David Ortiz is having the best season in history by a 35+ year old DH
Posted by Andy on September 6, 2011
David Ortiz has been one of my favorite targets in the past, so it's only fair to say it now: he's having the best season ever by a designated hitter at least 35 years old. Aside from being quite consistent this year, his OPS+ ranks tops among DH's who qualified for the batting title in their Age 35 season or later:
| Rk | Player | Year | Age | Tm | G | PA | AB | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | BB | SO | Pos | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | David Ortiz | 162 | 2011 | 35 | BOS | 125 | 515 | 447 | 73 | 140 | 35 | 1 | 28 | 89 | 66 | 69 | .313 | .402 | .584 | .986 | *D/3 |
| 2 | Edgar Martinez | 160 | 2001 | 38 | SEA | 132 | 581 | 470 | 80 | 144 | 40 | 1 | 23 | 116 | 93 | 90 | .306 | .423 | .543 | .966 | *D/3 |
| 3 | Edgar Martinez | 158 | 1998 | 35 | SEA | 154 | 672 | 556 | 86 | 179 | 46 | 1 | 29 | 102 | 106 | 96 | .322 | .429 | .565 | .993 | *D/3 |
| 4 | Edgar Martinez | 157 | 2000 | 37 | SEA | 153 | 665 | 556 | 100 | 180 | 31 | 0 | 37 | 145 | 96 | 95 | .324 | .423 | .579 | 1.002 | *D/3 |
| 5 | Jim Thome | 155 | 2006 | 35 | CHW | 143 | 610 | 490 | 108 | 141 | 26 | 0 | 42 | 109 | 107 | 147 | .288 | .416 | .598 | 1.014 | *D/3 |
| 6 | Edgar Martinez | 152 | 1999 | 36 | SEA | 142 | 608 | 502 | 86 | 169 | 35 | 1 | 24 | 86 | 97 | 99 | .337 | .447 | .554 | 1.001 | *D/3 |
| 7 | Jim Thome | 150 | 2007 | 36 | CHW | 130 | 536 | 432 | 79 | 119 | 19 | 0 | 35 | 96 | 95 | 134 | .275 | .410 | .563 | .973 | *D/3 |
| 8 | Frank Robinson | 150 | 1973 | 37 | CAL | 147 | 630 | 534 | 85 | 142 | 29 | 0 | 30 | 97 | 82 | 93 | .266 | .372 | .489 | .861 | *D7 |
| 9 | Jason Giambi | 148 | 2006 | 35 | NYY | 139 | 579 | 446 | 92 | 113 | 25 | 0 | 37 | 113 | 110 | 106 | .253 | .413 | .558 | .971 | *D3 |
| 10 | Hal McRae | 147 | 1982 | 36 | KCR | 159 | 676 | 613 | 91 | 189 | 46 | 8 | 27 | 133 | 55 | 61 | .308 | .369 | .542 | .910 | *D/7 |
| 11 | Frank Thomas | 146 | 2003 | 35 | CHW | 153 | 662 | 546 | 87 | 146 | 35 | 0 | 42 | 105 | 100 | 115 | .267 | .390 | .562 | .952 | *D3 |
| 12 | Chili Davis | 146 | 1995 | 35 | CAL | 119 | 522 | 424 | 81 | 135 | 23 | 0 | 20 | 86 | 89 | 79 | .318 | .429 | .514 | .943 | *D |
| 13 | Paul Molitor | 143 | 1993 | 36 | TOR | 160 | 725 | 636 | 121 | 211 | 37 | 5 | 22 | 111 | 77 | 71 | .332 | .402 | .509 | .911 | *D3 |
| 14 | Rico Carty | 143 | 1976 | 36 | CLE | 152 | 628 | 552 | 67 | 171 | 34 | 0 | 13 | 83 | 67 | 45 | .310 | .379 | .442 | .821 | *D3/7 |
| 15 | Harold Baines | 142 | 1995 | 36 | BAL | 127 | 459 | 385 | 60 | 115 | 19 | 1 | 24 | 63 | 70 | 45 | .299 | .403 | .540 | .943 | *D |
| 16 | Edgar Martinez | 141 | 2003 | 40 | SEA | 145 | 603 | 497 | 72 | 146 | 25 | 0 | 24 | 98 | 92 | 95 | .294 | .406 | .489 | .895 | *D |
| 17 | Frank Robinson | 141 | 1974 | 38 | TOT | 144 | 579 | 477 | 81 | 117 | 27 | 3 | 22 | 68 | 85 | 95 | .245 | .367 | .453 | .820 | *D/37 |
| 18 | Frank Thomas | 140 | 2006 | 38 | OAK | 137 | 559 | 466 | 77 | 126 | 11 | 0 | 39 | 114 | 81 | 81 | .270 | .381 | .545 | .926 | *D |
| 19 | Ellis Burks | 139 | 2002 | 37 | CLE | 138 | 570 | 518 | 92 | 156 | 28 | 0 | 32 | 91 | 44 | 108 | .301 | .362 | .541 | .903 | *D/7 |
| 20 | Paul Molitor | 139 | 1992 | 35 | MIL | 158 | 700 | 609 | 89 | 195 | 36 | 7 | 12 | 89 | 73 | 66 | .320 | .389 | .461 | .851 | *D3 |
September 6th, 2011 at 8:58 pm
My first question was, how many DHs have there been at those ages?
I don't know what threshold Andy set, but I looked for seasons with at least 50% games at DH. My top 20 results match his, so I'll guess he used that. There have been 99 such player-seasons. Median OPS+ is 119. Half the group was 35 or 36. The oldest was Yaz, age 42 in '82.
September 6th, 2011 at 9:04 pm
Andy-
I haven't specifically seen Ortiz as a target of yours. How and why?
September 6th, 2011 at 9:06 pm
Thome was 182 last year, but in only 340 PA.
I've never been a fan of "DH-only" lists. Feels like giving a guy a bonus for not playing in the field. (Fun, though)
September 6th, 2011 at 9:07 pm
look at ortiz's k's for this season. isn't he a 150 k guy usually? doesn't he normally have 120 by now?
September 6th, 2011 at 9:07 pm
This is a neat list, but that's a heck of a logjam at the top there. I don't know if 2 pts of OPS+ really screams "best" to me as much as it screams "probably the same." Again, neat list, I just like qualifiers.
September 6th, 2011 at 9:21 pm
#4:
last two seasons were 134 and 145, but that was mainly due to his wrist injuries. last year in paticular, he had trouble catching up with inside hear
from 2003-2009, he averaged 110 k's a season
September 6th, 2011 at 9:25 pm
BSK, I picked on him in previous seasons. I bet the 'related posts' links to some of them.
September 6th, 2011 at 9:49 pm
I think that the only appropriate response is for Theo to sign him to a contract that matches in duration and dollars A-Rod's.
September 6th, 2011 at 10:01 pm
Big Slapi is back on the juice.
September 6th, 2011 at 10:19 pm
Edgar Martinez made this list every season after age 35, except his last year at 41, and his age 39 season when he had only 407 PAs (but had 139 OPS+, which would have made this list).
I was at a preseason game in Vancouver years ago when thrid-baseman Edgar twisted his ankle (or some such injury) on the worn, crappy turf there (now, they've got the new, high-tech stuff). Seemed like he never fully recovered from that, hence the move to DH. Obviously, it worked out for him and the Mariners.
September 6th, 2011 at 10:39 pm
Who cares?
September 6th, 2011 at 10:47 pm
Thome from age 35 to 40, has an OPS+ of 140, but a point or two higher if you pull his LAD pinch hit stint/joke and a few games here and there played at first that I was to lazy to pull out. Good for second.
Edgar had a 152 OPS+ from ages 35-40. He hung around a season too long, and it brought down his OPS+ 8 points to 142.
September 6th, 2011 at 10:49 pm
Bigger question Chuck…
Who cares about who cares?
And who will care for guys like that.
God bless your wife.
September 6th, 2011 at 10:50 pm
#9 & #11: traumitized yankee fans?
September 6th, 2011 at 11:37 pm
Big game tonight those numbers went way up.
September 7th, 2011 at 12:16 am
David Ortiz has been one of my favorite targets in the past. . .
Related posts:
. . .
The end of the road for David Ortiz
Aha. Pretty clear now why Ortiz is experiencing so much success. Andy said he was "done."
September 7th, 2011 at 12:47 am
@15 .. He sure did, but what a silly game!
Just noticed the game scores of the winner (Lester: 81) and loser (Perez: 5). Makes for a differential of 76. I wonder what the biggest one of those floating around is...
September 7th, 2011 at 12:49 am
Maybe he found Batlantis.
September 7th, 2011 at 1:55 am
@17
I'd start with the 1912 Tigers strike game. Coombs 61, Travers -52, for a difference of 113.
September 7th, 2011 at 3:17 am
@17, @19.
Or, how about the lowest combined game score when one (or both) pitchers tosses a complete game.
Maybe this game with a total game score of 3: http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/SLA/SLA193704210.shtml
Oral Hildebrand of the Browns goes the distance for a game score of 11, beating Vern Kennedy of the ChiSox with a game score of -8 over 4.1 innings.
I also like this one. http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/DET/DET192809290.shtml
Elam Vangilder of the Tigers goes the distance to beat the Yankees, but his game score of 13 is bested by his mound opponent, Tom Zachary, with a score of 17, despite facing 11 batters in only two-thirds of an inning.
September 7th, 2011 at 3:39 am
This is great. I'm hoping he'll now have time to release the results of his investigation. He's been strangely silent on it, but I'm sure his people have cracked the case and we can look forward to a press conference where he suddenly can speak better english and where he'll be surrounded by Bud Selig, George Mitchell, Peter Gammons and every ESPN on-air personality.
September 7th, 2011 at 6:31 am
KT, that's a fair dig, but please also go back and find all the posts I've written where I was correct, and comment on those too.
September 7th, 2011 at 8:52 am
That's weird, everyone of these players is in the American League.
September 7th, 2011 at 9:14 am
Does anybody here know how Mike Jacobs was caught using HGH?
Was it a simple urine test? Did they draw blood? Does the player's union allow for unprovoked blood drawing? I'd think not. Also, many PEDs are not detected directly, but the urine sample usually contains tell tale chemicals that are produced because of the certain PED, is this the case for HGH?
I was just wondering, because I thought I remembered reading they had not set on a definitive test, not even the anti-doping agencies used by the Olympics and the Tour de France.
I know once you stop using PEDs their is a drop off, which would explain Ortiz's down year, then the body begins to generate its own testosterone after a year or so, but it rarely returns to past levels, and it certainly does not return to past levels at the age of 35, especially after using the PEDs he was accused of.
There are several 'clean ways' to boost ones own testosterone levels. Right now there is even a FLOWMAX/SIMBALTA type commercial floating around aimed at 40ish men, claiming enhanced testosterone levels. That and a extremely high protein diet, hard, exhaustive - complete body exercises done at max weight (like dead-lifts, leg-presses) that while exhausting, force the body out of necessity to produce more natural 'growth' chemicals.
Just wondering out loud how David has returned to form after several down years, making the 'list' and the rigorous testing done today.
September 7th, 2011 at 9:42 am
@ #24
Could it be that his wrist injury has finally healed?
September 7th, 2011 at 10:49 am
Best season ever? If all you go by is OPS. Look at Martinez in 200 and Thome in 2006. Much better if you consider other stats but probably the best is Molitor in 1993.
September 7th, 2011 at 11:04 am
please also go back and find all the posts I've written where I was correct
Shouldn't take long.
🙂
September 7th, 2011 at 11:41 am
KT, that's a fair dig, but please also go back and find all the posts I've written where I was correct, and comment on those too.
[*yawns, stretches*]
No chance. I'd rather just kibitz. (-;þ I look forward to each new entry you post with the "____ is/are done" theme, Andy, and I'm sure many others do too. Still, you've got to know it's gonna get you some teasin'.
September 7th, 2011 at 11:48 am
Ortiz has spoken of "waiting for his pitch to hit" this year. I find it almost laughable, because he's thirty-freakin-five and a former perennial MVP contender.
And yet, Jason (#4) is absolutely right: he has drastically cut down his strikeout rate this year. 2009-10 were the two worst years of his full-time career with the K rate (21.4% and 23.9%, while going over 18% only one other time in Boston). This season, a career-best 13.4%.
September 7th, 2011 at 12:42 pm
Molitor by far....OPS is soooo over rated
September 7th, 2011 at 1:02 pm
I may be old, yeah, I am old. But just curious where Molitor, Winfield, Thome, Eddie Murray, Reggie Jackson, Edgar Martinez, Yaz, even Biggie Frank end up on career accumulation lists without the DH.
Prior to 1973, a lot of guys - even Hall of Famers 33 years of age and up, ste=arted to take a day or two per week off. Do Murray, Winfield, Palmeiro, Brett, Molitor get to 3000 hits?
Murray, Jackson, Thome, Manny, or Palmeiro reach 500 HR's?
September 7th, 2011 at 1:04 pm
I hate when people get carried away when a guy has a great season to say "Steroids!" but in this case, I don't care. We KNOW he used PEDs before, so why should we think he isn't on any now?
September 7th, 2011 at 1:26 pm
Amongst players with 75% of games played at DH, Paul Molitor's 1993 season clocks in at 5.7 WAR (including a -0.1 dWAR for 23 games at 1B).
September 7th, 2011 at 2:06 pm
@26
Lol.
September 7th, 2011 at 2:36 pm
@32, Rich, et. al. Ortiz is going to be one of the great unsolved puzzles of the steroids era. He has six years and 1700 plate appearances of an OPS+of 107 for the Twins. Then he goes to Boston and hits like a maniac for five years, right in the middle of the steroids era, then drops back to the performance level he had in Minn. (far earlier than mere age would suggest), then surges again. He's failed one steroids test (that we know of). And, of the failures or even those just suspected, he's the only guy that both MLB and the MLBPA come rushing to defend. MLB even uses him in charity work. Every other slugger/user, whether they were the surly Barry Bonds, the disliked A-Rod, the comical Manny, or the previously admired Palmiero or McGwire, is tossed on the scrap heap of official and public contempt. Not Ortiz. Why? What's special about Ortiz that MLB supports him so openly. Is it an undisclosed flaw in the testing? Is it that his 2003 results showed something other than an officially banned substance? There's no evidence that's exonerated him and there is evidence he used. Why is David Ortiz treated differently than everyone else?
September 7th, 2011 at 3:52 pm
"it's only fair to say it now: he's having the best season ever by a designated hitter at least 35 years old."
Wins Above Replacement
Edgar Martinez 2000 = +6.1
Paul Molitor 1992 = +5.8
Paul Molitor: 1993 = +5.7
Edgar Martinez 2001 = +5.6
Edgar Martinez 2001 = +5.2
Frank Robinson 1973 = +4.5
Jason Giambi 2006 = +4.1
Hal McRae 1982 = +4.0
David Ortiz 2011 = +3.9
September 7th, 2011 at 3:54 pm
By the end of the season, Ortiz might rank in the the top 5 on that WAR list.
But somewhere Kahuna Tuna is snickering as this post does have its sensationalistic elements...
September 7th, 2011 at 3:56 pm
Fair to bring up steroids with Ortiz. Just like A-Rod and the biggest fraud of them all, Mr. Barry Bonds.
September 7th, 2011 at 4:06 pm
"By the end of the season, Ortiz might rank in the the top 5 on that WAR list."
Now THERE is a catchy article headline!"
But it's more accurate.
🙂
September 7th, 2011 at 4:08 pm
of course Barry Bonds won 4 straight MVP's while over age 35 essentially playing DH by standing out in left field for 120 games.
September 7th, 2011 at 4:43 pm
Worst OPS+ among DH's who qualified for the batting title in their age-35 season or later:
Scott Hatteberg, age 35, 2005 A's: 523 PA, 81 OPS+
Dave Parker, age 40, 1991 Angels (501 PA, 76 OPS+) and Blue Jays (40 PA, 130 OPS+): 541 PA, 81 OPS+
somewhere Kahuna Tuna is snickering as this post does have its sensationalistic elements...
Nahhh. Sensationalistic is "He done — fork stab!" "He might rank in the top five by season's end"? A comment like that is a model of restraint and perspicacity.
September 7th, 2011 at 5:10 pm
@40
But he didn't just stand there. His fielding metrics were only negative in 2001. His dWAR was actually positive for the four year period. His fielding didn't really go completely south until his last season.
Interesting question would be how many batters of any position can top OPS+ of 162 at 35+. By my count, that's happened 31 times before.
Barry Bonds (5) 2000-2004
Babe Ruth (4) 1930-33
Ted Williams (4) 1954,1956-58
Hank Aaron (2) 1969,1971
Chipper Jones (2) 2007-2008
Tris Speaker (2) 1923,1925
Ty Cobb (2) 1922,1925
Cap Anson 1888
Bob Johnson 1944
Honus Wagner 1909
Lefty O'Doul 1932
Manny Ramirez 2008
Mark McGwire 1999
Nap Lajoie 1910
Sam Thompson 1895
Stan Musial 1957
Zack Wheat 1924
... of course, Ortiz after yesterday is up to 165 now, but I won't redo my search.
September 7th, 2011 at 7:50 pm
He's the only 35-plus guy on the list since the DH itself turned 35.
September 8th, 2011 at 7:18 am
DavidRF, that list is incomplete. A quick look shows Aaron also qualifying in '73. And though only 390 PA just before the expanded schedule came in, in his last year & at 41, Williams equaled his lifetime OPS + of 190. By the way, I have seen several player's seasons & lifetime OPS + adjusted on this Web Site, marginally, including Williams in the latter 2 examples.
Since this site represents WAR so strongly, a noble effort to figure out total value & has one of the main versions of it here, I will continually advocate for this:
A separate thread that discusses all the reasons for the often large variations in distinct WAR versions, & other total player value systems. Using EXAMPLES of players who vary the most between systems over a career! So we can analyze & attempt to get closer to the truth of what are flaws & advantages in each system. Major & smaller distinct treatments of value re: walks especially, batter Ks, fielding metrics, how positional value is computed, total value of non-offense & base running, how errors & good fielding effect things, especially ERA +...
Is anyone here satisfied that they know just why there are major differences in how good player's are over a career? And does anyone have any idea whether B-R WAR is better than other versions?
Because I honestly have no idea which are closer to the truth, & under what circumstances which systems tend to be better. I would appreciate an open discussion amongst folks who know enough to try & suss out what factors are better or worse in reflecting real value.
September 8th, 2011 at 1:26 pm
I've never been a fan of "DH-only" lists. Feels like giving a guy a bonus for not playing in the field.
Does anybody ever slag on AL pitchers for not hitting?
September 8th, 2011 at 4:23 pm
WAR shows he's a ways off from best ever and I don't see him making up over 1 WAR in only 20 games. So, no, not best ever. 🙂
Also, PI shows Martinez at 5.7 in 2000, not 6.1. Ah, you're looking at oWAR.
September 8th, 2011 at 8:59 pm
Apropos of what I said just above, that is true if this version of WAR, B-R WAR, is accurate. I am not a reflexive naysayer about WAR due to some imperfections, like many of Dugout Central. But it ems, would be irrational to assume both that any WAR is perfect, or even if it is close, absent closer examination.
And I have not even heard a case made about whether the WAR used here-& it should always be specified which version is being used-is more accurate than other total value systems, such as Fangraphs WAR.
Sluggers whose main value are HRs, many time who K often-their ratings seem at large variance between systems. A Killebrew, or Stargell, likely Big Mac. And defense is another big swing. Let's examine an example of a big middle infielder rating discrepancy.
Lou Whitaker. On this site, just about exactly at 70. I recall somewhat higher than other systems. If we were looking at just total WAR, then even the significantly lower assessment has him as high as you can get amongst unelected men! But it matters how high he is, since sweet Lou was unusually consistent: but another way to put it is he had an unimpressive peak by HOF standards.
And I think most realize that peak value is at least as crucial in evaluating how good a player someone is as total career accomplishments. John Q. averaged best 7 years & career WAR: I might add top 3 years (may not weight it the same). At any rate, we CANNOT just throw around one WAR system as if inviolate, & not even test whether it is close! I mean, sometimes the career WAR swings are on the order of 20%!!