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Unexpected Losers

Posted by Raphy on December 14, 2009

Every season, there are pitchers who seem to be unable to buy a win. No matter how well they pitch, they seem to end up on the short end of a game more often than not. Other pitchers pitch exceptionally well and still end up with a mediocre winning percentage. Occasionally the are pitchers that have historically frustrating seasons, in which their record belies their quality pitching. Nolan Ryan's 1987 season (8-16 2.76) is a famous example. One easy way that I have found to find such seasons is to compare a pitcher's winning percentage with his ERA+. A low ratio of WL%:ERA+ indicates that a pitcher has suffered through the agony of losing a lot more than we would have expected.

Here are the leaders among ERA qualifiers for 2009:

Rk W L W-L% ERA+ Ratio Age Tm Lg G GS SV IP H R ER BB SO ERA
1 Randy Wells 12 10 .545 147 .00371 26 CHC NL 27 27 0 165.1 165 67 56 46 104 3.05
2 Jonathan Sanchez 8 12 .400 103 .00388 26 SFG NL 32 29 0 163.1 135 82 77 88 177 4.24
3 Wandy Rodriguez 14 12 .538 139 .00387 30 HOU NL 33 33 0 205.2 192 77 69 63 193 3.02
4 Tim Lincecum 15 7 .682 176 .00388 25 SFG NL 32 32 0 225.1 168 69 62 68 261 2.48
5 John Lannan 9 13 .409 108 .00379 24 WSN NL 33 33 0 206.1 210 100 89 68 89 3.88
6 Clayton Kershaw 8 8 .500 141 .00355 21 LAD NL 31 30 0 171.0 119 55 53 91 185 2.79
7 Jair Jurrjens 14 10 .583 158 .00369 23 ATL NL 34 34 0 215.0 186 71 62 75 152 2.60
8 Aaron Harang 6 14 .300 102 .00294 31 CIN NL 26 26 0 162.1 186 82 76 43 142 4.21
9 Zack Greinke 16 8 .667 205 .00325 25 KCR AL 33 33 0 229.1 195 64 55 51 242 2.16
10 Matt Garza 8 12 .400 114 .00351 25 TBR AL 32 32 0 203.0 177 93 89 79 189 3.95
11 Doug Davis 9 14 .391 111 .00352 33 ARI NL 34 34 0 203.1 203 101 93 103 146 4.12
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 12/14/2009.
I have added the ratios to the original list. If you click on "ratio", it will sort the list in order.

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The top two pitchers on the list were clearly in different categories, but both were robbed of wins. Aaron Harang had a decent season and typically an ERA+ of 102 would produce a winning percentage in the .520s. Harang however, was not nearly that lucky, posting W-L record of 6-14. Zack Greinke produced a stellar season in 2009 and, as the Cy Young voters understood, his 16-8 record clearly did not represent the quality of his performance. A .750 winning percentage would have been more typical.

While he was tops in '09, Harang was no where near the all time leaders.

Rk Player Year W L W-L% ERA+ Ratio Tm Lg G GS SV IP H R ER BB SO ERA
1 Ned Garvin 1904 5 16 .238 158 .00151 TOT ML 25 24 0 193.2 155 85 37 80 94 1.72
2 Joe Harris 1906 2 21 .087 78 .00112 BOS AL 30 24 2 235.0 211 130 92 67 99 3.52
3 Walt Dickson 1912 3 19 .136 92 .00148 BSN NL 36 20 1 189.0 233 123 81 61 47 3.86
4 Frank Allen 1913 4 18 .182 116 .00157 BRO NL 34 25 2 174.2 144 75 55 81 82 2.83
5 Jack Nabors 1916 1 20 .048 82 .00059 PHA AL 40 30 1 212.2 206 110 82 95 74 3.47
6 Tom Sheehan 1916 1 16 .059 77 .00077 PHA AL 38 17 0 188.0 197 111 77 94 54 3.69
7 Dutch Henry 1930 2 17 .105 94 .00112 CHW AL 35 16 0 155.0 211 116 84 48 35 4.88
8 Eddie Smith 1937 4 17 .190 120 .00158 PHA AL 38 23 5 196.2 178 100 86 90 79 3.94
9 Art Houtteman 1948 2 16 .111 94 .00118 DET AL 43 20 10 164.1 186 101 85 52 74 4.66
10 Don Larsen 1954 3 21 .125 82 .00152 BAL AL 29 28 0 201.2 213 106 98 89 80 4.37
11 Ken Reynolds 1972 2 15 .118 84 .00140 PHI NL 33 23 0 154.1 149 76 73 60 87 4.26
12 Matt Keough 1979 2 17 .105 81 .00130 OAK AL 30 28 0 176.2 220 115 99 78 95 5.04
13 Jose DeLeon 1985 2 19 .095 77 .00123 PIT NL 31 25 3 162.2 138 93 85 89 149 4.70
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 12/14/2009.
I have added the ratios to the original list. If you click on "ratio", it will sort the list in order.

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The 1916 Phillidelphia A's were historically bad with a terrible offense, and so it is no surprise that the two pitchers who top the list were both from that team. Jack Nabors and Tom Sheehan combined to go 2-36 for that dreadful bunch.

The list above seems to favor pitchers who had subpar seasons with historically bad W-L records. It might be more interesting to look at the pitchers with the lowest ratios that had ERA+ of 125 or higher. Here are the leaders:

Rk Player Year W L ERA+ W-L% Ratio Tm Lg G GS SV IP H R ER BB SO ERA
1 Ed Siever 1902 8 11 196 .421 .00215 DET AL 25 23 1 188.1 166 73 40 32 36 1.91
2 Dummy Taylor 1902 8 18 132 .308 .00233 TOT ML 30 29 0 234.2 231 115 57 63 95 2.19
3 Ned Garvin 1904 5 16 158 .238 .00151 TOT ML 25 24 0 193.2 155 85 37 80 94 1.72
4 Gene Schott 1937 4 13 125 .235 .00188 CIN NL 37 17 1 154.1 150 69 51 48 56 2.97
5 Hal Newhouser 1942 8 14 161 .364 .00226 DET AL 38 23 5 183.2 137 73 50 114 103 2.45
6 Sammy Stewart 1981 4 8 156 .333 .00213 BAL AL 29 3 4 112.1 89 33 29 57 57 2.32
7 Nolan Ryan 1987 8 16 142 .333 .00235 HOU NL 34 34 0 211.2 154 75 65 87 270 2.76
8 Joe Magrane 1988 5 9 160 .357 .00223 STL NL 24 24 0 165.1 133 57 40 51 100 2.18
9 Jim Abbott 1992 7 15 144 .318 .00221 CAL AL 29 29 0 211.0 208 73 65 68 130 2.77
10 Brandon Webb 2004 7 16 129 .304 .00236 ARI NL 35 35 0 208.0 194 111 83 119 164 3.59
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 12/14/2009.
I have added the ratios to the original list. If you click on "ratio", it will sort the list in order.

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There is Ryan '87. Certainly a travesty of a season, but not the biggest. In fact, in 1904 Ned Garvin had a better ERA+ than Ryan and a much worse record.

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On the flip side of this are pitchers whose record was much better than their ERA + would suggest. You can read about them here.

Related posts:

    Unexpected Winners
    Unexpected At-Bats
    Two Games, Four Teams, Three Losers?
    Years With Most 15 Game Losers With ERA 5 Or Worse

This entry was posted on Monday, December 14th, 2009 at 10:50 am and is filed under Uncategorized. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. Both comments and pings are currently closed.

One Response to “Unexpected Losers”

  1. JohnnyTwisto Says:
    December 15th, 2009 at 9:29 am

    I wonder why such a high percentage of the pitchers on this and the previous list seem to be from the deadball era. I'm guessing it has to do with a wider spread of talent at the time, more dominant teams and more hopeless teams, making it more likely an individual pitcher could vastly over- or underperform his record. But I'm not sure.

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