) 7
April 2nd, 2010 at 9:26 am
1. 12
2. 13
3. 5
4. 7
5. 2
April 2nd, 2010 at 9:31 am
1. 5
2. 10
3. 4
4. 4
5. 7
April 2nd, 2010 at 9:33 am
Question:
Are winners based on closest to zero or most points? I'm off by 10 and get 10 points...so is that good or bad?
1)12
2)22
3)7
4)5
5)0
April 2nd, 2010 at 9:34 am
1) 13
2) 5
3) 3
4) 2
5) 9
April 2nd, 2010 at 9:34 am
As it says above, lower is better.
April 2nd, 2010 at 10:13 am
1) 12
2) 15
3) 5
4) 5
5) 8
April 2nd, 2010 at 11:23 am
Here's what I don't get - if I don't enter for a week, I don't get any points, which puts me ahead of everyone who did enter. To get around this, you might limit the overall contest to people who enter every week, but let's face it: most people are going to miss at least once. How are you planning to deal with this?
One way I might suggest is by giving people positive points every week based on how much BETTER they performed than the worst entry, possibly with a 1 point bonus for everyone who actually entered.
Or are you just giving people a point for winning a week, or maybe some 3 for 1st, 2 for 2nd, 1 for 3rd type system?
April 2nd, 2010 at 11:27 am
13
12
2
6
1
April 2nd, 2010 at 11:31 am
I'll figure something out--either we'll just count total # of weekly wins and see who gets the most, or I will assign points for finishing in the top few, etc. Definitely not entering will not help you advance on the leaderboard.
April 2nd, 2010 at 11:34 am
1)13
2)10
3)5
4)4
5)3
April 2nd, 2010 at 11:37 am
1) 12
2) 19
3) 5
4) 5
5) 4
April 2nd, 2010 at 11:39 am
12
11
2
6
7
April 2nd, 2010 at 12:06 pm
1) 11
2) 9
3) 5
4) 4
5) QUESTION: Does this include ALL save situations, like when a reliever enters in the 6th inning with a lead? If not, exactly how are you defining it?
Someone ran a contest last year for events covering the whole season, like who will win more games, Royals or Pirates. I recall I did poorly but we should have one of those again.
April 2nd, 2010 at 12:13 pm
1. 6
2. 13
3. 6
4. 8
5. 3
April 2nd, 2010 at 12:14 pm
1) 12
2) 8
3) 4
4) 2
5) 3
April 2nd, 2010 at 12:15 pm
1. 12
2. 18
3. 7
4. 3
5. 4
April 2nd, 2010 at 12:15 pm
JT, I am counting all situations that end up in the box score as either a save or a blown save. So a pitcher entering in the 6th with a 1-run lead who pitches only 1 inning would not count. (So, things that end up being scored as holds or blown holds do not count.)
April 2nd, 2010 at 12:18 pm
Last year Raphy posted a contest with 40 questions (relating to the whole season, entries due by opening day) from reader BoondockSaint. Is that going to be done again?
April 2nd, 2010 at 12:23 pm
It won't be done by me--this is the contest that I've decided to run.
This seems like as good a place as any to announce it--Raphy's no longer writing for the blog. He made a decision to step away and focus on other things. I am personally quite pained by this, but I fully respect his decision.
If someone else wants to come up with a list of questions for the season, and keep score yourself, etc, I am happy to post it in its own post. Reply to this thread to say you want to do it, and I will contact you at the email address you use (please do not post your list of 40 questions here.)
April 2nd, 2010 at 12:50 pm
OK, then my full answers:
1) 11
2) 9
3) 5
4) 4
5) 3
"Blown holds" are actually recorded as blown saves.
April 2nd, 2010 at 12:53 pm
I know, that was a joke...
April 2nd, 2010 at 12:54 pm
1) 15
2) 20
3) 4
4) 3
5) 5
April 2nd, 2010 at 12:59 pm
1. 14
2. 19
3. 6
4. 5
5. 9
April 2nd, 2010 at 1:14 pm
1) 15
2) 12
3) 4
4) 2
5) 3
April 2nd, 2010 at 3:21 pm
1) 12
2) 18
3) 3
4) 4
5) 4
Also, Andy here is a suggestion to the missed week problem. give the entry that misses a week the same number of points that the WORST serious entrant that week has. You as a commissioner can rule out any entry you deem frivolous just to keep people from claiming the designated closer, for example will have 82 saves that week just to skew the scoring.
Score it as an automatic 50 points, but let everyone get a certain bummer (3???) automatic "mulligans during the season" and delete their worst weeks.
April 2nd, 2010 at 3:25 pm
We'll see. I need to keep it fairly simple because I can donate only so much time to this. (Writing on this blog ain't my full time job...)
April 2nd, 2010 at 3:33 pm
1) 14
2) 12
3) 4
4) 4
5) 3
April 2nd, 2010 at 4:17 pm
1)12
2)18
3)4
4)5
5)12
April 2nd, 2010 at 7:32 pm
1) 14
2) 7
3) 5
4) 5
5) 2
April 2nd, 2010 at 8:24 pm
1)13
2)10
3)7
4)8
5)10
April 2nd, 2010 at 9:19 pm
1) 14
2) 20
3) 7
4) 4
5) 4
April 2nd, 2010 at 10:49 pm
1) 11
2) 15
3) 4
4) 5
5) 7
April 3rd, 2010 at 1:38 am
1. 15
2. 22
3. 4
4. 3
5. 3
April 3rd, 2010 at 2:59 am
1) 12
2) 14
3) 5
4) 5
5) 5
April 3rd, 2010 at 10:04 am
I've got 30 questions, if you think there will still be time to post them and get a decent number of responses before the season begins.
April 4th, 2010 at 12:30 pm
1) 13
2) 15
3) 5
4) 2
5) 5
April 4th, 2010 at 12:32 pm
1) 13
2) 15
3) 5
4) 2
5) 5
Re-posting without the line breaks consistent with your preferred format; apologies for the error.
April 9th, 2010 at 8:17 pm
[...] for your guesses for Week 2 of the stat challenge. If you want to review the rules, check out the Week 1 post. (Incidentally, Week 1 winners will be posted on Monday or maybe Tuesday depending on how busy real [...]
April 12th, 2010 at 1:48 pm
[...] are the results to Week 1 of the stat [...]