2007 World Series Challenge: Game 1
Posted by Andy on October 22, 2007
Ok, fellow stat geeks, let's have a prediction challenge. And this isn't going to be a stupid thing like who wins the series and in how many games. Let's do a real stat-oriented contest.
The scoring rules follow bellow. We'll do a separate challenge for each game, and I'll post a the winners game-by-game. In addition, those individuals who post entries for all games of the World Series will be eligible for the final leaderboard for the Series as a whole.
OK, now the rules (again this is for each game, scored individually):
Firstly, the goal is to get the lowest score possible.
Secondly, you must submit a prediction for every category or your entry is invalid.
Now here are the scoring rules:
- For starting pitcher game scores, your point total is the difference between your guess and the actual game score. For example if you guess 80 and the actual game score is 50, you get 30 points. Similarly, if you guess 20 and the actual game score is 50, you also get 30 points. (Remember, the goal is to get the fewest points possible.)
- For runs scored, you get 10 points per run for the difference between your guess and the actual number of runs scored. For example if you guess 6 runs and the actual number of runs scored is 4, then you score 20 points due to the 2-run difference. Similarly, if you guess 2 and the actual number of runs scored is 4, you also score 20 points. Note that this is total runs scored by one team (not just earned runs.)
- For winning pitcher and losing pitcher, you get 0 points for each if your guess is wrong. But, if you guess correctly, you get -20 (negative 20) points for each. (So you get -20 points if you guess either the winner or the loser correctly, or -40 for both.)
- For team LOB, you get 5 points per runner left on base difference between your guess and the actual number of team LOB. Just to be clear, this is batting runners LOB, not runners stranded on base by pitching.
- For the Home Run Guess, you guess one player per team who will hit a home run. If that player does hit a home run, you get -8 (negative 8 ) points. Otherwise, you get 0.
I could go on and on, but for the sake of making this easy and fun, I'll leave it at that.
So here is the ballot. "C" refers to Colorado, and "B" refers to Boston. Note that if a different pitcher ends up starting than the one I've named, your guesses simply carry over to the actual starting pitcher.
GAME 1: WEDNESDAY
C(game score): Jeff Francis Game Score
C(runs scored): Colorado Runs Scored
C(batting LOB): Colorado Batting Team Runners Left on Base
C(HR guess): Colorado Home Run Guess (one batter)
B(game score): Josh Beckett Game Score
B(runs scored): Boston Runs Scored
B(batting LOB): Boston Batting Team Runners Left on Base
B(HR guess): Boston Home Run Guess (one batter)
Game WP: Winning Pitcher
Game LP: Losing Pitcher
Here is your ballot. Cut and paste it below with your answers.
C(game score): ?
C(runs scored): ?
C(batting LOB): ?
C(HR guess): ?
B(game score): ?
B(runs scored): ?
B(batting LOB): ?
B(HR guess): ?
Game WP: ?
Game LP: ?
You must have a comment in this post timestamped before the first pitch on Wednesday night in order to have your ballot count. Please note that I am not going to allow changes, so once you post your ballot, that's it.
October 23rd, 2007 at 12:04 am
C(game score): 45
C(runs scored): 3
C(batting LOB): 6 if you mean Team LOB. 12 if you mean combined total of all hitters.
C(HR guess): Matt Holliday
B(game score): 65
B(runs scored): 4
B(batting LOB): 12 if you mean Team LOB. 15 if you mean combined total of all hitters.
B(HR guess): Jason Varitek
Game WP: Josh Beckett
Game LP: Jeremy Affeldt
October 23rd, 2007 at 3:21 am
C(game score): 61
C(runs scored): 6
C(batting LOB): 8
C(HR guess): Matt Holliday
B(game score): 52
B(runs scored): 5
B(batting LOB): 4
B(HR guess): David Ortiz
Game WP: Jeff Francis
Game LP: Josh Beckett
October 23rd, 2007 at 5:46 am
C(game score): 42
C(runs scored): 4
C(batting LOB): 9
C(HR guess): Hawpe
B(game score): 52
B(runs scored): 6
B(batting LOB): 7
B(HR guess): Lowell
Game WP: Beckett
Game LP: Francis
October 23rd, 2007 at 7:04 am
I mean team LOB as it gets recorded in the boxscore, i.e. runners stranded on base at the end of innings. Oliver, I'm not totally sure what you mean in your numbers, so please clarify.
October 23rd, 2007 at 7:53 am
I am speaking out of turn for Oliver, but I am pretty certain he is referring to the boxscores that list LOB for each batter, and then curiously total them.
For example if batters 1,2, and 3 load the bases; and batters 4, 5, and 6 each make an out without driving them in, each batter (4, 5, and 6) are charged with 3 LOB, and the team is "charged" with 9 for that inning.
October 23rd, 2007 at 7:55 am
C(game score): 38
C(runs scored): 4
C(batting LOB): 11
C(HR guess): Helton
B(game score): 42
B(runs scored): 7
B(batting LOB): 9
B(HR guess): Youkilis
Game WP: Timlin
Game LP: Francis
October 23rd, 2007 at 9:23 am
C(game score): 57
C(runs scored): 2
C(batting LOB): 8
C(HR guess): Helton
B(game score): 63
B(runs scored): 8
B(batting LOB): 7
B(HR guess): Manny
Game WP: Beckett
Game LP: Francis
October 23rd, 2007 at 9:25 am
If you look in this boxscore: http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/boxscore?gid=271021102
Numbers for each batter are listed for AB, R, H, RBI, BB, K, LOB and AVG. Sizemore is credited with 2 LOB with his at bats; all Indian batters combined for 15 LOB with their total at bats. That number is different than their Team LOB of 7, which only counts LOB when the third out is made.
So, do you mean Team LOB (in which case my predictions are 6 for Colorado and 12 for Boston), or do you mean combined total of all hitters (in which case my predictions are 12 for Colorado and 15 for Boston).
October 23rd, 2007 at 9:37 am
Team LOB, i.e. each stranded runner is counted only once, not multiple times if multiple batters strand the same runner.
October 23rd, 2007 at 9:56 am
C(game score): 45
C(runs scored): 1
C(batting LOB): 7
C(HR guess): Atkins
B(game score): 75
B(runs scored): 6
B(batting LOB): 8
B(HR guess): Manny Ramirez
Game WP: Beckett
Game LP: Francis
October 23rd, 2007 at 10:38 am
C(game score): 38
C(runs scored): 2
C(batting LOB): 8
C(HR guess): Hawpe
B(game score): 60
B(runs scored): 7
B(batting LOB): 7
B(HR guess): Manny Ramirez
Game WP: Beckett
Game LP: Francis
October 23rd, 2007 at 12:19 pm
C(game score): 55
C(runs scored): 5
C(batting LOB): 7
C(HR guess): Garrett Atkins
B(game score): 50
B(runs scored): 3
B(batting LOB): 10
B(HR guess): Mike Lowell
Game WP: Matt Herges
Game LP: Josh Beckett
October 23rd, 2007 at 12:49 pm
C(game score): 60
C(runs scored): 5
C(batting LOB): 8
C(HR guess): Todd Helton
B(game score): 61
B(runs scored): 4
B(batting LOB): 9
B(HR guess): Kevin Youkilis
Game WP: Brian Fuentes
Game LP: Josh Beckett
October 23rd, 2007 at 3:19 pm
C(game score): 52
C(runs scored): 3
C(batting LOB): 9
C(HR guess): Todd Helton
B(game score): 68
B(runs scored): 5
B(batting LOB): 9
B(HR guess): Mike Lowell
Game WP: Beckett
Game LP: Fuentes
October 23rd, 2007 at 3:27 pm
It's pretty cool seeing different people's opinions on how this game will turn out....
October 23rd, 2007 at 5:22 pm
Andy, I hope you play too. Just because you're organizing it doesn't mean you have to sit it out.
October 23rd, 2007 at 6:33 pm
But if I play, that will shatter the illusion that I am an all-knowing baseball diety.
Seriously, it's pretty amazing the traction that baseball-reference.com has. Over the last couple of months, I've met several random people who have mentioned the site, whereupon I ask if they read this blog. A couple have, and then are amazed to find that I am the "legendary" Andy...
October 24th, 2007 at 5:14 am
[...] Submit your ballot for Game 1 of the World Series Challenge before the first pitch [...]
October 24th, 2007 at 7:52 am
[...] For the full explanation, or to enter your Game 1 predictions before the first pitch tonight, see the Game 1 post. [...]
October 24th, 2007 at 12:30 pm
C(game score): 37
C(runs scored): 3
C(batting LOB): 5
C(HR guess): Garrett Atkins
B(game score): 71
B(runs scored): 7
B(batting LOB): 7
B(HR guess): Youkilis
Game WP: Josh Beckett
Game LP: Jeff Francis
October 24th, 2007 at 1:27 pm
C(game score): 48
C(runs scored): 3
C(batting LOB): 5
C(HR guess): HELTON
B(game score): 60
B(runs scored): 5
B(batting LOB): 5
B(HR guess): YOUKILIS
Game WP: BECKETT
Game LP: FRANCIS
October 24th, 2007 at 1:39 pm
I'm not going to submit a full ballot, but I will say that I predict both Francis and Beckett will get hit hard, and that neither will get the win.
October 24th, 2007 at 2:05 pm
C(game score): 48
C(runs scored): 2
C(batting LOB): 6
C(HR guess): Colorado Home Run Guess Atkins
B(game score): 72
B(runs scored): 6
B(batting LOB): 9
B(HR guess): Lowell
Game WP: Beckett
Game LP: Francis
October 24th, 2007 at 4:29 pm
C(game score): 39
C(runs scored): 5
C(batting LOB): 9
C(HR guess): Hawpe
B(game score): 64
B(runs scored): 7
B(batting LOB): 9
B(HR guess): Youkilis
Game WP: Beckett
Game LP: Francis
October 24th, 2007 at 5:28 pm
C(game score): 62
C(runs scored): 2
C(batting LOB): 5
C(HR guess): Atkins
B(game score): 85
B(runs scored): 8
B(batting LOB): 8
B(HR guess): Ortiz
Game WP: Beckett
Game LP: Francis
October 26th, 2007 at 9:47 am
[...] For the full explanation on how this challenge is scored, see the Game 1 post. [...]
October 26th, 2007 at 3:06 pm
[...] For the full explanation on how this challenge is scored, see the Game 1 post. [...]