See you in 2013: John Lackey to have Tommy John surgery
Posted by Andy on October 25, 2011
A little news from Ben Cherington's introductory press conference as Red Sox GM: John Lackey is getting Tommy John surgery and will miss the 2012 season.
I've also heard that the Red Sox have insurance on Lackey's contract for this possibility, meaning a lot of sting is removed, at least for that massive 2012 salary. Not too bad, considering the guy just posted the worst season in history for a regular Red Sox starting pitcher.
October 25th, 2011 at 4:01 pm
[...] Links See you in 2013: John Lackey to have Tommy John surgery » Baseball-Reference Blog » Blog... Amazon.com [...]
October 25th, 2011 at 4:03 pm
... as BoSox fans ponder whether TJ surgery has ever proved fatal....
October 25th, 2011 at 4:19 pm
Watch out Cub's fans! Bud's "fair and balanced" compensation will have you taking on Lackey's contract, and then, Matt Garza gets shipped off to soothe the Red Sox pitching needs.
October 25th, 2011 at 4:29 pm
Imagine the glares if the surgeon messes up Lackey's procedure!
October 25th, 2011 at 4:34 pm
John A, are you suggesting the surgical team have a few in-game beers and some fried chicken while the procedure is being performed?
October 25th, 2011 at 4:40 pm
@4: Unless Lackey ends up with two arms on the same side of his body, I don't think there'll be any way to tell if the surgeon messed up.
October 25th, 2011 at 4:52 pm
ooh, then he could wear F-shirts instead of T-shirts!
October 25th, 2011 at 5:10 pm
I knew Lackey would be more productive in 2012!
October 25th, 2011 at 5:16 pm
"The John Lackey Fan Club, ladies & gentlemen!"
October 25th, 2011 at 5:22 pm
@6, Robert -- Seems more likely that Lackey will wake up with one foot in his mouth, and one of Terry Francona's cleats up his ....
October 25th, 2011 at 5:33 pm
Big news is that it activates the sixth year of Lackeys contract at league minimum. And saves Boston luxury tax!!! A veritable banquet of goodies.
October 25th, 2011 at 5:55 pm
Looking at his 2011 performance, it is obvious that Lackey needed something drastic to turn him around. What is the next step, if the TJ doesn't work? Voluntary castration?
October 25th, 2011 at 8:04 pm
You have to wonder what went on here. Lackey had known elbow problems when he came to the Red Sox, and he was on the DL in May, but there was no inkling of more troubles after that. Given the lead that Boston had in the late summer, he could easily have skipped a turn or two. His performance was horrible, but didn't seem to lack for fire-he hit 19 batters. You would have thought if he was in pain, he would have said something.
October 25th, 2011 at 8:51 pm
There was discussion of Lackey needing Tommy John during the season in the June-July time frame, so this news is quite unsurprising.
October 25th, 2011 at 9:11 pm
@14, Andy-In late June, Peter Gammons reported it , "With all the problems with Lackey's elbow, is this guy going to end up needing Tommy John surgery before August? That's something they have to decide," said Gammons. ..I've had indications that there are some questions about just how healthy [Lackey is]. We know he was disabled with the elbow problem. We know he had the shot,"
It was shot down by the club at the time (both Francona and Epstein). And I'm still surprised they wouldn't have shut him down in September if he was hurting. Anyway, it's moot.
October 25th, 2011 at 9:53 pm
I can't help but think we'd all be better off if Lackey had this surgery in May. In the six years previous to this, he had a 3.65 ERA - the guy clearly wasn't right. Then, all of a sudden, the guy was the worst pitcher in the world, with no velocity, movement, or command. Another strike against the Red Sox medical/training staff.
October 26th, 2011 at 10:02 am
First Dice-K had TJ surgery, now Lackey. I knew the Red Sox pitching staff would be better in 2012!
October 26th, 2011 at 10:22 am
Hey Beantowners, welcome to being a New York Mets fan! How many pitchers did the Mets have that decided to not tell anyone their arms were messed up, and wound up pitching like beer-league softballers? Oh, but at the end of the season, by the way, I need surgery and I'm missing NEXT year, too.
We could call them the Braden Looper All-Stars.
No, I'm not still bitter. Because shut up, that's why.
October 26th, 2011 at 11:01 am
@16-I agree.
Lackey was in a no win situation this season.
Being injured, there is no way he could have a
productive season.
If he were to shut it down early, he is then perceived
as a quitter making 82 million dollars.
If he shuts his mouth and pitches in pain, the performance
suffers and he is perceived as a bust who makes 82
million dollars.
Or it could just be that he stinks like AJ Burnett.
Those two are forever linked.
October 26th, 2011 at 11:22 am
Caveat emptor: Boston signed Lackey to that 5-year deal at age 31, coming off a 2-year average of 26 starts, 176 IP and 117 ERA+ (compared to his previous 3-year average of 33 starts, 217 IP and 133 ERA+). He pitched the full season in 2010, but wasn't good, with a 99 ERA+ and career lows in SO/9 and SO/BB.
The depth of his fall this year may have been shocking, but that he fell should not have been a surprise.
October 26th, 2011 at 12:21 pm
Looking at the top of that list of highest ERA+ by Red Sox starters, I see several ERA's in the high three's (Dineen, Jones, Siebert, Young). Normally we'd think of an ERA in that range as good, even very good, so this a great remainder that context can make a huge difference.
Siebert's mediocre ERA+ in 1972 may surprise some people - 1971 and especially 1972 were such down offensive years that the DH was introduced the next year.
October 26th, 2011 at 12:56 pm
@2 1 - when I wrote "highest ERA+", I actually meant "worst ERA+".
October 26th, 2011 at 2:16 pm
@20 - Isn't this the type of projection Theo's numbers should have caught? Go Cubs Go!!
October 26th, 2011 at 4:16 pm
Teams like the Red Sox and Yankees make signings like Lackey and Burnett because they can-they can outbid people for someone who isn't fantastic, figuring that with their powerful line-ups, you could be getting an 18 game winner. Here's a peculiar stat about Lackey. In 78 post season innings he's hit exactly one batter. Regular season, more than 4 times that rate. You wonder a little about this guy's head.
October 26th, 2011 at 5:14 pm
@24/ Mike L -
"... Here's a peculiar stat about Lackey. In 78 post season innings he's hit exactly one batter. Regular season, more than 4 times that rate. You wonder a little about this guy's head."
Mike, I don't think it has to do with his head, but more with "small sample size"; you could probably go through his regular season starts game-by-game, and find several stretches where he had only one HBP in 78 innings (regular season: about one HBP every 19 innings).
That, plus in the postseason, _every_ batter is important, so you're less likely to deliberately put a batter on base.
October 26th, 2011 at 5:48 pm
@25, Lawrence. Could be. His walk rate during the post season is 3.3/9, regular season 3.1/9, not too much variation there. Might just be a coincidence.