Did Tommy Lasorda know?
Posted by Andy on January 21, 2011
(Thanks to reader Kahuna Tuna who sent in this idea.)
Just about all baseball fans over the age of 30 will remember Kirk Gibson's home run in the 1988 World Series. It was quite an unlikely walkoff job, thanks in large part to Gibson's injury and Dennis Eckersley's dominance. Nevertheless, it happened. Turns out there might have been a little magic at work.
To set that situation exactly, Gibson's homer came as a pinch-hitter with 2 outs, in the 9th inning, with his team down by the score of 4-3, and a runner on second base.
Check out all of the Dodgers' two-out come-from-behind walk-off homers since 1952:
| Yr# | Date | Batter | Opp | Pitcher | Score | Inn | RoB | Out | Pit(cnt) | RBI | WPA | RE24 | Play Description | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1952-06-20 | George Shuba | PIT | Ted Wilks | down 4-3 | b9 | -2- | 2 | 3 (1-1) | 2 | 0.86 | 4.96 | *ENDED GAME*:Home Run; Hodges Scores | |
| 2 | 1953-05-09 (1) | Roy Campanella | PHI | Robin Roberts | down 6-5 | b9 | 1-- | 2 | 3 (2-0) | 2 | 0.89 | 3.66 | *ENDED GAME*:Home Run (Line Drive); Robinson Scores | |
| 3 | 1953-05-27 | Roy Campanella | NYG | Jim Hearn | down 3-2 | b9 | 12- | 2 | 4 (2-1) | 3 | 0.82 | 6.80 | *ENDED GAME*:Home Run; Reese Scores/unER; Robinson Scores/unER; Campanella Scores/unER | |
| 4 | 1968-04-15 | Jim Lefebvre | PIT | Bob Veale | down 2-1 | b9 | -2- | 2 | 2 | 0.88 | 4.63 | *ENDED GAME*:Home Run; Davis Scores | ||
| 5 | 1970-06-14 | Bill Sudakis | CHC | Phil Regan | down 4-3 | b9 | -2- | 2 | 2 | 0.86 | 4.98 | *ENDED GAME*:Home Run; Joshua Scores | ||
| 6 | 1973-08-14 | Ken McMullen | MON | Balor Moore | down 3-2 | b9 | 1-- | 2 | 2 | 0.91 | 3.31 | *ENDED GAME*:Home Run; Russell Scores | ||
| 7 | 1977-07-24 | Davey Lopes | NYM | Bob Apodaca | down 3-2 | b9 | 1-3 | 2 | 3 | 0.80 | 7.19 | *ENDED GAME*:Home Run; Martinez Scores/unER; Mota Scores/unER; Lopes Scores/unER | ||
| 8 | 1977-09-12 | Ron Cey | SDP | Rollie Fingers | down 6-5 | b10 | 1-- | 2 | 2 | 0.90 | 3.45 | *ENDED GAME*:Home Run; Russell Scores | ||
| 9 | 1979-08-27 | Dusty Baker | PIT | Enrique Romo | down 2-1 | b9 | -23 | 2 | 3 | 0.77 | 8.19 | *ENDED GAME*:Home Run; Martinez Scores; Joshua Scores | ||
| 10 | 1994-05-09 | Tim Wallach | HOU | Mitch Williams | down 8-7 | b9 | 1-- | 2 | 2 | 0.90 | 3.44 | *ENDED GAME*:Home Run; Piazza Scores | ||
| 11 | 1994-07-29 | Delino DeShields | HOU | John Hudek | down 5-4 | b9 | 12- | 2 | 4 (2-1) | 3 | 0.83 | 6.60 | *ENDED GAME*:Home Run (Fly Ball to Deep RF); Webster Scores; Butler Scores | |
| 12 | 1998-04-12 | Raul Mondesi | HOU | Billy Wagner | down 6-5 | b10 | 1-- | 2 | 2 (1-0) | 2 | 0.90 | 3.44 | *ENDED GAME*:Home Run (Fly Ball to Deep LF-CF); Howard Scores |
Notice that there are two homers (Shuban in 1952 and Sudakis in 1970) that exactly mirror Gibson's feat down to the score of 4-3.
This might not seem so notable, except that there have only been 8 other homers of just that variety in all of MLB since 1950:
| Date ▴ | Batter | Tm | Opp | Pitcher | Score | Inn | RoB | Out | Pit(cnt) | RBI | WPA | RE24 | Play Description | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1952-06-20 | George Shuba | BRO | PIT | Ted Wilks | down 4-3 | b9 | -2- | 2 | 3 (1-1) | 2 | 0.86 | 4.96 | *ENDED GAME*:Home Run; Hodges Scores | |
| 1959-09-22 | George Altman | CHC | SFG | Sam Jones | down 4-3 | b9 | -2- | 2 | 2 | 0.86 | 5.01 | *ENDED GAME*:Home Run (Deep CF-RF); Dark Scores | ||
| 1965-08-19 (2) | Don Landrum | CHC | CIN | Billy McCool | down 4-3 | b9 | -2- | 2 | 2 | 0.86 | 4.92 | *ENDED GAME*:Home Run; Burton Scores | ||
| 1970-06-14 | Bill Sudakis | LAD | CHC | Phil Regan | down 4-3 | b9 | -2- | 2 | 2 | 0.86 | 4.98 | *ENDED GAME*:Home Run; Joshua Scores | ||
| 1980-04-12 | Dave Concepcion | CIN | ATL | Al Hrabosky | down 4-3 | b9 | -2- | 2 | 2 | 0.87 | 4.91 | *ENDED GAME*:Home Run; Collins Scores | ||
| 1980-09-29 | Joel Youngblood | NYM | PIT | Grant Jackson | down 4-3 | b10 | -2- | 2 | 2 | 0.87 | 4.86 | *ENDED GAME*:Home Run; Brooks Scores | ||
| 1989-04-24 | Rob Deer | MIL | MIN | Jeff Reardon | down 4-3 | b9 | -2- | 2 | 8 (2-2) | 2 | 0.86 | 4.98 | *ENDED GAME*:Home Run (Line Drive to Deep CF-RF); Sheffield Scores | |
| 1995-07-16 | Manny Ramirez | CLE | OAK | Dennis Eckersley | down 4-3 | b12 | -2- | 2 | 7 (2-2) | 2 | 0.85 | 5.21 | *ENDED GAME*:Home Run (Fly Ball to Deep LF); Lofton Scores | |
| 2000-04-06 | Cliff Floyd | FLA | SFG | John Johnstone | down 4-3 | b9 | -2- | 2 | 1 (0-0) | 2 | 0.85 | 5.10 | *ENDED GAME*:Home Run; Clapinski Scores | |
| 2008-07-09 | Josh Hamilton | TEX | LAA | Francisco Rodriguez | down 4-3 | b9 | -2- | 2 | 5 (3-1) | 2 | 0.85 | 5.14 | *ENDED GAME*:Home Run (Fly Ball to Deep RF); Young Scores |
Only 6 of them happened in the bottom of the 9th. Notice, though, that Eckersley was himself victimized a second time.
Gibson's homer is the only time that exact scenario has occurred in the playoffs. (Lenny Dykstra's 1986 homer against Dave Smith was the same except for a score of 5-4 before the walk-off.)
Did Tommy know that Gibson was destined to hit that homer with the help of a little Dodger magic?
January 21st, 2011 at 8:20 am
[...] This post was mentioned on Twitter by Art HappyHour, Baseball Reference. Baseball Reference said: B-R Blog: Did Tommy Lasorda know? http://bit.ly/hgoBLI [...]
January 21st, 2011 at 8:51 am
I love anytime Rob Deer gets remembered.
Quite the neat little find. What was the idea that lef to searching out this info?
January 21st, 2011 at 8:54 am
In his email Kahuna said he was playing around with the event finder....for the full story, he'll have to be the one to post.
January 21st, 2011 at 9:33 am
Andy,
Just loved this article and waht a great use of Event Finder. Keep up the good work!
January 21st, 2011 at 9:44 am
That was some double-header in '65. After being shutout in a 10 inning no-hitter in the first game, the Cubs trailed 4-0 in the 8th in the second game. However, Billy Williams hit a 3 run homer in the 8th and Landrum hit his dramatic shot, earning the Cubs a split.
January 21st, 2011 at 10:16 am
As I recall somebody had just stolen second opening first base and giving Larussa the opportunity to walk Gibson and pitch to Sax.
January 21st, 2011 at 10:44 am
^ Yeah, Mike Davis if I recall.
January 21st, 2011 at 10:49 am
If they had walked KG they would have had to run for him and been out of bench players. Even if Sax got a single (unlikely) he was followed by Mickey Hatcher. Unless both of them got hits the game would have gone into extra innings. Never understood why this decision was not considered at least controversial.
January 21st, 2011 at 10:55 am
Good points, #8 especially. I never thought about it before. I presume Gibson's injury had something to do with it...LaRussa has to have been asked about this at some point--anybody know?
January 21st, 2011 at 11:14 am
I suspect he may have assumed KG was incapable of hitting well. Never heard him asked about it.
January 21st, 2011 at 11:18 am
Oft forgotten, in light of all that followed:
Mickey Hatcher's 2-run HR off Dave Stewart in the 1st inning -- matching his power output for the regular season.
Hatcher did it again in the opening frame of game 5, off Storm Davis. His line for the 5-game Series: 7 for 19, 2 HRs, a double, 5 runs, 5 RBI; my goodness, he even drew a walk!
January 21st, 2011 at 11:27 am
It's a very crude approach, but just based purely on their 1988 batting averages, the probability of Sax and Hatcher getting two hits in a row was about 8%, compared to Gibson's HR rate, both in 1988 and over his career, of about 4%. There's about a million things this doesn't take into account, but it gives you a sense of why it would take a lot of countervailing factors to make it logical to walk Gibson and put the winning run on base.
January 21st, 2011 at 11:34 am
@8, Stan Cook: "Never understood why this decision [not to walk Gibson] was not considered at least controversial."
I'll suggest three reasons:
-- Because of the maxim that you never intentionally put the potential winning run on base.
-- Because Gibson, though dangerous, was not among the top HR hitters of his day. He cracked the top-10 in HRs just 3 times, those being 7th, 9th and 10th. He never hit 30 in a season.
-- Because Gibson could barely move. Remember how he hobbled around after fouling one off? Seriously, if Gibby had pulled a hard "base hit" into RF, I think there's an excellent chance that he would have been thrown out at 1B.
It's almost impossible for us to objectively assess that strategic choice from this vantage point. Try as we may, we can't blot out our knowledge that Gibson did hit the HR. But there's a darn good reason that, in the moment, Jack Buck shouted, "I DON'T BELIEVE ... WHAT I JUST SAW!"
January 21st, 2011 at 12:09 pm
Another reason might be that Eck was insanly good that year....
January 21st, 2011 at 12:49 pm
"Another reason might be that Eck was insanly good that year"
Especially against righties.
Actually I just looked up Eck's right/left splits from that year and they were not as great as I remember; although I believe he struck out every third right handed hitter.
"Because Gibson could barely move"
Arguably a reason to put him on base where he was less dangerous than with the bat.
-- Because Gibson, though dangerous, was not among the top HR hitters of his day. He cracked the top-10 in HRs just 3 times, those being 7th, 9th and 10th. He never hit 30 in a season."
Yes but he was the MVP, deservedly or not.
I really don't think this was obvious; just bemused that TL was never criticized for it. I remember when Lasorda pitched to Jack Clark with Van Slyke on deck and caught hell for a much more defensible decision IMO.
"
January 21st, 2011 at 1:34 pm
Stan, I think Gibson deserved the '88 MVP, or at least was one of the 3 most deserving players. But that doesn't really seem to go to the heart of the "walk him or face him?" question.
There's no real rationale for walking Gibson in that spot except for the possibility of a home run. Sure, LaRussa must have been concerned about Gibby getting a base hit to drive in the tying run; but there's not a significant difference in base-hit expectation between Gibson (especially in his hobbled state) and Steve Sax -- and certainly not enough difference in favor of Gibson to justify putting on the potential winning run. (BTW, Sax and Gibson each hit .276 vs. RHP for their careers.)
So I think it comes down to, how much do you fear the Gibson HR possibility? And thus, his career and season HR rates would be very important factors in the decision.
"[Eck] struck out every third right handed hitter [that year]."
True, but the flip side is, Gibson fanned about 2.5 times as often as Sax did that year.
January 21st, 2011 at 3:38 pm
Thanks for posting this, Andy! I like the details you added to what I looked up (e.g., the Dykstra homer off Dave Smith).
What was the idea that lef to searching out this info?
I grew up a Dodger fan, and to this day just thinking about Gibson's home run (and Scully's call of it) gives me chills. I wanted to check whether the same exact situation had come up before in regular-season games. What caught my eye was the results when I searched by the six situational criteria applicable to Gibson's home run: 1) Bottom of the ninth inning, 2) two outs, 3) runner on second, 4) batter appears as a pinch hitter, 5) with his team trailing 4-3, and 6) hits a game-ending homer. That has happened exactly twice in all of MLB since 1950 — the Shuba and Sudakis homers, nos. 1 and 5 in Andy's first list. In other words, no team but the Dodgers has gotten a game-ending home run in that precise situation.
To cinch matters, look at no. 4 on Andy's first list above. It tells us that, on one previous occasion, the Dodgers had won a game when trailing by one run with two outs in the bottom of the ninth on a two-run homer with a runner named Davis on second base. Now that I know this, I have to figure Lasorda was feeling pretty confident once Mike Davis stole second during Gibson's at-bat. Heck, that may even have been why Lasorda had Davis steal! (-;þ
As you can tell, I was tickled by all these nice little symmetries.
As to John's comment in #13 that LaRussa may have wanted to follow the Book in not intentionally putting the winning run on base, I'll note two things. First, of the 23 regular-season IBBs issued since 1950 to pinch hitters whose teams trail by one in the ninth inning with two outs and a runner on second, 18 were issued to hitters on the home team and only five to hitters on the visiting team. That tells me that LaRussa was supremely confident in Eckersley's ability to retire Gibson without damage. I agree with John's comment that "There's no real rationale for walking Gibson in that spot except for the possibility of a home run." Second, regular-season slash numbers for pinch hitters in this situation are .174/.300/.255, with the comparatively high OBP figure due to walks given to take advantage of the open base. Pinch hitters homer in this situation literally about once a decade. So with Eck on the mound and Gibson barely able to stand up, TLR had good reason to think his closer would not need to give an intentional walk to wrap up the A's Game 1 victory.
Tommy showed 'im, though. He knew — he'd done his Play Index homework.
January 21st, 2011 at 3:39 pm
I was at that Mondesi game back in '98.
January 21st, 2011 at 3:42 pm
Hey, without Mike Davis drawing an extremely unlikely walk against Eckersley, that whole thing never happens.
Davis even walked 3 more times in that series, which considering he averaged 40 for a 162 game season was remarkable.
January 21st, 2011 at 3:45 pm
As for Lasorda "knowing" it would happen? If he knew Gibson was going to hit a home run, he'd have used him to pinch hit for Griffin instead of Mike Davis. Then he would have still had Davis to use if the game went to extras.
Not to take away at all from the thrill of that moment, but realistically it was a last chance roll of the dice and there's no way Lasorda had a clue it would happen.
January 21st, 2011 at 4:24 pm
Interesting that Houston is on the wrong end of this list 3 times from 94-98.
January 21st, 2011 at 5:42 pm
Should we change the name of the "Mendoza Line" to the "Deer Crossing"?
January 21st, 2011 at 6:03 pm
Walk Gibson and then pick off. If he's more than two steps off the bag, there is no way he's getting back in.
January 22nd, 2011 at 12:24 am
@20, Rich: "Deer Crossing" -- I love it!
But the place batters should fear most is Bergenfield. Catcher Bill Bergen is the only modern player with at least 3,000 PAs and a BA below .200. And "below .200" doesn't quite capture it; Bergen batted .170 in an 11-year career (1901-11), with just a one season over .190. He hit 2 HRs, 21 triples and 45 doubles in over 3,000 AB, giving him a slugging average of .201.
When your slugging average straddles the Mendoza Line -- that's Bergenfield. "Where scoring opportunities go to die...."
January 22nd, 2011 at 1:00 am
The Manny-Eckersley homer is a classic from the magical '95 Indians season. On the replay (which I own, of COURSE on the VHS "Wahoo! What a Finish!"), you can clearly see Eck just going "Wow."
January 22nd, 2011 at 3:16 am
I know it doesn't fit the "down by 1 w/ 2 out" but....
The walkoff HR by Podsednik in game 2 of the '05 World Series doesn't seem to get the pub it deserves.
Such a great, great game. & having a guy that hit zero HRs in the reg season hitting a walkoff.
January 23rd, 2011 at 2:06 pm
Not to take away at all from the thrill of that moment, but realistically it was a last chance roll of the dice and there's no way Lasorda had a clue it would happen.
Don't worry, Locode — I was joking. I love the coincidences involved with Shuba, Sudakis, and Davis, which I never would have discovered without the Play Index. Those little details just add to my enjoyment of Gibson's totally unexpected (and hence ultra-dramatic) homer. Realistically, all Tommy knew was that the odds of Gibson's keeping the Dodgers in the game were really, really long.
January 24th, 2011 at 3:39 am
It's really a simple answer. One that was published in the Spring 1989 Street & Smith's Yearly Guide to the MLB year ahead.
A rather long article, explained how well the Dodgers had scouted the A's pitching staffs, as well as hitters, & more importantly Eckersly. In 3 & 2 situations 10 times out of ten, Eckersly threw a backdoor slider in that era. Dodger scouting reports told Gibson if he could get a full count, he would be seeing a backdoor slider, and Eckersly wouldn't relent, no matter how many foul balls Gibson hit, in between what was strike 2, then a host of foul balls, then his infamous HR, in which he knew exactly what pitch was coming, and already got plenty of looks at Eck's backdoor slider, when Gibson fouled off all of those previous backdoor sliders. Even Lasorda, said that game was won by the Scouts, sure by Kirk Gibson's Home Run. Yet Gibby's at bat, wasn't anything spectacular when you know he is sitting on the very pitch he wanted & got. Not to take anything away from Gibson or Eckersly, you can hand that game ball to the Scouts. Lasorda agreed, only die hard Gibson fans would disagree.
January 24th, 2011 at 4:51 pm
Only Kirk Gibson did this in the World Series and his one AB changed the entire series. Naturally, I still have the ticket stubs from this one moment in time.
January 24th, 2011 at 8:36 pm
I love the name change to "Deer Crossing".
Deer, like all deer, had a thing for fences and the riches to be found beyond them.
January 25th, 2011 at 2:40 am
In the Kirk Gibson case, I heard later that there was earlier discussion of Eck's tendencies; still I marvel at the homer and Eck's poise (since it is an occupational hazard). Many a great closer have been beat by walkoffs. That's one of the charms of the game.
As a Dodger fan I cringe as I count the years since as we go without a championship. And then I remember the Cubs and hope they also can squeeze out a few championships in a row.
January 26th, 2011 at 11:35 am
I remember an interview that Lasorda did when he was asked if he did know something. His answer was that he knew Gibson was a very powerful upper body guy. Even though Gibson could barely walk it didn't matter. Gibson didn't generate his power from his lower half.