Keeping Score: Posada Put Off Decline for Years – NYTimes.com
Posted by Neil Paine on May 20, 2011
Keeping Score: Posada Put Off Decline for Years – NYTimes.com
In this week's NY Times piece, I look at how impressive it is that Jorge Posada managed to last this long before finally showing his age.
May 20th, 2011 at 1:40 pm
Some time ago, I made an argument in the blogs on this web site that Jorge Posada deserved serious consideration for the HOF....and I took a lot of flak from other poters who told me that I didnt know anything about baseball.
Posada isnt Johnny Bench or Yogi Berra but he was the satarting catcher on 14 Yankee playoff teams............. 14!!!! he caught a lot of WINS and he was a good to very good hitter...for a catcher. .And my argumet was that for a CATCHER and that he had lasted so long, he deserved consideration. I didnt have the stats....but Neil the analyst made my points far better then I did,
It isnt Posada that is in decline. no one in the Yankee lineup is hititng with any real success...(maybe Granderson).......It seems to be a team in decline.
May 20th, 2011 at 1:45 pm
@1, Dennis -- Posada absolutely deserves serious HOF consideration. I'm not sure I'd vote for him, but I'd think long and hard about it.
It would be an easier choice if he'd been a little better defensively.
May 20th, 2011 at 3:05 pm
Neil, good article.
I have a question about this paragraph:
"Relative to the league average, Posada owns the best cumulative O.P.S. among catchers from age 31 to 38, and none of his contemporaries are even in the neighborhood. The closest catchers to Posada’s mark? Gabby Hartnett and Ernie Lombardi, both of whom retired more than 60 years ago."
I just did a P-I search for OPS+ of catchers age 31-38 (min. 2,000 PAs). The results:
-- 128, Posada
-- 127, Piazza
-- 127, Hartnett
-- 124, Lombardi
-- 124, Dickey
Any idea why Piazza and Dickey didn't show up in your comparison? Did you perhaps have more requirements than were stated explicitly in the passage?
Piazza was a regular catcher through age 37. He caught at least 50 games every year but his last (age 38), and he had only one other year in which C was not his primary position (2004, the abortive shift to 1B with the Mets at age 35). For age 31-38, Piazza caught 690 games, an average of 86 per season.
Even if we take out Piazza's final season, as a DH, he had more PAs in his catching seasons from age 31 onward than did Lombardi. In his last season behind the plate, age 37, Piazza caught 99 games and had a 122 OPS+.
Dickey is a trickier case, as he didn't play at all at age 37-38 (then came back for a cameo at 39, and hit well). Dickey totaled 609 games caught from age 31-36, an average of 101 per year.
Just wondering. Thanks!
May 20th, 2011 at 3:11 pm
Yeah, it was minimum 2500 PA, 75% of games at catcher.
May 20th, 2011 at 3:13 pm
Posada did not become a regular until he was 26 years old. That is extremely rare for a very good to great player. It also may be related to his excellence aged 31-38 as mentioned in the article.
May 20th, 2011 at 3:17 pm
Posada certainly belongs in the hall of the famous very good players. His post-season appearances is noteworthy. But when the #1 on your similarity score is Javy Lopez I'd say your chances at the hall of fame are very slim.
May 20th, 2011 at 3:19 pm
The article could have been extended to cover several other Yankee players, though none of the others went (or have yet to go) so deep into their thirties as Posada has. This phenomenon is quite likely unique in baseball history...
May 20th, 2011 at 3:59 pm
@6, Doug B -- The fact that Javy Lopez stands atop Posada's Similarity Scores does not necessarily mean that he is "similar" to Posada for the purpose of HOF discussion. The actual Similarity Score is what's relevant, not the ranking.
B-R lists the top 10 Similarity Scores for every player, regardless of the numbers. But only the scores themselves actually describe similarity (of stats).
For example, Barry Bonds is #1 on Babe Ruth's Similarity Scores. But the score is just 739; for most players, that wouldn't even make their top 20. This is one indication of the Babe's uniqueness.
Javy Lopez and Jorge Posada have a similarity score of 878. Most players have at least 1 similarity score over 900, I believe. Posada and Lopez are only moderately similar.
Another thing to keep in mind is that Similarity Scores are based 100% on raw stats. There is no adjustment for the league context or the home parks.
http://www.baseball-reference.com/about/similarity.shtml
May 20th, 2011 at 4:08 pm
Further to the question of similarity between Posada and Javy Lopez:
Career WAR:
-- Posada, 45.8
-- Lopez, 27.9
Career OPS+:
-- Posada, 122
-- Lopez, 112
BTW, the WAR difference is all in offense. They rate almost the same on defense, -2.7 and -2.6, respectively.
May 20th, 2011 at 4:15 pm
In fact, in many ways Lopez was the anti-Posada. Posada never had a single insane year by conventional stats like Lopez had in 2003, but he was almost always a 4-6 WAR player year in and year out. Meanwhile Lopez was usually a 2-3 WAR player who had one fluke year with 6.6 WAR in 2003, after looking like he was toast the previous 2 years.
May 20th, 2011 at 4:25 pm
I was joking. The point not being they were identical... but if a guy's highest similarity score is to Spike Owen I'm guessing he's not going to make it into the HOF.
Posada is a very good but not HOF player.
I was trying to be a bit funny. Maybe I should have added an LOL.
May 20th, 2011 at 4:40 pm
Seems a bit strange to me that D. Porter made it into the "The Hall of Peak Weighted War" and Posada did not. Maybe not too surprising, Porter does have that 8.4 War year. According the BBR voting, fans rate Posada much better than Porter.
Pretty amazing that he performed so well at catcher until the "old age" of 38. HA HA, that seems so young. Looking back, I was just a kid at that age. If I had been a Yankee and a millionaire . . . wow . . .
May 20th, 2011 at 8:51 pm
I've always been a bit suspicious that Posada was able to last so long and be so production. Maybe he kept himself in great shape, and maybe his late start helped extend his career. Many of his contemporaries and as it turns out many of his teammates had supplement help (steroids), so maybe Posada did too.
I know that it's not fair to make those accusations on someone who has never been caught doing it, but when you have 100+ years of baseball precedent, when someone does something that no one else has ever done (or done in many decades), it at least must be considered.
Regardless, Posada was a very good player on a bunch of good to great teams. But he was never the best or even 2nd best player on his own team. He's a Yankee great but not a HOF in my mind.
May 20th, 2011 at 10:14 pm
@1
Dennis, whaddya mean Posada is not in decline? His individual performance this season has nothing to do with the rest of the Yankees line-up.
Your assesrtion that Jorge Posada deserves HOF consideration is reckless and an attempt at grandstanding. You are a fan, not an objective observer.
The fact that he played on 14 Yankee playoff teams is irrelevant, it is a function of big-market money. With the same numbers, would he have played in as many post-season games with Seattle?
May 21st, 2011 at 1:44 am
I don't think Posada is HOF caliber, and find myself agreeing with Neil.
May 22nd, 2011 at 7:33 pm
Neil
What I meant to write it isnt that ONLY Posada is in decline, it seems oto be most of the 2011 Yanlees.
One of the reasons that those 14 teans were good to great teams was Posada....
Obvioulsy Jeter and A Rod and Clemens but not only what he did for the Yankees (and assuming they both withstand PED charges)....Clemens and A Rod and Mariano Riveria are HOFers.
I also think Posada was a KEY contributor to many great teams in the physically hardest position to playt
Here s a parallel. Between 1947 and 1966, the Dodgers won ten pennants and were in one sudden death playoff. Jackie Robinson, Roy Campanella, Duke Snider, Sandy Koufax, Walter Alston as the manager from 1955 on , Pee Wee Reese and Don Drysdale are in the HOF.
Remember the first baseman on the 47, 49, 42, 53, 55, 56 and 59 teams? A key offensive contributor and he s not in the HOF, (I htinks he should be)...
and the Dodgers didnt even retire Number 14!!!!!!
I see Posada somewhat in the same way as Gil Hodges. And I would like to see the Yankees retire Number 20..when he s done...which they wont .
You used the adjective RECKLESS and GRANSTANDING to describe my opinion that Posada should be given consideration for the HOF.. I didnt say he should be elected, i said he should be given serious consideration...as a CATCHER, physically the hardest position to play in baseball.
The BBWAA has laid some considerable eggs over the years in their one and out rejections of players...and catchers.
Does the name Ted Simmons ring any bells for you?.
RECKLESS refers to without consideration of the consquences.
Come on, we re talking about baseball......not about life or death...its you who are GRANDSTANDING
Even though Im a fan, I like to think I m objective, at least as objective as some of the members of the BWAA.
I would have voted for Simmons and I owuld put Posada on my ballot at least the first year. .
May 23rd, 2011 at 11:18 am
That's a good comparison to Ted Simmons. I think Ted was a better player than Posada. Not tremendously better but better. He generally had a tougher hitting environment.
I'd consider Simmons a borderline HOF player that I probably would vote for. Posada to me falls short. But sure... I think it is fair to say you should consider him anyway.
Aside from Piazza and Ivan Rodriquez there are no real HOF candidates of the era at this position. I don't see Jason Kendall staying on the ballot for more than a few years. There are some fine catchers still in their 20's now but I'm not talking about those guys. So Posada is certainly worthy of being considered. I think he'll maintain his 5% minimum but doubt he'll ever get past 30 or 40 percent of the vote.
May 23rd, 2011 at 11:24 am
Re: Ted Simmons
remarkable that he was only on the HOF ballot for 1 year and failed to get 5%. Bob Boone stayed on the ballot for 5 years and Ted Simmons was 1 and done? Amazing.
May 23rd, 2011 at 2:28 pm
@16
Dennis, I apologize. Upon reflection, my adjectives "reckless" and "grandstanding" were poor in description of your post @1. It didn't treat your ideas with respect and you subsequently made a number of good points @16.
I tend to get full of myself and shoot from the lip..... too often. My reaction was not well thought-out. There is indeed plenty of room for HOF worthiness debate about many players, Posada included.
May 23rd, 2011 at 7:40 pm
Neil L.
Thank you for the graceful apology. As I said we re talking baseball.....
I don t tthink Posada will get in, certainly not as a BBWA selection...I doubt if he ll ever get substantial support say more then 15 or 20% in the 15 years, his numbers aren t glamorous and he hasnt got any MYP hardware. I just think his record of the catcher of 14 playoff teams is something exeptional.
On the other hand between them Roger Maris, Dale Murphy and Juan Gonzales have 6 MVPs and none of them are getting in....
BUT Roy Campanella is in, played ten years and I would doubt if any position player in the HOF has LESS lifetime hits Campanella had 1161 hiits and seasons where he hit .207 and ,219, but also three MVP seasons.
Sometimes I think there is no rhyme of reason to chosoing players. The Boone vs Simmons comparison was very good.....and anyone remember a very fine catcher? .Jim Hegan of the Indians=
.I dont think Hegan was a HOFer, he was a defenisve mainstay of all those very good Indians teams but he didnt hit enoigh......but he didnt get much support..... two years on the ballot and out
I think Ted Simmons would have been a good choice and he s somewhere on my list of eggs laid by the BWAA. I do think carchers should be measured a bit differently then other positions because of the dififculty factor in playing the position..
Now that Blyleven will be inducted this year, my list of bad mistakes by the BBWA includes Gil Hodges, Ron Santo, Ted Simmons and Luis Tiant. I . .
I also have a weakness for Tommy John, Tony Oliva and Dwight Evans, but I can be talked out of them, fairly easily.
Posters have advanced arguments for Lou Whittaker and Alan Trammell, With respect. I dont think so.