56 Responses to “9+ Games Of aLI>=1.3, and WPA>=.37 and RE24>=2.5”

1. Tmckelv Says:
   July 11th, 2011 at 1:15 pm

   Interesting list. Not quite sure what to make of it since there are 2 of the ol' BR punching bags (Dante Bichette and Joe Carter) both with 11 and Ted Williams at 9.

   As for Jeter's game, the reason it was special was because it coincided with his 3000th hit...and within that context, the individual numbers like WPA, etc were outstanding. As the data proves out it wasn't all that unique compared to ALL games.

2. DavidRF Says:
   July 11th, 2011 at 2:16 pm

   @1
   This search requires play-by-play data so its only picks up the latter part of Ted Williams' career.

   Speaking of which, any word on when bb-ref syncs with retrosheet again? They've got 1918 boxes, some 1948-49 play-by-plays and presumably other data fixes.

3. Doug Says:
   July 11th, 2011 at 7:19 pm

   Interesting (to me, anyway) all the Astros (Cedeno, Wynn, Cruz, Morgan, Staub) on the list.

   In general terms, do more tight, low-scoring games translate into more high leverage opportunities?

4. Doug Says:
   July 11th, 2011 at 7:20 pm

   Re: Astros

   Bob Watson's on this list too.

5. Gerry Says:
   July 12th, 2011 at 12:22 am

   Joe Adcock is top of the list in Batting Average (.833) and On-Base Percentage (.861). Reggie Smith leads in Slugging and OPS. Bonds is number 2 in all four categories.

6. Mustachioed Repetition Says:
   July 12th, 2011 at 12:35 am

   In general terms, do more tight, low-scoring games translate into more high leverage opportunities?

   It's a tricky question. I would think that yes, they do. But the average LI by definition is 1.0, and I think that's supposed to be the case whether 1968 or 2000. I don't know how often or over how many seasons the leverage calculations are calibrated (I know that if you look at any single season, the avg LI is usually *not* exactly 1.00, so it's not calibrated on a season-by-season basis.) It's possible that the average PA in 1968 was of higher leverage than that of 2000, and yet the LI stat will not present it that way, because it is showing LI on a relative scale. I'm not sure, I may be missing something.

7. Timmy p Says:
   July 12th, 2011 at 5:19 am

   I saw Bernie Williams on this list and started looking through his stats, he was a damn fine ball player, I'm going to say he was better than Johnny Damon. I think Bernie should be in the HoF. He looks to have a lot of the newstats the SABRmeters like, why is he not seriously discussed for the hall? He played on 6 world series teams, winning 4. He had 22 playoff HR's and good all around numbers in the playoffs. He was an excellent fielder. His career was cut short under some suspicious circumstances.

8. Timmy p Says:
   July 12th, 2011 at 6:38 am

   I see Joe Carter and Gary Carter both on this list with 11 and 14 games respectively. Those 2 are like peas and carrots. Very similar offensive numbers for those 2 guys. Gary walked just a little more and Joe had more speed. I'm going to do some more research and see if they're relations.

9. Timmy p Says:
   July 12th, 2011 at 6:51 am

   Wow, Gary and Joe are not relations, but they have almost the same number of PA's, and that makes for an interesting comparison. Clearly Joe was a better hitter than Gary as his slugging percentage was 25 points higher, Joe had over 500 more TB's and blew Gary away on total number of XBH, and of course Joe had more HR's. But Gary was a catcher so he was probably tired a lot. As mentioned both players had low OBP numbers, but Gary did manage to squeeze out a few more walks than Joe, but that's not too hard.

10. Timmy p Says:
    July 12th, 2011 at 7:11 am

    You know what else is peculiar? On the fan-elorater you have Gary Carter at 85 just ahead of Sam Crawford and George Sisler. Meanwhile Joe Carter is at 394 just behind Lonnie Smith and Willie McGhee. Might want to check to see if someone is stuffing the ballot box.

11. Gerry Says:
    July 12th, 2011 at 8:26 am

    @10, if two players are comparable hitters and one is a catcher and the other contributes little on defense, don't you reckon the catcher rates considerably higher?

12. Timmy p Says:
    July 12th, 2011 at 8:40 am

    @11 Oh you betcha Gerry, no doubt about it. But seeing how Joe Carter is the brunt of a lot of jokes here, and the reason for the negativity is his hitting, I thought for fun I'd find someone with comparable hitting stats, and I'd actually say Joe is a better hitter than Gary based on just about the same ABs.

13. Dr. Doom Says:
    July 12th, 2011 at 9:35 am

    @12

    Ummm... Gary and Joe Carter's hitting stats aren't all that similar. Joe Carter managed a 115 OPS+ four times - 1986, 1988, 1991, and 1992. Gary Carter topped a 115 OPS+ eight times - 1977, 1979, 1980, and 1982-1986.

    Joe hit home runs more often (4.3% to 3.6%), but he countered that with miserable SO and BB rates (15.2% and 5.8%, respectively; Gary's were 11.1% and 9.4%). Joe has a 25 point advantage in SLG, but Gary has a 29 point advantage in OBP, which is about twice as important. So really, I wouldn't say the two were all that close. Especially when one factors in defense, as Gerry mentions above.

    Finally, it's not really that Joe Carter was a bad hitter. He was a good hitter. The reason he's a whipping boy around here is that he was vastly overrated in his time because of his high RBI totals, which drastically overrated his ability as compared to his other stats, and he got a reputation as a "clutch" hitter. In the New Bill James Historical Abstract, Bill James compares Barry Bonds's clutch numbers to Joe Carter's, and ultimately determines that, if anything, Bonds (this would be Bonds through the 2001 season, when he was known as a choker) was the better clutch performer. So really, what's being knocked here most of the time is not Joe Carter the hitter, but rather Joe Carter's reputation as a ballplayer. He was definitely good. Just not as good as his RBI numbers and famous Game 6 home run would have one believe.

14. Timmy p Says:
    July 12th, 2011 at 9:48 am

    Joe has more 2b, 3b, HR, RBI's, SB, TB, and by healthy margins. Gary Carter allowed more than 90 SB nine times, his defense was highly overrated. The only hitting stats that I see Gary Carter being better at is walks and newstats.

15. scott Says:
    July 12th, 2011 at 10:51 am

    @ 13 Did Bill James compare called strikes in his clutch hitting comparison between Bonds & Carter ? As pointed out by Mustachioed Repetition yesterday Joe Carter had only 22% called strikes against him versus a league average of 37%. That is a very low total for a guy who only got 86 career IBB's. Bonds got 688 career IBB's. It seems to me you wold want a low percentage of called strikes in the clutch situations.

16. Mustachioed Repetition Says:
    July 12th, 2011 at 11:36 am

    Gary Carter allowed more than 90 SB nine times, his defense was highly overrated.

    Glad to see you jumping on my numbers when you think they suit your case.

    Carter's career occurred during the highest SB years of the liveball era. I didn't break it down, but I'm guessing he allowed fewer SB per inning than average for those years, in addition to throwing out a high percentage of runners (at least during the first half of his career). When I have a chance later I will try to get the actual data. (Of course others can always help me out with these tasks........)

17. Timmy p Says:
    July 12th, 2011 at 11:40 am

    @16 Let me credit Twisto with that stat. He dug it up, it's his.

18. Timmy p Says:
    July 12th, 2011 at 11:45 am

    I'm trying to make the Carter v Carter batting comparison, I'm not really concerned with Gary's defensive stats. Twisto if you think Gary Carter is a better hitter than Joe, please say so. Forget the positions for this argument.

19. Mustachioed Repetition Says:
    July 12th, 2011 at 12:00 pm

    Let me credit Twisto with that stat. He dug it up, it's his.

    I'm not asking for credit. I'm saying you have a tendency to ignore facts which aren't consistent with your opinions.

    if you think Gary Carter is a better hitter than Joe, please say so

    I think Gary Carter was a better hitter than Joe.

20. DavidRF Says:
    July 12th, 2011 at 12:01 pm

    @17
    This is like shooting fish in a barrel here. We all know how to go to Gary Carter's player page and look at the leaderboard section and see that he led the league in many good fielding stats like assists, CS, CS% several times. He does well in advanced metrics, too, as well as having three Gold Gloves.

    Offensively, are we allowed to notice that although the two Carter's careers overlapped for quite a bit, Gary's extended earlier in low offense times (1974-1982) while Joe's extended later in high offense times (1993-98)? That makes Gary's advantage more impressive. Which we can see if we're allowed to look at OPS+.

    I feel like we're not allowed to use our brains to refute your biased preconceptions, so what's the point. 😉

21. Timmy p Says:
    July 12th, 2011 at 12:09 pm

    I do not think Gary was a better hitter than Joe.

22. Timmy p Says:
    July 12th, 2011 at 12:12 pm

    @20 David surely you can not explain away Joe's 2b, 3b, HR, RBI, SB, and slug away as just a product of a different era? You sound like John Autin, and he can explain everything away on era differences.

23. DavidRF Says:
    July 12th, 2011 at 12:22 pm

    @22
    Actually, I can. Gary slugged .439 in .388 leagues... or 13.1% above. Joe slugged .464 in .411 leagues or 12.9% above. Its close, though.

    If you can't tell the difference between baseball in 1980 and baseball in 1995, then you don't know much about baseball. Get your head out of the stat books and watch a game once in a while. 😉

24. Artie Z Says:
    July 12th, 2011 at 12:25 pm

    Gary also hit more singles than Joe. And Gary made more than 300 fewer outs than Joe, even when accounting for the additional double plays that Gary hit into.

    So that's 318 extra outs for Joe with only 135 extra PAs. So if you give Gary 135 more PAs and make him go 0-135, then you still need to adjust his stats to add in an extra 183 more outs.

    And in my mind that's the difference between the two, the outs made. And it's why I think Gary's a more valuable offensive player than Joe, so that if I had to choose one of them to play 1B or RF on my team I would choose Gary.

    It's not a Babe Ruth vs. Mario Mendoza gap between them, it's a tiny little gap, maybe like the gap between Ruth and Gehrig or Ruth and Williams or Gehrig and Williams or something like that.

25. topper009 Says:
    July 12th, 2011 at 12:40 pm

    "it's a tiny little gap, maybe like the gap between Ruth and Gehrig or Ruth and Williams or Gehrig and Williams or something like that."

    Is this implying Gehrig was better than Williams? I will have to disagree with that, big time. Williams is better in every category and he missed 5 YEARS in his prime. Gehrig missed likely productive seasons from ages 35-40

26. Doug Says:
    July 12th, 2011 at 12:48 pm

    And, now for something completely frivolous, Gary and Joe Carter hold the record for most career HRs for two players named Carter, at the time they appeared in the same game.

    http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/SDN/SDN199009030.shtml
    Joe(172) Gary (312) Total (484).

    Which pair of players holds the record for any common last name? And, when did they last appear in the same game?

27. Mustachioed Repetition Says:
    July 12th, 2011 at 12:53 pm

    Darrell and Dwight Evans some time in the mid-late '80s?

28. Mustachioed Repetition Says:
    July 12th, 2011 at 12:54 pm

    Actually, it's probably something like Hank and Tommy Aaron in 1971.

29. Mustachioed Repetition Says:
    July 12th, 2011 at 12:55 pm

    No, looks like the Evanses would be ahead.

    OK, I'll let someone else guess.

30. topper009 Says:
    July 12th, 2011 at 12:55 pm

    Umm, Bonds

31. Doug Says:
    July 12th, 2011 at 1:08 pm

    Haven't got it yet.

    Hint: both guys are still active.

32. DavidRF Says:
    July 12th, 2011 at 1:12 pm

    @31
    Chipper and Andruw? It would have been last year at some time.

    Are they ahead of Brooks & Frank?

33. DavidRF Says:
    July 12th, 2011 at 1:22 pm

    @31
    Oh... its probably Alex and Ivan. A couple of years ago now.

34. topper009 Says:
    July 12th, 2011 at 1:42 pm

    Fielder (Cecil, Prince) = 533 and counting
    Simmons (Bucketfoot, Ted) = 555
    Martinez (Gar, Tino) = 648
    Howard (Frank, Ryan) = 653 and counting
    Lee (Carlos, Derrek) = 659
    Vaughn (Greg, Mo) = 683
    Jackson (Reggie, Bo) = 734
    Aaron (Hank, other) = 768
    Griffey (Jr, Sr) = 782
    Gonzalez (Juan, Luis) = 788
    Thomas (Gorman, Hurt) = 789
    Evans (Dewey, Darrell) = 799
    Robinson (Frank, Brooks) = 854
    Jones (Chipper, Andrew) = 855 and counting
    Ramirez (Manny, Aramis) = 859
    Rodriguez (A, I) = 937 and counting
    Williams (Ted, Billy) = 947
    Bonds (Bobby, Elbow armor) = 1094

    Close but no cigar,
    Willie Mays + Lee May = 1014

    Not sure what you are talking about @31, the answer is Bonds

35. Mustachioed Repetition Says:
    July 12th, 2011 at 1:58 pm

    You're not answering the right question.

36. topper009 Says:
    July 12th, 2011 at 2:03 pm

    "Which pair of players holds the record for any common last name?

    Answer = Bobby and Barry Bonds

    "And, when did they last appear in the same game?"

    Answer = never

37. topper009 Says:
    July 12th, 2011 at 2:11 pm

    Ooo, for HR at time of playing in same game, A and I Rods

    http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/NYA/NYA200908260.shtml

    A(575) + I(303) = 878

    This alone is 3rd place all time, and Billy + Ted Never played in the same game and the Bonds' didnt pull a Griffey and play in the same game either.

38. topper009 Says:
    July 12th, 2011 at 2:39 pm

    Frank and Brooks last appeared in this game together:

    http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/CLE/CLE197609182.shtml

    This was actually Frank's last career game and Brooks would only hit 1 more HR after this game

    Brooks (267) + Frank (586) = 853
    ______________________________________________
    The Jones' last played in the same game together here:

    http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/CHA/CHA201006240.shtml

    Chipper (430) + Andrew (398) = 828
    _______________________________________________
    Manny and Aramis Ramirez missed each other in 2010, Aramis missing the May CHC-LAD series and Manny missing the July series. Their last contest was this game:

    http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/LAN/LAN200908230.shtml

    Manny (540) + Aramis (259) = 799
    ______________________________________________
    The last Evans matchup was this game, where they combined to go 5-8:

    http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/BOS/BOS198808140.shtml

    Dewey (337) + Darrell (395) = 732

39. DavidRF Says:
    July 12th, 2011 at 2:46 pm

    Wow, I didn't know Aramis Ramirez had 300 HR's already, but Manny's retired now.

40. topper009 Says:
    July 12th, 2011 at 2:50 pm

    If you count Willie Mays and Lee May, they last met in this game:

    http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/HOU/HOU197307220.shtml

    Willie, in his last season with the Mets, would only hit 2 more HRs (658) and Lee had 191 HRs midway through his career

    Total = 849

41. topper009 Says:
    July 12th, 2011 at 3:01 pm

    Next season will be NL East vs AL East for interleauge, so its likely the Yankees will play the Braves and Nats. We can probably expect A-Rod to play in all of these games but Chipper may be retired/hurt and Pudge and Andrew are not regulars. If only Andrew and Chipper appear together they would need to combine for 23 HRs between now and next June/July which seems doable for them to overtake the Rods. If the Rods appear together they will extend their record to probably something like 960 HRs at the time of appearing in the same game

42. Doug Says:
    July 12th, 2011 at 3:18 pm

    I-Rod and A-Rod is correct.

    And, Topper009 has the last game they played against each other. But, they may yet meet again next year.

    Here are all the pairs with 500+ combined HRs.

    2009-08-26, Rodriguez (878), Alex (575), Ivan (303)
    1976-09-18, Robinson (853), Frank (586), Brooks (267)
    2010-06-24, Jones (828), Chipper (430), Andruw (398)
    2009-08-23, Ramirez (799), Manny (540), Aramis (259)
    1988-08-14, Evans (732), Darrell (395), Dwight (337)
    1971-09-26, Aaron (652), Hank (639), Tommie (13)
    2004-08-25, Martinez (625), Tino (319), Edgar (306)
    2010-07-27, Lee (623), Carlos (319), Derrek (304)
    2000-09-13, Vaughn (616), Greg (319), Mo (297)
    1998-09-20, Davis (597), Chili (331), Eric (266)
    1987-06-22, Jackson (572), Reggie (556), Bo (16)
    2005-06-15, Palmeiro (569), Rafael (559), Orlando (10)
    1960-09-10, Williams (569), Ted (519), Dick (50)
    2001-11-04, Williams (569), Matt (362), Bernie (207)
    2008-04-18,Thomas (516), Frank (516), Clete (0)
    1989-07-09, Murphy (501), Dale (340), Dwayne (161)

    .

43. topper009 Says:
    July 12th, 2011 at 3:36 pm

    You missed:

    2010-09-29, Ramirez (608), Manny (555), Alexei (53)

44. Mustachioed Repetition Says:
    July 12th, 2011 at 4:02 pm

    On Gary Carter's defense:

    He became a regular in 1975 and played in Montreal through 1984. Over those 10 seasons, he caught 9640.2 innings. He allowed 757 SB, caught 474 base stealers, and picked off 37. He allowed 48 passed balls and 291 wild pitches.

    Compared to the average of all other NL catchers, given the same number of innings, Carter allowed 128 fewer SB, caught 120 more, picked off 18 more, allowed 45 fewer PB and 4 more WP. Overall, that's 169 fewer base advancements and 138 more outs. If I'm applying linear weights correctly, that's worth in the ballpark of 90 runs, 9 per season. (And that's in the neighborhood of Total Zone's evaluation of +114 for those seasons.)

    Obviously all these numbers are also affected by the pitchers, but I don't see any doubt that in the easily measurable components of catcher defense, Carter was well above average during his Expo years.

45. topper009 Says:
    July 12th, 2011 at 4:07 pm

    Another one you missed:
    2011-07-03, Rodriguez (626), Alex (626), Francisco (0)

    A few close ones:

    2002-06-18, Gonzalez (490), Juan (401), Alex I (89)
    2003-06-15, Gonzalez (468), Juan (423), Alex II (45)
    1999-07-17, Gonzalez (447), Juan (326), Luis (121)
    1990-09-26, Clark (423), Jack (306), Will (117)

46. Doug Says:
    July 12th, 2011 at 4:53 pm

    Topper009,

    Thanks for the other ones for Rodriguez, Ramirez, Gonzalez (what's with those z's).

    Here's some more I've found:

    2005-09-17, Walker (478), Larry (381), Todd (97)
    1975-08-28, Williams (443), Billy (411), Walt (32)
    1951-09-28, DiMaggio (442), Joe (361), Dom (81)
    1963-09-29, Mathews (428), Eddie (422), Nelson (6)
    1979-08-26, May (394), Lee (342), Milt (52)
    1968-07-28, Howard (392), Frank (226), Elston (166)
    1998-04-12, Ripken (392), Cal (372), Billy (20)
    1974-05-20, Cash (373), Norm (373), Ron (0)
    2010-09-26, Dunn (353), Adam (353), Michael (0)
    1990-09-08, Parker (327), Dave (327), Clay (0)
    1974-07-31, Allen (315), Dick (314), Lloyd (1)
    2003-07-26, Giambi (308), Jason (256), Jeremy (52)
    1976-09-18, Perez (295), Tony (275), Marty (20)
    2009-07-07, Soriano (284), Alfonso (284), Rafael (0)
    2003-06-05, Delgado (283), Carlos (279), Wilson (3)
    2004-08-22, Green (278), Shawn (275), Nick (3)
    2004-08-25, Guerrero (273), Vladimir (262), Wilton (11)
    1994-07-23, McGriff (258), Fred (255), Terry (3)
    2006-10-01, Ortiz (231), David (231), Russ (6)
    1984-09-24, Murray (226), Eddie (226), Dale (0)
    2002-06-19, Kent (225), Jeff (225), Steven (0)
    1970-06-28, Horton (224), Willie (156), Tony (68)
    1991-05-31, Griffey (196), Ken Jr. (44), Ken Sr. (152)
    1990-07-28, Canseco (159), Jose (159), Ozzie (0)
    1974-09-14, Nettles (139), Graig (123), Jim (16)
    1977-08-25, Foster (123), George (121), Leo (2)

47. Doug Says:
    July 12th, 2011 at 5:12 pm

    Fat fingers,

    - Delgado total should be 282.
    - Ortiz total should be 237.

    I was really surprised by Eddie Murray - that I had to go back so early in his career to find any game he played with another Murray.

48. Timmy p Says:
    July 12th, 2011 at 7:12 pm

    Gary had more singles, that's true.

49. John Autin Says:
    July 12th, 2011 at 9:55 pm

    @41, Topper009 -- Aren't you looking a little too far ahead there? I think it's better than even money that neither Andruw Jones nor Ivan Rodriguez will be with his current team next year.

50. AutomaticGainsay Says:
    July 13th, 2011 at 1:42 am

    @21

    You're wrong.

51. Doug Says:
    July 13th, 2011 at 2:18 am

    @49.

    Good thought, John.

    Andruw has been with a different team every year since he left the Braves after the '07 season.

    This his I-Rod's second season with the Nats, but he was with four different teams in '08 and '09.

52. Doug Says:
    July 13th, 2011 at 2:39 am

    @49.

    If I-Rod does catch again next year, I believe he may be the first player ever to catch a game as a teenager and also aged 40+.

    Rick Dempsey just missed - he caught his first game aged 20 years, 10 days.

    Anyone know any other catchers who did this?

53. Doug Says:
    July 13th, 2011 at 3:11 am

    @52.

    Well, I-Rod may be almost the first teenage and 40+ catcher.

    Cap Anson did catch as a 19-year old in his first season, and in his last and next-to-last seasons, aged 44-45. But, not really the same thing as what I-Rod may accomplish.

    For his career, Anson caught only 105 games, less than 5% of his games played. He caught 10+ games only 5 times, including his final two seasons.

54. thom-13 Says:
    July 14th, 2011 at 9:40 pm

    aLI and RE24? What do these mean? I see a lot of these in the blog archive, but they are rarely referenced. Is there a place in baseball-reference.com where these are clearly defined. Could/Should we provide a link when they are used?

    Of course, at what point do we need to do it? I have no issues with WHIP and OPS+, but I regularly explain OPS at the ball park and I'm not sure my dad has mastered ERA yet.

55. Mustachioed Repetition Says:
    July 14th, 2011 at 11:12 pm

    Thom, those stats are defined here:
    http://www.baseball-reference.com/about/wpa.shtml

    aLI refers to Average Leverage Index. Leverage Index (LI) is a measurement of how important a particular plate appearance is toward determining the eventual outcome of the game. By definition, the average leverage is 1.0. Batting with 2 outs in the bottom of the 9th when down by 15 runs is a low-leverage situation. Batting with 2 outs in the bottom of the 9th with the bases loaded is a very high-leverage situation. LI quantifies that. aLI would be the average of a player's LI over the course of the game.

    RE24 stands for Run Expectancy based on the 24 base-out states possible during an inning. When there is, for example, one out and a runner on 2nd, the average team is expected to score X runs from that point to the end of the inning. Once the batter's PA is finished, there is a new base-out state, from which the average team would be expected to score Y runs until the end of the inning. RE24 measures how many more (or fewer) expected runs than average the player gave his team based on the results of his plate appearances.

    You're probably right that these terms could be explained more often. I think of this as sort of a Saber 101 site, more for the fan with general interest in stats than hardcore saber knowledge. As readers stick around, hopefully they pick this stuff up, but I guess there's always new visitors. Anyway, if there's ever something readers don't understand, they should feel free to ask away and hopefully someone here can explain it clearly.

56. Mustachioed Repetition Says:
    July 14th, 2011 at 11:16 pm

    Batting with 2 outs in the bottom of the 9th with the bases loaded is a very high-leverage situation.

    That should say, when tied or down by just a couple runs.